北半球夏季中高纬度大气阻塞对北极海冰变化的影响

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析逐日500 h Pa高度场资料,对北半球夏季中高纬度大气阻塞特征进行统计分析,发现大气阻塞活动频率高的地区主要集中在白令海峡区域、鄂霍次克海区域、欧亚大陆区域及格陵兰区域。而通过NSIDC提供的卫星观测资料发现近30年夏季海冰容易减少的区域正好对应阻塞活动北部的高纬度地区。分别通过对以上4个区域有阻塞发生相对没有阻塞发生时的500 h Pa位势高度场、地面温度场、850 h Pa经向瞬变热通量输送和平流输送等异常变化场进行对比分析,结果发现夏季中高纬度阻塞频率的增加对海冰的减少有显著影响,主要体现在阻塞的发生发展可通过增加高纬度地面温度、对极地的热量输送和暖平流输送来加快海冰的融化。这种阻塞引起的热力作用在鄂霍次克海和欧亚大陆区域效果更为显著。     

湘西自治州汛期降水的气候特征

从季度降水预报业务的需要出发，根据湘西自治州８个测站的降水资料，分析了汛期（４－９）降水的气候特征和变化趋势，以期为预报汛期雨量提供参考。     

Impacts of bias correction of lateral boundary conditions on regional climate projections in West Africa

Biases existing in the lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) influence climate simulations in regional climate models (RCMs). Correcting the biases in global climate model (GCM)-produced LBCs before running RCMs was proposed in previous studies as a possible way to reduce the GCM-related model dependence of future climate projections using RCMs. In this study the ICTP Regional Climate Model Version 4 (RegCM4) is used to investigate the impact of LBC bias correction on projected future changes of regional climate in West Africa. To accomplish this, two types of present versus future simulations are conducted using RegCM4: a control type where both the present and future LBCs are derived directly from the GCM output (as is done in most regional climate downscaling studies); an experiment type where the present-day LBCs are from reanalysis data and future LBCs are derived by combining the reanalysis data and the GCM-projected LBC changes. For each type of simulations, three different sets of LBCs are experimented on: 6-hourly synoptic forcing directly from the reanalysis or GCM, 6-hourly data interpolated from monthly climatology (without diurnal cycle), and 6-hourly data interpolated from the month-specific climatology of diurnal cycles. It is found that the simulations using different LBCs produce similar present-day summer rainfall patterns, but the predicted future changes differ significantly depending on how the LBC bias correction is treated. Specifically, both the bias correction applied at the synoptic scale and the bias correction applied to the monthly interpolated LBCs without diurnal cycle produce a spurious drying signal caused by physical inconsistency in the corrected future LBCs. Interpolated monthly LBCs with diurnal cycle alleviate the problem to a large extent. These results suggest that using bias-corrected LBCs to drive regional climate models may not guarantee reliable future projections although reasonable present climate can be simulated. Physical inconsistencies may be contained in the bias-corrected LBCs, increasing the uncertainties of RCM-produced future projections.     

Agricultural drought in a future climate: results from 15 global climate models participating in the IPCC 4th assessment

This study examines the impact of greenhouse gas warming on soil moisture based on predictions of 15 global climate models by comparing the after-stabilization climate in the SRESA1b experiment with the pre-industrial control climate. The models are consistent in predicting summer dryness and winter wetness in only part of the northern middle and high latitudes. Slightly over half of the models predict year-round wetness in central Eurasia and/or year-round dryness in Siberia and mid-latitude Northeast Asia. One explanation is offered that relates such lack of seasonality to the carryover effect of soil moisture storage from season to season. In the tropics and subtropics, a decrease of soil moisture is the dominant response. The models are especially consistent in predicting drier soil over the southwest North America, Central America, the Mediterranean, Australia, and the South Africa in all seasons, and over much of the Amazon and West Africa in the June–July–August (JJA) season and the Asian monsoon region in the December–January–February (DJF) season. Since the only major areas of future wetness predicted with a high level of model consistency are part of the northern middle and high latitudes during the non-growing season, it is suggested that greenhouse gas warming will cause a worldwide agricultural drought. Over regions where there is considerable consistency among the analyzed models in predicting the sign of soil moisture changes, there is a wide range of magnitudes of the soil moisture response, indicating a high degree of model dependency in terrestrial hydrological sensitivity. A major part of the inter-model differences in the sensitivity of soil moisture response are attributable to differences in land surface parameterization.     

Influence of the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation on Extreme Temperature Events in the Northern Hemisphere

The impact of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) on extreme hot and cool events was investigated, by analyzing the observed and reanalysis data for the period from 1983 to 2012. It is found that the frequency of the extreme events in middle and high latitudes is significantly modulated by the BSISO convection in the tropics, with a 3–9-day lag. During phases 1 and 2 when the BSISO positive rainfall anomaly is primarily located over a northwest–southeast oriented belt extending from India to Maritime Continent and a negative rainfall anomaly appears in western North Pacific, the frequency of extreme hot events is 40% more than the frequency of non-extreme hot events. Most noticeable increase appears in midlatitude North Pacific (north of 40°N) and higher-latitude polar region.Two physical mechanisms are primarily responsible for the change of the extreme frequency. First, an upper-tropospheric Rossby wave train (due to the wave energy propagation) is generated in response to a negative heating anomaly over tropical western North Pacific in phases 1 and 2. This wave train consists of a strong high pressure anomaly center northeast of Japan, a weak low pressure anomaly center over Alaska, and a strong high pressure anomaly center over the western coast of United States. Easterly anomalies to the south of the two strong midlatitude high pressure centers weaken the climatological subtropical jet along 40°N, which is accompanied by anomalous subsidence and warming in North Pacific north of 40°N. Second, an enhanced monsoonal heating over South Asia and East Asia sets up a transverse monsoonal overturning circulation, with large-scale ascending (descending) anomalies over tropical Indian (Pacific) Ocean. Both the processes favor more frequent extreme hot events in higher-latitude Northern Hemisphere. An anomalous atmospheric general circulation model is used to confirm the tropical heating effect.     

元素地球化学揭示的长江中游鄱阳湖地区中更新世以来粉尘堆积的物源特征及其环境意义

位于长江中游的鄱阳湖地区深受东亚季风影响,因其特殊的地理、地貌与水文、水系特征,自中更新世以来随着冬季风的加强,在大姑组、九江组砾石层之上风成堆积广泛发育。该区域中、上更新统表现为网纹红土、均质红土和下蜀黄土的独特沉积序列,厘清这三套独特沉积序列的物质来源对于我们认识东亚季风演化及其区域环境响应至关重要。本文选择了长江中游鄱阳湖地区10个典型剖面,基于<20μm颗粒组分的元素地球化学特征,研究了该地区中、上更新统粉尘堆积的特点,并将其与黄土高原西峰黄土和东秦岭黄土做了对比分析。研究认为,长江中游鄱阳湖地区这套独特的沉积序列,元素特征基本相似,具有贫Co、Pb,富Zr、Hf,低Eu/Eu^*(0.53~0.62)、LaN/YbN(4~8)、Ta/Zr(0~0.006)、Nb/Zr(0~0.09),高Y/Ho(28~30)、Zr/Hf(36~48)等特点,与黄土高原与东秦岭黄土有显著区别。基于Hf-Th-Co、Th-Sc-Zr/10和Th-Sc-La蜘蛛图投影分析,鄱阳湖地区第四纪粉尘物质的源岩接近于石英岩类,为被动大陆边缘构造背景下的产物,显著区别于黄土高原与东秦岭黄土(源岩接近于页岩,形成于大陆岛弧构造背景)。进一步分析认为,网纹红土、均质红土的母质均与区域下蜀黄土类似,推测它们均来自于其冬季风上风方向的长江或赣江的古河谷漫滩,这套独特的沉积序列是第四纪以来长江中游现代格局的水系贯通后,冬季风增强,吹蚀大江大河广阔的古河谷漫滩而形成的区域粉尘堆积的结果;是湿热的亚热带季风区对于中更新世以来在轨道尺度上冬夏季风均加强的背景下独特的区域响应。     

Fracture Characteristics and Heat Accumulation of Jixianian Carbonate Reservoirs in the Rongcheng Geothermal Field, Xiong’an New Area

Geothermal energy plays an important role in urban construction of the Xiong’an New Area. Geothermal reservoir fracture distribution of the Mesoproterozoic Jixianian Wumishan Formation (Fm.) carbonate reservoir in the Rongcheng geothermal field are evaluated based on FMI log from Wells D19 and D21. The results show carbonate reservoir fracture density of Well D19 is 15.2/100 m, greater than that of Well D21 with a value of 9.2/100 m. Reservoir porosity and permeability of Well D19 are better than that of Well D21, and the water saturation is bimodally distributed. The movable fluid volume ratio (BVM) of Well D19 is 2% to 8% with some zones exceeding 20%, while the value of Well D21 is less than 4%. Therefore, reservoir fractures in Well D19 are more conducive to fluid flow. Reservoir fractures have a similar occurrence to normal faults, indicating that the tensile stress field controlled the formation of such fractures. Developed reservoir fractures provide a good channel for groundwater convection. The circulation of regional groundwater and the heat exchange between water and rock and the multiple heat accumulation patterns form a stable and high potential heat reservoir in the Rongcheng geothermal field.     

ESR DATING OF FLUVIAL SEDIMENTS USING GE CENTER IN QUARTZ

Using the Ge centers of quartz sediments, the buried ages of fluvial sediments were determined by ESR technique. The ESR ages obtained from Ge centers are consistent with the TL ages, correspond with their horizons, accord with the geological background, and every ESR age is available. In this paper, determination of total dose of natural radiation (TD) and the reliability of ESR age using Ge center are also discussed.     

Tectonic Features of the M_S8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake and Its Aftershocks

The M8.0 Wenchuan earthquake occurred on the Longmenshan fault zone. Based on field investigation of the surface rupture and focal mechanism study of the aftershocks, we discuss the geological relationship of the main, secondary and triggered ruptures. The main rupture is about 200km long and can be divided into the south part and the north part. The south part consists of two parallel fault zones characterized by reverse faulting, with several parallel secondary ruptures on the hanging wall of the main fault, and the north part is a single main fault zone characterized by lateral strike-slip and reverse faulting. Compared to a 300km long aftershock distribution, the surface rupture only occupies 200km, and the remaining 100km on the northeast of the main rupture was triggered by aftershocks. Study on the ruptures of this earthquake will be useful for studying the earthquake risk evolution on the Longmenshan fault system.