Empirical and theoretical evidence concerning the response of the earth's ice and snow cover to a global temperature increase

As a guide to the possible effects of a CO₂-induced warming on the cryosphere, we review the effects of three warm periods in the past, and out theoretical understanding of fluctuations in mountain glaciers, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, ground ice, sea ice and seasonal snow cover. Between 1890 and 1940 A.D. the glaciated area in Switzerland was reduced by over 25%. In the Hypsithermal, at about 6000 BP, ground ice in Eurasia retreated northward by several hundred kilometres. In the interglacial Stage 5e, at about 120 000 BP, global sea-level rose by over 6 m. Fluctuations of mountain glaciers depend on mesoscale “weather” and on their mechanical response to it. Any melting of the Greenland ice sheet is likely to be slow in human terms. The West Antarctic ice sheet (its base below sea-level) is susceptible to an ungrounding, and such an event may have been the cause of the sea-level rise above. The East Antarctic ice sheet is susceptible to mechanical “surges”, which might be triggered by a warming at its margin. Both an ungrounding and a surge might occupy less than 100 yr, and are potetially the most important ice changes in human terms. Modelling studies suggest that a 5°C warming would remove the Arctic pack ice in summer, and this may be the most significant effect for further climatic change.     

From eco-management and audit (EMAS) to sustainability management and audit (SMAS)

The local authority version of the Eco-Management and Audit Scheme (LA-EMAS) can already be used as a tool for managing towards sustainability. But it can also be used in a much less ambitious 'procedural' way. This article suggests how LA-EMAS could be developed more fully into a sustainability management tool embracing social issues, a concern over environmental carrying capacities, and stakeholder involvement. This raises questions which should be considered in the run-up to the review of the EMAS regulation in 1998.     

Ambient concentrations and correlations of hydrocarbons and halocarbons in the vicinity of an airport

Concentrations of sixteen volatile hydrocarbons present in internal combustion engine exhaust gases and two halogenated hydrocarbons have been measured in ambient air samples at six sites around Gatwick Airport. Correlations between their concentrations have been drawn in an attempt to establish the exact nature of the sources of these emissions, together with consideration of the overall hydrocarbon profiles.     

WATER USE RELATIONSHIPS AND PROJECTION CORRESPONDING WITH REGIONAL GROWTH,SEATTLE REGION1

ABSTRACT: The paper outlines both the methods used and the results obtained in a study of the demand for municipal and industrial water for the Seattle region. The study was made as part of a regional water management study program, one objective of which is to “… identify, quantify, and set priorities for all current and future water uses …”. A basic concept in the study of municipal and industrial water use is that the demand for water is derived from the demand for output and the direct services that water provides. Principal characteristics of the study are: (1) Water use is studied by type - residential, commercial, industrial and public -with identification of factors affecting each; (2) Water demands are studied by season as well as on an annual basis; (3) Projections of future water use are tied directly to projections of economic change in the service area; and (4) The effects of alternative policies on water use are estimated. Water use levels are projected under alternative regional growth assumptions provided by the Puget Sound Governmental Conference, a regional planning agency. Thus, the water use planning is consistent with other regional planning programs in this respect. The results can be varied according to changes in specific factors affecting water use. The factors considered in the present study include: single-family residential lot size, distribution of population between single- and multi-family units, per capita water use by multi-family unit residents, and industrial and commercial water use per employee. An income elasticity of demand was estimated for single-family residential water use.     

Use of genetic,climatic, and microbiological data to inform reintroduction of a regionally extinct butterfly

Species reintroductions are increasingly used as means of mitigating biodiversity loss. Besides habitat quality at the site targeted for reintroduction, the choice of source population can be critical for success. The butterfly Melanargia russiae (Esper´s marbled white) was extirpated from Hungary over 100 years ago, and a reintroduction program has recently been approved. We used museum specimens of this butterfly, mitochondrial DNA data (mtDNA), endosymbiont screening, and climatic‐similarity analyses to determine which extant populations should be used for its reintroduction. The species displayed 2 main mtDNA lineages across its range: 1 restricted to Iberia and southern France (Iberian lineage) and another found throughout the rest of its range (Eurasian lineage). These 2 lineages possessed highly divergent wsp alleles of the bacterial endosymbiont Wolbachia. The century‐old Hungarian specimens represented an endemic haplotype belonging to the Eurasian lineage, differing by one mutation from the Balkan and eastern European populations. The Hungarian populations of M. russiae occurred in areas with a colder and drier climate relative to most sites with extant known populations. Our results suggest the populations used for reintroduction to Hungary should belong to the Eurasian lineage, preferably from eastern Ukraine (genetically close and living in areas with the highest climatic similarity). Materials stored in museum collections can provide unique opportunities to document historical genetic diversity and help direct conservation.     

Patterns of houses and habitat loss from 1937 to 1999 in northern Wisconsin, USA.

Rural America is witnessing widespread housing development, which is to the detriment of the environment. It has been suggested to cluster houses so that their disturbance zones overlap and thus cause less habitat loss than is the case for dispersed development. Clustering houses makes intuitive sense, but few empirical studies have quantified the spatial pattern of houses in real landscapes, assessed changes in their patterns over time, and quantified the resulting habitat loss. We addressed three basic questions: (1) What are the spatial patterns of houses and how do they change over time; (2) How much habitat is lost due to houses, and how is this affected by spatial pattern of houses; and (3) What type of habitat is most affected by housing development. We mapped 27 419 houses from aerial photos for five time periods in 17 townships in northern Wisconsin and calculated the terrestrial land area remaining after buffering each house using 100- and 500-m disturbance zones. The number of houses increased by 353% between 1937 and 1999. Ripley's K test showed that houses were significantly clustered at all time periods and at all scales. Due to the clustering, the rate at which habitat was lost (176% and 55% for 100- and 500-m buffers, respectively) was substantially lower than housing growth rates, and most land area was undisturbed (95% and 61% for 100-m and 500-m buffers, respectively). Houses were strongly clustered within 100 m of lakes. Habitat loss was lowest in wetlands but reached up to 60% in deciduous forests. Our results are encouraging in that clustered development is common in northern Wisconsin, and habitat loss is thus limited. However, the concentration of development along lakeshores causes concern, because these may be critical habitats for many species. Conservation goals can only be met if policies promote clustered development and simultaneously steer development away from sensitive ecosystems.     

A Comparison of Corridors and Intrinsic Connectivity to Promote Dispersal in Transient Successional Landscapes

Low-vagility organisms that specialize on transitory successional habitats may be especially dependent upon habitat connectivity to maintain population viability. We analyzed the theoretical intrinsic connectivity of successional landscapes (i.e., the natural juxtaposition of similar habitats that allows dispersal) as a function of patch geometry coupled with the disperser's habitat specificity. Habitat specialists living in poorly connected landscapes (approximating hexagonal patches) have only a 26.5% chance of colonizing a new site when their resident patch becomes unsuitable. In contrast, generalists living in well connected landscapes can virtually always colonize a new site when needed. We infer from our simulation that for some habitat specialists, such as the rare, endemic Florida scrub lizard (Sceloporus woodi), anthropogenic control of successional dynamics for commercial logging may significantly reduce intrinsic connectivity. Lizard population viability may now depend upon the extrinsic connectivity provided by artificial corridors. However, the use of corridors will not serve as a general solution to the problem of anthropogenically reduced intrinsic connectivity until key logistical design problems have been resolved. Moreover, efforts to enhance intrinsic connectivity by modifying patch geometry may produce undesirable edge effects and conflict with old-growth preservation. Future research should focus on developing spatially explicit corridor models, documenting natural levels of intrinsic connectivity, quantifying anthropogenic disruption of natural connectivity, and describing species-specific mechanisms of inter-patch dispersal.     

Brood reduction in the American white pelican (Pelecanus erythrohynchos)

Summary American white pelicans (Pelecanus erythrorhynchos) breeding in colonies at East Shoal Lake, Manitoba, Canada exhibited a mean hatching asynchrony of 2.5 days in 2-egg clutches. This resulted in a size difference between chicks which facilitated sibling dominance, harassment and lack of food for the subordinate chick. Only one young survived per nest. In marked broods, the secondhatched chick survived in 20% of successful nests. Manipulated clutch sizes (1, 2 and 3 eggs or chicks per nest) revealed that the presence of a second chick contributes significantly to the reproductive success of the parents. Results support the hypothesis that the second egg functions as a form of insurance against early loss of the first egg or chick. The parents, by establishing hatching asynchrony, by nonintervention in sibling aggression, and by selectively feeding the dominant chick, maximize their chance of rearing the most viable young.