萨拉乌苏河流域萨拉乌苏组砂丘砂沉积特征

The Salawusu Formation of Milanggouwan section in Salawusu River Valley includes 7 layers of paleo-mobile dune sands, and 4 layers of paleo-fixed and semi-fixed dune sands. Their structures have been observed and their grain size, surface textural features and several main chemical elements have been analyzed. The results showed that： 1） Some of the aeolian structural characteristics of these dune sands are similar to that of the recent dune sands. 2） They are also similar to the recent dune sands in grain size components, and parameters of Mz,σ, Sk and Kg, as well as in several main chemical components. 3） The scattergrams of Mz-σ and SiO2-Al2O3＋TOFE and the probability curves of grain size showed that these paleo-dune sands are different from paleosols and fluvio-lacustrine facies, but are consistency with recent dune sands. 4） Quartz sands have well roundness and surface textural features such as dish-shaped pits, crescent-shaped pits, pockmarked pits, upturned cleavage plates, siliceous precipitates and siliceous crevasses, indicating that they had been carried for a long time by the wind. As the 11 layers of paleo-dune sands possess the aeolian characteristics in structure, grain size, surface textural features and chemical elements, the origin of their formation should be attributed to eolation.     

农业生态系统可持续性评价研究进展

在大量查阅国内外文献资料的基础上,阐述了国内外农业可持续性评价指标体系的选取标准与选取方法,在此基础上,综述了国内外农业可持续评价方法及评价尺度等研究进展情况。发现国内农业可持续性评价指标过多且以农业经济方面的指标为主,指标之间重叠现象严重,对生态环境、政策性和指导性指标重视不够,而且评价方法有待进一步完善。最后,针对农业可持续性评价中存在的问题提出了一些建议,以期对国内农业的可持续评价研究有所借鉴。     

山东地震台网监测预警能力评估分析

国家地震烈度速报与预警项目已进入试运行阶段,山东全省作为重点预警区,其预警能力直接关系山东及其周边地区的预警效能。为精确评估山东地震台网的监测预警能力,以本台网所记录到的波形数据为基础,将仪器最大概率峰值位移作为背景噪声评估指标获得山东地震台网的监测能力。在此基础上,考虑到预警时效性需求,系统评估了山东地震台网中,由125台速度计组成的测震台网、由152台加速度计组成的强震台网、由1198台烈度仪组成的烈度台网及其融合网的预警最小震级和首报时间。结果表明,山东地震台网平均监测能力达到M_L0.4,最小值可达M_L-0.2,最大值可达M_L1.1; 测震、强震和烈度台网“三网”融合后预警最小震级、首台触发后和震后的预警时间平均值分别约为M_L2.2、3s和5s,“三网”融合进行预警的策略可以满足地震预警“稳、准、快”的要求。     

基于修正RMR法评价体系的滨海深部开采矿山岩体质量评价

对深部开采矿山岩体进行质量评价时, RMR体系在考虑深部岩体质量影响因素以及评价指标评分值确定等方面存在不足之处。首先利用连续性细化计算方法对传统RMR法中岩石单轴抗压强度、RQD、节理间距、地应力等指标进行了修正, 得到了评价指标与其评分值之间的拟合回归曲线以及连续性方程, 其次, 在深入分析不良地质因素、深部采矿工艺及其对岩体质量影响机制的基础上, 提出爆破震动影响系数及采场暴露面积两个新评分项并建立了M-IRMR体系, 最后, 借助该体系对三山岛金矿深部采掘工程岩体质量进行了评价。研究对于深部矿山岩体工程的稳定性评价具有一定的指导与借鉴意义。     

晕轨道X射线脉冲星自主导航和轨道维持研究

目的 提出一种利用X射线脉冲星的晕轨道自主导航方法。以高精度星历轨道动力学模型构建晕轨道状态方程,并利用二级微分修正方法获取惯性系下晕轨道的标称轨道。基于微分修正原理,利用 X射线脉冲星的导航结果和小推力推进器,对晕轨道探测器进行轨道维持和控制,并以地月系 L2点晕轨道为例进行了仿真实验。结果表明,该方法能够有效完成地月系L2点晕轨道探测器的自主导航和轨道维持任务。     

基于挤喷流效应的Russell流体因子推广及应用

在油气勘探与开发过程中,寻求能够从地震资料中直接识别储层油气的流体指示因子至关重要.由于现存多数流体指示因子都是在Biot理论假设前提下建立起来的,因此在双相孔隙介质条件下不能有效地识别流体.为此,本文基于前人提出的双孔介质统一波动理论,考虑岩石裂缝间挤喷流效应,在经典流体指示因子基础上构建了一种新的流体指示因子.该流体因子能够较好地反映岩石内孔隙流体的变化对波传播产生的影响.在实际资料的应用中,采用多种方法分析、对比该流体识别因子与以Biot理论为基础的传统流体因子的优劣,理论分析与实际资料的验证表明该流体因子对于储层中油气的检测有较高的精度和灵敏度.     

西藏地堡那木岗矿区水系沉积物地球化学特征及找矿预测

利用SPSS等软件对矿区1：5万水系沉积物地球化学数据分析,选用平均值±3倍标准差（X±3S）作为上下限反复剔除原始数据的特值,使元素含量服从正态分布.最后以X+2S作为异常下限（T）,以1T、2T、4T三级浓度分带,圈定Cu、Au、Ag、Mo单元素异常和Au-Ag-Mo综合元素异常,揭示矿区内水系沉积物地球化学异常特征.将异常区与矿区地质特征、矿床（点）套合分析,表明异常受地层、断裂、围岩蚀变控制,对寻找矿（化）体、断层、围岩蚀变带有指示作用.最终,优选2处远景区,分别为3号综合异常区中心北北西方向至北东向断裂附近,1号、2号综合异常区及其东侧组成一个走向为东西向的异常带.     

三峡库区树坪滑坡地下水渗流场分析

库岸边坡的地下水分布对其稳定性影响重大。以三峡库区树坪滑坡为例,基于Visual Modflow软件,对不同工况下的地下水渗流场进行数值模拟。结论表明：滑坡地下水位随着库水位波动而变化; 滑坡体后缘地下水受到影响较小,中部和前缘水头变化明显; 在库水位下降过程中,滑坡体内地下水随时间变化呈现水位不变、加速下降、降速减缓、稳定水位的趋势,且不同库水降速只对地下水位变化速率产生影响,对最终地下水位没有影响; 库水位降速越大,滑坡前缘地下水位变化越强烈,水力梯度也越大,且在滑坡东西两侧边界处形成的水力梯度最大。其成果将为库岸滑坡渗流场变化及稳定性分析提供一定的参考价值。     

The use of digital technologies for landslide disaster risk research and disaster risk management: progress and prospects

Landslide is a serious natural disaster next only to earthquake and flood, which will cause a great threat to people’s lives and property safety. The traditional research of landslide disaster based on experience-driven or statistical model and its assessment results are subjective , difficult to quantify, and no pertinence. As a new research method for landslide susceptibility assessment, machine learning can greatly improve the landslide susceptibility model’s accuracy by constructing statistical models. Taking Western Henan for example, the study selected 16 landslide influencing factors such as topography, geological environment, hydrological conditions, and human activities, and 11 landslide factors with the most significant influence on the landslide were selected by the recursive feature elimination (RFE) method. Five machine learning methods [Support Vector Machines (SVM), Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA)] were used to construct the spatial distribution model of landslide susceptibility. The models were evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic curve and statistical index. After analysis and comparison, the XGBoost model (AUC 0.8759) performed the best and was suitable for dealing with regression problems. The model had a high adaptability to landslide data. According to the landslide susceptibility map of the five models, the overall distribution can be observed. The extremely high and high susceptibility areas are distributed in the Funiu Mountain range in the southwest, the Xiaoshan Mountain range in the west, and the Yellow River Basin in the north. These areas have large terrain fluctuations, complicated geological structural environments and frequent human engineering activities. The extremely high and highly prone areas were 12043.3 km² and 3087.45 km², accounting for 47.61% and 12.20% of the total area of the study area, respectively. Our study reflects the distribution of landslide susceptibility in western Henan Province, which provides a scientific basis for regional disaster warning, prediction, and resource protection. The study has important practical significance for subsequent landslide disaster management.     

TRMM多卫星降水分析资料揭示的青藏高原及其周边地区夏季降水日变化

利用国家气象信息中心提供的2008—2013年6—8月中国自动站逐小时降水资料与CMORPH（CPC MORPHing technique）卫星反演降水资料融合生成的逐小时融合降水产品（0.1°网格数据集）和2001—2012年6—8月的NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料,对辽宁省夏季降水时空分布特征及其成因进行了较为深入统计、分析,结果表明：（1）辽宁省平均日降水频率的大值区位于辽东地区,这与该地区位于千山—龙岗山山区和夏季低层盛行偏南风密切相关。（2）辽宁地区平均小时降水率大值区也分布在辽东,辽东南为大值区的中心,主要原因为其一,该地区位于中低层比湿场的湿舌处,其二,该地区夏季中低层盛行的西南风遇千山—龙岗山被迫抬升形成中低层上升速度中心。（3）辽宁省降水日变化特征明显：辽西山区、辽宁西北部、辽东—东南部山区为午后到前半夜降水峰值频发区,而中部平原地区、南部沿海地区为凌晨降水峰值频发区。（4）地理环境决定的局地热力、动力过程和天气系统同时影响日降水峰值发生时间,当天气系统较为稳定的处于发展初期和后期时,其影响区域内降水日变化符合前述规律,但当天气系统明显发展或移动,其影响区域内日降水峰值多数发生在该时刻附近。（5）降水日变化规律与天气类型关系不是很大,即在各类天气系统诱发的降水过程中,由地理环境决定的降水日变化规律均存在。（6）辽宁地区西部山地高原、中部平原、东部山地丘陵、南临海洋的独特地理环境决定的局地热力、动力环流及夜间到凌晨加强的由海到陆的西南风暖湿气流是其降水日变化特征的产生的主要原因。