Subinertial and seasonal variations in the Soya Warm Current revealed by HF ocean radars,coastal tide gauges,and bottom-mounted ADCP

Subinertial and seasonal variations in the Soya Warm Current (SWC) are investigated using data obtained by high frequency (HF) ocean radars, coastal tide gauges, and a bottom-mounted acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP). The HF radars clearly captured the seasonal variations in the surface current fields of the SWC. Almost the same seasonal cycle was repeated in the period from August 2003 to March 2007, although interannual variations were also discernible. In addition to the annual and interannual variations, the SWC exhibited subinertial variations with a period of 5–20 days. The surface transport by the SWC was significantly correlated with the sea level difference between the Sea of Japan and Sea of Okhotsk for both the seasonal and subinertial variations, indicating that the SWC is driven by the sea level difference between the two seas. The generation mechanism of the subinertial variation is discussed using wind data from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses. The subinertial variations in the SWC were significantly correlated with the meridional wind stress component over the region. The subinertial variations in the sea level difference and surface current delay from the meridional wind stress variations by one or two days. Sea level difference through the strait caused by wind-generated coastally trapped waves (CTWs) along the east coast of Sakhalin and west coast of Hokkaido is considered to be a possible mechanism causing the subinertial variations in the SWC.     

Nature versus nurture: the curved spine of the galaxy cluster X-ray luminosity–temperature relation

The physical processes that define the spine of the galaxy cluster X-ray luminosity–temperature ( L – T ) relation are investigated using a large hydrodynamical simulation of the universe. This simulation models the same volume and phases as the millennium simulation and has a linear extent of  500  h ⁻¹ Mpc  . We demonstrate that mergers typically boost a cluster along but also slightly below the L – T relation. Due to this boost, we expect that all of the very brightest clusters will be near the peak of a merger. Objects from near the top of the L – T relation tend to have assembled much of their mass earlier than an average halo of similar final mass. Conversely, objects from the bottom of the relation are often experiencing an ongoing or recent merger.     

National-scale analysis of low flow frequency: historical trends and potential future changes

The potential impact of climate change on hydrological extremes is of increasing concern across the globe. Here, a national-scale grid-based hydrological model is used to investigate historical trends and potential future changes in low flow frequency across Great Britain. The historical analyses use both observational data (1891–2015) and ensemble data from a regional climate model (1900–2006). The results show relatively few significant trends in historical low flows (2- or 20-year return period), whether based on 7- or 30-day annual minima. Significant negative trends seen in some limited parts of the country when using observational data are generally not seen when using climate model data. The future analyses use climate model ensemble data for both near future and far future time periods (2020–2049 and 2070–2099 respectively), which are compared to a baseline sub-period from the historical ensemble (1975–2004). The results show future reductions in low flows, which are generally larger in the south of the country, at the higher (20-year) return period, and for the later time period. Reductions are more limited if the estimates of future potential evaporation include the effect of increased carbon dioxide concentrations on stomatal resistance. Such reductions in river flow could have significant impacts on the aquatic environment and on agriculture, and present a challenge for water managers, especially as reductions in water supply are likely to occur alongside increases in demand.     

Trace element and isotopic variations in a zoned pluton and associated volcanic rocks,Unalaska Island,Alaska: A model for fractionation in the Aleutian calcalkaline suite

Trace elements, including rare earth elements (REE), exhibit systematic variations in plutonic rocks from the Captains Bay pluton which is zoned from a narrow gabbroic rim to a core of quartz monzodiorite and granodiorite. The chemical variations parallel those in the associated Aleutian calcalkaline volcanic suite. Concentrations of Rb, Y, Zr and Ba increase as Sr and Ti decrease with progressive differentiation. Intermediate plutonic rocks are slightly enriched in light REE (La/Yb=3.45–9.22), and show increasing light REE fractionation and negative Eu anomalies (Eu/Eu^*=1.03–0.584). Two border-zone gabbros have similar REE patterns but are relatively depleted in total REE and have positive Eu anomalies; indicative of their cumulate nature. Initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios in 8 samples (0.70299 to 0.70377) are comparable to those of volcanic rocks throughout the arc and suggest a mantle source for the magmas. Oxygen isotopic ratios indicate that many of the intermediate plutonic rocks have undergone oxygen isotopic exchange with large volumes of meteoric water during the late stages of crystallization; however no trace element or Sr isotopic alteration is evident.Major and trace element variations are consistent with a model of inward fractional crystallization of a parental high-alumina basaltic magma at low pressures (6 kb). Least-squares approximations and trace element fractionation calculations suggest that differentiation in the plutonic suite was initially controlled by the removal of calcic plagioclase, lesser pyroxene, olivine and Fe-Ti oxides but that with increasing differentiation and water fugacity the removal of sub-equal amounts of sodic plagioclase and hornblende with lesser Fe-Ti oxides effectively drove residual liquids toward dacitic compositions. Major and trace element compositions of aplites which intrude the pluton are not adequately explained by fractional crystallization. They may represent partial melts derived from the island arc crust. Similarities in Sr isotopes, chemical compositions and differentiation trends between the plutonic series and some Aleutian volcanic suites indicates that shallow-level fractional crystallization is a viable mechanism for generating the Aleutian calcalkaline rock series.LDGO Contribution no. 2964     

The impact of climate change on U. K. river flows: A preliminary comparison of two generations of probabilistic climate projections

The impacts of climate change on future river flows are a growing concern. Typically, impacts are simulated by driving hydrological models with climate model ensemble data. The U.K. Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) provided probabilistic projections, enabling a risk-based approach to decision-making under climate change. Recently, an update was released—UKCP18—so there is a need for information on how impacts may differ. The probabilistic projections from UKCP18 and UKCP09 are here applied using the change factor method with catchment-based hydrological modelling for 10 catchments across England. Projections of changes in median, mean, high, and low flows are made for the 2050s, using the A1B emissions scenario from UKCP09 and UKCP18 as well as the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios from UCKP18. The results show that, in all catchments for all flow measures, the central estimate of change under UKCP18 is similar to that from UKCP09 (A1B emissions). However, the probabilistic uncertainty ranges from UKCP18 are, in all cases, greater than from UKCP09, despite UKCP18 having a smaller ensemble size than UKCP09. Although there are differences between the central estimates of change using UKCP18 RCP4.5, RCP8.5 and A1B emissions, there is considerable overlap in the uncertainty ranges. The results suggest that existing assessments of hydrological impacts remain relevant, though it will be necessary to evaluate sensitive decisions using the latest projections. The analysis will aid development of advice to users of current guidance based on UKCP09 and help make decisions about the prioritization of further hydrological impacts work using UKCP18, which should also apply other products from UKCP18 like the 12-km regional data.     

Weathering of the black limestone of historical monuments (Ljubljana,Slovenia): Oxygen and sulfur isotope composition of sulfate salts

The black limestone widely used in Slovenian monuments, particularly in the baroque architecture, is deteriorating extensively due to salt crystallization. Samples of soluble salts from two important historical monuments (in Ljubljana, Slovenia) were investigated in terms of their mineral and isotopic (S and O) compositions. Results revealed the presence of gypsum and soluble salts of the MgSO₄·nH₂O series, such as starkeyite (MgSO₄·4H₂O), pentahydrite (MgSO₄·5H₂O) and hexahydrite (MgSO₄·6H₂O). Whereas black crusts and subflorescences consisted of gypsum, efflorescences appeared to be an assemblage of gypsum and MgSO₄ hydrates. Sample δ¹⁸O_sulfate values varied from ?1.9‰ to +5.5‰ vs. V-SMOW and δ³⁴S_sulfate values from ?19.8‰ to +3.2‰ vs. V-CDT. The respective isotopic composition of analysed outdoor and indoor monument samples indicated different sources of contamination.     

Mobility of heavy metals in harbour sediments: an environmental aspect for the reuse of contaminated dredged sediments

Different methods to determine the source strength of two harbour sediment fractions were applied and are discussed with a focus on As, Cd, Cr, Co, Cu, Mo, Ni, Pb, and Zn. Four different batch experiments were performed with both the sandy and the silty fractions of harbour sediments sampled at the disposal site for dredged material in Bremen Seehausen, north Germany. In addition to the batch experiments a modified centrifugation tube was used in order to obtain pore water from the unsaturated silty fraction. Column experiments were run with the sandy fraction of the material under saturated and unsaturated conditions, irrigated with artificial acid rain water. The results show that the legal threshold value applying to Mo and Pb is not exceeded in any of the methods applied to the sandy or the silty fractions. As for the sandy fraction, Cr and Co were also below this limit. Cd, Ni, Cu and Zn exceeded the threshold values in some of the batch experiments applied to both fractions, depending on the pH value and the elution agent used in the experiment. All results obtained from saturated column leaching were below the respective threshold values; however, it should be noted that the pH was between 7 and 8 throughout the entire experiment. This pH also applied to the unsaturated column, with the exception of the first flush. This first sample had a pH value of 3.8, which was due to sulphide oxidation at the beginning of the experiment and led to strong leaching of all the elements under study. As a consequence, arsenic, Cu and Ni values exceeded their respective threshold values.     

Development of regional future climate change scenarios in South America using the Eta CPTEC/HadCM3 climate change projections: climatology and regional analyses for the Amazon, S?o Francisco and the Paraná River basins

The objective of this study is to assess the climate projections over South America using the Eta-CPTEC regional model driven by four members of an ensemble of the Met Office Hadley Centre Global Coupled climate model HadCM3. The global model ensemble was run over the twenty-first century according to the SRES A1B emissions scenario, but with each member having a different climate sensitivity. The four members selected to drive the Eta-CPTEC model span the sensitivity range in the global model ensemble. The Eta-CPTEC model nested in these lateral boundary conditions was configured with a 40-km grid size and was run over 1961–1990 to represent baseline climate, and 2011–2100 to simulate possible future changes. Results presented here focus on austral summer and winter climate of 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100 periods, for South America and for three major river basins in Brazil. Projections of changes in upper and low-level circulation and the mean sea level pressure (SLP) fields simulate a pattern of weakening of the tropical circulation and strengthening of the subtropical circulation, marked by intensification at the surface of the Chaco Low and the subtropical highs. Strong warming (4–6°C) of continental South America increases the temperature gradient between continental South America and the South Atlantic. This leads to stronger SLP gradients between continent and oceans, and to changes in moisture transport and rainfall. Large rainfall reductions are simulated in Amazonia and Northeast Brazil (reaching up to 40%), and rainfall increases around the northern coast of Peru and Ecuador and in southeastern South America, reaching up to 30% in northern Argentina. All changes are more intense after 2040. The Precipitation–Evaporation (P–E) difference in the A1B downscaled scenario suggest water deficits and river runoff reductions in the eastern Amazon and S?o Francisco Basin, making these regions susceptible to drier conditions and droughts in the future.     

Observable blueshifts near compact objects

We show that observable blueshifted radiation can emanate from material freely falling toward compact objects. Using a fully relativistic treatment and considering possible blocking of photon trajectories by a neutron star or black hole, we demonstrate that blueshifts are observable.Supported in part by the National Science Foundation.