我国城市空气质量预报方法简介(摘要)

介绍了城市空气质量预报模式系统要求达到的技术指标和近几年我国城市空气质量预报的主要方法,并对预报方法进行了对比,认为城市空气质量预报是切实可行的,并且能够取得较好的预测精度;但由于各污染物出现高浓度的机理仍不是十分清楚,所以在污染物浓度出现骤升骤降的日子,各模式不能很好地反映,因此有待进一步深入研究,不断完善和开发多种预报方法.     

林草和梯田措施对小流域降雨—径流—输沙过程的影响分析

定量评估林草、梯田的减水减沙作用对黄河流域水土流失防治和生态保护具有重要意义.该文以偏关河偏关水文站以上流域和清涧河子长水文站以上流域为研究区,分别应用改进的分布式LCM-M USLE坡面水沙联动模型和原模型进行天然时期(1980s)和现状年(2010s)的"降雨—径流—输沙"过程模拟,计算坡面汇流过程中林草、梯田及其耦合措施的减水减沙作用并分析主要影响因素.结果表明:1)改进后模型适用于现状年的径流(输沙)量模拟,可反映下垫面显著变化(坡改梯和植被恢复)对径流、泥沙坡面汇流的影响;2)梯田措施的单位面积径流(输沙)削减量大于林草措施,径流(输沙)削减率显著小于林草措施,且林草和梯田措施的径流(输沙)削减率之和略大于二者耦合的径流(输沙)削减率;3)流域尺度梯田措施下径流(输沙)削减率的影响因素排序为梯田比>梯田集水区与流域面积比>田埂完整度,林草措施下影响因素排序为林草面积比>植被覆盖度>林草减水面积比.     

基于SAR海浪方向谱的中国海海浪特性研究

基于Hasselmanns提出的SAR反演海浪方向谱的MPI算法,对2003-2012年间的中国海Envisat ASAR波模式数据进行了海浪方向谱反演。统计由反演的海浪方向谱得到的海浪有效波高数据,依据海浪浪级的划分,分析了中国海海浪浪级的分布特点,获得一些有参考价值的结果:(1)中国海3-4级海况的年出现概率最高,达85%;(2)中国海累月不同浪级的海浪出现概率分布符合高斯分布函数:f(x)=a*exp(-((x-1-b)/c)^2);(3)分析上述高斯分布函数的拟合系数a、b、c,发现其分布也有一定规律性。同时应用反演得到的海浪有效波高、平均波周期、平均波向等数据,分析了中国海的海浪时空分布特性,得到一些可供参考的结果。     

河流健康及其指标

Based on the author’s practice in river harnessing, this paper defines that a healthy river is a river whose social and natural functions can be balanced or compromised in terms of the socio-economic, ecological and environmental values associated with the river. The environmental values of river systems should be judged according to the following criteria: the signal of a healthy river should be associated with favorable riverbed, acceptable water quality, sustainable river ecosystem and compatible runoff. The river health criterion should reflect the river’s natural function status which includes the riverbed, water quality, river ecosystem and runoff. But, the variety and quantity would be different for different rivers depending on different natural features and social background. The standards to be adopted for a healthy river should be determined according to the requirements for maintaining river’s normal natural functions and the extent whether the social and natural functions could perform in a balanced way, and also the standards adopted should be adjusted according to the change of the given conditions. The key factor of river health is the enough and clean flow. The authors stressed that human activities would hurt the river health which include excessive water diversion and excessive power generation from the river, improper regulation of flood and sediment, and over discharge of sewage into the river and over change in fish habitat. Taking the Yellow River as a case, this paper also discussed the method to identify what are the standards of a healthy river as well as environmental flows. Foundation: Chinese National Research Program, No.2006BAB06B; National Key Basic Research Development Program of China “973”, No.G1999043601 Author: Liu Changming, Academician     

黄河中游多沙粗沙区（渭河段）土地利用对植被盖度的影响

针对黄河中游多沙粗沙区植被变化及其影响因素研究薄弱环节,利用MSS、TM和环境星CCD等多源遥感数据,运用相邻图幅递进回归分析消除时相差异后反演植被盖度,人机交互式解译土地利用,研究黄河中游多沙粗沙区（渭河段） 1978-2010 年间3 个时期土地利用对植被盖度的影响。结果表明：（1） 研究区内植被盖度已显著恢复,植被变化有较强的波动性和异质性;（2） 土地利用已发生明显变化,土地利用变化有较强的时空分异特征;（3） 土地利用转型和渐变均有利于促进植被盖度恢复,但土地利用转型对植被恢复的贡献更突出;（4） 土地利用对植被盖度的影响有一定的复杂性和差异性,区域植被持续恢复迫切需要有针对性的土地利用转型与生态系统优化策略。     

江苏兴化ZK10孔第四纪多重地层研究

通过对江苏兴化ZK10孔岩石地层、生物地层、磁性地层及年代地层的研究,确定了该孔第四纪年代地层序列:1第四纪底界置于松山/高斯极性世分界处,埋深212m,距今2.58Ma。下更新统包括五队镇组下段、中段及上段的中下部,对应孢粉组合Ⅰ-1和Ⅰ-2。2早、中更新世界线与布容/松山极性世界线吻合,距今0.78Ma,埋深约120m,位于孢粉Ⅰ-2与Ⅱ带的分界处。中更新统包括五队镇组上段顶部、小腰庄组下段及上段的中下部。五队镇组是包含下、中更新统的跨时岩石地层单位。3中、晚更新世界线埋深81.5m,120ka BP左右,置于孢粉带Ⅱ与Ⅲ-1的分界处,与小腰庄组和灌南组分界线基本吻合。上更新统包括小腰庄组上段上部及灌南组。小腰庄组是包含中、上更新统的跨时地层单位。上更新统包括Ⅲ-1、Ⅲ-2、Ⅳ和Ⅴ孢粉带。4晚更新世与全新世界线埋深12.25m,距今10ka BP左右,位于Ⅴ与Ⅵ孢粉带分界处。全新统为淤尖组,对应孢粉Ⅵ带。     

黄土丘陵区雨强对水流含沙量的影响

To study the effects of changes in the rainfall intensity on sediment concentrations in the Loess Plateau,the observed rainfall intensities and sediment concentrations from three typical small watersheds were used to analyze the relationship between these parameters.The results showed that the sediment concentration generally increased with the increasing rainfall intensity on slope scale.However,at watershed scale,a significant threshold phenomenon was observed for the effects of the rainfall intensity on the sediment concentration.When the rainfall intensity exceeds the threshold,the flood sediment concentration will no longer increase with the increase in the rainfall intensity.The rainfall intensity threshold increased with increasing vegetation coverage.The rainfall intensity threshold was 10–15 mm/h during 1956–1969,reached 20 mm/h from 1990 to 1997 and is approximately 40 mm/h at present.Due to a rainfall intensity of 10–15 mm/h almost happened every year,the vegetation did not change much from the 1950s to 1980s.Sediment yield mainly depends on soil erosion caused by surface flow,but the surface flow speed does not increase indefinitely with the increase in the flow discharge.Thus,the annual maximum sediment concentration of the tributaries in the loess area has been basically stable before the 1990s.