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981.
Gabriella Sch?ll-Barna Attila Demény Gábor Serlegi Szilvia Fábián Pál Sümegi István Fórizs Bernadett Bajnóczi 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2012,47(1):87-100
Geochemical records of bivalve shells have been increasingly studied in the last decade to obtain information on climate conditions.
In this paper we present stable isotope compositions of living and prehistoric shells of freshwater mussels (Unionidae) and
their relationships with climate conditions in a shallow lake environment of Lake Balaton, West-Central Hungary. Physical
conditions and stable oxygen isotope compositions of lake water samples were monitored where living bivalves were collected.
Comparisons between seasonal variations in ambient temperature, water composition and within-shell isotopic variations indicate
that the shells of Unio pictorum do reflect local changes at high resolution and thus can be used to study past conditions. Additionally, shells covering
the last two decades were gathered at several locations along the lake in order to determine spatial and temporal variations
in the shells’ isotopic compositions as a function of weather conditions. As an application, prehistoric shells collected
in archaeological excavations were analysed in order to study past environmental variations. Climate variations during the
Late Copper Age (5460–4870 cal. yr BP) have been assumed on the basis of geomorphological and archaeozoological observations
at the site Balatonkeresztúr-Réti-dűlő (south of Lake Balaton), that suggested increasing humidity as a cause of changes in
settlement location and domestic livestock husbandry. Stable carbon and oxygen isotope compositions of prehistoric bivalve
shells were analyzed from excavations representing five archaeological subphases (Boleráz subphase, 5460–5310 cal. yr BP;
two transitional subphases around 5310 cal. yr BP; Early Classic subphase, 5310–5060 cal. yr BP; Late Classic subphase, 5040–4870 cal.
yr BP). The analyses revealed significant negative C and O isotope shifts in the transitional subphases relative to the earlier
and later subphases. The isotopic variations indicate that the local climate became relatively wet and possibly cold around
5310 cal. yr BP, then it returned to drier (and likely warmer) conditions during the Classic subphases. This interpretation
is in agreement with previous studies on climate changes related to the “5.3 ky event” in the European continental area and
the North Atlantic Region, indicating an Atlantic influence in the Carpathian Basin. 相似文献
982.
Federico M. Dávila Mario E. Giménez Julieta C. Nóbile M. Patricia Martínez 《Basin Research》2012,24(6):615-636
The Pipanaco Basin, in the southern margin of the Andean Puna plateau at ca. 28°SL, is one of the largest and highest intermontane basins within the northernmost Argentine broken foreland. With a surface elevation >1000 m above sea level, this basin represents a strategic location to understand the subsidence and subsequent uplift history of high‐elevation depositional surfaces within the distal Andean foreland. However, the stratigraphic record of the Pipanaco Basin is almost entirely within the subsurface, and no geophysical surveys have been conducted in the region. A high‐resolution gravity study has been designed to understand the subsurface basin geometry. This study, together with stratigraphic correlations and flexural and backstripping analysis, suggests that the region was dominated by a regional subsidence episode of ca. 2 km during the Miocene‐Pliocene, followed by basement thrusting and ca. 1–1.5 km of sediment filling within restricted intermontane basin between the Pliocene‐Pleistocene. Based on the present‐day position of the basement top as well as the Neogene‐Present sediment thicknesses across the Sierras Pampeanas, which show slight variations along strike, sediment aggradation is not the most suitable process to account for the increase in the topographic level of the high‐elevation, close‐drainage basins of Argentina. The close correlation between the depth to basement and the mean surface elevations recorded in different swaths indicates that deep‐seated geodynamic process affected the northern Sierras Pampeanas. Seismic tomography, as well as a preliminary comparison between the isostatic and seismic Moho, suggests a buoyant lithosphere beneath the northern Sierras Pampeanas, which might have driven the long‐wavelength rise of this part of the broken foreland after the major phase of deposition in these Andean basins. 相似文献
983.
Alexander M. Heyng Christoph Mayr Andreas Lücke Bernd Striewski Stefan Wasteg?rd Holger Wissel 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2012,48(2):351-366
Maar lakes in the Auckland Volcanic Field are important high-resolution archives of Holocene environmental change in the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. Stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analyses were applied on bulk organic matter and the green alga Botryococcus from a sediment core from Lake Pupuke (Auckland, North Island, New Zealand) spanning the period since 7,165?cal.?year BP. The origin of organic matter was established using total-organic?Ccarbon-to-nitrogen ratios (TOC/TN) as well as organic carbon (??13COM) and nitrogen (??15N) isotope composition of potential modern sources. This approach demonstrated that the contribution of allochthonous organic matter to the lake sediment was negligible for most of the record. The sedimentary TOC/TN ratios that are higher than Redfield ratio (i.e. >7) are attributed to N-limiting conditions throughout the record. Variations of nitrogen and carbon isotopes during the last 7,165?years are interpreted as changes in the dominant processes in the lake. While epilimnetic primary productivity controlled isotope composition before 6,600?cal.?year BP, microbial processes, especially denitrification and methane oxidation, caused overall shifts of the ??15N and ??13C values since the Mid-Holocene. Comparisons with climate reconstructions from the Northern Island suggest that changes in the wind-induced lake overturn and a shift to more pronounced seasonality were the most likely causes for lake-internal changes since 6,600?cal.?year BP. 相似文献
984.
Francisco Estrada Benjamín Martínez-López Cecilia Conde Carlos Gay-García 《Climatic change》2012,110(3-4):1029-1046
This paper presents a review of the methodology applied for generating the regional climate change scenarios utilized in important National Documents of Mexico, such as the Fourth National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Fourth National Report to the Convention on Biological Diversity and The Economics of Climate Change in Mexico. It is shown that these regional climate change scenarios, which are one of the main inputs to support the assessments presented in these documents, are an example of the erroneous use of statistical downscaling techniques. The arguments presented here imply that the work based on such scenarios should be revised and therefore, these documents are inadequate for supporting national decision- making. 相似文献
985.
Many forest pest species strongly depend on temperature in their population dynamics, so that rising temperatures worldwide as a consequence of climatic change are leading to increased frequencies and intensities of insect-pest outbreaks. In the Mediterranean area, the climatic conditions are strongly linked to the effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The aim of this work is to analyze the dynamics of the pine processionary moth (Thaumetopoea pityocampa), a severe pest of Pinus species in the Circunmediterranean, throughout a region of southern Spain, in relation to NAO indices. We related the percentage of forest plots with high defoliation by pine processionary moth each year with NAO values for the present and the three previous winters, using generalized linear models with a binomial error distribution. The time series is 16-year long, and we performed analyses for the whole database and for the five main pine species separately. We found a consistent relationship between the response variable and the NAO index. The relationship is stronger with pine species living at medium-high altitudes, such as Aleppo (P. halepensis), black (P. nigra), and Scots (Pinus sylvestris) pine, which show the higher defoliation intensities up to 3?years after a negative NAO phase. The results highlight, for the first time, the usefulness of using global drivers in order to understand the dynamics of pest outbreaks at a regional scale, and they open the window to the development of NAO-based predictive models as an early-warning signal of severe pest outbreaks. 相似文献
986.
M. I. Ortego R. Tolosana-Delgado J. Gibergans-Báguena J. J. Egozcue A. Sánchez-Arcilla 《Climatic change》2012,113(3-4):713-731
It has been suggested that climate change might modify the occurrence rate of large storms and their magnitude, due to a higher availability of energy in the atmosphere-ocean system. Forecasting physical models are commonly used to assess the effects. No one expects the physical model forecasts for one specific day to be accurate; we consider them to be good if they adequately describe the statistical characteristics of the climate. The Peak-Over-Threshold (POT) method is a common way to statistically treat the occurrence and magnitude of hazardous events: here, occurrence is modelled as a Poisson process and magnitude over a given threshold is assumed to follow a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). We restrict our attention to Weibull-related GPDs, which exhibit an upper bound, to comply with the fact that any physical process has a finite upper limit. This contribution uses this framework to model time series of log-significant wave-height constructed joining quasi-collocated hindcast data and buoy measurements. Two of the POT model parameters (inhomogeneous Poisson rate and logarithm of the GPD shape parameter are considered to be a combination of a linear function of time and a series indicator function. The third parameter, logarithm of the GPD upper bound, is considered to have only a series indicator component. The resulting parameters are estimated using Bayesian methods. Using hincast and buoy series, the time span of the data set is extended, enhancing the precision of statistical results about potential linear changes. Simultaneously the statistical behaviour of hincast and buoy series are compared. At the same time, the step function allows to calibrate the statistical reproduction of storms by hindcasting. 相似文献
987.
Assessment of global warming on the island of Tenerife, Canary Islands (Spain). Trends in minimum, maximum and mean temperatures since 1944 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Temperature variation is studied at different altitudes and orientation on the island of Tenerife, according to the trends in the mean, maximum and minimum at 21 meteorological stations. Reference series are obtained by sectors, along with a representative overall series for Tenerife, in which temperature shows a statistically significant growth trend of 0.09?±?0.04°C/decade since 1944. Night-time temperatures have risen most (0.17°C?±?0.04°C/decade), while by day they have been more stable. Consequently, the diurnal temperature range between day and night has narrowed. By regions, warming has been much more intense in the high mountains than the other sectors below the inversion layer between 600 and 1,400?m altitude, and progressively milder towards the coast. The temperature rise on the windward (north-northeast) slopes is greater than on the leeward side and could be related to the increase in cloudiness on the northern side. The general warming of the island is less than in continental areas at between 24 and 44oN, being closer to the sea surface temperature in the same area. This is probably explained largely by the insular conditions. In fact warming is more evident in the high mountains (0.14?±?0.07°C/decade), where the tempering effect of the ocean and the impact of changes in the stratocumulus is weaker, being similar to the mean continental values in the northern hemisphere. 相似文献
988.
Downslope windstorms at Kvísker in Southeast Iceland are explored using a mesoscale model, observations and numerical analysis of the atmosphere. Two different types of gravity-wave induced windstorms are identified. At the surface, their main difference is in the horizontal extent of the lee-side accelerated flow. Type S (Short) is a westerly windstorm, which is confined to the lee-slopes of Mount ?r?faj?kull, while a Type E (Extended) windstorm occurs in the northerly flow and is not confined to the lee-slopes but continues some distance downstream of the mountain. The Type S windstorm may be characterized as a more pure gravity-wave generated windstorm than the Type E windstorm which bears a greater resemblance to local flow acceleration described by hydraulic theory. The low-level flow in the Type E windstorm is of arctic origin and close to neutral with an inversion well above the mountain top level. At middle tropospheric levels there is a reverse vertical windshear. The Type S windstorm occurs in airmasses of southerly origin. It also has a well-mixed, but a shallower boundary-layer than the Type E windstorms. Aloft, the winds increase with height and there is an amplified gravity wave. Climate projections indicate a possible decrease in windstorm frequency up to the year 2050. 相似文献
989.
Isidro A. Pérez M. Luisa Sánchez M. ángeles García 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,107(1-2):247-253
Temperature and wind speed profiles obtained from 3?years of radio acoustic sounding system sodar measurements at a rural site in the northern Spanish plateau were fitted to polynomial functions. Depending on the extrema of these fits, several groups of profiles were considered. Daily evolution of temperature profiles corresponded to the lower boundary layer evolution. However, wind speed profiles revealed a frequent low-level jet during the whole day. CO2 surface concentrations were analysed, and surface CO2 dilution was also considered by selection of thin canopies with variable depth, resulting in dilution rates of 7 and 18?ppm when the layer increased 100?m for the 95th percentile and temperature and wind speed profiles, respectively. 相似文献
990.
Performance of ENSEMBLES regional climate models over Central Europe using various metrics 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Eva Holtanová Ji?í Mik?ovsky Jaroslava Kalvová Petr Pi?oft Martin Motl 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,108(3-4):463-470
We show the evaluation of ENSEMBLES regional climate models (RCMs) driven by reanalysis ERA40 over a region centered at the Czech Republic. Attention is paid especially to the model ALADIN-CLIMATE/CZ, being used as the basis of the new climate change scenarios simulation for the Czech Republic. The validation criteria used here are based on monthly or seasonal mean air temperature and precipitation. We concentrate not only on spatiotemporal mean values but also on temporal standard deviation, inter-annual variability, the mean annual cycle, and the skill of the models to represent the observed spatial patterns of these quantities. Model ALADIN-CLIMATE/CZ performs quite well in comparison to the other RCMs; we find its performance satisfactory for further use for impact studies. However, it is also shown that the results of evaluation of the RCMs’ skill in simulating observed climate strongly depend on the criteria incorporated for the evaluation. 相似文献