Observing Unobservables: Identifying Information Asymmetries With a Consumer Credit Field Experiment

Information asymmetries are important in theory but difficult to identify in practice. We estimate the presence and importance of hidden information and hidden action problems in a consumer credit market using a new field experiment methodology. We randomized 58,000 direct mail offers to former clients of a major South African lender along three dimensions: (i) an initial “offer interest rate” featured on a direct mail solicitation; (ii) a “contract interest rate” that was revealed only after a borrower agreed to the initial offer rate; and (ii) a dynamic repayment incentive that was also a surprise and extended preferential pricing on future loans to borrowers who remained in good standing. These three randomizations, combined with complete knowledge of the lender's information set, permit identification of specific types of private information problems. Our setup distinguishes hidden information effects from selection on the offer rate (via unobservable risk and anticipated effort), from hidden action effects (via moral hazard in effort) induced by actual contract terms. We find strong evidence of moral hazard and weaker evidence of hidden information problems. A rough estimate suggests that perhaps 13% to 21% of default is due to moral hazard. Asymmetric information thus may help explain the prevalence of credit constraints even in a market that specializes in financing high‐risk borrowers.     

Simultaneous estimation of means of two sensitive variables

In this paper, we introduce a new problem of simultaneous estimation of means of two quantitative sensitive variables by using only one randomized response another pseudo response from a respondent in a sample. The proposed estimators are extended to stratified random sampling, and the relative efficiency values are computed for equal, proportional, and optimum allocation with respect to the newly introduced naïve estimators.     

Computer experiment designs for accurate prediction

Computer experiments using deterministic simulators are sometimes used to replace or supplement physical system experiments. This paper compares designs for an initial computer simulator experiment based on empirical prediction accuracy; it recommends designs for producing accurate predictions. The basis for the majority of the designs compared is the integrated mean squared prediction error (IMSPE) that is computed assuming a Gaussian process model with a Gaussian correlation function. Designs that minimize the IMSPE with respect to a fixed set of correlation parameters as well as designs that minimize a weighted IMSPE over the correlation parameters are studied. These IMSPE-based designs are compared with three widely-used space-filling designs. The designs are used to predict test surfaces representing a range of stationary and non-stationary functions. For the test conditions examined in this paper, the designs constructed under IMSPE-based criteria are shown to outperform space-filling Latin hypercube designs and maximum projection designs when predicting smooth functions of stationary appearance, while space-filling and maximum projection designs are superior for test functions that exhibit strong non-stationarity.     

Imagined past,present and futures in Murray–Darling Basin communities

Over the past three decades, irrigation-dependent rural communities in Australia's Murray–Darling Basin have experienced profound economic, social and environmental changes, which they are attempting to accommodate through local government policy. As a contribution to participatory policy design research, in consultation with local governments we carried out focus groups to explore diversity of individuals’ imagined past and present in two rural communities. This was followed by group development of a diverse range of future scenarios and agreement to three likely scenarios. The research identified presence or absence of three underlying themes – irrigation, innovation and inflow of people – that plausibly drive change in these rural communities. These themes are likely to be common to many rural communities that have depended on irrigated agriculture. They provide an example of participatory policy-making, as distinct from the historically employed top-down policy development that has occurred in the Murray–Darling Basin. Because of the diversity of perceptions of past, present and futures, and the ultimate adoption of business-as-usual within the final local government plans, the research emphasises the need to put effort into community deliberations to build cohesion and share ownership of the process for delivering locally nuanced community policy.     

Generalized neighbor designs with block size 3

A generalized neighbor design relaxes the equality condition on the number of times two treatments as neighbors in the design. In this article, we have considered the construction of some classes of generalized neighbor designs with block size k=3 by using the method of cyclic shifts. The distinguishing feature of this construction method is that the properties of a design can easily be obtained from the sets of shifts instead of constructing the actual blocks of the design. A catalog of generalized neighbor designs with block size k=3 is compiled for v∈{5,6,…,18} treatments and for different replications. We provide the reader with a simpler method of construction, and in general the catalog that gives an open choice to the experimenter for selecting any class of neighbor designs.     

Social Work Student Views on Palliative Care Learning Resources

Abstract

Many social workers are expected to work with individuals and families who are dealing with life-limiting illnesses, yet during their university education they may not have been exposed to materials that address issues related to death and dying. The Social Work Department of University of New England in Armidale, Australia designed and delivered a palliative care teaching and learning session using publicly funded online materials. Themes emerging from questionnaire and focus group data analysis included appreciation for the importance and emotional demands of the materials, sensitivity and flexibility among educators who ideally have work experience in the field, expanding presence of social work philosophy in curriculum materials and exploring spirituality, and examining culture-informed practice in greater depth. Among the implications is the need for concerted efforts to teach about death and dying using high quality accessible materials, while ensuring social work values and approaches are reflected in the content.     

Reporting Rape in a National Sample of College Women

Abstract

Background: Studies indicate that a small percentage of rapes are reported to law enforcement officials. Research also suggests that rapes perpetrated by a stranger are more likely to be reported and that rapes involving drugs and/or alcohol are less likely to be reported. College women represent a unique and understudied population with regard to reporting rape. Methods: In the current study, the authors interviewed a national sample of 2,000 college women about rape experiences in 2006. Results: Only 11.5% of college women in the sample reported their most recent/only rape experience to authorities, with only 2.7% of rapes involving drugs and/or alcohol reported. Minority status (ie, nonwhite race) was associated with lower likelihood of reporting, whereas sustaining injuries during the rape was associated with increased likelihood of reporting. Discussion: Reporting, particularly for rapes involving drugs and alcohol, is low among college women. Implications for policy are discussed.     

Community College Health Service Programs: A Progress Report

Abstract

What progress has been made in improving the health service programs available to the millions of students attending the nation's public community colleges? This question was investigated by sending a follow-up survey to deans of students in 1977; the original study was done five years earlier and resulted in a national profile of health service programs at public two-year institutions.

Some of the significant findings were: the percent of colleges offering health service programs has increased from 41.5% to 51.3%; the campus nurse continues to be the most common health professionals available to students; facilities are considered to be adequate and accessible; and a broad range of student health needs are met. New elements in the survey covered health education and mental health services, and these were positively evaluated.

On the basis of survey results it was concluded that community colleges have made considerable progress in improving student health services, but there is still much to be done.     

An Analysis of Verbal Stimulus Control in Intraverbal Behavior: Implications for Practice and Applied Research

A common characteristic of the language deficits experienced by children with autism (and other developmental disorders) is their failure to acquire a complex intraverbal repertoire. The difficulties with learning intraverbal behaviors may, in part, be related to the fact that the stimulus control for such behaviors usually involves highly complex verbal stimuli. The antecedent verbal control of intraverbal behavior may involve discriminative stimuli (i.e., discriminated operants), conditional stimulus control, and/or control by compound stimuli. Distinctions among these different types of antecedent control are presented, along with recommendations for intervention procedures that may facilitate the acquisition of intraverbal behavior.     

Developing a Low‐Cost Technique for Parallel Cross‐Cultural Instrument Development: The Question Appraisal System (QAS‐04)

Many approaches are used to prepare instruments for multicultural administration, depending on the scope, schedule and budget of the study. Sequential questionnaire development, the most common approach to developing cross‐cultural instruments, is also the most affordable. Designers formulate and pretest an instrument in the source language, then translate it into the target language(s) using culture‐specific tailoring. In contrast, parallel development incorporates target cultures throughout the design and pretesting process. The disadvantages to parallel development are that it is expensive, time‐consuming and subject to version control problems. Question Appraisal System (QAS) is a coding tool for pretesting instruments. The QAS is supported by an item taxonomy of the cognitive demands of a question and documents the features that may lead to response error. Results of the appraisal are used to revise question wording, response wording, questionnaire format and question ordering. This article describes research conducted to update the QAS to identify problems due to cross‐cultural and cross‐linguistic application of questions.