A statistical framework for strategic decision making with AHP: Probability assessment and Bayesian revision

A probability assessment framework is outlined for an organizational decision involving a conditioning event (CE). The decision may, for example, involve a new-product launch (strategic decision) dependent on the outcome of market research (CE). The framework illustrates how Bayesian revision could be employed as related “news” arrives intermittently to revise current probabilities prior to decision implementation. A unique contribution of this paper is its utilization of the analytic hierarchy process to ascertain a set of consistent and coherent probabilities for the event/sample spaces at all stages of the decision process.     

The role of the voluntary,community and social enterprise sector in Early Help: Critical reflections from embedded social care research

The independent review of children's social care (2022) has proposed a radical reset of England's children's services, shifting a remote, assessment heavy system towards one that works alongside communities to help prevent statutory interventions. However, notions around the harnessing of community resources to deliver Early Help are often underpinned by assumptions regarding the voluntary, community and social enterprise (VCSE) sector and the ease with which such organizations can be integrated into preventative strategies. This paper reports findings from embedded research within a unitary authority in Southwest England during remodelling of its Early Help service to work more collaboratively with local VCSE organizations. The study generated data from ethnographic observations, semi-structured interviews and focus groups with 95 participants, including local parents, service providers, VCSE organizations and Council leaders. The findings illustrate that families value the compassionate, responsive and flexible support available within many VCSE settings. However, differences in practice cultures, regulatory pressures on statutory providers, the need to (re)build trust in communities and sensitivities around power-sharing and resourcing meant negotiating VCSE sector integration was fraught with complexities. Few studies have gained such privileged access to a Local Authority's remodelling of Early Help services, and this paper has significant insights for the debates surrounding the independent review of children's social care (2022) and its recommendation to bring services ‘closer to communities’.     

Siblings in lockdown: International evidence for birth order effects on child adjustment in the Covid19 pandemic

Supportive family relationships may mitigate the impact of the Covid19 pandemic on young children's adjustment, but existing work is limited by its focus on within-country variation and parental influences. Addressing these gaps, and drawing on reported buffering effects of older siblings on child mental health (Lawson and Mace, 2010), the current international study examined whether child adjustment problems were, on average, elevated by the pandemic and whether this buffering effect of older siblings would be maintained. In the first wave of the Covid19 pandemic (April to July 2020), 2516 parents of 3- to 8-year-old children living in Australia, China, Italy, Sweden, United Kingdom, and United States of America—six countries with contrasting governmental responses to the pandemic—completed an online survey about family experiences and relationships and child adjustment, as indexed by ratings on the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ: R. Goodman, 1997). As expected, child SDQ total difficulty scores were elevated in all sites except Sweden (which notably did not enforce mass school closures). Compared to children without siblings, children with one or more older siblings showed fewer adjustment problems. Children from lone-parent households displayed more adjustment problems, as did those whose parents reported increased sibling conflict. Finally, child adjustment problems were negatively associated with family socio-economic status, but positively related to the indices of Covid-19 family disruption and government stringency. We discuss these findings in relation to existing work on asymmetric effects of older versus younger siblings, and siblings as sources of support.     

A Framework for Understanding Uncertainty in Seismic Risk Assessment

A better understanding of the uncertainty that exists in models used for seismic risk assessment is critical to improving risk-based decisions pertaining to earthquake safety. Current models estimating the probability of collapse of a building do not consider comprehensively the nature and impact of uncertainty. This article presents a model framework to enhance seismic risk assessment and thus gives decisionmakers a fuller understanding of the nature and limitations of the estimates. This can help ensure that risks are not over- or underestimated and the value of acquiring accurate data is appreciated fully. The methodology presented provides a novel treatment of uncertainties in input variables, their propagation through the model, and their effect on the results. The study presents ranges of possible annual collapse probabilities for different case studies on buildings in different parts of the world, exposed to different levels of seismicity, and with different vulnerabilities. A global sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the significance of uncertain variables. Two key outcomes are (1) that the uncertainty in ground-motion conversion equations has the largest effect on the uncertainty in the calculation of annual collapse probability; and (2) the vulnerability of a building appears to have an effect on the range of annual collapse probabilities produced, i.e., the level of uncertainty in the estimate of annual collapse probability, with less vulnerable buildings having a smaller uncertainty.     

The inherent tensions within sustainable supply chains: a case study from Bangladesh

Abstract

The complexities surrounding the supply chain logistics for perishable commodities within Bangladesh are extensive. Poor infrastructure, fragmented transportation and corruption compound the operational complexities within this emerging market. This case study analyses many of the day-to-day operational challenges and tensions inherent within Micro-Small-Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) forming the backbone of the Bangladesh socio-economic structure. The drive for transition toward greater levels of sustainability and corporate responsibility is problematic, affecting many levels within an extended and fragmented supply chain. The selected case study highlights the ‘lived in’ geographical, environmental, economic and cultural factors that impact the ability of emerging market enterprises to remain profitable within emergency scenarios whilst transitioning toward a more sustainable model. This study, whilst detailing many of the tensions and critical issues facing MSMEs, highlights the benefits of direct Government intervention, criticality of a leaner and more efficient supply chain and reassessment of financial incentives to drive the transition to a more efficient and sustainable economy.     

Children Act 1948 and 1989: similarities, differences, continuities

The paper comments on the Children Acts of 1948 and 1989. The 1989 Act was broader but built on the 1948 one. The legislative contexts had some important similarities.     

Devolution and Patient Choice: Policy Rhetoric versus Experience in Practice

Background: market reforms in England have been identified as making a clear distinction between English health policy and health policy in the devolved systems in Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales. Patient choice is a high profile policy in the English National Health Service that constitutes significant changes to the demand side of health care. It is not clear what national differences this has led to regarding implementation of policy. This article presents the findings from a large UK‐wide study on the development and implementation of policies related to patient choice of provider. The findings reported here relate specifically to the policy development and organizational implementation of choice in order to examine the impact of devolution on health care policy. Aim: this study examines patient choice of provider across all four countries of the UK to understand the effect of differences in national policies on the organization and service how choice of provider presented to patients. Methods: at the macro‐level, we interviewed policymakers and examined policy and guidance documents to analyze the provenance and determinants of national policy in each UK nation. At the Primary Care Trust or Health Board level, we interviewed a range of public and private health service providers to identify the range of referral pathways and where and when choices might be made. Finally, we interviewed ear, nose and throat, and orthopaedics patients to understand how such choices were experienced. Findings: while we found that distinct rhetorical differences were identifiable at a national policy level, these were less visible at the level of service organization and the way choices were provided to patients. Conclusion: historical similarities in both the structure and operation of health care, coupled with common operational objectives around efficient resource use and waiting times, mediate how strategic policy is implemented and experienced in the devolved nations of the UK.     

‘Something to Deal With’: Customer Sexual Harassment and Women's Retail Service Work in Canada

While sexual harassment in the workplace has been extensively researched over the past two decades, the majority of studies have focused on employer–employee or co-worker relationships. In contrast, the issue of ‘customer sexual harassment’ (i.e. the sexual harassment of employees by customers) has been less explicitly explored. This paper examines customer sexual harassment in the Canadian context, drawing on a study of 63 female retail service workers and 20 security workers. It focuses on the nature, prevalence, and consequences of this form of harassment for women who work in various jobs in retail sales (e.g. flower shops, book shops). Findings from the study suggest that customer sexual harassment is a significant problem. Not only have a majority of women been sexually harassed by customers in their current job, but they appear to be highly constrained in dealing with such behaviour. To the extent that the work environment privileges the customer, through its emphasis on customer satisfaction, women are reluctant to confront harassers and may engage in behaviours (e.g. avoiding male customers, being less friendly) which potentially impact their performance on the job. The paper examines the dilemmas facing female workers and the policy issues raised.