121 a 梅雨序列及其时变特征分析

对2001--2005年长江中下游梅雨期进行了划分。确定的梅雨参数包括梅雨集中期、梅雨长度、梅雨量、梅雨强度、入梅日期和出梅日期等。然后对1885--2005年共121a的长江中下游5站逐年的梅雨参数进行时间演变分析。从各梅雨参数趋势变化上可估计,在未来10a里,梅雨量仍将偏多,梅雨长度将偏长,入梅日期将偏早,出梅日期也将偏早。对梅雨参数进行Morlet小波分析得出,从1980s开始,入梅日期和出梅日期都出现明显的2～3a和6a的年际振荡周期;入梅日期还出现明显的12a左右的年代周期,出梅日期出现了16a左右的年代际周期。进入1990s后,梅雨长度出现了8a的年际周期,梅雨量则出现明显的4a和8a的年际周期以及一个近16a的年代际周期。     

Numerical Simulations of Intense Meiyu Rainfall in 1991 over the Changjiang and Huaihe River Valleys by a Regional Climate Model with p-σ Incorporated Coordinate System

1.IntroductionAlthoughGCMsprovedsuccessfulinreproducingthebasicfeaturesoflarge--scaleatmosphericcirculations(Gates,1992),theyaretoocoarsetodescribethedetailsofregionalclimatepatterns(Grotch,etal.,1991).Intheregionswheretheatmosphericdynamicalandphysicalforcingsvaryonascaleoflessthanafewhundredkilometers,suchasinthepresenceofcomplexterrain,afactorof10orgreaterincreaseinmodelhorizontalresolutionmayberequiredtosimulatetherealisticregionalresponsestothefutureclimatechanges.Duetothelimitationsinb…     

CHARACTERISTICS OF 10-DAY MEAN SURFACE LATENT HEAT FLUX VARIATIONS IN THE SCS MONSOON REGION AND POSSIBLE CONNECTIONS WITH THE SCS SUMMER MONSOON ONSET

The temporal and spatial variations of the ten-day mean surface latent heat flux (TMLH) havebeen analyzed in this paper based on the data of NCEP from January of 1979 to December of 1995in the South China Sea (SCS) monsoon region. It is found that there exist maximum centers ofTMLH standard deviation in the northwest Indochina and the Indian Peninsula as well as thewestern Pacific, SCS, the Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal, and their locations and strengthschange significantly during the period of SCS monsoon onset. A positive zonal deviation of TMLHoccurs first in the Indochina Peninsula, apparently earlier than that in the Indian Peninsula. Theappearance of maximum positive zonal deviations of TMLH approximately coincides with thesummer monsoon onset. Over the Indochina and Indian Peninsulas, the TMLH increases graduallywith a small amplitude of variation before the onset of summer monsoon, and the rate of increase issignificantly enhanced after the onset of the monsoon; whereas over the ocean, TMLH decreasesbefore the monsoon onset, varies little during the period of monsoon and increases gradually afterthe ending of monsoon. Therefore, it seems that the surface latent heat flux plays an importantrole in the maintenance of the summer monsoon, and its variation is an phenomenon accompanyingthe onset of summer monsoon.     

全球海气相互作用关键区及区内气候特征分析

采用合成分析方法研究了南海夏季风的爆发过程及其前期征兆。研究结果表明，在南海夏季风爆发之前，对流首先在中南半岛出现，随后在临近南海夏季风爆发时，菲律宾附近也出现对流活动，这表明菲律宾附近对流活动的出现也是引起南海夏季风爆发的原因之一。在南海夏季风爆发之前，赤道印度洋上（75～95°E）的赤道西风有一次明显的增强过程，它对南海夏季风的爆发也起了十分重要的作用，因为一方面它通过赤道西风的东扩促使南海南部的赤道西风建立和增强；另一方面，它又通过西风的北抬以及激发孟加拉湾的对流扰动发展和北移东传，诱使我国华南沿海西风的增强和南压，从而对南海夏季风爆发产生影响。进一步的研究还表明，印度洋赤道西风和南海南部赤道西风的增强又分别与南半球马斯克林高压、澳大利亚高压的增强以及索马里、85°E附近和105 °E附近向北越赤道气流的增强有关。     

区域气候模式中云量参数化方案的研究

首先统计并分析了模式区域内夏季平均的云量分布状况，然后在一有限区域模式中，引进了云－辐射计算模式。比较了３种不同的云量参数化方案，最后提出了一种考虑了大气相对湿度、垂直运动速度的本模式的云量参数化方案，并简要介绍了模式引入不同方案后的模拟结果。模拟结果表明，本模式的方案模拟的云量分布及气候要素场都与实况最接近，说明这一机制反映了云在气候系统中的反馈作用。不同的区域模式宜用不同的云量参数化方案。云量     

NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF OCEANIC ELEMENTS IN THE SCS AND ITS NEIGHBORING SEA REGIONS FROM JANUARY TO AUGUST IN 1998

Studies on oceanic conditions in the South China Sea (SCS) and adjacent waters are helpful for thorough understanding of summer monsoons in East Asia. To have a 3-dimensional picture of how the oceanic currents vary, the oceanic elements in the South China Sea (SCS) and its neighboring sea regions in January～August 1998 have been simulated by using the improved Princeton University Ocean Model (POM) in this paper. The main results are in good agreement with that of ocean investigations and other simulations. The results show that the SCS branch of the Kuroshio Current is an important part in the north SCS from January to August; the SCS warm current is reproduced clearly in all months except in winter; there always exists a large-scale anti-cyclonic vortex on the right of the Kuroshio Current from January to August. In the model domain, the surface currents of the SCS have the closest relations with the monsoon with an apparent seasonal variation. In addition, the developing characteristics of the SST in the SCS and its neighboring sea regions before and after the summer monsoon onset are also well simulated by the improved POM. Those are the foundation for developing a coupled regional ocean-atmospheric model system.     

青藏高原地区流场的一种诊断分析方法

本文采用一个有限区域七层原始方程诊断模式,利用己知的多年1月平均高度场,对方程进行迭代求解,得到水平和垂直运动场。通过对结果的分析,发现用此方法得到的诊断风场比地转风场更接近实际,特别是急流区。另外发现高原地区冬季的平均流场具有以下几个特征:1、从高原对气流的影响,可以把对流层分为三种不同情况,850mb以下为摩擦影响层;700—300mb为绕流影响层,400mb以上高原对气流除了绕流分支作用外,爬坡作用明显增加;可到了125mb这种机械障碍物作用己明显减少。2、高原地区的垂直运动与降水量有较好的对应关系,尤其是高原南坡的上升运动有一大降水带与之对应,最大值可达5×10~(-3)mb/秒。3、从经向垂直环流图的分析发现,紧贴高原南坡出现一个局地哈德莱环流,它与高原南部的哈德莱环流是分开的两支。它进一步证实了高原地区确实存在一个独立的季风系统。     

EFFECTS OF BOUNDARY LAYER PARAMETERIZATION ON THE MONTHLY MEAN SIMULATION

Treatments of the boundary layer in a five-layer primitive equation model with mixed P—σcoordinates are improved by incorporating similarity theory,which is widely used at present.Twokinds of parameterization schemes of the boundary layer are designed,and static test and numericalsimulation are performed.It is found that the iterative scheme can fairly improve the simulation ofthe mean climate field in July.The abnormally strong heat low over the Tibetan Plateau isweakened to some extent.     

局地云量变化气候效应的数值模拟

本文用统计得到的东半球夏季平均云量资料，利用改进的云－辐射计算模式，在三维有限区域模式中模拟局地云量变化的气候效应。模拟结果表明，高原地区和热带辐合带云量变化造成的气候效应都主要表现在青藏高原地区。在低反照率时，高原地区云量减少使该地区地表加热，引起高低空气压系统加强；高反照率时结果相反。热带辐合带云量减少会引起青藏高原地区降温和气压系统减弱。     

SEASONAL PERSISTENCE OF THE WEST PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH THE SURFACE HEAT FLUX ANOMALY

This paper investigates the interannual variation of the West Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) intensity based on the data compiled by the Chinese National Climate Center. Monthly reanalysis data from National Centers for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) are also used to study the lead-lag relationship between WPSH intensity and surface heat flux anomalies. The three major findings are as follows: First, WPSH intensity presents good seasonal persistence, especially from winter to the ensuing summer. Persistence is more significant after 1977, especially from spring to summer, and from summer to autumn; persistence of anticyclonic anomalies are significantly better than cyclonic anomalies. Second, surface heat flux tends to present opposite anomalous patterns between the strong and weak years of the WPSH intensity, which is especially valid at the latent heat flux over the ocean. Simultaneous correlations between surface heat flux and WPSH intensity in each of the seasons are marked by similar key areas. Finally, surface heat flux from the preceding winter of a strong summer WPSH is quite similar to strong spring WPSH, but the positive anomalies over the northwest Pacific and south of Japan are notably stronger. The situations in the weak years are similar except for those over the northwest Pacific: winter surface heat flux shows negative anomalies for a weak spring WPSH, but positive anomalies for a weak summer WPSH. It is suggested that surface heat flux in the previous winter plays an important role in maintaining the WPSH intensity in the ensuing spring and summer.