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延伸期温度预报误差订正技术初探 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
应用滑动平均误差订正方法和历史偏差订正方法,对欧洲中期天气预报中心的数值模式延伸期2 m温度预报进行误差订正。研究发现,应用滑动平均误差订正方法进行11~15 d逐日温度预报订正时,25~30 d是最优的训练期长度。对2018年订正预报的检验分析显示,应用上述两种误差订正方法均可减小模式预报的系统偏差,有效修正模式温度预报较实况明显偏低的问题,并将预报准确率提高30%以上。在6—10月,订正后的温度预报平均绝对误差基本在2℃以内,具有一定的参考性,其业务化产品可支撑预报员的业务预报需求。在15 d内的延伸期预报时效上,两种订正方法对温度预报的订正效果差异并不明显。随着时效的延长,历史偏差订正方法的优势逐渐显现。 相似文献
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低磁纬度地区受斜磁化的影响,用常规方法很难准确确定磁性体的平面分布特征.为了研究位于低磁纬度地区普图马约盆地的磁性体分布特征,本文根据场的散度原理,假定磁△T异常为具有一定方向的矢量场,其方向与磁化方向一致,导出了磁△T异常视散度的计算方法;根据磁位与引力位的关系,在频率域中通过磁△T异常求取了磁源重力异常,并尝试利用拉普拉斯方程计算磁源重力异常垂向二阶导数.本文设计理论模型讨论了磁△T异常视散度、磁源重力异常垂向二阶导数的特征与磁性体平面分布特征的关系,证明了上述方法的有效性.进而利用上述方法推测了普图马约盆地磁性体的平面分布特征,结果表明:应用磁视散度及磁源重力异常确定的普图马约盆地磁性体分布与实际地质特征吻合较好,取得的成果对普图马约盆地相关地质研究及对低磁纬度地区的磁性体的确定有一定的参考意义. 相似文献
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用溶胶-凝胶法制备了LiMxMn2-xo4(M=Cr、Al;x≤0.2)尖晶石相锂离子电池阴极材料.SEM表面观测显示材料的晶形好,粒度均匀,粒径小于0.5微米.电化学测试表明,低水平量(0.02≤x≤0.05)的Cr、Al掺杂材料初始容量稍有降低,但却较大地改善了循环性能.在LiMxMn 2-xO4中,掺Al降低了Li+、Mn3+占位的无序度;Cr3+和Al3+取代了其中的部分Mn3+,占据八面体位(16d),抑制了Jahn-Teller效应,增强了尖晶石骨架的稳定性,提高了其电化学性能.在3.0~4.3V的充放电过程中,材料中的Cr、Al都保持+3价不变,不发生氧化还原. 相似文献
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The annual subduction rate in the South Indian Ocean was calculated by analyzing Simple Ocean Data Assimilation(SODA) outputs in the period of 1950–2008. The subduction rate census for potential density classes showed a peak corresponding to Indian Ocean subtropical mode water(IOSTMW) in the southwestern part of the South Indian Ocean subtropical gyre. The deeper mixed layer depth, the sharper mixed-layer fronts and the associated relatively faster circulation in the present climatology resulted in a larger lateral induction, which primarily dominants the IOSTMW subduction rate, while with only minor contribution from vertical pumping.Without loss of generality, through careful analysis of the water characteristics in the layer of minimum vertical temperature gradient(LMVTG), the authors suggest that the IOSTMW was identified as a thermostad, with a lateral minimum of low potential vorticity(PV, less than 200×10~(–12) m~(–1)·s~(–1)) and a low d T?dz(less than 1.5°C/(100m)). The IOSTMW within the South Indian Ocean subtropical gyre distributed in the region approximately from25° to 50° E and from 30° to 39°S. Additionally, the average characteristics(temperature, salinity, potential density)of the mode water were estimated about(16.38 ± 0.29)°C,(35.46 ± 0.04),(26.02 ± 0.04) σ_θ over the past 60 years. 相似文献
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The structure of the annual-mean shallow meridional overturning circulation(SMOC) in the South China Sea(SCS) and the related water movement are investigated,using simple ocean data assimilation(SODA) outputs.The distinct clockwise SMOC is present above 400 m in the SCS on the climatologically annual-mean scale,which consists of downwelling in the northern SCS,a southward subsurface branch supplying upwelling at around 10°N and a northward surface flow,with a strength of about 1×10~6 m~3/s.The formation mechanisms of its branches are studied separately.The zonal component of the annual-mean wind stress is predominantly westward and causes northward Ekman transport above 50 m.The annual-mean Ekman transport across 18°N is about 1.2×10~6 m~3/s.An annual-mean subduction rate is calculated by estimating the net volume flux entering the thermocline from the mixed layer in a Lagrangian framework.An annual subduction rate of about 0.66×10~6m~3/s is obtained between 17° and 20°N,of which 87% is due to vertical pumping and 13% is due to lateral induction.The subduction rate implies that the subdution contributes significantly to the downwelling branch.The pathways of traced parcels released at the base of the February mixed layer show that after subduction water moves southward to as far as 11°N within the western boundary current before returning northward.The velocity field at the base of mixed layer and a meridional velocity section in winter also confirm that the southward flow in the subsurface layer is mainly by strong western boundary currents.Significant upwelling mainly occurs off the Vietnam coast in the southern SCS.An upper bound for the annual-mean net upwelling rate between 10° and 15°N is 0.7×10~6m~3/s,of which a large portion is contributed by summer upwelling,with both the alongshore component of the southwest wind and its offshore increase causing great upwelling. 相似文献
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抚宁县拥有海岸线12.5公里,主要用海类型是旅游业和养殖业;辖区12海里内海域面积为29.5万亩,规划养殖用海面积16.53万亩,是“全国海域使用管理示范县”。近年来,该县不断探索,勇于创新,加强海域使用管理工作,围绕实现海域管理科学化、规范化、法制化目标,在全省率先推行了浅海养殖用海使用证制度、率先开展了浅海养殖用海海域使用权公开拍卖制度、率先建立了县级海监大队、率先建立县级海洋测绘队、率先编制了《海洋资源利用总体规划》,从根本上扭转了实施《海域法》前的“无序、无度、无偿”现象, 相似文献