Overview of Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation in China's Agriculture

The purpose of this paper is to document the likely impacts of climate change on China’s agriculture and the current adaptation efforts made by government and farmers.The review of literature shows that climate change will have a significant impact on agriculture,primarily through its effect on crop yields.The extent of predicted impacts highly depends on the crop,the CO2 fertilization effect assumption and adaptation abilities.Market response to the production shocks resulting from climate change will lessen the impacts on agricultural production predicted by natural scientists.On adaptation,the government’s major efforts have been in the developing new technologies,reforming extension system and enhancing institutional capacity.Farmers do adapt to climate change,but their adaptation measures cannot fully offset the negative impacts of climate change.The paper concludes and makes implications for future studies.     

全球气候变化对中国农业的影响

The present paper shows possible effects that global climate change affects China''s agriculture.As a result,its bad effects are more than good effects.     

福州市气候变化特征及其对农业的影响

以福州市34年的降水和气温基本气象资料,分析了气候变化的特征和规律。福州市年平均气温呈现上升趋势,主要集中于春、冬季;年降水量主要集中在春季和夏季,近期呈现减少趋势。文中并指出了气候变化对农业产量、气象灾害等方面的影响。     

应对气候变化对未来中国农业生产影响的问题和挑战

通过整合农业科学界从不同行业产业角度和不同的影响方面对气候变化可能带来农业生产影响的分析资料,梳理和辨析了气候变化对农业生产影响的途径和机理,提出了气候变化对中国国家尺度农业影响的发酵效应假设:气候变化因子间相互作用与交错叠加,产业的传递和反馈,可能带来不利效应的严重放大;未来气候变化下中国农业面临的基本问题将是:农业技术进步的迟滞性和农业生产能力的波动性,稳定农业生产水平和粮食供应能力将愈来愈困难。讨论和建议了应对气候变化的若干国家战略,这些战略应基于气候变化对中国农业生产的影响的敏感性行业和地区,气候变化的突出性趋势的认识。防患和应对极端性气象灾害事件将成为应对气候变化对农业影响的首要任务,需要加强研究和技术储备,同时迫切需要新的组织和运行机制全面开展气候变化对中国农业生产影响的试验和技术开发研究。     

Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation in Agriculture

Mitigation and adaptation are two principle strategies for managing human-induced climate change. Agriculture plays a duet role in climate change. It has been a major source of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. It is also one of the sectors most vulnerable to the risks and impacts of global climate change. This paper first indentified the mitigative and adaptative options and potential in agriculture, then addressed the integrated analysis of mitigation and adaptation and its benefits for agriculture. Finally, it discussed the implications to Chinese agriculture in dealing with the global climate change.     

近50年中国东北地区气候变化对农业的影响

在回顾中国学者关于东北地区气候变化及对农业影响研究成果基础上,系统概括分析了近50年东北地区农业气候资源和灾害的变化特征及气候变化对农业的影响特征。近50年东北地区升温明显,生长季热量资源增加;农业可用水资源和光能资源呈不同程度减少趋势,且时空分布不均。霜冻害、低温冷害、寒潮、洪涝、冰雹等农业气象灾害减少,旱灾增加。东北地区气候变化对农业影响总体有利,表现为作物适宜生育期延长,发育进程加快,全生育期缩短;积温增加且积温带北移东扩明显,主栽作物适宜种植区域扩大;作物品种由中晚熟替换早中熟;作物种植格局的变化为玉米、水稻、马铃薯等喜温作物种植面积扩大,春小麦种植面积减小。在水分为非限制因子的农区,作物气候生产潜力和产量为增加趋势。气候变化对农业影响的研究存在较大的不确定性,有必要针对农业气候变化及其对农业影响等开展系统性研究。     

Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture and Adaptive Strategies in China

China is the world’s most populous country and a major emitter of greenhouse gases. Consequently, China’s role in climate change has received a great deal of attention, whereas the impact of climate change on China has been largely ignored. Studies on the impacts of climate change on agriculture and adaptation strategies are increasingly becoming major areas of scientific concern. However, the clear warming that has been sounded in China in recent decades has not been matched with a clear assessment of the impact of climate change on China’s water resources and agriculture. In the present study, we review observations on climate change, hydrology, and agriculture in China and relate these observations to likely future changes. We also analyse the adaptive strategies in China’s agriculture.     

我国农业部门适应气候变化的措施、障碍与对策分析

中国是一个农业大国,农业生产直接关系到社会稳定和可持续发展。气候变化会对我国农业生产和粮食安全产生重大影响。本文通过文献综述和比较研究,系统分析了气候变化对农业部门可能造成的影响,分区域梳理了不同地区面临的主要气候风险和可以采取的适应措施,并识别了各项适应措施在实施过程中可能遇到的障碍,提出相关对策和政策建议。     

Climate change adaptation,greenhouse gas mitigation and economic profitability of conservation agriculture: Some examples from cereal systems of Indo-Gangetic Plains

Achieving sustainability of the cereal system in the Indo-Gangetic Plains(IGP)of India under progressive climate change and variability necessitates adoption of practices and technologies that increase food production,adaptation and mitigation in a sustainable way.This paper examines conservation agriculture(CA)from the perspective of:(i)increased yield and farm income,(ii)adaptation to heat and water stresses,and(iii)reduction in greenhouse gas(GHGs)emissions.The analyses and conclusions are based on the literature and evidences from a large number of on-station as well as farmers’field trials on CA in the cereal systems of IGP.Our analyses show that CA-based system substantially reduces the production cost(up to 23%)but produces equal or even higher than conventional system;thereby increasing economic profitability of production system.CA-based production systems also moderated the effect of high temperature(reduced canopy temperature by 1–4°C)and increased irrigation water productivity by 66–100%compared to traditional production systems thus well adapting to water and heat stress situations of IGP.Our continuous monitoring of soil flux of CO2,N2O and CH4 revealed that CA-based rice-wheat systems emit 10–15%less GHGs than conventional systems.This is the first time that CA and its components are synthesized and analyzed from food security-climate change nexus.From this holistic analysis,we suggest that wide-scale promotion of suitable CA practices by integrating into national agriculture development strategy is a way forward to address food security,climate change adaptation and mitigation challenges faced by present agriculture.     

Climate change and Chinese farmers: Perceptions and determinants of adaptive strategies

Farmers' perceptions, beliefs, adaptive strategies, and barriers regarding climate change are critical to promoting sustainable ecosystems and societal stability. This paper is based on an extensive survey of 1 500 farmers and their households in Henan Province in China during 2013–2014. Henan is the largest agricultural province in China with over 51 million farmers. The survey results showed that approximately 57% of the respondents perceived the direct impact of climate change during the past 10 years, with 70.3% believing that climate change posed a risk to their livelihood. Not surprisingly, most farmers reported that they have adopted new measures to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change. The main barriers hindering farmers' adopting adaptation measures were lack of funds and timely information. A multinomial logit model revealed that land ownership, knowledge of crop variety and the causes of climate change, as well as the belief of climate change, were all positively related to the likelihood of employing adaptive strategies. Moreover, the percentage of households engaging in agriculture activity, and years of engaging in farming were both negatively correlated with famer's likelihood of adopting adaptation strategies. More importantly, farmers with high incomes were less likely to adopt adaptive strategies and more willing to engage in other business activities. In conclusion, it is important to communicate climate change related information and government policies in rural areas, promote farmer associations and other educational outreach efforts to assist Chinese farmers to deal with climate change.     

Impacts of Climate Change on Water and Agricultural Production in Ten Large River Basins in China

The overall goal of this paper is to examine impacts of climate change on water supply and demand balance and their consequences on agricultural production in ten river basins in China. To realize this goal, China Water Simulation Model (CWSM) is used to analyze three alternative climate scenarios (A1B, A2 and B2). The results show that the impacts of climate change on water supply and demand balance differ largely among alternative scenarios. While significant impacts of climate change on water balance will occur under the A1B scenario, the impacts of climate change under the A2 and B2 scenarios will be marginal. Under the A1B scenario, the water shortage in the river basins located in the northern China will become more serious, particularly in Liaohe and Haihe river basins, but the other river basins in the southern China will improve their water balance situations. Despite larger impacts of climate change on water balance in the northern China, its impacts on total crops’ production will be moderate if farmers would be able to reallocate water among crops and adjust irrigated and rainfed land. The paper concludes with some policy implications.     

气候变化对中国农业生产的影响

未来气候变化下中国农业的稳定事关中国的长远持续发展,国内外气候变化研究界和农业气象研究界对气候变化对中国农业生产的影响的评估未有一致的认识。本文从农业科学角度讨论了气候变化对中国农业生产涉及的气象资源、土地资源、农业生物环境和生态系统的影响,并从作物生长和经济产量形成的角度讨论和分析了气候变化对中国种植业、养殖业不同产业行业的影响,气候变化中一些趋势性变化因不同作物和不同区域而异,例如温度和CO_2浓度变化对农业生产的影响因不同作物和不同时相而异,反之,极端性气候/天气事件对农业不同行业的生产都显得危害很大,而气候变化中区域性干旱将成为我国未来农业生产愈来愈严重的挑战。气候变化对中国农业生产的影响甚为复杂,一些气候变化因子的实际影响还存在很大不确定性。当前,定量评价气候变化对中国农业生产的影响还存在困难。     

非洲农业产量对气候变化响应与适应研究进展

非洲是全世界气候变化最脆弱的地区,而非洲农业受气候变化的影响最为敏感。气候变化已经并将继续对非洲农业和粮食安全产生较大的负面影响。提高气候变化对非洲作物产量影响的理解,揭示非洲农业对气候变化的响应规律,是及时、正确和有效适应气候变化的关键。本文综述了非洲农业对气候变化的响应与适应的研究进展,总结了作物机理模型、统计模型和经济模型目前研究这一问题的三大主要方法,系统阐述了非洲农业对过去和未来气候变化的响应程度及适应措施。未来气候变化对非洲农业的可能影响,不同的研究在不同时间尺度和空间尺度上,随着气候情景、研究方法和作物种类的不同,影响程度的结论差异性较大：作物机理模型方法显示的影响范围是-84%-62%;统计方法评价的影响范围则是-57%-30%;而用计量经济学方法研究显示的影响范围是-100%-168%。随着气候变化对非洲农业的影响得到公认,非洲农业对气候变化的适应问题得到了越来越多的研究。选育抗旱品种、发展保护性农业、完善灌溉设施、调整技术管理等适应措施将有可能对粮食安全带来更大的益处。另外,加强极端气候事件的监测和预警、增强气候预报、有效结合气候变化制定农业生产种植和管理措施、调整作物布局、发挥区域和国际组织（世界气象组织WMO、联合国粮农组织FAO等）在非洲应对气候变化影响方面的合作和对非洲的援助等措施均可提高非洲农业对气候变化的适应能力。本文进一步讨论了研究中存在的不确定性因素,包括数据、方法、结果的不确定性以及气候变化的间接影响、缺乏综合研究等问题,并指出了未来的发展趋势。本文有助于更好地理解非洲农业产量对气候变化的响应与适应,为解决非洲粮食安全问题和消除非洲贫困提供科技支撑,同时也为中国农业应对气候变化提供借鉴。     

Interpretation of Climate Change and Agricultural Adaptations by Local Household Farmers: a Case Study at Bin County,Northeast China

Although climate change impacts and agricultural adaptations have been studied extensively, how smallholder farmers perceive climate change and adapt their agricultural activities is poorly understood. Survey-based data (presents farmers' personal perceptions and adaptations to climate change) associated with external biophysical-socioeconomic data (presents real-world climate change) were used to develop a farmer-centered framework to explore climate change impacts and agricultural adaptations at a local level. A case study at Bin County (1980s–2010s), Northeast China, suggested that increased annual average temperature (0.6°C per decade) and decreased annual precipitation (46 mm per decade, both from meteorological datasets) were correctly perceived by 76 and 66.9%, respectively, of farmers from the survey, and that a longer growing season was confirmed by 70% of them. These reasonably correct perceptions enabled local farmers to make appropriate adaptations to cope with climate change: Longer season alternative varieties were found for maize and rice, which led to a significant yield increase for both crops. The longer season also affected crop choice: More farmers selected maize instead of soybean, as implicated from survey results by a large increase in the maize growing area. Comparing warming-related factors, we found that precipitation and agricultural disasters were the least likely causes for farmers' agricultural decisions. As a result, crop and variety selection, rather than disaster prevention and infrastructure improvement, was the most common ways for farmers to adapt to the notable warming trend in the study region.     

气候变化对我国农业发展的影响综述

全球气候变暖加大了我国农业发展的不确定性。本文基于我国气候变化的基本事实，分析了气候变化对我国农业发展的影响。结果表明，气候变化导致气温和降水变化，对我国作物生长、产量和农业潜在生产力等产生重要影响，对作物品质和产量带来直接影响，加剧了农业病虫害的发生和流行，进而加大了对农业经济的影响，同时还影响了我国农业种植制度。本研究为农业生产适应气候变化、确保高质量发展提供了参考。     

张家口季节变化特征及其对农业的影响

【目的】分析张家口地区季节变化特征及其对农业的影响,为当地农业结构布局、农业气象服务提供科学依据。【方法】基于1965—2014年张家口地区14个站点逐日气象资料,采用5d滑动平均、气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall和滑动t检验方法分析四季开始日与长度的变化特征,并结合相关分析等方法研究了季节变化对农作物的影响。【结果】近50年来,张家口地区春夏季开始日提前、秋冬季开始日推迟;坝上地区春季和坝下地区夏季日数呈现显著延长趋势,坝上和坝下地区冬季日数均呈显著缩短趋势,秋季长度变化趋势不明显;突变分析得到坝下地区夏季开始日在1980年和1992年发生突变,秋、冬开始日则分别在1982年、2011年发生突变,坝下地区春季开始日和坝上地区四季开始日均无有效突变。【结论】春季提前,秋季推后,使得农作物适宜生长期延长,大于等于10℃活动积温增加,同时增加了作物遭受倒春寒的频次和生产的不稳定性。     

Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change in China-A Case Study of Heilongjiang Province

Climate change is one of the most significant environment issues in the whole world today. And it is one of the most complex challenges of the humanities faced in the 21st century. Climate Change is impacted on our global; nobody can avoid the influence of climate change. The local adaptation strategies on climate change are very important to contribute the mitigation and poverty stricken situation, both in China and in the world. We chose a typical China’s province as a case to analyze the impact of climate change on the region (such as agricultural, natural ecosystems, water resources, as well as local people healthy condition), and how the local government and local residences face the impact of the climate change influence, and summarized several strategies on climate change of the area in a sustainable development way.     

我国农业的气候脆弱性研究及其评价

未来100年气候变暖的速度将会逐渐加快,势必会引起农业生态环境、生产布局和结构的变化,进而影响国家的粮食生产及粮食安全,因此开展气候变化背景下农业的气候脆弱性研究是气候变化脆弱性研究的重要课题和内容.在阐明农业气候脆弱性概念的基础上,综述了近年来国内外气候变化对农业的影响及其脆弱性研究评价的现状、方法,归纳和介绍了脆弱性研究和评价的4种主要方法,即统计分析法、指标体系法、模型模拟法和综合评估法,从研究方法、研究内容、研究工具、研究对象和研究过程等5方面进行了展望,指出了该领域研究的不足以及今后的发展方向.     

季节性变暖对中国农作物病虫害的影响

基于已有研究成果,采用农作物病虫害发生危害时空变化对季节性变暖时空变化响应事实检测的方法,系统分析和汇总季节性变暖对农作物病虫害影响的已有观测事实及其变化规律性,提出其影响的最新认知,并对今后的发展方向进行展望。已有影响事实检测表明：暖冬可使病虫进入越冬阶段推迟,延长病菌冬前侵染、冬中繁殖时间,降低害虫越冬死亡率,增加冬后菌源和虫源基数;病虫害发生期、迁入期、危害期提前;越冬北界北移、海拔上限高度升高;持续暖冬可使冬后虫源基数显著增加。与常年相比,全国性暖冬年冬中病菌繁殖侵染率可比冬前增加50%以上、冬中害虫存活率可达常年的1-2倍,冬后菌源、虫源基数增加1倍以上;持续暖冬冬后虫源基数可达常年的5倍以上;病害始见期、虫害发生期提前5 d以上,最早可分别提前20、30 d以上;稻飞虱越冬北界北移2-4个纬度,小麦条锈病越冬海拔上限高度升高100-300 m。暖春有利于病虫害危害期提前、扩展速度加快、发生程度加重。炎夏可使一些病菌越夏的海拔下限高度增加、面积和菌量减少,一些害虫发育历期延长、死亡率增加。暖秋有利于害虫滞留危害,发生代数可比常年增加1个代次。季节性变暖对农作物病虫害影响的时空变化及其规律性、发生与灾变的影响预估、风险评估及适应对策将是未来需要重点解决的关键问题。