北方草地生态气象综合监测预测技术及其应

近几十年来中国90%以上的草地出现退化现象,特别是内蒙古、宁夏、甘肃、新疆、青海、西藏等地区,草地退化严重,国家急需掌握气象条件对草地植被生长的影响,了解草地生产力、牲畜承载力以及生态质量状况.为此,在实时获取北方草地气温、降水量、日照时数等气象要素和气象卫星植被指数以及产草量观测资料的基础上,应用模糊数学、集合运算、统计分析等多种方法和"3S"手段,建立了北方草地植被生长气象条件优劣评价、产草量和载畜量预测、草地生态质量监测等模型.2005年以来,利用这些模型逐年评价了气象条件对草地植被生长的优劣影响、预测产草量和载畜量、监测草地生态质量优劣,获得了良好的服务效益.北方草地2007年生态气象监测预测结果表明:所建模型综合了多种资料和技术优势,结果符合实际;形成的综合监测预测技术可为国家保护和恢复草地生态环境提供科学依据.     

内蒙古马铃薯干旱风险区划

利用1979—2013年内蒙古73个旗县气象站资料、历史干旱资料、马铃薯产量数据和社会属性数据等,通过内蒙古中西部和东部地区全生育期的降水负距平百分率与相对气象产量二者建立的回归方程,结合农业干旱等级和降水距平百分率气象干旱等级国家标准,得到了马铃薯轻旱、中旱和重旱的等级指标,确定了干旱致灾因子的危险性,结合承灾体的脆弱性、孕灾环境的暴露性和地区的防灾减灾能力的评价指标体系,利用地理信息系统（GIS）的空间分析功能,对内蒙古马铃薯干旱风险进行评估与区划。研究结果表明:高风险区主要分布在鄂尔多斯市东北部、呼和浩特市南部和北部、乌兰察布市大部和锡林郭勒盟南部地区,所占面积比例为19.1%;中风险区主要分布在呼和浩特市部分地区、赤峰市中部和南部、通辽市西北部、兴安盟东北部、呼伦贝尔市北部地区,所占面积比例为20.1%;干旱较低风险区主要分布在赤峰市西部和北部、通辽市东南部、兴安盟西南部、呼伦贝尔市东南部地区,分布区域面积最大,所占比例为41.0%;低风险区主要分布在灌溉区域,包括河套灌区和辽河流域,所占面积比例为19.8%。     

基于作物系数与水分生产函数的向日葵产量预测

利用河套灌区向日葵2012年田间水分、分期播种试验数据和两个站点的农业气象历史资料,研究基于向日葵作物系数和水分生产函数的产量预测方法。结果表明:向日葵标准作物系数在生育期内的变化规律是前期小、中期大、后期小, 最高值为1.21, 出现在开花期。标准作物系数与出苗后日数和大于0℃积温有很好的二次和三次多项式关系,拟合优度在0.93以上。在分析相对叶面积指数和作物系数关系的基础上,提出标准作物系数的相对叶面积指数订正方法,得出河套灌区向日葵作物系数的动态计算式,为水分生产函数中实际蒸散量的计算提供支撑。建立以Jensen模型为基础的向日葵水分生产函数,得到对水分亏缺的敏感顺序从高到低是开花期、花序形成期、成熟期、苗期。综合应用向日葵作物系数方程和水分生产函数模型计算分期播种产量,与实际产量分别相差4.4%和4.1%,初步证明该文提出的方法对产量预测较为理想,在该地区具有很好的适用性。     

球面定常行星波射线的变化与波列的分支

为了解释大气低频波列的结构特征,本文把慢变介质中波传播的理论应用于行星波.采用射线追踪方法,借助于几何直观,在波射线与纬线平行的纬度附近,讨论了波数ks的分布对波射线变化与波列分支的作用.并讨论了沿波射线路径波幅的变化.提出,在波数ks为极值的纬度附近,定常行星波列存在着明显的分支现象.在传播期间,波幅在分支纬度附近为极大值.这些结论与双测和模拟的结果是相当一致的.此外,本文还讨论了“大圆路径理论”的局限性.     

青藏高原地区OLR与地面有效辐射关系的分析

青藏高原;;OLR;;地面有效辐射     

Validating the dynamic downscaling ability of WRF for East Asian summer climate

This work aims, as a first step, to analyze rainfall variability in Northern Algeria, in particular extreme events, during the period from 1940 to 2010. Analysis of annual rainfall shows that stations in the northwest record a significant decrease in rainfall since the 1970s. Frequencies of rainy days for each percentile (5th, 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th, 95th, and 99th) and each rainfall interval class (1–5, 5–10, 10–20, 20–50, and ≥50 mm) do not show a significant change in the evolution of daily rainfall. The Tenes station is the only one to show a significant decrease in the frequency of rainy days up to the 75th percentile and for the 10–20-mm interval class. There is no significant change in the temporal evolution of extreme events in the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles. The relationships between rainfall variability and general atmospheric circulation indices for interannual and extreme event variability are moderately influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Mediterranean Oscillation. Significant correlations are observed between the Southern Oscillation Index and annual rainfall in the northwestern part of the study area, which is likely linked with the decrease in rainfall in this region. Seasonal rainfall in Northern Algeria is affected by the Mediterranean Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation in the west. The ENSEMBLES regional climate models (RCMs) are assessed using the bias method to test their ability to reproduce rainfall variability at different time scales. The Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM), Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich (ETHZ), and Forschungszentrum Geesthacht (GKSS) models yield the least biased results.     

Decoding Neoarchaean to Palaeoproterozoic tectonothermal events in the Rangnim Massif,North Korea: regional correlation and broader implications

Any knowledge about Archaean to Palaeoproterozoic magmatic and metamorphic events in North Korea has the potential to make a significant difference to our understanding of the early tectonic configuration and evolution of East Asia. This zircon U–Pb dating and Hf isotopic study documents multiple Neoarchaean to Palaeoproterozoic tectonothermal events from the meta-igneous complex in the Machollyong ‘Group’ of the Rangnim Massif. Two tonalitic-trondjemitic gneiss samples record a crystallization age of meta-igneous protoliths at ca. 2.56 Ga and multiple migmatization and metamorphism from 2.52 to 1.85 Ga. A meta-dolerite sample yields a magmatic emplacement age of ca. 1.83 Ga. In situ zircon Hf isotopic data indicate that most zircons from the gneiss samples have ε_Hf(t) values from –16.9 to + 3.1 and crustal model ages from 2.84 to 3.73 Ga, whereas magmatic zircons from the meta-dolerite dike record ε_Hf(t) values from –5.2 to + 5.2 and model ages of 2.05–2.44 Ga. The first-recognized Neoarchaean tonalitic-trondjemitic migmatite complex in the Rangnim Massif, together with previously identified tonalitic-trondhjemitic-granodioritic (TTG) rocks in the Rimjingang Belt and the coeval counterparts in western Gyeonggi massif, represents the oldest crustal nuclei in the Korean Peninsula. The multiple tectonothermal events in this study present reliable evidence not only for attesting to consanguinity of the basement between the Korean Peninsula and the North China Craton but also for defining the influence scope of the late Palaeoproterozoic orogeny in the Korean Peninsula.     

大连地磁台天文方位角测量

论述大连地磁台天文方位角的测量原理、方法及观测结果,在地磁观测室未封顶的条件下,能在观测墩直接观测北极星,避免比测墩转角换算等因素增加的观测误差,观测精度提高.     

Palynological constraints on the age of the Mississippi Valley-type Changdong Pb-Zn deposit,Sanjiang belt,West China

Mississippi Valley-type(MVT)Pb-Zn deposits serve as the world’s major supply of Pb-Zn resources.However,the age constraint of MVT Pb-Zn deposits has long been a big challenge,due to the lack of minerals that are unequivocally related to ore deposition and that can be used for radioisotopic dating.Here we show sporopollens can provide useful chronological information on the Changdong MVT Pb-Zn deposit in the Simao basin,Sanjiang belt,West China.The Pb-Zn ores in the Changdong deposit are hosted by internal sediments in paleo-karst caves of meteoric origin.Sphalerite and galena occur as replacements of carbonate minerals and void infillings in the internal sediments.The relations suggest that the Pb-Zn mineralization occurred after the deposition of the internal sediments.A palynological assemblage mainly composed of angiosperm pollen dominated by Castanea,Quercus,and Carya and fern spores dominated by Polypodiaceae,Pteris,and Athyriaceae was identified.These pollen and spores place the ore-hosting internal sediments and the Changdong paleo-karst at early to middle Oligocene.Consequently,the Changdong Pb-Zn deposit must have formed after the early Oligocene(~34 Ma).These age constraints,together with the geological characteristics,indicate that the Changdong Pb-Zn deposit is a paleo-karst-controlled MVT deposit related to fold-thrust systems in the Sanjiang belt.The Changdong deposit is similar to other MVT Pb-Zn deposits in the northern part of the Sanjiang belt,making it possible to extend this Pb-Zn belt 500 km further to the South.Results presented here highlights the potential of sporopollens in dating the age of MVT deposits related to paleo-karst formation in young orogenic belts.     

Origin of Natural Gas in Kekeya Field, Tarim Basin, China

This paper is mainly concentrated on the geochemical characteristics and origin of gas of Kekeya field in the Tarim basin, NW China. This study shows that Permian mudstone is the main source rock of oil and gas. Based on the carbon isotopes of C1--C4, the carbon isotope of gas in Kekeya field is a little heavier than that in the typical marine-derived gas. The relationship between carbon isotopes of methane and ethane is coincident with Faber equation of gas derived from organic matter Ⅰ/Ⅱ. The majority of gas maturity is estimated, based on the formula, at 1.8%-2.2% besides K2 and K18 wells. In addition, the gas derived from 0.9%-1.2% Ro source rocks may also bemixture. ^40Ar/^36Ar and ^3He/^4He ratios from the gas samples also support the mixing process. Moreover, the gas in this region is mainly generated from more mature source rocks although the low mature gas exists.