Seismicity and source parameters of moderate earthquakes in Sikkim Himalaya

In this study, we accurately relocate 360 earthquakes in the Sikkim Himalaya through the application of the double-difference algorithm to 4?years of data accrued from a eleven-station broadband seismic network. The analysis brings out two major clusters of seismicity??one located in between the main central thrust (MCT) and the main boundary thrust (MBT) and the other in the northwest region of Sikkim that is site to the devastating Mw6.9 earthquake of September 18, 2011. Keeping in view the limitations imposed by the Nyquist frequency of our data (10?Hz), we select 9 moderate size earthquakes (5.3????Ml????4) for the estimation of source parameters. Analysis of shear wave spectra of these earthquakes yields seismic moments in the range of 7.95?×?10²¹ dyne-cm to 6.31?×?10²³ dyne-cm and corner frequencies in the range of 1.8?C6.25?Hz. Smaller seismic moments obtained in Sikkim when compared with the rest of the Himalaya vindicates the lower seismicity levels in the region. Interestingly, it is observed that most of the events having larger seismic moment occur between MBT and MCT lending credence to our observation that this is the most active portion of Sikkim Himalaya. The estimates of stress drop and source radius range from 48 to 389?bar and 0.225 to 0.781?km, respectively. Stress drops do not seem to correlate with the scalar seismic moments affirming the view that stress drop is independent over a wide moment range. While the continental collision scenario can be invoked as a reason to explain a predominance of low stress drops in the Himalayan region, those with relatively higher stress drops in Sikkim Himalaya could be attributed to their affinity with strike-slip source mechanisms. Least square regression of the scalar seismic moment (M ₀) and local magnitude (Ml) results in a relation LogM ₀?=?(1.56?±?0.05)Ml?+?(8.55?±?0.12) while that between moment magnitude (M _w ) and local magnitude as M _w ?=?(0.92?±?0.04)Ml?+?(0.14?±?0.06). These relations could serve as useful inputs for the assessment of earthquake hazard in this seismically active region of Himalaya.     

Sedimentological and 14C dating studies of past tsunami events in Southern Sri Lanka

After the 2004 Sumatra?CAndaman tsunamigenic earthquake, waters from the ocean moved upstream along rivers, bays, harbors, and lagoons and inundated many coastal and inland locations in the southern, eastern, and northern parts of Sri Lanka. The tsunami waters were observed to move upwards inland and then recede downwards to the ocean after varying inundation periods in different coastal areas. Subsequent massive tsunami waves came with the wave height varying from 3 to 8?m inland with speed of about 30?C40?kmph. The oceanic waves carrying heterogeneous sediments with water deposited them in coastal as well as inland locations about 1?km from the present coastline. Given the chaotic nature of tsunami oceanic waves, pre-tsunami deposits, such as beach sands, debris from coral reefs and buildings, parts of vehicles and ships, and tree trunks are found incorporated in authentic tsunami sediments. Thus, the texture, structure, and composition of sediments deposited by tsunami waters differed from one location to another. Therefore, in identifying paleo-tsunami sediments, care was taken to compare them with diagnostic unmixed uncontaminated recent tsunami sediments having characteristic textures and marine microfossil assemblages, such as foraminifera, radiolarians, and diatoms where preserved in coastal depressions. The radiocarbon ages of the carbonate and the organic fractions of these sediments are stratigraphically inconsistent, indicating mixing of sediments by the tsunami waves. The concentrations of organic carbon and nitrogen and their isotopic signatures confirm marine origin of these sediments.     

Effect of surface wave inversion non-uniqueness on 1D seismic ground response analysis

Surface wave methods are increasingly being used for geotechnical site characterization. The methodology is based on the dispersive characteristic of Rayleigh waves in vertically heterogeneous medium. Experimental dispersion curve is inverted to obtain one-dimensional shear-wave velocity profile by inverse problem solution. Uncertainty associated with this surface wave inversion has drawn much attention. Inverse problem solution can provide different equivalent shear-wave velocity profiles, which may lead to different seismic site response analysis. In this study, a neighborhood algorithm has been used for inversion of dispersion curve to get a set of equivalent shear-wave velocity profiles. These equivalent velocity profiles are then used for 1D ground response analysis for different input motion record of the same earthquake at different epicentral distances. Results show significant variation in amplification spectrum in terms of maximum amplification as well as peak frequency. The extent of this uncertainty largely depends on the characteristics of the ground motion records at different epicentral distances. A linear variation is observed between mean coefficients of variation of amplification spectrum and epicentral distance of ground motion records. A gradual increase in mean value of peak frequency and peak amplification with the epicentral distance is also observed.     

Unbiased estimates of galaxy scaling relations from photometric redshift surveys

Many physical properties of galaxies correlate with one another, and these correlations are often used to constrain galaxy formation models. Such correlations include the colour–magnitude relation, the luminosity–size relation, the fundamental plane, etc. However, the transformation from observable (e.g. angular size, apparent brightness) to physical quantity (physical size, luminosity) is often distance dependent. Noise in the distance estimate will lead to biased estimates of these correlations, thus compromising the ability of photometric redshift surveys to constrain galaxy formation models. We describe two methods which can remove this bias. One is a generalization of the V _max method, and the other is a maximum-likelihood approach. We illustrate their effectiveness by studying the size–luminosity relation in a mock catalogue, although both methods can be applied to other scaling relations as well. We show that if one simply uses photometric redshifts one obtains a biased relation; our methods correct for this bias and recover the true relation.     

Mathematical analysis of a chaotic model in relevance to monsoon ISO

Mathematical analysis of a predominantly bimodal chaotic attractor, Lu system, was carried out to investigate a possible application of the model as a prototype of monsoon intra-seasonal oscillation (ISO). Bifurcation structures of the system are explored as the system parameter c and the forcing parameter F are varied. Stability criteria of equilibrium points of the forced Lu system are also explored in detail. A sensitivity study is carried out, by changing forcing parameter F, to explore relationships between some of the derived variables of the model and, based on such relationships, an empirical rule is used for extended range prediction. Analogous variables are also derived from the ISO data and prediction results are compared. Application of the prediction rule of regime transition to the observed ISO and chaotic model data is purely based on the bimodal characteristics of ISO and neglects some of the intricate mechanisms therein. We have found that a forced Lu system can be a good prototype in the prediction of peak anomaly of the monsoon ISO when growth rates around a threshold value are taken as predictors.     

Hill slope stability analysis using two and three dimensions analysis: A comparative study

Slope instability is very common phenomenon, especially in tectonically active hills of the lesser Himalaya. The deformed, weathered and fragile rocks of the lesser Himalaya are often vulnerable under natural or anthropogenic influences. There were several cases of slope failure along highway sections in Uttarakhand Himalaya. The study was carried out along a highway section of NH-109. The factor of safety (FoS) is commonly most acceptable parameter that analyses the health of slopes. The two dimensional (2D) numerical analysis techniques are commonly used to obtain the FoS. It is observed that many times FoS obtained from 2D analysis techniques do not qualify the actual conditions and are usually lower in value as compared to ground conditions. This, in turn, increases the cost of remedial measures used for protection of slopes. This paper presents a comparative study of 2D and 3D numerical analysis based on the finite difference method (FDM) using fast Langrangian analysis of continua (FLAC) codes. The study indicates that there is no appreciable difference between FoS values obtained from 2D and 3D analysis based on the selected slope conditions. The difference ranges from 0.02 to 0.07 for analysed cases in uniform rock mass. The study also exhibits some of the important analytical observations and effects of variables on resultant FoS.     

Spatio-temporal analysis of decadal-scale patterns in barrier island response to storms: Perdido Key,NW Florida

The ability to accurately quantify shoreline variability is essential in order to establish aggressive mitigation strategies, based on recent global climate change projections. This investigation employed a suite of coastal data (topographic maps, aerial photography, satellite imagery and lidar) to establish decadal trends of shoreline movement along Perdido Key, a sandy barrier island off Florida’s northwest coast. The technique used to detect morphologic change with time was a recently developed tool, Analyzing Moving Boundaries Using R. This innovative methodology improves our understanding of the evolution of coastal systems by modeling shoreline variance using a method that is sensitive to shoreline shape. Results show that the barrier shoreline is a highly dynamic feature with distinct zones of erosion and accretion that are pervasive over time. In general, the island is displaying a mechanism of rotational instability with the eastern half retreating, and the western portion advancing. The inflection point, around which this rotational shifting is taking place, lies at the center of a Pleistocene headland located along the island’s midpoint. The results of this study suggest that coastal evolution along the island may be meta-stable, with trends in shoreline variance corresponding mainly to discrete storm events in time.     

The 26 July 2005 heavy rainfall event over Mumbai: numerical modeling aspects

The performance of the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) in simulating an extreme rainfall event is evaluated, and subsequently the physical mechanisms leading to its initiation and sustenance are explored. As a case study, the heavy precipitation event that led to 65 cm of rainfall accumulation in a span of around 6 h (1430 LT–2030 LT) over Santacruz (Mumbai, India), on 26 July, 2005, is selected. Three sets of numerical experiments have been conducted. The first set of experiments (EXP1) consisted of a four-member ensemble, and was carried out in an idealized mode with a model grid spacing of 1 km. In spite of the idealized framework, signatures of heavy rainfall were seen in two of the ensemble members. The second set (EXP2) consisted of a five-member ensemble, with a four-level one-way nested integration and grid spacing of 54, 18, 6 and 1 km. The model was able to simulate a realistic spatial structure with the 54, 18, and 6 km grids; however, with the 1 km grid, the simulations were dominated by the prescribed boundary conditions. The third and final set of experiments (EXP3) consisted of a five-member ensemble, with a four-level one-way nesting and grid spacing of 54, 18, 6, and 2 km. The Scaled Lagged Average Forecasting (SLAF) methodology was employed to construct the ensemble members. The model simulations in this case were closer to observations, as compared to EXP2. Specifically, among all experiments, the timing of maximum rainfall, the abrupt increase in rainfall intensities, which was a major feature of this event, and the rainfall intensities simulated in EXP3 (at 6 km resolution) were closest to observations. Analysis of the physical mechanisms causing the initiation and sustenance of the event reveals some interesting aspects. Deep convection was found to be initiated by mid-tropospheric convergence that extended to lower levels during the later stage. In addition, there was a high negative vertical gradient of equivalent potential temperature suggesting strong atmospheric instability prior to and during the occurrence of the event. Finally, the presence of a conducive vertical wind shear in the lower and mid-troposphere is thought to be one of the major factors influencing the longevity of the event.