Valueloading And Uncertainty In A Sector-based Differentiation Scheme For Emission Allowances

The Triptych approach is a sectoral approach for differentiation of quantitative greenhouse gas emission reduction objectives. In this study we investigate the ranges in emission reduction targets that result from differences in valueladen assumptions and uncertainties in input data and parameters. In order to assess the effect of highly valueladen assumptions on resulting objectives we used two approaches. First we performed a sensitivity analysis. Then we elaborated the approach from four ideal-typical value-orientations: the administrator, the businessman, the campaigner and the survivor. For each of these value-orientations we specified corresponding sets of assumptions of highly valueladen parameters. Within each set, we also assessed uncertainties for the remaining parameters and input data. We assessed the strength and we quantified their inexactnesses with probability distribution functions. Next, we carried out Monte Carlo simulations in each of the four value-orientations to quantify error propagation from the inexactnesses in input data and parameters. We found targets for the year 2015 for Annex I countries differed up to around 20%-points over the four value-orientations. For developing countries differences in allowances were found up to the order of four. In addition, results are affected to a large extent by uncertainties in the other input data and parameters. Ranges in the outcome resulting from uncertainties are between 10 and 35%-points for Annex I countries, depending on the value-orientation chosen and between 20 and 120%-points for non-Annex I countries. However, the ranking of countries within the calculated differentiation remains roughly the same, an exception being the ranking that resulted from the businessman’s perspective. Other consistent combinations of valueladen assumptions may result in objectives that are outside the range that we based on the four value-orientations. We concluded that care should be taken when assessing valueloading in calculations schemes for emissions objectives based on a limited number of value-orientations only. Our analysis clearly underlines the relevance of making explicit policy variables in schemes for the differentiation of commitments. It is necessary to reach consensus on these variables if such schemes are to support negotiations on greenhouse gas emissions allowances.     

Depositional facies and stratal geometry of an Upper Carboniferous prograding and aggrading high-relief carbonate platform (Cantabrian Mountains, N Spain)

Seismic‐scale continuous exposures of an Upper Carboniferous (Bashkirian–Moscovian) carbonate platform (N Spain) provide detailed information about the lithofacies and stratal geometries (quantified with differential global positioning system measurements) of microbial boundstone‐dominated, steep prograding and aggrading platform margins. Progradational and aggradational platform‐to‐slope transects are characterized by distinct lithological features and stratal patterns that can be applied to the understanding of geometrically comparable, high‐relief depositional systems. The Bashkirian is characterized by rapid progradation at rates of 415–970 m My^?1. Characteristic outer‐platform facies are high‐energy grainstones with coated intraclasts, ooids and pisoids, moderate‐energy algal‐skeletal grainstones to packstones and lower energy algal packstone and boundstone units. The Moscovian aggradational phase is characterized by aggradation rates of 108 m My^?1. Coated‐grain shoals are less common, whereas crinoidal bars nucleated in well‐circulated settings below wave‐base. Boundstones form a belt (30–300 m wide) at the platform break and interfinger inwards with massive algal‐skeletal wackestones (mud‐rich banks). The progradational phase has divergent outer‐platform strata with basinward dips of 12° to 2°. Steep clinoforms with dips of 20–28° are 650–750 m in relief and possibly sigmoidal to concave in the lower part. The basinward‐dipping outer‐platform strata might be depositional for less than 6°, consistent with lithofacies deepening seaward. The basinward dip is attributed to the downward shift of upper‐slope boundstone, forced by late highstand and relative sea‐level fall, and to compaction‐induced differential subsidence during progradation. The aggradational phase is characterized by horizontally layered platform strata. Clinoforms steepen to 30–45° reaching heights of 850 m and are planar to concave. The evolution from progradation to aggradation, at the Bashkirian–Moscovian boundary, is attributed to increased foreland‐basin subsidence and decreased boundstone accumulation rates. Progradation was primarily controlled by boundstone growth rather than by highstand shedding from the platform top. Within the major phases, aggradational–progradational increments are produced by third‐ to fourth‐order relative sea‐level fluctuations.     

Lanthanide-humic substances complexation. I. Experimental evidence for a lanthanide contraction effect

The interaction of the lanthanides (Ln) with humic substances (HS) was investigated with a novel chemical speciation tool, Capillary Electrophoresis-Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (CE-ICP-MS). By using an EDTA-ligand competition method, a bi-modal species distribution of LnEDTA and LnHS is attained, separated by CE, and detected online by sector field ICP-MS. We quantified the binding of all 14 rare earth elements (REEs), Sc and Y with Suwannee river fulvic acid, Leonardite coal humic acid, and Elliot soil humic acid under environmental conditions (pH 6-9, 0.001-0.1 mol L⁻¹ NaNO₃, 1-1000 nmol L⁻¹ Ln, 10-20 mg L⁻¹ HS). Conditional binding constants for REE-HS interaction (K_c) ranged from 8.9 < log K_c < 16.5 under all experimental conditions, and display a lanthanide contraction effect, Δ_LK_c: a gradual increase in K_c from La to Lu by 2-3 orders of magnitude as a function of decreasing ionic radius. HS polyelectrolyte effects cause K_c to increase with increasing pH and decreasing ionic strength. Δ_LK_c increases significantly with increasing pH, and likely with decreasing ionic strength. Based on a strong correlation between Δ_LK_c values and denticity for organic acids, we suggest that HS form a range of tri- to tetra-dentate complexes under environmental conditions. These results confirm HS to be a strong complexing agent for Ln, and show rigorous experimental evidence for potential REE fractionation by HS complexation.     

A framework for dealing with uncertainty due to model structure error

Although uncertainty about structures of environmental models (conceptual uncertainty) is often acknowledged to be the main source of uncertainty in model predictions, it is rarely considered in environmental modelling. Rather, formal uncertainty analyses have traditionally focused on model parameters and input data as the principal source of uncertainty in model predictions. The traditional approach to model uncertainty analysis, which considers only a single conceptual model, may fail to adequately sample the relevant space of plausible conceptual models. As such, it is prone to modelling bias and underestimation of predictive uncertainty.     

An evaluation of the role of daphnids in controlling phytoplankton biomass in clear water versus turbid shallow lakes

Phytoplankton and zooplankton were monitored during 2 years in four eutrophic shallow lakes (two turbid and two clear water) from two wetland reserves in Belgium. In each wetland, phytoplankton biomass was significantly higher in the turbid lake than in the clear water lake. Although total macrozooplankton biomass and the contribution of daphnids to total zooplankton biomass was comparable in the clear water and the turbid lakes, the grazing pressure of macrozooplankton on phytoplankton as estimated from zooplankton to phytoplankton biomass ratios was higher in the clear water lakes. Estimated grazing by daphnids in the clear water lakes was always high in spring. In summer, however, daphnid biomass was low or daphnids were even absent during prolonged periods. During those periods phytoplankton was probably controlled by smaller macrozooplankton or by submerged macrophytes through nutrient competition, allelopathic effects or increased sedimentation rates in the macrophyte vegetation.     

Adaptive Delta Management for flood risk and resilience in Dordrecht,The Netherlands

Many countries across the world are experiencing strict austerity measures due to the economic crisis. As a consequence, public financing for stand-alone adaptation to flooding and drought will become scarcer in the (near) future, and this hampers the pursuit of resilience (i.e. the ability to remain functioning under a range of hazard magnitudes). In such times, key challenges for adaptation are further complicated by weaker investment dynamics and an increased tendency to ‘work in silos’. These are: to minimise regret with respect to maladaptation, which results from over- or under-investment in water hazard management; to exploit the opportunities for mainstreaming adaptation to flooding and drought into other investment agendas; and to deliver multiple benefits for society and the economy, such as increased biodiversity, liveability and competitiveness. These common challenges drive the best way in which to adapt to uncertain climate and socio-economic changes. In the Netherlands, the Delta Programme has developed and applied a structured and well-defined approach (called Adaptive Delta Management) for including and acting upon uncertainty around these future changes. This approach allows for greater transparency to decision-makers and stakeholders, because it adheres to four specific steps for strategy development. This paper presents the current understanding of Adaptive Delta Management and an illustration of the approach for the management of flood risk and resilience in Dordrecht. It examines the added value and limitations of Adaptive Delta Management concerning its application in the context of the Delta Programme, with a specific emphasis on the lessons learned from Dordrecht.

     

Gully-head morphology and implications for gully development on abandoned fields in a semi-arid environment,Sierra de Gata,southeast Spain

In this paper we examine whether gully-head morphology can be used as an indicator for gully development and, hence, for sediment production. A survey was conducted at five hillslopes in the Sierra de Gata where different types of channel heads occur close to each other. The survey included measurements of morphologic and pedologic properties, ground surface, channel and catchment characteristics of every gully head present (n = 59). On the basis of the observed morphologies, the heads were subdivided into four types: gradual, transitional (a short inclined section), abrupt and rilled-abrupt. The analyses showed that it is possible to explain the differences of gully heads and the role of some environmental factors on the basis of their morphologies, at least for the gradual and the abrupt types. The results suggested that steep headcuts (abrupt) were formed from secondary headcuts in the channel, which migrated upstream. The abrupt headcuts were always formed in more than one soil layer of which one was a resistant (stony) layer. However, shear strength measurements (at saturation) showed that the top layer was not always the most resistant one. Width–depth relationships indicated that gradual type headcuts were controlled by fluvial processes and abrupt headcuts by a combination of fluvial and mass-wasting processes. Gradual types occurred more downslope than the abrupt types suggesting that the incisions started by fluvial processes and migrated upwards when knickpoints developed in the channel. The rilled-abrupt types are still actively retreating. Thus, the abrupt types correspond to slower retreat rates. Abrupt gully heads may deteriorate into transitional types when plunge-pool erosion becomes less effective. The conceptual model is supported by data from ephemeral gullies in two other study areas (Sierra de la Torrecilla, Spain, and Alentejo, Portugal). Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

What is the role of the model in socio-hydrology? Discussion of “Prediction in a socio-hydrological world”*

Srinivasan et al. provide an interesting overview of the challenges for long-term socio-hydrological predictions. Although agreeing with most of the statements made, we argue for the need to take socio-hydrological analysis a step further and add some fundamental considerations, especially concerning the crucial importance of many (conscious and unconscious) assumptions made upfront of the modelling exercise. Eventual assumptions of technological determinism need correction: Models are not “value-free”, but uncertain, subjective and a product of the society in which they were shaped. It is important to acknowledge this uncertainty and bias when making decisions based on socio-hydrological models, considering also that these models are “social and political actors” in and by themselves. Furthermore, socio-hydrological models require a transdisciplinary approach, since physical water availability is only one of the boundary conditions for society. Last but not least, interaction with stakeholders remains important to enable understanding of what the variable of interest is.