Extreme climate events over northern China during the last 50 years

Climate extremes for agriculture-pasture transitional zone, northern China, are analyzed on the basis of daily mean temperature and precipitation observations for 31 stations in the period 1956-2001. Analysis season for precipitation is May-September, i.e., the rainy season. For temperature is the hottest three months, i.e., June through August. Heavy rain events, defined as those with daily precipitation equal to or larger than 50 mm, show no significant secular trend. A jump-like change, however, is found occurring in about 1980. For the period 1980-1993, the frequency of heavy rain events is significantly lower than the previous periods. Simultaneously, the occurring time of heavy rains expanded, commencing about one month early and ending one month later. Long dry spells are defined as those with longer than 10 days without rainfall. The frequency of long dry spells displays a significant (at the 99% confidence level) trend at the value of +8.3%/10a. That may be one of the major causes of the frequent droughts emerging over northern China during the last decades. Extremely hot and low temperature events are defined as the uppermost 10% daily temperatures and the lowest 10% daily temperatures, respectively. There is a weak and non-significant upward trend in frequency of extremely high temperatures from the 1950s to the mid-1990s. But the number of hot events increases as much as twice since 1997. That coincides well with the sudden rise in mean summer temperature for the same period. Contrary to that, the frequency of low temperature events have been decreasing steadily since the 1950s, with a significant linear trend of -15%/10a.     

A comparison of archaeointensity results from Chinese ceramics using microwave and conventional Thellier's and Shaw's methods

Palaeo- and archaeointensity determinations of the geomagnetic field are limited by mineralogical alteration that may occur when samples are heated in the laboratory to produce a TRM ( Thellier & Thellier 1959 ; Shaw 1974 ). By using microwave excitation of the magnetic grains we have been able to create a TRM without significantly heating the bulk samples, thereby avoiding thermal alteration ( Walton et al . 1993 ; Shaw et al . 1996 ). When applied to Peruvian ceramics in a manner analogous to the standard Thellier method, the microwave technique was found to reduce the scatter dramatically in the archaeointensity results ( Shaw et al . 1996 ). In the present study we apply this microwave technique to a collection of Chinese ceramics covering the time interval 2700–7500  yr BP. These ceramics have already been investigated using adaptations of both Thellier's ( Coe 1967 ) and Shaw's ( Rolph & Shaw 1985 ) palaeointensity methods ( Yang et al . 1993a ). Although an acceptable agreement was found between those two methods, the equivalent virtual axial dipole moments (VADMs) were significantly lower than for the global model of McElhinny & Senanayake (1982 ). The present study, using the microwave technique with cooling-rate correction, has provided more consistent VADMs, and is much closer to the global model.     

气候波动对莱州湾地区水资源及极端旱涝事件的影响

通过对莱州湾地区１９６０～１９９３年气候波动水资源及极端旱涝事件的影响分析,楞以看出该地区水资源对气候波动敏感。当降水增加１０％,全区水资源总量可增加２２％;若降水减少１０％,全区水资源总量则减少２３％。在气候处于少雨时期,极端干旱频高远高于多雨时期。同时还分析了未来气候变化对莱州湾地区水资源的可能影响。     

滇西北亚高山针叶林、硬叶栎类林的树种多样性

在滇西北香格里拉地区,以长苞冷杉(Abiesgeorgei)林、丽江云杉(Picealikiangensis)林作为亚高山针叶林的代表,以川滇高山栎(Quercusaquifolioides)林作为硬叶栎类林的代表,分别选择了6块样地,采用Shannon-Wiener多样性指数(H)、Simpson多样性指数的倒数(D')、Pielou均匀度指数(JH、JD)分别测定其树种多样性,并进行了比较研究。结果表明,三个森林类型的Shannon Wiener指数、Simpson指数的倒数、物种丰富度的顺序均为:长苞冷杉林>川滇高山栎林>丽江云杉林;而前两类森林的Pielou均匀度指数差异不大,但都高于丽江云杉林的均匀度指数值。滇西北的川滇高山栎具有很强的萌生能力。人工种植的亚高山针叶林的树种多样性较原始林低,需要较长时间的恢复过程。亚高山针叶林的存在极大地丰富了云南省的树种多样性,使云南植被的垂直地带性得到了充分体现。     

地表水地下水耦合模型在大型山丘平原交错区的研发与应用

大型山丘平原交错区复杂的自然地理和人类活动特征增加了水文循环研究和水资源评价、管理的难度,地表水地下水耦合模型作为流域/区域水文循环模拟的重要工具,为解决这类大型区域诸多水文水资源问题提供了便利.针对目前地表水地下水耦合模型难以兼顾精度和效率的问题,论文提出了一种新型半松散耦合机制,将三维有限差分地下水流数值模型嵌入半...     

廊道型乡村旅游地农户生计资本评价与空间格局特征——以大别山国家风景道为例

以大别山国家风景道为例,借鉴DFID可持续生计分析框架,构建农户生计评价指标体系,分析廊道型乡村旅游地农户生计资本的空间特征及影响因素.研究发现:①大别山旅游廊道内自然资本等有形生计资本权重较高,社会资本等无形生计资本权重较低.②农户生计资本具有较为明显的空间分布不均衡的特征,各乡镇以及乡镇内各村的农户生计资本水平也存...     

太原市城市复合生态系统调节服务时空格局演化及驱动机制研究

以太原市主城区为例,根据生态系统服务理论对太原不同土地利用类型所提供的正负生态系统调节服务价值分别进行测度计算,并综合分析城市复合生态系统调节服务的时空演化特征,最后,从直接原因(土地利用变化)和根本原因(空间城镇化、人口城镇化、产业空间组织与空间规划、政府相关政策与规划)2个方面,对太原市生态系统调节服务能力变化进行...     

湖南省凤凰县城雨洪管控路径

发达国家的经验表明,基于低影响开发的雨洪管理措施可以有效缓解城市雨洪灾害.聚焦中国海绵城市建设过程中新旧城区的关联性问题,提出"现状评估-低影响开发指标分解-建设效果模拟验证"的雨洪管控路径.以湖南省凤凰县为例,基于城市内涝模型,对新旧城区进行雨洪风险性评估与改造可行性评估,在现状评估基础上,构建低影响开发控制指标分解...     

基于三维四面体模型的西藏资源环境承载力综合评价

资源环境承载力定量评价与综合计量是资源环境承载力研究由分类走向综合的关键技术环节.本文从系统角度出发,提出了"人居环境适宜性分区——资源承载力限制性分类——社会经济发展适应性分等——资源环境承载力警示性分级"的资源环境承载力综合评价的研究思路与技术路线,构建了具有平衡态意义的资源环境承载力综合评价的三维四面体模型,对区...     

Population,urbanization and economic scenarios over the Belt and Road region under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

The countries throughout the Belt and Road region account for more than 60% of the world's population and half of the global economy. Future changes in this area will have significant influences on the global economic growth, industrial structure and resource allocation. In this study, the proportion of the urban population to the total population and the gross domestic product were used to represent the levels of urbanization and economic development, respectively. The population, urbanization and economic levels of the Belt and Road countries for 2020–2050 were projected under the framework of the IPCC's shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs), and the following conclusions are drawn.(1) The population, urbanization and economic levels in the Belt and Road region will likely increase under all five pathways. The population will increase by 2%–8%/10 a during 2020–2050 and reach 5.0–6.0 billion in 2050. Meanwhile, the urbanization rate will increase by 1.4%–7.5%/10 a and reach 49%–75%. The GDP will increase by 17%–34%/10 a and reach 134–243 trillion USD.(2) Large differences will appear under different scenarios. The SSP1 and SSP5 pathways demonstrate relatively high urbanization and economic levels, but the population size is comparatively smaller; SSP3 shows the opposite trend. Meanwhile, the economy develops slowly under SSP4, but it has a relatively high urbanization level, while SSP2 exhibits an intermediate trend.(3) In 2050, the population will increase relative to 2016 in most countries, and population size in the fastest growing country in Central Asia and the Middle East countries will be more than double. Urbanization will develop rapidly in South Asia, West Asia and Central Asia, and will increase by more than 150% in the fastest growing countries. The economy will grow fastest in South Asia, Southeast Asia and West Asia, and increase by more than 10 times in some counties with rapid economic development.