A 3-D model for the Antarctic ice sheet: a sensitivity study on the glacial-interglacial contrast

On the longer climatic time scales, changes in the elevation and extent of the Antarctic ice sheet have an important role in modulating global atmospheric and oceanographic processes, and contribute significantly to world-wide sea levels. In this paper, a 3-D time-dependent thermomechanical model for the entire ice sheet is presented, that is subsequently used to examine the effects of glacial-interglacial shifts in environmental boundary conditions on its geometry. The model takes into account a coupled ice shelf, grounding-line dynamics, basal sliding and isostatic bed adjustment and considers the fully coupled velocity and temperature fields. Ice flow is calculated on a fine mesh (40 km horizontal grid size and 10 layers in the vertical) for grounded and floating ice and a stress transition zone in between at the grounding line, where all stress components contribute in the effective stress in the flow law. There is free interaction between ice sheet and ice shelf, so that the entire geometry is internally generated. A simulation of the present ice sheet reveals that the model is able to yield realistic results. A series of sensitivity experiments are then performed, in which lower temperatures, reduced accumulation rates and lower global sea level stands are imposed, either singly or in combination. By comparing results of pairs of experiments, the effects of each of these environmental changes can be determined. In agreement with glacial-geological evidence, we found that the most pronounced changes show up in the West Antarctic ice sheet configuration. They appear to be essentially controlled by variations in eustatic sea level, whereas typical glacial-interglacial changes in temperature and ice deposition rates tend to balance one another. These findings support the hypothesis that the Antarctic ice sheet basically follows glacial episodes in the northern hemisphere by means of sea-level teleconnections. Grounding occurs more readily in the Weddell sea than in the Ross sea and long time scales appear to be involved: it may take up to 30–40000 years for these continental shelf areas to become completely grounded after an initial stepwise perturbation in boundary conditions. According to these reconstructions, a steady state Antarctic ice sheet may contribute some 16 m to global sea level lowering at maximum glaciation.     

Isotopic study of the Manaslu granite (Himalaya,Nepal): inferences on the age and source of Himalayan leucogranites

A detailed isotopic study of the Manaslu leucogranite was carried out. A U-Pb age of 25 Ma and a whole rock Rb-Sr age isochron of 18 Ma were obtained, suggesting that the magmatic activity lasted at least 7 Ma. Initial Sr isotopic ratios are very high (0.740 to 0.760) and initial Nd isotopic ratios are low ( _Nd ⁱⁿ : –13 to –16), and they show the existence of large isotopic variations even at the metre scale. These are not the result of perturbations by fluids but rather they reflect the initial isotopic heterogeneity of the source material which has not been obliterated by magmatic processes (e.g. fusion, mixing by convection). These results also support the crustal origin of this leucogranite. The Tibetan slab paragneisses, whose Sr and Nd isotopic ratios are very similar to those of the granite at an age of 20 Ma, are the most probable parental material. Nd model ages for both the leucogranite and the gneisses are in the range 1.5–2 Ga. A model of formation of the Manaslu granite by coalescence of different batches of magma is in agreement with the present data.     

Inversion of interference hydraulic pumping tests in both homogeneous and fractal dual media

This work proposes a complete method for automatic inversion of data from hydraulic interference pumping tests based on both homogeneous and fractal dual-medium approaches. The aim is to seek a new alternative concept able to interpret field data, identify macroscopic hydraulic parameters and therefore enhance the understanding of flow in porous fractured reservoirs. Because of its much contrasted sensitivities to parameters, the dual-medium approach yields an ill-posed inverse problem that requires a specific optimization procedure including the calculation of analytical sensitivities and their possible re-scaling. Once these constraints are fulfilled, the inversion proves accurate, provides unambiguous and reliable results. In the fractal context inverting several drawdown curves from different locations at the same time reveals more accurate. Finally, hydraulic parameters drawn from inversion should be taken into account to improve in various situations the conditioning of up-scaled flow in fractured rocks.     

Fine sediment transport and accumulations at the mouth of the Seine estuary (France)

A comprehensive study of fine sediment transport in the macrotidal Seine estuary has been conducted, including observations of suspended particulate matter (SPM), surficial sediment, and bathymetric data, as well as use of a three dimensional mathematical model. Tide, river regime, wind, and wave forcings are accounted. The simulated turbidity maximum (TM) is described in terms of concentration and location according to tidal amplitude and the discharge of the Seine River. The TM is mainly generated by tidal pumping, but can be concentrated or stretched by the salinity front. The computed deposition patterns depend on the TM location and are seasonally dependent. The agreement with observations is reasonable, although resuspension by waves may be overestimated. Although wave resuspension is likely to increase the TM mass, it generally occurs simultaneously with westerly winds that induce a transverse circulation at the mouth of the estuary and then disperse the suspended material. The resulting effect is an output of material related to wind and wave events, more than to high river discharge. The mass of the computed TM remains stable over 6 months and independent of the river regime, depending mainly on the spring tide amplitude. Computed fluxes at different cross-sections of the lower estuary show the shift to the TM according to the river flow and point out the rapidity of the TM adjustment to any change of river discharge. The time for renewing the TM by riverine particles has been estimated to be one year.     

La prévision du climat : de l'échelle saisonnière à l'échelle décennale

The atmosphere and the ocean are subject to many dynamical instabilities, which limit the time during which their behaviour can be deterministically forecasted. At longer timescales, the atmosphere can be predicted at best using statistical methods, as a response to external forcing linked to sea- and land-surface anomalies. Climate being defined as the mean of atmospheric states, it appears that it can be predicted up to a few months in advance, which is the characteristic time of the so-called slow components of the climate system. Forecasting can sometimes be extended to longer time ranges, especially when the coupled ocean–atmosphere system exhibits internal variability modes, with characteristic times of a few years. Seasonal climate forecasting is most often based upon Monte-Carlo simulations, where the various realisations correspond to slightly different initial conditions. The present sate-of-the-art in Europe (ECMWF) and/or in the USA (IRI) allows to forecast such major phenomena, as El Niño, up to six months in advance. Finally, some parameters may exhibit predictability at still longer time-ranges (inter-annual to decadal), but only for certain regions. The example of electricity production is used to underline the potentially large economical benefit of seasonal climate forecasting. To cite this article: J.-C. André et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 1115–1127.

Résumé

L'atmosphère et l'océan sont le siège d'instabilités dynamiques, qui limitent la durée pendant laquelle il est possible d'en prévoir l'évolution de façon déterministe. Au-delà, l'atmosphère n'est plus prévisible, au mieux, que de façon statistique, en fonction du forçage externe qu'exerce(nt) sur elle l'océan et/ou la surface des continents. Le climat (au sens d'une moyenne des états atmosphériques) se révèle ainsi prévisible jusqu'à des échéances temporelles de quelques mois, échelle de temps caractéristique des composantes dites « lentes » du système climatique. La prévision peut s'étendre à des échéances parfois plus longues, dans le cas où le système couplé océan–atmosphère posséderait des modes de variabilité temporelle de périodes caractéristiques de quelques années. La prévision climatique saisonnière est très souvent construite à partir de simulations de type Monte-Carlo, avec des ensembles de réalisations utilisant des conditions initiales légèrement différentes. Dans l'état actuel de ces prévisions, qu'elles soient réalisées en Europe (CEPMMT) ou aux États-Unis (IRI), il est possible de prévoir environ six mois à l'avance un certain nombre de phénomènes climatiques, en particulier ceux liés aux épisodes dits « El Niño », pour lesquels l'amplitude des variations est suffisamment importante. Il existe, par ailleurs, une prévisibilité à encore plus longue échéance (inter-annuelle à décennale), mais seulement pour certains paramètres et certaines régions. L'exemple de la production d'électricité montre l'importance économique potentielle très grande de la prévision climatique saisonnière. Pour citer cet article : J.-C. André et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 1115–1127.     

New method for in situ characterization of loose material for landslide mapping purpose

The assessment of grain size distribution and plasticity of loose geological material, during in situ geological investigations, is not obvious. Visual appreciation allows an approximative quantification of the coarse granulometric fractions, but not of the fine ones. Field soils determination methods suggested until now, are visual and tactile tests leading to a very rough estimate, which is only qualitative and not very reproducible. The new proposed field test (GEOLEP method) allows a quick quantification of the fine fraction of loose material. It allows the determination of the sand fraction (fine and medium grained sands) as well as the methylene blue value of the samples. The necessary equipment to perform this test is light and compact and the time needed to analyze one sample is approximately 15 min. Thus it is also possible to carry out numerous measurements in one day. The calibrations were carried out on a selection of 13 natural samples, chosen for their representativeness of the typical alpine quaternary deposits. The results obtained with GEOLEP method are relevant compared with standardized laboratory tests; the obtained correlation indexes are of 73% for the comparison with laboratory stain test results and of 89% with a laboratory method using a similar procedure than the field test. The correlation we performed with Atterberg's limits tests shows that a rough approximation of plasticity index can also be obtained (R² = 75%). This method thus brings a new tool which should allow taking into account the lithological factor (by some quantitative and representative variables) in a reliable way for the evaluation of landslide hazards.     

Peierls dislocation modelling in perovskite (CaTiO<Subscript>3</Subscript>): comparison with tausonite (SrTiO<Subscript>3</Subscript>) and MgSiO<Subscript>3</Subscript> perovskite

We present here a numerical modelling study of dislocations in perovskite CaTiO₃. The dislocation core structures and properties are calculated through the Peierls–Nabarro model using the generalized stacking fault (GSF) results as a starting model. The GSF are determined from first-principles calculations using the VASP code. The dislocation properties such as collinear, planar core spreading and Peierls stresses are determined for the following slip systems: [100](010), [100](001), [010](100), [010](001), [001](100), [001](010), and All dislocations exhibit lattice friction, but glide appears to be easier for [100](010) and [010](100). [001](010) and [001](100) exhibit collinear dissociation. Comparing Peierls stresses among tausonite (SrTiO₃), perovskite (CaTiO₃) and MgSiO₃ perovskite demonstrates the strong influence of orthorhombic distortions on lattice friction. However, and despite some quantitative differences, CaTiO₃ appears to be a satisfactory analogue material for MgSiO₃ perovskite as far as dislocation glide is concerned.     

Using Multiple-Point Geostatistics for Tracer Test Modeling in a Clay-Drape Environment with Spatially Variable Conductivity and Sorption Coefficient

This study investigates the effect of fine-scale clay drapes on tracer transport. A tracer test was performed in a sandbar deposit consisting of cross-bedded sandy units intercalated with many fine-scale clay drapes. The heterogeneous spatial distribution of the clay drapes causes a spatially variable hydraulic conductivity and sorption coefficient. A fluorescent tracer (sodium naphthionate) was injected in two injection wells and ground water was sampled and analyzed from five pumping wells. To determine (1) whether the fine-scale clay drapes have a significant effect on the measured concentrations and (2) whether application of multiple-point geostatistics can improve interpretation of tracer tests in media with complex geological heterogeneity, this tracer test is analyzed with a local three-dimensional ground-water flow and transport model in which fine-scale sedimentary heterogeneity is modeled using multiple-point geostatistics. To reduce memory needs and calculation time for the multiple-point geostatistical simulation step, this study uses the technique of direct multiple-point geostatistical simulation of edge properties. Instead of simulating pixel values, model cell edge properties indicating the presence of irregularly shaped surfaces are simulated using multiple-point geostatistical simulations. Results of a sensitivity analysis show under which conditions clay drapes have a significant effect on the concentration distribution. Calibration of the model against measured concentrations from the tracer tests reduces the uncertainty on the clay-drape parameters. The calibrated model shows which features of the breakthrough curves can be attributed to the geological heterogeneity of the aquifer and which features are caused by other processes.