Finite element analysis of land subsidence above depleted reservoirs with pore pressure gradient and total stress formulations

The solution of the poroelastic equations for predicting land subsidence above productive gas/oil fields may be addressed by the principle of virtual works using either the effective intergranular stress, with the pore pressure gradient regarded as a distributed body force, or the total stress incorporating the pore pressure. In the finite element (FE) method both approaches prove equivalent at the global assembled level. However, at the element level apparently the equivalence does not hold, and the strength source related to the pore pressure seems to generate different local forces on the element nodes. The two formulations are briefly reviewed and discussed for triangular and tetrahedral finite elements. They are shown to yield different results at the global level as well in a three‐dimensional axisymmetric porous medium if the FE integration is performed using the average element‐wise radius. A modification to both formulations is suggested which allows to correctly solve the problem of a finite reservoir with an infinite pressure gradient, i.e. with a pore pressure discontinuity on its boundary. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Adiabatic chaos in the spin–orbit problem

We provide evidences that the angular momentum of a symmetric rigid body in a spin–orbit resonance can perform large scale chaotic motions on time scales which increase polynomially with the inverse of the oblateness of the body. This kind of irregular precession appears as soon as the orbit of the center of mass is non-circular and the angular momentum of the body is far from the principal directions with minimum (maximum) moment of inertia. We also provide a quantitative explanation of these facts by using the theory of adiabatic invariants, and we provide numerical applications to the cases of the 1:1 and 1:2 spin–orbit resonances.     

Two-dimensional dam break flooding simulation: a GIS-embedded approach

In the twenty-first century, around 200 notable dam and reservoir failures happened worldwide causing massive fatalities and economic costs. In order to reduce the losses, managers usually define mitigation strategies identifying flooding area due to dam break by using standalone hydrodynamic models and then importing the results within a GIS to perform risk analysis. This two-step procedure is time expensive, error prone due to export/import requirements and not user friendly. For this reason with this work, a new numerical model for the solution of the two-dimensional dam break problem has been implemented in the GRASS GIS with a GIS-embedded approach. The model solves the conservative form of the 2D shallow water equations using a finite volume method; the intercell flux is computed by one-side upwind conservative scheme extended to a two-dimensional problem. The newly developed GIS module, among others outputs, allows to derive maximum intensity maps that can be directly used for risk assessment. Finally, the model has been (1) tested against two standard synthetic problems referenced in literature showing differences in estimated water depth of 2, 3 and 15% and (2) verified against official flooding map of an existing dam (Verzasca) detecting 75% of similarity. The problem formulation, the new GRASS module and its validation is presented.     

Macroseismic effects highlight site response in Rome and its geological signature

A detailed analysis of the earthquake effects on the urban area of Rome has been conducted for the L??Aquila sequence, which occurred in April 2009, by using an online macroseismic questionnaire. Intensity residuals calculated using the mainshock and four aftershocks are analyzed in light of a very accurate and original geological reconstruction of the subsoil of Rome based on a large amount of wells. The aim of this work is to highlight ground motion amplification areas and to find a correlation with the geological settings at a subregional scale, putting in evidence the extreme complexity of the phenomenon and the difficulty of making a simplified model. Correlations between amplification areas and both near-surface and deep geology were found. Moreover, the detailed scale of investigation has permitted us to find a correlation between seismic amplification in recent alluvial settings and subsiding zones, and between heard seismic sound and Tiber alluvial sediments.     

IFKIS-Hydro: an early warning and information system for floods and debris flows

IFKIS-Hydro is an information and warning system for hydrological hazards in small- and medium-scale catchments. The system collects data such as weather forecasts, precipitation measurements, water level gauges, discharge simulations and local observations of event-specific phenomena. In addition, IFKIS-Hydro incorporates a web-based information platform, which serves as a central hub for the submission and overview of data. Special emphasis is given to local information. This is accomplished particularly by human observers. In medium-scale catchments, discharge forecast models have an increasing importance in providing valuable information. IFKIS-Hydro was developed in several test regions in Switzerland and the first results of its application are available now. The system is constantly extended to additional regions and may become the standard for warning systems in smaller catchments in Switzerland.     

Toward a rapid probabilistic seismic vulnerability assessment using satellite and ground-based remote sensing

Natural hazards such as earthquakes threaten millions of people all around the world. In a few decades, most of these people will live in fast-growing, inter-connected urban environments. Assessing risk will, therefore, be an increasingly difficult task that will require new, multidisciplinary approaches to be tackled properly. We propose a novel approach based on different imaging technologies and a Bayesian information integration scheme to characterize exposure and vulnerability models, which are among the key components of seismic risk assessment.     

Lava flow hazard at Nyiragongo volcano,D.R.C.

The 2002 eruption of Nyiragongo volcano constitutes the most outstanding case ever of lava flow in a big town. It also represents one of the very rare cases of direct casualties from lava flows, which had high velocities of up to tens of kilometer per hour. As in the 1977 eruption, which is the only other eccentric eruption of the volcano in more than 100 years, lava flows were emitted from several vents along a N–S system of fractures extending for more than 10 km, from which they propagated mostly towards Lake Kivu and Goma, a town of about 500,000 inhabitants. We assessed the lava flow hazard on the entire volcano and in the towns of Goma (D.R.C.) and Gisenyi (Rwanda) through numerical simulations of probable lava flow paths. Lava flow paths are computed based on the steepest descent principle, modified by stochastically perturbing the topography to take into account the capability of lava flows to override topographic obstacles, fill topographic depressions, and spread over the topography. Code calibration and the definition of the expected lava flow length and vent opening probability distributions were done based on the 1977 and 2002 eruptions. The final lava flow hazard map shows that the eastern sector of Goma devastated in 2002 represents the area of highest hazard on the flanks of the volcano. The second highest hazard sector in Goma is the area of propagation of the western lava flow in 2002. The town of Gisenyi is subject to moderate to high hazard due to its proximity to the alignment of fractures active in 1977 and 2002. In a companion paper (Chirico et al., Bull Volcanol, in this issue, 2008) we use numerical simulations to investigate the possibility of reducing lava flow hazard through the construction of protective barriers, and formulate a proposal for the future development of the town of Goma.     

POLARIX: a pathfinder mission of X-ray polarimetry

Since the birth of X-ray astronomy, spectral, spatial and timing observation improved dramatically, procuring a wealth of information on the majority of the classes of the celestial sources. Polarimetry, instead, remained basically unprobed. X-ray polarimetry promises to provide additional information procuring two new observable quantities, the degree and the angle of polarization. Polarization from celestial X-ray sources may derive from emission mechanisms themselves such as cyclotron, synchrotron and non-thermal bremsstrahlung, from scattering in aspheric accreting plasmas, such as disks, blobs and columns and from the presence of extreme magnetic field by means of vacuum polarization and birefringence. Matter in strong gravity fields and Quantum Gravity effects can be studied by X-ray polarimetry, too. POLARIX is a mission dedicated to X-ray polarimetry. It exploits the polarimetric response of a Gas Pixel Detector, combined with position sensitivity, that, at the focus of a telescope, results in a huge increase of sensitivity. The heart of the detector is an Application-Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC) chip with 105,600 pixels each one containing a full complete electronic chain to image the track produced by the photoelectron. Three Gas Pixel Detectors are coupled with three X-ray optics which are the heritage of JET-X mission. A filter wheel hosting calibration sources unpolarized and polarized is dedicated to each detector for periodic on-ground and in-flight calibration. POLARIX will measure time resolved X-ray polarization with an angular resolution of about 20 arcsec in a field of view of 15 × 15 arcmin and with an energy resolution of 20% at 6 keV. The Minimum Detectable Polarization is 12% for a source having a flux of 1 mCrab and 10⁵ s of observing time. The satellite will be placed in an equatorial orbit of 505 km of altitude by a Vega launcher. The telemetry down-link station will be Malindi. The pointing of POLARIX satellite will be gyroless and it will perform a double pointing during the earth occultation of one source, so maximizing the scientific return. POLARIX data are for 75% open to the community while 25% + SVP (Science Verification Phase, 1 month of operation) is dedicated to a core program activity open to the contribution of associated scientists. The planned duration of the mission is one year plus three months of commissioning and SVP, suitable to perform most of the basic science within the reach of this instrument. A nice to have idea is to use the same existing mandrels to build two additional telescopes of iridium with carbon coating plus two more detectors. The effective area in this case would be almost doubled.     

A novel methodological approach for land subsidence prediction through data assimilation techniques

Computational Geosciences - Anthropogenic land subsidence can be evaluated and predicted by numerical models, which are often built over deterministic analyses. However, uncertainties and...