Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example

ABSTRACT

Characterizing, understanding and better estimating uncertainties are key concerns for drawing robust conclusions when analyzing changing socio-hydrological systems. Here we suggest developing a perceptual model of uncertainty that is complementary to the perceptual model of the socio-hydrological system and we provide an example application to flood risk change analysis. Such a perceptual model aims to make all relevant uncertainty sources – and different perceptions thereof – explicit in a structured way. It is a first step to assessing uncertainty in system outcomes that can help to prioritize research efforts and to structure dialogue and communication about uncertainty in interdisciplinary work.     

Opportunities for satellite remote sensing in hydrology and water management

Abstract

Hydrology and Water Management are key areas of applied science in the current world economy. Increasingly hydrologiste are looking to satellite remote sensing to help meet their needs for near real‐time data to measure, monitor and model water in the environment. However, progress has been hindered by the lack of a dedicated series of hydro‐logical satellites.

The paper summarises studies undertaken on an international basis in order to influence satellite, sensor and ground segment design operations to suit the needs of water management.     

Bacteria‐sediment associations in an alpine,freshwater environment and their effects on particle size,density and settling velocity

This study measures the presence of bacteria‐sediment associations (BSAs) in an alpine, glacier‐fed watershed in the Southern Coast Mountains of British Columbia, Canada. The impact of BSAs on the creation of flocculated particles and their settling velocity are quantified using a laser transmissometer. Results from the study indicate that BSAs are present in the watershed and vary over both space and time. The percentage of bacteria associated with sediment particles was found to range from < 1% to 40%. Major sources of planktonic bacteria such as agricultural land and wastewater treatment outflow co‐occur with large decreases in the BSA ratio. Laboratory analysis demonstrates that an increase in the concentration of bacteria was associated with a decrease in the volume concentration of small particles, and a decrease in both estimated density and measured settling velocity for particles in larger size classes; consistent with flocculated particles of increasing complexity arising from combinations of primary particles and/or BSAs. Paleoenvironmental reconstructions using laminated lake sediments in alpine, glacier‐fed systems benefit from a fuller understanding of the geomorphologic processes by which they formed. While bacteria are noted to enhance formation of flocculated particles in laboratory systems, their impact upon geomorphic processes in natural systems have yet to be fully explored. © 2018 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Uy phoenicis: RR lyrae variable,not dwarf nova

Stellar and atomic systems obey analogous angular momentum/mass relationships and analogous angular momentum/magnetic dipole moment relationships. The dimensional constants in both pairs of angular momentum laws appear to be related by a simple set of self-similar scaling equations, suggesting that atomic and stellar systems may be self-similar.     

Volcanic lithogeochemistry and alteration at the Delbridge massive sulfide deposit, Noranda, Quebec

The Delbridge orebody occurs within a thick sequence (> 1 km) of porphyritic to aphyric massive rhyolite and rhyolite breccia of the Archean Blake River Group. The orebody produced ≈ 370,000 tonnes grading 0.61% Cu, 9.6% Zn, 110 g/t Ag and 2.1 g/t Au (1969–1971). The footwall consists of massive quartz porphyritic rhyolite mantled by proximal rhyolite breccias. An irregular chloritic alteration pipe with mineralization is subvertical to the ore lens. The orebody occurs at a thick cherty horizon within rhyolite breccia, and is overlain by a succession of mafic debris flows, porphyritic to aphyric massive rhyolite flows, and finally andesite. The main alteration assemblage in the rhyolite units is quartz-albite-sericite-chlorite-carbonate. Immobile element plots and rare-earth element data indicate that the footwall rhyolite flows and proximal breccias are tholeiitic to transitional (Zr/Y = 3.5–5.5; La_N/Yb_N = 1.7–2.6), whereas hangingwall rhyolite flows are mildly calc-alkaline (Zr/Y = 6.5–7.5; La_N/Yb_N = 2.8–3.8). These two rhyolite types also have separate alteration lines in Ti-Zr space and in various immobile element plots. The identification of chemically different rhyolites above and below the orebody provides markers that can be identified and traced even where strongly altered. An intrusive rhyolite mass in the footwall is chemically identical to the hangingwall aphyric rhyolite flows, and is interpreted as the feeder to these flows. Calculated mass changes in the footwall rhyolite commonly are large, and result from major silica change (±30%), significant loss of Na₂O + CaO, and important additions of K₂O and FeO + MgO. The margins of the pipe show net mass gain, whereas the interior of the pipe shows net mass loss. Hangingwall rhyolite shows mass changes that generally are much smaller than in the footwall. Felsic rocks in the silica-sericite alteration zone up to ≈ 200 m from the orebody have high δ¹⁸O values of 10–12‰, reflecting low-temperature alteration. The orebody occurs near the contact between a mainly tholeiitic rhyolite footwall and an overlying sequence of mildly calc-alkaline rhyolite then andesite.     

Field observations of stratified atmospheric flow above an obstacle

In a study using the plume from the Four Corners power plant, near Farmington, N.M., lee waves were observed during times when the plume flowed across the Hogback. Wavelengths were typically about 1.2 km; wave amplitudes were more variable, ranging from 20 to 100 m. The observed amplitudes imply an obstacle that is broader and shallower than is actually the case. This is in agreement with laboratory studies that show the existence of regions of complex flow both upstream and downstream from an obstacle, which have the effect of broadening the region over which laminar flow occurs. Visual observation, measurement of the plume cross-sectional area both upstream and downstream from the Hogback, and measurement of plume aerosol concentrations show that turbulent and eddy flow over and downwind from the Hogback increase the rate of mixing of the plume with the surrounding atmosphere. This in turn increases the rate at which plume components come into contact with the ground.     

An extreme value analysis of the flow of Burbage Brook

An extreme value analysis of the flow of Burbage Brook is carried out by modelling peaks over a high threshold. The aims are to illustrate recently developed statistical techniques and to report on interesting features of the flow of the brook over a 58-year period. Peak flows are found to show marked seasonal variation and a downward trend. Then-year return level is estimated for various values ofn, and the reliability of the estimates is assessed.     

Visual pollution in a national park

National Parks in Britain are not in areas of wilderness, but inhabited and farmed land. This makes management of the Parks difficult and insufficient moral and financial support from local authorities has led to their progressive deterioration. They are designed for the enjoyment of the public, but can they survive ‘people pollution’?