Local and remote causes of the southern Australian autumn-winter rainfall decline, 1958–2007

The 1958–2007 decline in March–August rainfall over southern Australia (south of 30°S) is very closely related to an increase in surface atmospheric pressure over Australia. Sea surface temperatures around northern Australia are strongly correlated with southern Australian rainfall but the recent warming of the ocean should have led to increased rainfall rather than the observed rainfall decline. The relationships between the rainfall and indices of several modes of the atmosphere/ocean system are investigated to determine a cause of the rainfall decline. Indices of the modes that only use data remote from the Australian region are used to avoid the possibility that a relationship between the mode and Australian rainfall is simply reflecting the behaviour of “local” portions of the index. Thus a climate mode index that incorporates Australian pressure would, of course, be related to southern Australian rainfall, even if the remote parts of the mode were unrelated to Australian rainfall. Unless the remote contributions to the mode index were also related to Australian rainfall it seems physically unrealistic to consider that the mode, per se, was affecting Australian rainfall (rather than simply reflecting the influence of the local pressure changes). The rainfall decline does not appear to be explainable by a change in the behaviour of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (remote indices of this phenomenon do not exhibit a trend over this period) or the Indian Ocean Dipole (which is not strongly correlated with Australian rainfall on detrended data). The strong 1958–2007 trend in the southern annular mode (SAM) appears able to explain much of the rainfall decline since its year-to-year variations are correlated with year-to-year variations in southern Australian rainfall, and the sense of the correlation and the SAM trend would lead to a decline in rainfall (and an increase in pressure over Australia). The observed trend in SAM can reproduce over 70% of the observed rainfall trend. All these conclusions also apply to the rainfall declines in the southeast and southwest sub-regions.     

A note on the significance of the assemblage calcite-quartz-plagioclase-paragonite-graphite

The biotite zone assemblage: calcite-quartz-plagioclase (An₂₅)-phengite-paragonite-chlorite-graphite, is developed at the contact between a carbonate and a pelite from British Columbia. Thermochemical data for the equilibrium paragonite+calcite+2 quartz=albite+ anorthite+CO₂+H₂O yields: $$\log f{\text{H}}_{\text{2}} {\text{O}} + \log f{\text{CO}}_{\text{2}} = 5.76 + 0.117 \times 10^{ - 3} (P - 1)$$ for a temperature of 700°K and a plagioclase composition of An₂₅. By combining this equation with equations describing equilibria between graphite and gas species in the system C-H-O, the following partial pressures: \(P{\text{H}}_2 {\text{O}} = 2572{\text{b, }}P{\text{CO}}_2 = 3162{\text{b, }}P{\text{H}}_2 = 2.5{\text{b, }}P{\text{CH}}_4 = 52.5{\text{b, }}P{\text{CO}} = 11.0{\text{b}}\) are obtained for \(f{\text{O}}_2 = 10^{ - 26}\) . If total pressure equals fluid pressure, then the total pressure during metamorphism was approximately 6 kb. The total fluid pressure calculated is extremely sensitive to the value of \(f{\text{O}}_2\) chosen.     

Mary Anning,Alfred Nicholson Leeds and Steve Etches. Comparing the three most important UK ‘amateur’ fossil collectors and their collections

Mary Anning, Alfred Nicholson Leeds and Steve Etches form part of a long line of individuals who furnished a substantial addition to our understanding of marine and terrestrial ecosystems through collecting significant numbers of superb fossils. For all three collectors, fossils became a factor that dominated their lives, and their fossil collecting led to the discovery of numerous taxa new to science. Extensive collecting was made possible by the fortunate circumstances of living ‘in the right place at the right time’, close to fine-grained UK Jurassic deposits (Lagerstätten) with well-preserved large Jurassic marine reptiles. All three were highly-motivated and developed a considerable skill sets for discovering, collecting, preparing, conserving and displaying fossils. They developed personal and professional interactions with family and friends, and university and museum professionals, although their collecting resulted in variable recognition of their work. Each collector can be considered a complex mix of amateur and professional: Mary Anning, a professional fossil collector and amateur palaeontologist; Alfred Leeds transitioned from amateur to professional fossil collector, but remained an amateur palaeontologist; and Steve Etches has remained an amateur fossil collector and palaeontologist. However, all three exhibited an entirely professional outlook to collecting, and should be considered professionals of the highest degree. The impact of Mary Anning, Alfred Nicholson Leeds and Steve Etches has been critical for the development of Palaeontology as a science, and without whom palaeontology, with all its associated benefits to a wide scientific and non-scientific audience, would not be as rich as we currently know it.     

Electron beam analytical instruments and the determination of modes,spatial variations of minerals and textural features of rocks in polished section

Point counts based on X-ray intensities collected with an automated electron beam analytical instrument can be used to estimate the accurate modes required by modern physical-chemical modelling of rock-forming processes. In addition, the spatial distributions of mineral species and mineral compositions can be extracted from the coordinates of the point counting grid. Statistical tests of whether the mineral and porosity distributions are uniform can be performed by comparing the results from subareas of the polished section. The separate and composite contributions of the mineral phases to the texture and structure of the rock can be visually represented with mineral distribution maps. Qualitative differences in grain size can be recognized because the nonzero, finite electron beam diameter can detect grain boundaries. Spots on the minerals are identified by comparing the ranking of X-ray intensities with the ranking of intensities on a set of standards. For example, this method identified more than 88% of the spots on the surface of a polished section of an alkali olivine basalt. A small additional number of spots, approximately 1%, were identified because their spectra were dominated by the X-ray intensities of two characteristic elements. This method was particularly efficient in identifying phases with a small grain size and simple chemistry, e.g. apatite. The modal amounts of an alkali olivine basalt obtained with a microprobe are within approximately one standard deviation of the results obtained by point counting the same areas of the polished section under reflected and transmitted light if the minerals are major constituents and occur only in the groundmass. Accessory and phenocryst phases agree to within approximately three standard deviations.     

Comparison of ladderane phospholipid and core lipids as indicators for anaerobic ammonium oxidation (anammox) in marine sediments

We investigated anaerobic ammonium oxidation (anammox) in continental shelf and slope sediments of the Irish and Celtic Seas by using anammox specific ladderane biomarker lipids. We used the presence of an intact ladderane phospholipid as a direct indicator for living anammox bacteria, and compared it with the abundance of ladderane core lipids derived from both living and dead bacterial biomass. All investigated sediments contained ladderane core lipids as well as the intact ladderane phospholipid, in agreement with ¹⁵N-labeling experiments, which revealed anammox activity at all sites. Ladderane core lipid and intact ladderane phospholipid concentrations were significantly correlated (R² = 0.957 and 0.464, respectively) with anammox activity over the transect of the continental shelf and slope sediments. In the Irish Sea (50-100 m water depth) highest abundances of the intact ladderane phospholipid were found in the upper 2 cm of the sediment, indicating a zone of active anammox. A sharp decline further down-core suggested a strong decrease in anammox biomass and rapid degradation of the intact lipids. In comparison, ladderane core lipids were 1-2 orders of magnitude higher in concentration than the intact ladderane phospholipid and accumulated as dead cell remnants with depth. In the slope sediments of the Celtic Sea both ladderane core lipids and the intact ladderane phospholipid were found in sediments at water depths ranging from 500 to 2000 m. Here, anammox seemed to be active at greater depths of the sediment (>2 cm). Mean abundances of both intact and core ladderane lipids in whole sediment cores increased downslope, indicating an increasing importance of anammox in deeper slope sediments.     

Long-term climate monitoring and extreme events

Problems with long-term monitoring of various extreme meteorological events (including tropical and extratropical cyclones, extreme winds, temperatures and precipitation, and mesoscale events) are examined. For many types of extreme events, the maintenance of long-term homogeneity of observations is more difficult than is the case for means of variables. In some cases, however, a strategy of using more than a single variable to define an event, along with the careful elimination of biases in the data, can provide quantitative information about trends. Special care needs to be taken with extreme events deduced from meteorological analyses, because changes in analysis and observation systems are certain to have affected extremes. Also, compositing of observations from more than one station, using differences in means (of temperature for instance) to produce a single long-term site, may not remove the biases in the extremes. These problems, along with ambiguities in defining extreme events, and difficulties in combining different analyses from different sites, complicate (and perhaps invalidate) attempts to determine whether extreme weather is becoming more frequent. The best that is likely to be achieved, even with increased emphasis on attaining the high-level of homogeneity necessary in the observations, is to monitor long-term variations in certain important extreme events, in select locations with high-quality data. Regional indices of important extreme events, selected on the basis of their damage potential and capable of adequate monitoring, may be established. If, in the future, we are to answer the question “Are extreme weather events becoming more frequent?”, we must establish and protect high-quality stations capable of monitoring the most important extreme events (perhaps with such regional indices), and ensure that changes affecting the recording of extreme events (e.g., changes in exposure) are meticulously documented.     

On the definition of the flux of sensible heat

The definition of the sensible heat flux is examined in the light of a paper published by Brook (1978). We show that the convergence of the flux defined in this paper and that of the standard definition are related to different quantities and that care must be taken to ensure that compatible definitions are used.     

Shifts in the synoptic systems influencing southwest Western Australia

A self-organising map is used to classify the winter circulation affecting southwest Western Australia (SWWA) into 20 different synoptic types. The changes in the frequency of these types and their links to observed rainfall are analysed to further understand the significant, prolonged, rainfall drop observed in this region since 1975. The temporal variability of the different synoptic types link well with the observed rainfall changes. The frequency of the troughs associated with wet conditions across SWWA has declined markedly since 1975 while the frequency of the synoptic types with high pressure over the continent, associated with dry conditions, has increased. Combining the frequency of the synoptic systems with the amount of observed rainfall allows a quantitative analysis of the rainfall decline. The decreased frequency of the troughs associated with very wet conditions accounts for half of the decline. Reductions in the amount of rainfall precipitating from each system also contribute to the decline. Large-scale circulation changes, including increases in the mean sea-level pressure and a decrease in the general baroclinicity of the region have been associated with the rainfall decline. These changes are suggested to be linked to increasing levels of greenhouse gases. Due to the strong link between the number of trough types and the rainfall over SWWA, the shifts in the frequency of these synoptic types could be used as a tool to assess simulated rainfall changes, particularly into the future.     

Absolute spectrophotomery of comets 1973XII and 1975IX: II. Profiles of the Swan bands

Absolute spectrophotometric measurements of the Swan bands of two comets have been compared with computed synthetic spectra using modern Franck-Condon and Hönl-London factors, and varying rotational, vibrational, and electronic excitation temperatures. Rotational and vibrational temperatures were obtained for the comets. Although the electronic excitation temperature and the molecular column density cannot be separated, a relationship is found between these two quantities. A review is made of recent determinations of column densities for CN in comets.     

A comparison of the main methods for estimating probabilities of extreme still water levels

Sea-level return periods are estimated at 18 sites around the English Channel using: (i) the annual maxima method; (ii) the r-largest method; (iii) the joint probability method; and (iv) the revised joint probability method. Tests are undertaken to determine how sensitive these four methods are to three factors which may significantly influence the results; (a) the treatment of the long-term trends in extreme sea level; (b) the relative magnitudes of the tidal and non-tidal components of sea level; and (c) the frequency, length and completeness of the available data. Results show that unless sea-level records with lengths of at least 50 years are used, the way in which the long-term trends is handled in the different methods can lead to significant differences in the estimated return levels. The direct methods (i.e. methods i and ii) underestimate the long (> 20 years) period return levels when the astronomical tidal variations of sea level (relative to a mean of zero) are about twice that of the non-tidal variations. The performance of each of the four methods is assessed using prediction errors (the difference between the return periods of the observed maximum level at each site and the corresponding data range). Finally, return periods, estimated using the four methods, are compared with estimates from the spatial revised joint probability method along the UK south coast and are found to be significantly larger at most sites along this coast, due to the comparatively short records originally used to calibrate the model in this area. The revised joint probability method is found to have the lowest prediction errors at most sites analysed and this method is recommended for application wherever possible. However, no method can compensate for poor data.