Comparison of mid-Pliocene climate predictions produced by the HadAM3 and GCMAM3 General Circulation Models

The mid-Pliocene warm period (ca. 3 to 3.3 million years ago) has become an important interval of time for palaeoclimate modelling exercises, with a large number of studies published during the last decade. However, there has been no attempt to assess the degree of model dependency of the results obtained. Here we present an initial comparison of mid-Pliocene climatologies produced by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research atmosphere-only General Circulation Models (GCMAM3 and HadAM3). Whilst both models are consistent in the simulation of broad-scale differences in mid-Pliocene surface air temperature and total precipitation rates, significant variation is noted on regional and local scales. There are also significant differences in the model predictions of total cloud cover. A terrestrial data/model comparison, facilitated by the BIOME 4 model and a new data set of Piacenzian Stage land cover [Salzmann, U., Haywood, A.M., Lunt, D.J., Valdes, P.J., Hill, D.J., (2008). A new global biome reconstruction and data model comparison for the Middle Pliocene. Global Ecology and Biogeography 17, 432-447, doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2007.00381.x] and combined with the use of Kappa statistics, indicates that HadAM3-based biome predictions provide a closer fit to proxy data in the mid to high-latitudes. However, GCMAM3-based biomes in the tropics provide the closest fit to proxy data.     

Geological evaluation of climate General Circulation Models and model implications for Mesozoic cloud cover

General Circulation Models (GCMs) are currently used to predict future global change. However, the robustness of GCMs can, and should, be evaluated by their ability to simulate past climate regimes. Their success in ‘retrodiction’ can then be assessed by reference to the testimony of the geological record. Geological evidence provides a database which can be used in the estimation of sea surface temperatures and other proxy data useful in palaeoclimatic studies. These data can then be used to refine the prescribed boundary conditions for running GCMs themselves. Results of modelling experiments confirm a generally warmer Mesozoic earth with arid tropics and convective rainfall higher over the oceans than at present. Circum-polar wetlands are also indicated. Modelled cloudiness is also higher in the Mesozoic, contributing to greenhouse conditions and possibly influencing terrestrial biomes and marine ecosystems.     

Study of parallel diffusion of energetic particles in the interplanetary medium using spacecraft data at 1 and 5 AU

Energetic particle (1–100 MeV) pitch angle scattering in the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) is studied using spacecraft magnetometer data at 1 AU (IMP 7 and HEOS 2) and at 5 AU (Pioneer 10). Particle trajectories are followed by a computer simulation of their movement in a realistic model of the IMF. Determination of the pitch angle diffusion coefficient at 1 AU (D ) leads to a parallel mean free path which is roughly independent of particle energy, 0.03 AU. At the lowest energy our result is at least a factor of 3 larger than the predictions of quasi linear theory. Results at 5 AU lead to a radial mean free path which is between 2 to 6 times smaller than at 1 AU, probably indicating a greater importance for perpendicular diffusion at large heliodistances. In fact a roughly constant radial mean free path ( _r 0.01 AU) is obtained when the contribution of perpendicular diffusion at 5 AU is taken into account (Moussaset al., 1981).     

The climatic impact of supervolcanic ash blankets

Supervolcanoes are large caldera systems that can expel vast quantities of ash, volcanic gases in a single eruption, far larger than any recorded in recent history. These super-eruptions have been suggested as possible catalysts for long-term climate change and may be responsible for bottlenecks in human and animal populations. Here, we consider the previously neglected climatic effects of a continent-sized ash deposit with a high albedo and show that a decadal climate forcing is expected. We use a coupled atmosphere-ocean General Circulation Model (GCM) to simulate the effect of an ash blanket from Yellowstone volcano, USA, covering much of North America. Reflectivity measurements of dry volcanic ash show albedo values as high as snow, implying that the effects of an ash blanket would be severe. The modeling results indicate major disturbances to the climate, particularly to oscillatory patterns such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Atmospheric disruptions would continue for decades after the eruption due to extended ash blanket longevity. The climatic response to an ash blanket is not significant enough to instigate a change to stadial periods at present day boundary conditions, though this is one of several impacts associated with a super-eruption which may induce long-term climatic change.     

Past and future polar amplification of climate change: climate model intercomparisons and ice-core constraints

Climate model simulations available from the PMIP1, PMIP2 and CMIP (IPCC-AR4) intercomparison projects for past and future climate change simulations are examined in terms of polar temperature changes in comparison to global temperature changes and with respect to pre-industrial reference simulations. For the mid-Holocene (MH, 6,000 years ago), the models are forced by changes in the Earth’s orbital parameters. The MH PMIP1 atmosphere-only simulations conducted with sea surface temperatures fixed to modern conditions show no MH consistent response for the poles, whereas the new PMIP2 coupled atmosphere–ocean climate models systematically simulate a significant MH warming both for Greenland (but smaller than ice-core based estimates) and Antarctica (consistent with the range of ice-core based range). In both PMIP1 and PMIP2, the MH annual mean changes in global temperature are negligible, consistent with the MH orbital forcing. The simulated last glacial maximum (LGM, 21,000 years ago) to pre-industrial change in global mean temperature ranges between 3 and 7°C in PMIP1 and PMIP2 model runs, similar to the range of temperature change expected from a quadrupling of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations in the CMIP simulations. Both LGM and future climate simulations are associated with a polar amplification of climate change. The range of glacial polar amplification in Greenland is strongly dependent on the ice sheet elevation changes prescribed to the climate models. All PMIP2 simulations systematically underestimate the reconstructed glacial–interglacial Greenland temperature change, while some of the simulations do capture the reconstructed glacial–interglacial Antarctic temperature change. Uncertainties in the prescribed central ice cap elevation cannot account for the temperature change underestimation by climate models. The variety of climate model sensitivities enables the exploration of the relative changes in polar temperature with respect to changes in global temperatures. Simulated changes of polar temperatures are strongly related to changes in simulated global temperatures for both future and LGM climates, confirming that ice-core-based reconstructions provide quantitative insights on global climate changes. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Synoptic-scale perturbations in AGCM simulations of the present and Last Glacial Maximum climates

 The conditions of development of mid-latitude depressions (synoptic eddies) in the winter Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 000 years ago) are very different from the present ones: this period is characterised by a general cooling of the extra-tropics, with massive ice sheets over the Northern Hemisphere continents and sea-ice extending very far south over the North Atlantic. The present work uses regression analysis to study the characteristics of the synoptic eddies in present-day and LGM climate simulations by the Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) of the UK Universities' Global Atmospheric Programme (UGAMP). In the LGM experiment, the structure of the Pacific eddies is similar to the present-day (PD) situation, but they are weaker. On the other hand, the Atlantic eddies show an increased zonal wavelength and a much shallower structure in the temperature and vertical wind perturbations. To understand the changes of these characteristics from present-day to LGM, we compare them to those computed for the most unstable modes of the corresponding mean flows, determined using a dry primitive equation model. A normal-mode stability analysis is carried both on zonally symmetric and asymmetric flows for each of the Northern Hemisphere storm-tracks. The changes in the most unstable normal modes found by both these analyses give a good account of changes in the structure of the perturbations as retrieved from the AGCM, suggesting that changes in the mean state (especially the temperature gradient) is the main driver of these changes. However in the case of the present-day Atlantic storm-track, the growth rate of these modes is found to be very low compared to the other cases. A complementary analysis evaluates the importance of non-modal growth, in the form of downstream development of perturbations, for each of the storm-tracks. This type of growth is found to be especially important in the case of the present-day Atlantic storm-track. Received: 29 September 1999 / Accepted: 17 November 1999     

Mesozoic climates: General circulation models and the rock record

General circulation models (GCMs) use the laws of physics and an understanding of past geography to simulate climatic responses. They are objective in character. However, they tend to require powerful computers to handle vast numbers of calculations. Nevertheless, it is now possible to compare results from different GCMs for a range of times and over a wide range of parameterisations for the past, present and future (e.g. in terms of predictions of surface air temperature, surface moisture, precipitation, etc.). GCMs are currently producing simulated climate predictions for the Mesozoic, which compare favourably with the distributions of climatically sensitive facies (e.g. coals, evaporites and palaeosols). They can be used effectively in the prediction of oceanic upwelling sites and the distribution of petroleum source rocks and phosphorites. Models also produce evaluations of other parameters that do not leave a geological record (e.g. cloud cover, snow cover) and equivocal phenomena such as storminess. Parameterisation of sub-grid scale processes is the main weakness in GCMs (e.g. land surfaces, convection, cloud behaviour) and model output for continental interiors is still too cold in winter by comparison with palaeontological data. The sedimentary and palaeontological record provides an important way that GCMs may themselves be evaluated and this is important because the same GCMs are being used currently to predict possible changes in future climate.

The Mesozoic Earth was, by comparison with the present, an alien world, as we illustrate here by reference to late Triassic, late Jurassic and late Cretaceous simulations. Dense forests grew close to both poles but experienced months-long daylight in warm summers and months-long darkness in cold snowy winters. Ocean depths were warm (8 °C or more to the ocean floor) and reefs, with corals, grew 10° of latitude further north and south than at the present time. The whole Earth was warmer than now by 6 °C or more, giving more atmospheric humidity and a greatly enhanced hydrological cycle. Much of the rainfall was predominantly convective in character, often focused over the oceans and leaving major desert expanses on the continental areas. Polar ice sheets are unlikely to have been present because of the high summer temperatures achieved. The model indicates extensive sea ice in the nearly enclosed Arctic seaway through a large portion of the year during the late Cretaceous, and the possibility of sea ice in adjacent parts of the Midwest Seaway over North America. The Triassic world was a predominantly warm world, the model output for evaporation and precipitation conforming well with the known distributions of evaporites, calcretes and other climatically sensitive facies for that time.

The message from the geological record is clear. Through the Phanerozoic, Earth's climate has changed significantly, both on a variety of time scales and over a range of climatic states, usually baldly referred to as “greenhouse” and “icehouse”, although these terms disguise more subtle states between these extremes. Any notion that the climate can remain constant for the convenience of one species of anthropoid is a delusion (although the recent rate of climatic change is exceptional).     

Ecological response to hurricane events in the Pamlico Sound system, North Carolina, and implications for assessment and management in a regime of increased frequency

Since the mid 1990s, the Atlantic and Gulf Coast regions have experienced a dramatic increase in the number of hurricane landfalls. In eastern North Carolina alone, eight hurricances have affected the coast in the past 9 years. These storms have exhibited individualistic hydrologic, nutrient, and sediment loading effects and represent a formidable challenge to nutrient management aimed at reducing eutrophication in the Pamlico Sound and its estuarine tributaries. Different rainfall amounts among hurricanes lead to variable freshwater and nutrient discharge and variable nutrient, organic matter, and sediment enrichment. These enrichments differentially affected physical and chemical properties (salinity, water residence time, transparency, stratification, dissolved oxygen), phytoplankton primary production, and phytoplankton community composition. Contrasting ecological responses were accompanied, by changes in nutrient and oxygen cycling, habitat, and higher trophic levels, including different direct effects on fish populations. Floodwaters from the two largest hurricances, Fran (1996) and Floyd (1999), exerted, multi-month to multi-annual effects on hydrology, nutrient loads, productivity, and biotic composition. Relatively low rainfall coastal hurricanes like Isabel (2003) and Ophelia (2005) caused strong vertical mixing and storm surges, but relatively minor hydrologic and nutrient effects. Both hydrologic loading and wind forcing are important drivers and must be integrated with nutrient loading in assessing short-term and long-term ecological effects of these storms. These climatic forcings cannot be managed but should be considered in the development of water quality management strategies for these and other large estuarine ecosystems faced with increasing frequencies and intensities of hurricane activity.