Adaptive efficient analysis for big data ergodic diffusion models

Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes - We consider drift estimation problems for high dimension ergodic diffusion processes in nonparametric setting based on observations at discrete...     

Robust adaptive efficient estimation for semi-Markov nonparametric regression models

Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes - We consider the nonparametric robust estimation problem for regression models in continuous time with semi-Markov noises. An adaptive model...     

Maximum likelihood estimation for hidden semi-Markov models

In this Note we consider a discrete-time hidden semi-Markov model and we prove that the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimators for the characteristics of such a model have nice asymptotic properties, namely consistency and asymptotic normality. To cite this article: V. Barbu, N. Limnios, C. R. Acad. Sci. Paris, Ser. I 342 (2006).     

Robust estimation in generalized semiparametric mixed models for longitudinal data

In this paper, we consider robust generalized estimating equations for the analysis of semiparametric generalized partial linear mixed models (GPLMMs) for longitudinal data. We approximate the non-parametric function in the GPLMM by a regression spline, and make use of bounded scores and leverage-based weights in the estimating equation to achieve robustness against outliers and influential data points, respectively. Under some regularity conditions, the asymptotic properties of the robust estimators are investigated. To avoid the computational problems involving high-dimensional integrals in our estimators, we adopt a robust Monte Carlo Newton-Raphson (RMCNR) algorithm for fitting GPLMMs. Small simulations are carried out to study the behavior of the robust estimates in the presence of outliers, and these estimates are also compared to their corresponding non-robust estimates. The proposed robust method is illustrated in the analysis of two real data sets.     

Weak convergence for generalized semi-Markov processes

Generalized semi-Markov schemes were introduced by Matthes in 1962 under the designation ‘Bedienungsschemata’ (service schemes). They include a large variety of familiar stochastic models. It is shown in this paper that under appropriate regularity conditions the associated stochastic process describing the state at timet,t≥0, and the stationary distribution are continuous functions of the life-times of the active components. The supplementary-variable Markov process is shown to be the limit process of a sequence of discrete-state-process obtained through approximating the life-time distributions by mixtures of Erlang distributions and measuring ages and residual life-times in phases. This approach supplements the phase method.     

An efficient sampling scheme for dynamic generalized models

A multimove sampling scheme for the state parameters of non-Gaussian and nonlinear dynamic models for univariate time series is proposed. This procedure follows the Bayesian framework, within a Gibbs sampling algorithm with steps of the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm. This sampling scheme combines the conjugate updating approach for generalized dynamic linear models, with the backward sampling of the state parameters used in normal dynamic linear models. A quite extensive Monte Carlo study is conducted in order to compare the results obtained using our proposed method, conjugate updating backward sampling (CUBS), with those obtained using some algorithms previously proposed in the Bayesian literature. We compare the performance of CUBS with other sampling schemes using two real datasets. Then we apply our algorithm in a stochastic volatility model. CUBS significantly reduces the computing time needed to attain convergence of the chains, and is relatively simple to implement.     

Age-usage semi-Markov models

This paper presents a non-homogeneous age-usage semi-Markov model with a measurable state space. Several probability functions useful to assess the system’s reliability are investigated. They satisfy the same family of equations we call indexed Markov renewal equations. Sufficient conditions to assure the existence and uniqueness of their solutions are provided. The numerical analysis of these equations is executed through the construction of a process discrete in time and space, which is shown to converge to the continuous one in the Skorohod topology. An algorithm useful for solving the discretized system of equations is presented by using a matrix representation.     

Adaptive Lasso estimators for ultrahigh dimensional generalized linear models

Generalized linear models have been more widely used than linear models which exclude categorical variables. The penalized method becomes an effective tool to study ultrahigh dimensional generalized linear models. In this paper, we study theoretical results of the adaptive Lasso for generalized linear models in terms of diverging number of parameters and ultrahigh dimensionality. The asymptotic results are examined by several simulation studies.     

混合双重广义线性模型的参数估计

在实际应用中,不同类别的数据统计特性存在差异,所以对异质总体的研究非常有必要.基于总体一,二阶矩存在,利用双重广义线性模型对异质总体的不同子类数据的均值和散度同时建模,研究提出了混合双重广义线性模型.然后,利用EM算法构造了模型参数的最大扩展拟似然估计和最大伪似然估计.最后,通过随机模拟和实例研究,结果表明模型和方法的有效性和有用性.     

Adaptive quasi-likelihood estimate in generalized linear models

This paper gives a thorough theoretical treatment on the adaptive quasi-likelihood estimate of the parameters in the generalized linear models. The unknown covariance matrix of the response variable is estimated by the sample. It is shown that the adaptive estimator defined in this paper is asymptotically most efficient in the sense that it is asymptotic normal, and the covariance matrix of the limit distribution coincides with the one for the quasi-likelihood estimator for the case that the covariance matrix of the response variable is completely known.     

Adaptive estimation in circular functional linear models

We consider the problem of estimating the slope parameter in circular functional linear regression, where scalar responses Y ₁, ..., Y _n are modeled in dependence of 1-periodic, second order stationary random functions X ₁, ...,X _n . We consider an orthogonal series estimator of the slope function β, by replacing the first m theoretical coefficients of its development in the trigonometric basis by adequate estimators. We propose a model selection procedure for m in a set of admissible values, by defining a contrast function minimized by our estimator and a theoretical penalty function; this first step assumes the degree of ill-posedness to be known. Then we generalize the procedure to a random set of admissible m’s and a random penalty function. The resulting estimator is completely data driven and reaches automatically what is known to be the optimal minimax rate of convergence, in terms of a general weighted L ²-risk. This means that we provide adaptive estimators of both β and its derivatives.     

A robust and efficient estimation method for single-index varying-coefficient models

A new estimation procedure based on modal regression is proposed for single-index varying-coefficient models. The proposed method achieves better robustness and efficiency than that of Xue and Pang (2013). We establish the asymptotic normalities of proposed estimators and evaluate the performance of the proposed method by a numerical simulation.     

Full backward non-homogeneous semi-Markov processes for disability insurance models: A Catalunya real data application

In this paper a stochastic model for disability insurance contracts is presented. The model is based on a discrete time non-homogeneous semi-Markov process to which the backward recurrence time process is joined. This permits us to study in a more complete way the disability evolution and to face the duration problem in a more effective way. The model is applied to a sample of contracts drawn at random from a mutual insurance company.     

An iterative estimation and validation procedure for specification of semi-Markov models with application to hospital patient flow

This article presents a methodology to identify and specify a continuous time semi-Markov model of population flow within a network of service facilities. An iterative procedure of state space definition, population disaggregation, and parameter estimation leads to the specification of a model which satisfies the underlying semi-Markov assumptions. We also present a test of the impact of occupancy upon realizations of population flows. The procedure is applied to data describing the movement of obstetric patients in a large university teaching hospital. We use the model to predict length-of-stay distributions. Finally, we compare these results with those that would have been obtained without the procedure, and show the modified model to be superior.     

Asymptotic efficient estimation in semiparametric nonlinear regression models

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Bridge estimation for generalized linear models with a diverging number of parameters

Variable selection is fundamental to high dimensional generalized linear models. A number of variable selection approaches have been proposed in the literature. This paper considers the problem of variable selection and estimation in generalized linear models via a bridge penalty in the situation where the number of parameters diverges with the sample size. Under reasonable conditions the consistency of the bridge estimator can be achieved. Furthermore, it can select the nonzero coefficients with a probability converging to 1 and the estimators of nonzero coefficients have the asymptotic normality, namely the oracle property. Our simulations indicate that the bridge penalty is an effective consistent model selection technique and is comparable to the smoothly clipped absolute deviation procedure. A real example analysis is presented.     

Estimation in generalized linear models for functional data via penalized likelihood

We analyze in a regression setting the link between a scalar response and a functional predictor by means of a Functional Generalized Linear Model. We first give a theoretical framework and then discuss identifiability of the model. The functional coefficient of the model is estimated via penalized likelihood with spline approximation. The L² rate of convergence of this estimator is given under smoothness assumption on the functional coefficient. Heuristic arguments show how these rates may be improved for some particular frameworks.     

Optimal decorrelated score subsampling for generalized linear models with massive data

In this paper, we consider the unified optimal subsampling estimation and inference on the lowdimensional parameter of main interest in the presence of the nuisance parameter for low/high-dimensional generalized linear models(GLMs) with massive data. We first present a general subsampling decorrelated score function to reduce the influence of the less accurate nuisance parameter estimation with the slow convergence rate. The consistency and asymptotic normality of the resultant subsample estimat...