New seismo-stratigraphic and marine magnetic data of the Gulf of Pozzuoli (Naples Bay, Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy): inferences for the tectonic and magmatic events of the Phlegrean Fields volcanic complex (Campania)

A detailed reconstruction of the stratigraphic and tectonic setting of the Gulf of Pozzuoli (Naples Bay) is provided on the basis of newly acquired single channel seismic profiles coupled with already recorded marine magnetics gathering the volcanic nature of some seismic units. Inferences for the tectonic and magmatic setting of the Phlegrean Fields volcanic complex, a volcanic district surrounding the western part of the Gulf of Naples, where volcanism has been active since at least 50 ka, are also discussed. The Gulf of Pozzuoli represents the submerged border of the Phlegrean caldera, resulting from the volcano-tectonic collapse induced from the pyroclastic flow deposits of the Campanian Ignimbrite (35 ka). Several morpho-depositional units have been identified, i.e., the inner continental shelf, the central basin, the submerged volcanic banks and the outer continental shelf. The stratigraphic relationships between the Quaternary volcanic units related to the offshore caldera border and the overlying deposits of the Late Quaternary depositional sequence in the Gulf of Pozzuoli have been highlighted. Fourteen main seismic units, both volcanic and sedimentary, tectonically controlled due to contemporaneous folding and normal faulting have been revealed by geological interpretation. Volcanic dykes, characterized by acoustically transparent sub-vertical bodies, locally bounded by normal faults, testify to the magma uprising in correspondence with extensional structures. A large field of tuff cones interlayered with marine deposits off the island of Nisida, on the western rim of the gulf, is related to the emplacement of the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff deposits. A thick volcanic unit, exposed over a large area off the Capo Miseno volcanic edifice is connected with the Bacoli-Isola Pennata-Capo Miseno yellow tuffs, cropping out in the northern Phlegrean Fields.     

Reply to Discussion of “Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example”*

ABSTRACT

Ertsen discusses the representation of reality and uncertainty in our paper, raising three critical points. In response to the first, we agree that discussion of different interpretations of the concept of uncertainty is important when developing perceptual models – making different uncertainty interpretations explicit was a key motivation behind our method. Secondly, we do not, as Ertsen suggests, deny anyone who is not a “certified” scientist to have relevant knowledge. The elicitation of diverse views by discussing perceptual models is a basis for open discussion and decision making. Thirdly, Ertsen suggests that it is not useful to treat socio-hydrological systems as if they exist. We argue that we act as “pragmatic realists” in most practical applications by treating socio-hydrological systems as an external reality that can be known. But the uncertainty that arises from our knowledge limitations needs to be recognized, as it may impact on practical decision making and associated costs.     

An extreme value analysis of the flow of Burbage Brook

An extreme value analysis of the flow of Burbage Brook is carried out by modelling peaks over a high threshold. The aims are to illustrate recently developed statistical techniques and to report on interesting features of the flow of the brook over a 58-year period. Peak flows are found to show marked seasonal variation and a downward trend. Then-year return level is estimated for various values ofn, and the reliability of the estimates is assessed.     

Assessing spatial likelihood of flooding hazard using naïve Bayes and GIS: a case study in Bowen Basin,Australia

Flooding hazard evaluation is the basis of flooding risk assessment which has significances to natural environment, human life and social economy. This study develops a spatial framework integrating naïve Bayes (NB) and geographic information system (GIS) to assess flooding hazard at regional scale. The methodology was demonstrated in the Bowen Basin in Australia as a case study. The inputs into the framework are five indices: elevation, slope, soil water retention, drainage proximity and density. They were derived from spatial data processed in ArcGIS. NB as a simplified and efficient type of Bayesian methods was used, with the assistance of remotely sensed flood inundation extent in the sampling process, to infer flooding probability on a cell-by-cell basis over the study area. A likelihood-based flooding hazard map was output from the GIS-based framework. The results reveal elevation and slope have more significant impacts on evaluation than other input indices. Area of high likelihood of flooding hazard is mainly located in the west and the southwest where there is a high water channel density, and along the water channels in the east of the study area. High likelihood of flooding hazard covers 45 % of the total area, medium likelihood accounts for about 12 %, low and very low likelihood represents 19 and 24 %, respectively. The results provide baseline information to identify and assess flooding hazard when making adaptation strategies and implementing mitigation measures in future. The framework and methodology developed in the study offer an integrated approach in evaluation of flooding hazard with spatial distributions and indicative uncertainties. It can also be applied to other hazard assessments.