Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.     

临界转换的早期预警信号

从生态系统到金融市场和气候在内的很多复杂动力系统,都会有临界点,在这样的点上系统可能会发生突变,从而演变到一个对立的动力模式上。在这样的临界点到达之前对其进行预测极为困难,但是现在,不同科学领域的研究工作表明,普遍性的早期预警信号有迹可循。对一系列不同类型的系统来说,这些信号会指示是否正在趋近一个临界阈值。     

Evolution of the mass function of dark matter haloes

We use a high-resolution ΛCDM numerical simulation to calculate the mass function of dark matter haloes down to the scale of dwarf galaxies, back to a redshift of 15, in a  50 h ⁻¹ Mpc  volume containing 80 million particles. Our low-redshift results allow us to probe low-σ density fluctuations significantly beyond the range of previous cosmological simulations. The Sheth & Tormen mass function provides an excellent match to all of our data except for redshifts of 10 and higher, where it overpredicts halo numbers increasingly with redshift, reaching roughly 50 per cent for the  10¹⁰–10¹¹ M_⊙  haloes sampled at redshift 15. Our results confirm previous findings that the simulated halo mass function can be described solely by the variance of the mass distribution, and thus has no explicit redshift dependence. We provide an empirical fit to our data that corrects for the overprediction of extremely rare objects by the Sheth & Tormen mass function. This overprediction has implications for studies that use the number densities of similarly rare objects as cosmological probes. For example, the number density of high-redshift  ( z ≃ 6) QSOs  , which are thought to be hosted by haloes at 5σ peaks in the fluctuation field, are likely to be overpredicted by at least a factor of 50 per cent. We test the sensitivity of our results to force accuracy, starting redshift and halo-finding algorithm.     

Cloning of the major 3-MC inducible phase I and phase II detoxification enzymes of plaice liver

cDNA's coding for cytochrome P4501A1 (CYP1A1), phenol UDP-glucuronosyltransferase (UDPGT) and glutathione S-transferase (GST-A) were cloned and sequenced from an expression library prepared from the liver of a 3-methylcholanthrene (3-MC) induced plaice. Plaice CYP1A1 and Phenol UDPGT display a high degree of structural conservation with homologous mammalian isoforms and their mRNAs were shown to be highly induced in liver after 3-MC treatment of fish. Expression of plaice GST-A, which displays closer homology to GSTs from plants and invertebrates than those of mammals, is repressed after 3-MC treatment.     

Polar bear management,sport hunting and Inuit subsistence at Clyde River,Nunavut

This paper begins by reviewing the structure and evolution of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) management in Canada and in the Territory of Nunavut since the inception of the Agreement on the Conservation of Polar Bears in the 1970s. This is followed by the paper's main focus, the examination of the socio-economic and cultural importance of polar bears for Inuit and the success of the Agreement in supporting contemporary Inuit subsistence relations in Nunavut.     

The use of invariant manifolds for transfers between unstable periodic orbits of different energies

Techniques from dynamical systems theory have been applied to the construction of transfers between unstable periodic orbits that have different energies. Invariant manifolds, trajectories that asymptotically depart or approach unstable periodic orbits, are used to connect the initial and final orbits. The transfer asymptotically departs the initial orbit on a trajectory contained within the initial orbit’s unstable manifold and later asymptotically approaches the final orbit on a trajectory contained within the stable manifold of the final orbit. The manifold trajectories are connected by the execution of impulsive maneuvers. Two-body parameters dictate the selection of the individual manifold trajectories used to construct efficient transfers. A bounding sphere centered on the secondary, with a radius less than the sphere of influence of the secondary, is used to study the manifold trajectories. A two-body parameter, κ, is computed within the bounding sphere, where the gravitational effects of the secondary dominate. The parameter κ is defined as the sum of two quantities: the difference in the normalized angular momentum vectors and eccentricity vectors between a point on the unstable manifold and a point on the stable manifold. It is numerically demonstrated that as the κ parameter decreases, the total cost to complete the transfer decreases. Preliminary results indicate that this method of constructing transfers produces a significant cost savings over methods that do not employ the use of invariant manifolds.