Schedule estimation and uncertainty surrounding the cone of uncertainty

Software development project schedule estimation has long been a difficult problem. The Standish CHAOS Report indicates that only 20 percent of projects finish on time relative to their original plan. Conventional wisdom proposes that estimation gets better as a project progresses. This concept is sometimes called the cone of uncertainty, a term popularized by Steve McConnell (1996). The idea that uncertainty decreases significantly as one obtains new knowledge seems intuitive. Metrics collected from Landmark's projects show that the estimation accuracy of project duration followed a lognormal distribution, and the uncertainty range was nearly identical throughout the project, in conflict with popular interpretation of the "cone of uncertainty".     

Response of dermal fibroblast cultures from patients with unusually severe responses to radiotherapy and from ataxia telangiectasia heterozygotes to fractionated radiation

We examined the cytotoxic effects of radiation delivered in daily fractions at clinically relevant doses in plateau phase cultures of skin fibroblast cell strains derived from ataxia telangiectasia (AT) heterozygotes, patients with unusually sensitive responses to radiotherapy, apparently normal patients, and cell bank controls. A gradual linear reduction in surviving fraction versus total dose was observed in the control group, comprised of apparently normal individuals and one patient with a normal clinical response to radiotherapy, after exposure to daily fractions of 2.0 Gy. There was a much steeper decline in surviving fraction among the AT heterozygotes and the group with sensitive responses to radiotherapy, such that after six daily fractions of 2.0 Gy (12 Gy total dose), the mean surviving fraction of the control group was significantly different from that of the AT heterozygotes (P = 0.0009) and that of the patients with unusually sensitive responses to radiotherapy (P = 0.0002). We propose that this assay may be a useful means of identifying cell strains from AT heterozygotes. Based on these results, the hypothesis is discussed that patients who suffer unusually sensitive clinical reactions to radiotherapy may be AT heterozygotes.     

Patterns of DSM-III-R alcohol dependence symptom progression in a general population survey

Age of onset reports obtained retrospectively for each symptom of DSM-III-R alcohol dependence (AD) are used to study patterns of lifetime symptom progression in a large general-population survey of people in the United States. It is shown that symptom progression among a substantial majority of respondents can be summarized as movement across three clusters. Cluster A is defined by symptoms of role impairment/hazardous use (A4), use despite social, psychological or physical problems (A6), and drinking larger amounts or over a longer period of time than intended (A1). Cluster B is defined by tolerance (A7) and impaired control (A2, A3). Cluster C is defined by withdrawal (A8, A9) and giving up activities in order to drink (A5). Clusters are shown to follow a time sequence, with at least one symptom in Cluster A usually occurring first, followed by symptoms in Clusters B and C. In all, 83.4% of the symptom cluster transitions estimated from retrospective age of onset reports are consistent with this progression. Progression to AD is differentially predicted by symptom profiles reported at the age of first symptom onset, with persons reporting Cluster C symptoms most likely to progress subsequently to AD. Furthermore, profiles of AD defined by the highest symptom cluster present at AD onset are differentially predicted by prior personal and parental histories of psychopathology and, among men, are predictive of diagnosis persistence.     

A theoretical and photoelastic contact stress analysis relevant to orthopaedic knee prostheses

This study is based on a theoretical and photoelastic static contact stress analysis, relevant to the design of the plastic tibial plateau in an orthopaedic knee prosthesis. It involves the review of existing theoretical analyses concerned with the contact mechanics of layered elastic systems and, where possible, the validation of any relevant findings using two dimensional photoelasticity. Significant findings include the identification of a general minimum recommendable design thickness for the plastic tibial plateau, the endorsement of using the Hertzian contact theory to predict contact stress levels in the tibial plateau of certain knee implants and the slight improvement in contact conditions in the plastic when the plateau is perfectly bonded to its supporting metal tray.     

Optical-induced spectral tuning in grating-assisted nonlinearcouplers

The spectral (wavelength) properties of the grating-assisted nonlinear coupler are investigated theoretically. The interaction of linear and nonlinear wavelength-dependent phase detuning leads to a rich display of new and useful characteristics. Among these are bandpass tuning and spectral shaping. The grating frequency is viewed as a `free design parameter' which may be judiciously chosen to bring about an optimum behavior for a given application. As a wavelength processing element, the coupler behaves as an extended and continuously tunable wavelength filter, with tuning proportional to the input power. As an an-optical switch, a broadened and virtually transparent passband is easily achieved, which has desirable consequences for ultra-fast (large bandwidth) switching. The coupler may be operated in two complimentary modes: The active mode, where the power level of an input pulse or signal interacts in a nonlinear fashion with the passband of the coupler; and the passive mode, where a separate idler input is used to bias the device for a desired response to a smaller injected signal     

Procedures for analysis of strain transfer in the acetabular region in vitro

The failure of acetabular cups via loosening, migration or fracture is partially related to the stress distribution existing in the acetabular region. The complexity of the investigation of these stresses demands the application of a variety of model testing techniques involving combined embedded strain gauging, finite element analysis, transmission and reflective photoelasticity and crack propagation studies. The application of these procedures are described and the difficulties of obtaining representative loadings and restraints are commented upon.     

Continuous and discontinuous fatigue crack growth of irradiated ultrahigh molecular mass polyethylene in saline solution at 37°C

To provide data for prosthesis design, the fatigue crack growth resistance of irradiated ultrahigh molecular mass polyethylene (UHMMPE) in saline solution at 37°C was determined from tests performed on compact tension specimens, comparable in size to the components in knee prostheses. The specimens were cyclically loaded by using a sinusoidal wave form at 1 Hz with a minimum-to-maximum load ratio of 0.1. Scanning electron microscopic fractography was used to examine the fracture surfaces. At higher stress levels, the Paris's Law was used to analyse the data, and a striation pattern with each striation corresponding to multi-cycles was observed. At lower stress levels, discontinuous fatigue crack growth was found, a phenomenon which dominated the fatigue life of the material and had not been reported previously in this material. A craze zone ahead of the crack tip was observed, which formed the discontinuous crack growth band with a length relevant to the Dugdale plastic zone length.     

Very high-order microring resonator filters for WDM applications

High-order microring resonators having from 1 to 11 coupled cavities are demonstrated. These filters exhibit low loss, flat tops, and out-of-band rejection ratios that can exceed 80 dB. They achieve performance that is suitable for commercial applications.