Analysis of drought determinants for the Colorado River Basin

Ongoing drought in the Colorado River Basin, unprecedented urban growth in the watershed, and numerical model simulations showing higher temperatures and lower precipitation totals in the future have all combined to heighten interest in drought in this region. In this investigation, we use principal components analysis (PCA) to independently assess the influence of various teleconnections on Basin-wide and sub-regional winter season Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI) and precipitation variations in the Basin. We find that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) explains more variance in PHDI than El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and the planetary temperature combined for the Basin as a whole. When rotated PCA is used to separate the Basin into two regions, the lower portion of the Basin is similar to the Basin as a whole while the upper portion, which contains the high-elevation locations important to hydrologic yield for the watershed, demonstrates poorly defined relationships with the teleconnections. The PHDI for the two portions of the Basin are shown to have been out of synch for much of the twentieth century. In general, teleconnection indices account for 19% of the variance in PHDI leaving large uncertainties in drought forecasting.     

Climate change links fate of glaciers and an endemic alpine invertebrate

Climate warming in the mid- to high-latitudes and high-elevation mountainous regions is occurring more rapidly than anywhere else on Earth, causing extensive loss of glaciers and snowpack. However, little is known about the effects of climate change on alpine stream biota, especially invertebrates. Here, we show a strong linkage between regional climate change and the fundamental niche of a rare aquatic invertebrate—the meltwater stonefly Lednia tumana—endemic to Waterton-Glacier International Peace Park, Canada and USA. L. tumana has been petitioned for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act due to climate-change-induced glacier loss, yet little is known on specifically how climate impacts may threaten this rare species and many other enigmatic alpine aquatic species worldwide. During 14 years of research, we documented that L. tumana inhabits a narrow distribution, restricted to short sections (~500 m) of cold, alpine streams directly below glaciers, permanent snowfields, and springs. Our simulation models suggest that climate change threatens the potential future distribution of these sensitive habitats and the persistence of L. tumana through the loss of glaciers and snowfields. Mountaintop aquatic invertebrates are ideal early warning indicators of climate warming in mountain ecosystems. Research on alpine invertebrates is urgently needed to avoid extinctions and ecosystem change.     

The Economic Contributions of Agricultural Tourism in Michigan

Family farms have long generated income from agricultural tourism including U‐picks, wagon rides, corn mazes and petting zoos, but contemporary agricultural tourism reflects much greater sophistication in terms of product variety, services, activities, and marketing. In Michigan, farm operators have moved beyond classic products and activities and the traditional consumer base. New sources of revenue derive from classes on beer, cider, mead and wine making, yarn spinning, perfume/soap‐making, farm markets, fishing, educational classes, school tours and hospitality including weddings and on‐farm restaurants. This case study of Michigan agricultural tourism reports results from a systematic survey of 154 agritourism operations conducted throughout the state during summer and fall of 2013 with a focus on the economic benefits of the fast‐changing sector. This study summarizes tax revenues, sales and employment trends for the farm operations participating in the survey but also quantitatively assesses the contribution of agricultural tourism to Michigan's economy through an extrapolation of the sample to estimate state‐wide totals. Results from OLS multivariate regression analysis intended to identify relationships between employment, advertising and scale to gross sales per day are also reported. These analyses show the importance of agricultural tourism to rural and peri‐urban places in Michigan and throughout the nation, while raising concerns about a growing division between large and small operators and what this growing gap may mean for the future of the sector.     

Freshwater geographies: Experimenting with knowing and doing geography differently

The fair and effective governance of freshwater is an increasingly prominent issue in New Zealand. Emerging from a complex of cultural, economic and biophysical narratives, freshwater geographies are multiple, varied and increasingly acknowledged as worthy of interdisciplinary scrutiny. In this commentary, we reflect on a series of generative spaces that we – as group of postgraduate geographers (plus supporting staff) – created to engage with the multiplicity of freshwater meanings both within and beyond the academy. Through this evolving epistemic‐political project, we significantly reframed our own understandings about what freshwater ‘is’ and how it ought to be governed. By pursuing a deeper understanding of how the world gets made, we expand our ability to know and make it differently.     

Distribution and abundance of macroinvertebrates on certain connecticut tidal marshes,with emphasis on dominant molluscs

The distribution of macroinvertebrates on Connecticut tidal marshes corresponds well with that reported for other marshes along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the United States. The greatest densities and biomass of the ribbed mussel,Geukensia demissa, were found on marshes in the central and western part of the state where both the annual production ofSpartina alterniflora and tidal range are large. *** DIRECT SUPPORT *** A01BY019 00011     

燕山地区褶皱冲断带和盆地中的晚侏罗世土城子组/后城组形成分析(英文)

土城子组/后城组为广泛分布在中国北方的燕山褶皱冲断带和盆地中晚侏罗世的典型碎屑岩沉积。本文主要是针对目前在燕山地区的通行的有关土城子组/后城组、及其之下的髫髻山组/蓝旗组,和上覆的张家口组/东岭台组火山岩的相关对比方法提出质疑。其他同行近期发表相关的氩-氩法和铀-铅法同位素测年数据指出髫髻山组/蓝旗组年龄为175~147Ma、土城子组/后城组年龄为156~139Ma、张家口组/东岭台组年龄为147~127Ma,显而易见,上述地层组的年龄是相互重叠的。这些测年数据说明以往的地层对比是有问题的,燕山造山带在中、晚侏罗世所发育的火山岩和沉积岩地层是穿时的。因此,传统上用(165±5)Ma和(135±5)Ma之间的区域不整合来作为划分髫髻山组和后城组的层序界限是值得商榷的。尽管一些髫髻山组的火山岩和土城子组/后城组的沉积岩是与向南或向北的冲断作用相伴生的,但在髫髻山组和土城子组/后城组沉积之间的30~35Ma的时间间隔内却是相对的构造平静期。这一结论是基于以往的髫髻山组和土城子组之间为假整合或平行不整合的观点所得出的。新近基于对承德盆地土城子组地层形成研究分析认为承德冲断层的实际位移距离应小于Davis等2001年所提出的位移距离,笔者接受这一观点。但笔者并不同意在承德地区土城子组的沉积主要是受控于承德北部的向南冲断作用。现今承德向形盆地主要是由于向北冲断的承德县冲断层下盘变形的结果,主要是(1)它向北发生倒转;(2)盆地南部的粗碎屑沉积的物源主要是来源于承德县的异地体。土城子组/后城组的沉积没有必要完全受控于构造作用。土城子组/后城组的沉积是紧随着在燕山部分地区发生的,持续了20~25Ma的髫髻山组/蓝旗组火山及岩浆活动。在中、晚侏罗世期间,燕山地区的岩浆活动必定导致地形的起伏,这就为快速剥蚀及粗碎屑的沉积提供了有利条件。最后需要指出的是,从前所提及的有关燕山带的土城子组/后城组和阴山带的大青山组的地层对比的依据并不存在。     

Contemporary Deposition and Long-Term Accumulation of Sediment and Nutrients by Tidal Freshwater Forested Wetlands Impacted by Sea Level Rise

Contemporary deposition (artificial marker horizon, 3.5 years) and long-term accumulation rates (²¹⁰Pb profiles, ~150 years) of sediment and associated carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) were measured in wetlands along the tidal Savannah and Waccamaw rivers in the southeastern USA. Four sites along each river spanned an upstream-to-downstream salinification gradient, from upriver tidal freshwater forested wetland (TFFW), through moderately and highly salt-impacted forested wetlands, to oligohaline marsh downriver. Contemporary deposition rates (sediment, C, N, and P) were greatest in oligohaline marsh and lowest in TFFW along both rivers. Greater rates of deposition in oligohaline and salt-stressed forested wetlands were associated with a shift to greater clay and metal content that is likely associated with a change from low availability of watershed-derived sediment to TFFW and to greater availability of a coastal sediment source to oligohaline wetlands. Long-term accumulation rates along the Waccamaw River had the opposite spatial pattern compared to contemporary deposition, with greater rates in TFFW that declined to oligohaline marsh. Long-term sediment and elemental mass accumulation rates also were 3–9× lower than contemporary deposition rates. In comparison to other studies, sediment and associated nutrient accumulation in TFFW are lower than downriver/estuarine freshwater, oligohaline, and salt marshes, suggesting a reduced capacity for surface sedimentation (short-term) as well as shallow soil processes (long-term sedimentation) to offset sea level rise in TFFW. Nonetheless, their potentially large spatial extent suggests that TFFW have a large impact on the transport and fate of sediment and nutrients in tidal rivers and estuaries.     

Leveraging modern climatology to increase adaptive capacity across protected area networks

Human-driven changes in the global environment pose an increasingly urgent challenge for the management of ecosystems that is made all the more difficult by the uncertain future of both environmental conditions and ecological responses. Land managers need strategies to increase regional adaptive capacity, but relevant and rapid assessment approaches are lacking. To address this need, we developed a method to assess regional protected area networks across biophysically important climatic gradients often linked to biodiversity and ecosystem function. We plot the land of the southwestern United States across axes of historical climate space, and identify landscapes that may serve as strategic additions to current protected area portfolios. Considering climate space is straightforward, and it can be applied using a variety of relevant climate parameters across differing levels of land protection status. The resulting maps identify lands that are climatically distinct from existing protected areas, and may be utilized in combination with other ecological and socio-economic information essential to collaborative landscape-scale decision-making. Alongside other strategies intended to protect species of special concern, natural resources, and other ecosystem services, the methods presented herein provide another important hedging strategy intended to increase the adaptive capacity of protected area networks.