Statistical inference under adaptive progressive censoring scheme

In this paper, a general exponential form of the underlying distribution and a general conjugate prior are used to discuss the maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation based on an adaptive progressive censored sample. A general procedure for deriving the point and interval Bayesian prediction of the future progressive censored from the same sample as well as that from an unobserved future sample is also developed. The Weibull, Pareto, and Burr Type-XII distributions are then used as illustrative examples. Finally, two numerical examples are presented for illustrating all the inferential procedures developed here.     

Odd Log-Logistic Modified Weibull Distribution

We introduce and study a new distribution called the odd log-logistic modified Weibull (OLLMW) distribution. Various of its structural properties are obtained in terms of Meijer’s G-function, such as the moments, generating function, conditional moments, mean deviations, order statistics and maximum likelihood estimators. The distribution exhibits a wide range of shapes varying skewness and takes all possible forms of hazard rate function. We fit the OLLMW and some competitive models to two data sets and prove empirically that the new model has a superior performance among the compared distributions as evidenced by some goodness-of-fit statistics.     

混合Weibull分布参数估计的ECM算法

混合威布尔分布是寿命数据分析中一个重要的统计模型.但是利用传统的统计方法,如矩估计、极大似然估计等估计模型的参数比较困难.应用ECM算法详细研究了混合威布尔分布在正常工作条件下,完全数据场合、Ⅰ-型截尾和Ⅱ-截尾场合的参数估计问题.数据模拟表明利用ECM算法来估计混合威布尔分布是一种有效的方法.     

On characterizations of continuous distributions in terms of moments of order statistics when the sample size is random

We characterize continuous distribution functions F of a population when the sample size N is a random variable. Characterizing conditions in terms of moments of the kth order statistics are given, among other things, for the uniform, exponential, Pareto, logistic, and Weibull distributions. Proceedings of the Seminar on Stability Problems for Stochastic Models. Hajdúszoboszló, Hungary, 1997, Part II.     

A note on the sampling distribution of the information content of the priority vector of a consistent pairwise comparison judgment matrix of AHP

The sampling distribution of the information content (entropy) of the priority vector of a consistent pairwise comparison judgment matrix, PCJM(n) using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is studied by Noble and Sanchez, where n is the number of criteria associated with the matrix. They concluded simulation experiments with sample size of 1000 and found that the distribution is normal for n=4,5,...,15. When we increased the sample size to 2000, to 3000,..., to 8000, we found that the sampling distribution of entropy is not normal for all n, n=4,5,...,15. By using BestFit software system and using sample sizes of 8000, we found that the best-fitted and the second-best-fitted distributions of the entropy are either Weibull or normal for n?4. If we consider the most number of best fitted distributions as the criteria, then Weibull should be considered as the sampling distribution of the entropy for n?4. For n=3, beta should be considered as the best-fitted distribution.     

On nonlinear weighted errors-in-variables parameter estimation problem in the three-parameter Weibull model

This paper is concerned with the three-parameter Weibull distribution which is widely used as a model in reliability and lifetime studies. In practice, the Weibull model parameters are not known in advance and must be estimated from a random sample. Difficulties in applying the method of maximum likelihood to three-parameter Weibull models have led to a variety of alternative approaches in the literature. In this paper we consider the nonlinear weighted errors-in-variables (EIV) fitting approach. As a main result, two theorems on the existence of the EIV estimate are obtained. An illustrative example is also included.     

Bayesian inference for Rayleigh distribution under progressive censored sample

It is often the case that some information is available on the parameter of failure time distributions from previous experiments or analyses of failure time data. The Bayesian approach provides the methodology for incorporation of previous information with the current data. In this paper, given a progressively type II censored sample from a Rayleigh distribution, Bayesian estimators and credible intervals are obtained for the parameter and reliability function. We also derive the Bayes predictive estimator and highest posterior density prediction interval for future observations. Two numerical examples are presented for illustration and some simulation study and comparisons are performed. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A first–passage time random walk distribution with five transition probabilities: a generalization of the shifted inverse trinomial

In this paper a univariate discrete distribution, denoted by GIT, is proposed as a generalization of the shifted inverse trinomial distribution, and is formulated as a first-passage time distribution of a modified random walk on the half-plane with five transition probabilities. In contrast, the inverse trinomial arises as a random walk on the real line with three transition probabilities. The probability mass function (pmf) is expressible in terms of the Gauss hypergeometric function and this offers computational advantage due to its recurrence formula. The descending factorial moment is also obtained. The GIT contains twenty-two possible distributions in total. Special cases include the binomial, negative binomial, shifted negative binomial, shifted inverse binomial or, equivalently, lost-games, and shifted inverse trinomial distributions. A subclass GIT_3,1 is a particular member of Kemp’s class of convolution of pseudo-binomial variables and its properties such as reproductivity, formulation, pmf, moments, index of dispersion, and approximations are studied in detail. Compound or generalized (stopped sum) distributions provide inflated models. The inflated GIT_3,1 extends Minkova’s inflated-parameter binomial and negative binomial. A bivariate model which has the GIT as a marginal distribution is also proposed.     

Transmuted lower record type inverse rayleigh distribution: estimation,characterizations and applications

This study introduces a new lifetime distribution called the transmuted lower record type inverse Rayleigh which extends the inverse Rayleigh distribution and has the potential to model the recovery times of Covid-19 patients.The new distribution is obtained using the distributions of the first two lower record statistics of the inverse Rayleigh distribution. We discuss some statistical inferences and mathematical properties of the suggested distribution. We examine some characteristics of the proposed distribution such as density shape, hazard function,moments, moment generating function, incomplete moments,Rényi entropy, order statistics, stochastic ordering. We consider five estimation methods such as maximum likelihood, least squares, weighted least squares, Anderson-Darling, Cramér-von Mises for the point estimation of the proposed distribution. Then, a comprehensive Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out to assess the risk behavior of the examined estimators. We provide two real data applications to illustrate the fitting ability of the proposed model, and compare its fit with competitor ones. Unlike many previously proposed distributions, the introduced distribution in this paper has modeled the recovery times of Covid-19 patients.

     

New estimating equation approaches with application in lifetime data analysis

Estimating equation approaches have been widely used in statistics inference. Important examples of estimating equations are the likelihood equations. Since its introduction by Sir R. A. Fisher almost a century ago, maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is still the most popular estimation method used for fitting probability distribution to data, including fitting lifetime distributions with censored data. However, MLE may produce substantial bias and even fail to obtain valid confidence intervals when data size is not large enough or there is censoring data. In this paper, based on nonlinear combinations of order statistics, we propose new estimation equation approaches for a class of probability distributions, which are particularly effective for skewed distributions with small sample sizes and censored data. The proposed approaches may possess a number of attractive properties such as consistency, sufficiency and uniqueness. Asymptotic normality of these new estimators is derived. The construction of new estimation equations and their numerical performance under different censored schemes are detailed via Weibull distribution and generalized exponential distribution.     

Can Data Recognize Its Parent Distribution?

This study is concerned with model selection of lifetime and survival distributions arising in engineering reliability or in the medical sciences. We compare various distributions—including the gamma, Weibull, and lognormal—with a new distribution called geometric extreme exponential. Except for the lognormal distribution, the other three distributions all have the exponential distribution as special cases. A Monte Carlo simulation was performed to determine sample sizes for which survival distributions can distinguish data generated by their own families. Two methods for decision are by maximum likelihood and by Kolmogorov distance. Neither method is uniformly best. The probability of correct selection with more than one alternative shows some surprising results when the choices are close to the exponential distribution.     

Inference for a progressive stress model from Weibull distribution under progressive type-II censoring

Based on progressively type-II censored samples, this paper considers progressive stress accelerated life tests when the lifetime of an item under use condition follows the Weibull distribution with a scale parameter satisfying the inverse power law. It is assumed that the progressive stress is directly proportional to time and the cumulative exposure model for the effect of changing stress holds. Point estimation of the model parameters is obtained graphically by using Weibull probability paper plot that serves as a tool for model identification and also by using the maximum likelihood method. Interval estimation is performed by finding approximate confidence intervals (CIs) for the parameters as well as the studentized-t and percentile bootstrap CIs. Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out to investigate the precision of the estimates and compare the performance of CIs obtained. Finally, two examples are presented to illustrate our results.     

一般寿命分布和定时截尾的Bayes变量抽样方案

林（1994）研究了指数分布和定时截尾的变量抽样方案．本文将讨论一般寿命分布和定时截尾的一次抽样方案．在多项式损失函数的假设下,我们讨论了Weibull分布、双参数指数分布和-分布三种情形,并着重讨论Weibull分布的情形．本文还提出了一个可用于近似地确定最优抽样方案的有报算法,并且进行了灵敏度分析,还同林较早的模型（1990,1994）做了比较．     

Bayesian forecasting with the Holt–Winters model

Exponential smoothing methods are widely used as forecasting techniques in inventory systems and business planning, where reliable prediction intervals are also required for a large number of series. This paper describes a Bayesian forecasting approach based on the Holt–Winters model, which allows obtaining accurate prediction intervals. We show how to build them incorporating the uncertainty due to the smoothing unknowns using a linear heteroscedastic model. That linear formulation simplifies obtaining the posterior distribution on the unknowns; a random sample from such posterior, which is not analytical, is provided using an acceptance sampling procedure and a Monte Carlo approach gives the predictive distributions. On the basis of this scheme, point-wise forecasts and prediction intervals are obtained. The accuracy of the proposed Bayesian forecasting approach for building prediction intervals is tested using the 3003 time series from the M3-competition.     

Stochastic comparison of aggregate claim amounts between two heterogeneous portfolios and its applications

The aggregate claim amount in a particular time period is a quantity of fundamental importance for proper management of an insurance company and also for pricing of insurance coverages. In this paper, we show that the proportional hazard rates (PHR) model, which includes some well-known distributions such as exponential, Weibull and Pareto distributions, can be used as the aggregate claim amount distribution. We also present some conditions for the use of exponentiated Weibull distribution as the claim amount distribution. The results established here complete and extend the well-known result of Khaledi and Ahmadi (2008).     

Behaviour of queueing approximations based on sample moments

We investigate moment–based queueing approximations in the presence of sampling error. Let L be the steady–state mean number in the system for a GI/M/1 queue. We focus on the estimation of L under the assumption that only sample moments of the interarrival–time distribution are known. A simulation experiment is carried out for several interarrival–time distributions. For each case, sample moments from the interarrival–time distribution are matched to an approximating phase–type distribution and the corresponding estimate L is obtained. We show that the sampling error in the moments induces bias as well as variability in L. Based on our simulation experiment, we suggest matching only two moments when the sample coefficient of variation is low or when sample size is low; otherwise, matching three moments is preferable.     

Detecting tail behavior: mean excess plots with confidence bounds

In many practical situations exploratory plots are helpful in understanding tail behavior of sample data. The Mean Excess plot is one of the exploratory tools often used in practice to understand the right tail behavior of a data set. It is known that if the underlying distribution of a data sample is in the maximum domain of attraction of a Fréchet, a Gumbel or a Weibull distributions then the ME plot of the data approaches a straight line in an appropriate sense, with positive, zero or negative slope respectively. In this paper we construct confidence intervals around the ME plots which assist us in ascertaining which particular maximum domain of attraction the data set comes from. We recall weak limit results for the Fréchet domain of attraction, already obtained in Das and Ghosh (Bernoulli 19, 308–342 2013) and derive weak limits for the Gumbel and Weibull domains in order to construct confidence bounds. We demonstrate our methodology by applying them to simulated and real data sets.     

Study of cut-set distributions in the fuzzy reliability evaluation models

The performances of the cut-set distributions in the fuzzy reliability evaluation are studied based on cut-set method. Firstly, a theorem is proved to indicate the convergence defect of the model with the three commonly used cut-set distributions, including uniform distribution, linear distribution and truncated normal distribution. Secondly, a general method is proposed to construct a new family of cut-set distributions named intrinsic cut-set distributions, and three specific intrinsic cut-set distributions are obtained based on this method, including modified truncated normal distribution, truncated lognormal distribution and truncated Weibull distribution. Thirdly, numerical examples are carried out to verify the above theoretical results. It is shown that, compared with the three commonly used cut-set distributions, the proposed intrinsic cut-set distributions make the evaluation more stable and the fuzzy reliability model achieve good convergence at the boundary cases, which could effectively improve the evaluation accuracy and broaden the application of the model. Finally, some recommendations are given to show how to choose a suitable cut-set distribution in practice.     

An invariance property of quadratic forms in random vectors with a selection distribution,with application to sample variogram and covariogram estimators

We study conditions under which an invariance property holds for the class of selection distributions. First, we consider selection distributions arising from two uncorrelated random vectors. In that setting, the invariance holds for the so-called C{\cal{C}} -class and for elliptical distributions. Second, we describe the invariance property for selection distributions arising from two correlated random vectors. The particular case of the distribution of quadratic forms and its invariance, under various selection distributions, is investigated in more details. We describe the application of our invariance results to sample variogram and covariogram estimators used in spatial statistics and provide a small simulation study for illustration. We end with a discussion about other applications, for example such as linear models and indices of temporal/spatial dependence.     

On the limiting distribution of sample central moments

We investigate the limiting behavior of sample central moments, examining the special cases where the limiting (as the sample size tends to infinity) distribution is degenerate. Parent (non-degenerate) distributions with this property are called singular, and we show in this article that the singular distributions contain at most three supporting points. Moreover, using the delta-method, we show that the (second-order) limiting distribution of sample central moments from a singular distribution is either a multiple, or a difference of two multiples of independent Chi-square random variables with one degree of freedom. Finally, we present a new characterization of normality through the asymptotic independence of the sample mean and all sample central moments.