The Mid‐Brunhes Event and West Antarctic ice sheet stability

The complex cyclical nature of Pleistocene climate, driven by the evolving orbital configuration of the Earth, is well known but not well understood. A major climatic transition took place at the Mid‐Brunhes Event (MBE), ca. 430 ka ago after which the amplitude of the ca.100 ka climate oscillations increased, with substantially warmer interglacials, including periods warmer than present. Recent modelling has indicated that while the timing of these warmer‐than‐present transient (WPT) events is consistent with southern warming due to a deglaciation‐forced slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, the magnitude of warming requires a local amplification, for which a candidate is the feedback of significant West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) retreat. We here extend this argument, based on the absence of WPTs in the early ice core record (450–800 ka ago), to hypothesize that the MBE could be a manifestation of decreased WAIS stability, triggered by ongoing subglacial erosion. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Last glacial maximum constraints on the Earth System model HadGEM2-ES

Climate Dynamics - We investigate the response of the atmospheric and land surface components of the CMIP5/AR5 Earth System model HadGEM2-ES to pre-industrial (PI: AD 1860) and last glacial maximum...     

Sensitivity of soil moisture field evolution to rainfall forcing

In this paper the temporal behaviour of soil moisture is modelled and statistically characterized by use of the zero‐dimensional model for soil moisture dynamics and the rectangular pulses Poisson process model for rainfall forcing. The mean, covariance and spectral density function of soil moisture (both instantaneous and locally averaged cases) are analytically derived to evaluate its sensitivity to the model parameters. Finally, the probability density function of soil moisture is derived to evaluate the effect of rainfall forcing. All the model parameters used have been tuned to the Monsoon '90 data. Results can be summarized as follows. (1) Only the soil moisture model parameters (η and nZ_r) are found to affect the autocorrelation function in a distinguishable manner. On the other hand, both the rainfall model parameter (θ) and the effective soil depth (nZ_r) are found to be of impact to the soil moisture spectrum. However, as the smoothing (or damping) effect of soil is so dominant, about ±20% variation of one parameter seems not to affect significantly the second‐order statistics of soil moisture. (2) More difference can be found by applying a longer averaging time, which is found to obviously decrease the variance but increase the correlation even though no overlapping between neighbouring soil moisture data was allowed. (3) Among rainfall model parameters, the arrival rate (λ) was found to be most important for the soil moisture evolution. When increasing the arrival rate of rainfall, the histogram of soil moisture shifts its peak to a certain value as well as becomes more concentrated around the peak. However, by decreasing the arrival rate of rainfall, a much smaller (almost to zero) mean value of soil moisture was estimated, even though the total volume of rainfall remained constant. This indicates that desertification may take place without decreasing the total volume of rainfall. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An overview of Calanus helgolandicus ecology in European waters

We review current knowledge and understanding of the biology and ecology of the calanoid copepod Calanus helgolandicus in European waters, as well as provide a collaborative synthesis of data from 18 laboratories and 26 sampling stations in areas distributed from the northern North Sea to the Aegean and Levantine Seas. This network of zooplankton time-series stations has enabled us to collect and synthesise seasonal and multi-annual data on abundance, body size, fecundity, hatching success and vertical distribution of C. helgolandicus. An aim was to enable comparison with its congener Calanus finmarchicus, which has been studied intensively as a key component of European and north east Atlantic marine ecosystems. C. finmarchicus is known to over-winter at depth, whereas the life-cycle of C. helgolandicus is less well understood. Overwintering populations of C. helgolandicus have been observed off the Atlantic coast between 400 and 800 m, while in the Mediterranean there is evidence of significant deep-water populations at depths as great as 4200 m. The biogeographical distribution of C. helgolandicus in European coastal waters covers a wide range of habitats, from open ocean to coastal environments, and its contribution to mesozooplankton biomass ranges from 6% to 93%. Highest abundances were recorded in the Adriatic and off the west coast of Spain. C. helgolandicus is generally found in 9-20 °C water, with maximum abundances from 13-17 °C. In contrast, C. finmarchicus is found in cooler water between 0 and 15 °C, with peak abundances from 0 to 9 °C. As water has warmed in the North Atlantic over recent decades, the range of C. helgolandicus and its abundance on the fringes of its expanding range have increased. This review will facilitate development of population models of C. helgolandicus. This will not only help answer remaining questions but will improve our ability to forecast future changes, in response to a warming climate, in the abundance and distribution of this important species.     

Optimal tuning of a GCM using modern and glacial constraints

In climate models, many parameters used to resolve subgrid scale processes can be adjusted through a tuning exercise to fit the model??s output to target climatologies. We present an objective tuning of a low resolution Atmosphere?COcean General Circulation Model (GCM) called FAMOUS where ten model parameters are varied together using a Latin hypercube sampling method to create an ensemble of 100 models. The target of the tuning consists of a wide range of modern climate diagnostics and also includes glacial tropical sea surface temperature. The ensemble of models created is compared to the target using an Arcsin Mielke score. We investigate how the tuning method used and the addition of glacial constraints impact on the present day and glacial climates of the chosen models. Rather than selecting a single configuration which optimises the metric in all the diagnostics, we obtain a subset of nine ??good?? models which display great differences in their climate but which, in some sense, are all better than the original configuration. In those simulations, the global temperature response to last glacial maximum forcings is enhanced compared to the control simulation and the glacial Atlantic Ocean circulation is more in agreement with observations. Our study demonstrates that selecting a single ??optimal?? configuration, relying only on present day constraints may lead to misrepresenting climates different to that of today.     

Closure of the Panama Seaway during the Pliocene: implications for climate and Northern Hemisphere glaciation

The “Panama Hypothesis” states that the gradual closure of the Panama Seaway, between 13 million years ago (13 Ma) and 2.6 Ma, led to decreased mixing of Atlantic and Pacific water Masses, the formation of North Atlantic Deep water and strengthening of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, increased temperatures and evaporation in the North Atlantic, increased precipitation in Northern Hemisphere (NH) high latitudes, culminating in the intensification of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation (NHG) during the Pliocene, 3.2–2.7 Ma. Here we test this hypothesis using a fully coupled, fully dynamic ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (GCM) with boundary conditions specific to the Pliocene, and a high resolution dynamic ice sheet model. We carry out two GCM simulations with “closed” and “open” Panama Seaways, and use the simulated climatologies to force the ice sheet model. We find that the models support the “Panama Hypothesis” in as much as the closure of the seaway results in a more intense Atlantic thermohaline circulation, enhanced precipitation over Greenland and North America, and ultimately larger ice sheets. However, the volume difference between the ice sheets in the “closed” and “open” configurations is small, equivalent to about 5 cm of sea level. We conclude that although the closure of the Panama Seaway may have slightly enhanced or advanced the onset of NHG, it was not a major forcing mechanism. Future work must fully couple the ice sheet model and GCM, and investigate the role of orbital and CO₂ effects in controlling NHG.     

Comparison of mid-Pliocene climate predictions produced by the HadAM3 and GCMAM3 General Circulation Models

The mid-Pliocene warm period (ca. 3 to 3.3 million years ago) has become an important interval of time for palaeoclimate modelling exercises, with a large number of studies published during the last decade. However, there has been no attempt to assess the degree of model dependency of the results obtained. Here we present an initial comparison of mid-Pliocene climatologies produced by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research atmosphere-only General Circulation Models (GCMAM3 and HadAM3). Whilst both models are consistent in the simulation of broad-scale differences in mid-Pliocene surface air temperature and total precipitation rates, significant variation is noted on regional and local scales. There are also significant differences in the model predictions of total cloud cover. A terrestrial data/model comparison, facilitated by the BIOME 4 model and a new data set of Piacenzian Stage land cover [Salzmann, U., Haywood, A.M., Lunt, D.J., Valdes, P.J., Hill, D.J., (2008). A new global biome reconstruction and data model comparison for the Middle Pliocene. Global Ecology and Biogeography 17, 432-447, doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2007.00381.x] and combined with the use of Kappa statistics, indicates that HadAM3-based biome predictions provide a closer fit to proxy data in the mid to high-latitudes. However, GCMAM3-based biomes in the tropics provide the closest fit to proxy data.     

Geological evaluation of climate General Circulation Models and model implications for Mesozoic cloud cover

General Circulation Models (GCMs) are currently used to predict future global change. However, the robustness of GCMs can, and should, be evaluated by their ability to simulate past climate regimes. Their success in ‘retrodiction’ can then be assessed by reference to the testimony of the geological record. Geological evidence provides a database which can be used in the estimation of sea surface temperatures and other proxy data useful in palaeoclimatic studies. These data can then be used to refine the prescribed boundary conditions for running GCMs themselves. Results of modelling experiments confirm a generally warmer Mesozoic earth with arid tropics and convective rainfall higher over the oceans than at present. Circum-polar wetlands are also indicated. Modelled cloudiness is also higher in the Mesozoic, contributing to greenhouse conditions and possibly influencing terrestrial biomes and marine ecosystems.