慢加急性乙型肝炎肝衰竭患者死亡危险因素和预后评分模型的构建

目的 分析慢加急性乙型肝炎肝衰竭(HBV-ACLF)患者死亡的危险因素,建立预后评分预测模型.方法 2016年1月～2019年9月我院收治的126例HBV-ACLF患者,记录临床资料,将各指标纳入多因素Logistic回归分析,并建立预后评分预测模型,采用Hosmer-Lemeshow检验评估模型拟合度,采用ROC检验...     

四种评分模型对慢加急性乙型肝炎肝衰竭患者短期预后的评价

目的比较终末期肝病模型（MELD）、MELD-Na、慢性重型肝炎预后指数（PI）和肝移植标准（LTS）模型对慢加急性乙型肝炎肝衰竭患者短期预后的预测价值.方法在138例慢加急性乙型肝炎肝衰竭患者入院24小时内进行MELD、MELD-Na、PI和LTS评分,并随访3个月.应用受试者工作特征曲线（ROC）下面积（AUC）判断四个模型的预测能力.结果在观察期内与肝病有关的死亡患者72例,生存者66例.死亡组LTS、MELD-Na、MELD和PI平均值明显高于生存组（P〈0.01）,四个模型的AUC分别为0.860、0.801、0.749、和0.749,差异无统计学意义;四个模型预测的正确率分别为82.61%、76.81%、75.36%和73.91%,差异无统计学意义.结论4种模型对慢加急性乙型肝炎肝衰竭患者短期预后均有较好的预测价值.     

乙型肝炎慢加急性肝衰竭前期的临床特征及预后评分模型的建立

目的探讨乙型肝炎相关慢加急性肝衰竭(HBV-ACLF)前期患者的临床特征,并建立相应的预后评分模型。方法利用HBV-ACLF中国诊断标准研究(COSSH-ACLF)队列,回顾性分析725例乙型肝炎相关慢加急性肝功能障碍(HBV-ACHD)患者的临床特征,采用多因素COX回归分析90 d预后的相关独立危险因素并建立预后评分模型,并利用内部500例和外部390例HBV-ACHD患者进行验证。结果在725例HBV-ACHD患者中,男性为主(76.8%),96.8%患者有肝硬化基础,并发症以腹水(66.5%)多见,器官衰竭以凝血功能衰竭(4.1%)为主,90 d病死率为9.2%。多因素COX回归分析得出,总胆红素(TBil)、白细胞计数(WBC)、碱性磷酸酶(ALP)是HBV-ACHD患者90 d病死率的最佳预测指标,并建立评分模型COSSH-ACHDs=0.75×ln(WBC)+0.57×ln(TBil)-0.94×ln(ALP)+10,其受试者工作特征曲线下面积(auROC)显著高于终末期肝病模型(MELD)、MELD-Na、CTP及CLIF-C ADs(P<0.05),500例内部随机选择组和390例外部验证组均验证了类似结果。结论HBV-ACHD患者是一组以肝硬化失代偿为主、合并少量器官衰竭的人群,其90 d病死率为9.2%,COSSH-ACHDs具有更高的预测HBV-ACHD患者90 d预后的效能,为临床早期诊治提供循证医学依据。     

MELD-Na与CTP评分评估乙型肝炎慢加急性肝衰竭短期预后的对比研究

目的 探讨MELD-Na评分和Child-Turcorto-Pugh(CTP)评分对乙型肝炎慢加急性肝衰竭短期预后的临床价值. 方法 回顾性分析2010年1月至2012年12月住院的乙型肝炎慢加急性肝衰竭患者339例,研究MELD-Na评分与CTP评分对疾病短期预后的预测价值.计量资料采用t检验;计数资料采用x2检验;相关性分析采用Spearman秩相关分析;受试者工作特征曲线下面积比较采用正态Z检验. 结果 肝衰竭晚期MELD-Na评分显著高于中期及早期(P值均＜0.01),肝衰竭中期MELD-Na评分显著高于早期(P＜0.01),肝衰竭早、中、晚期CTP评分比较差异无统计学意义(P＞ 0.05);肝衰竭分期与MELD-Na评分的相关性(rs=0.485,P＜ 0.01)比CTP评分的相关性高(rs=0.306,P＜ 0.01);肝衰竭早、中、晚期患者短期病死率差异有统计学意义(P＜0.01);死亡组MELD-Na评分高于生存组(P＜0.01),死亡组与生存组相比CTP评分无统计学意义(P＞0.05);随着MELD-Na、CTP评分的增加,短期病死率逐渐升高(P＜0.01);MELD-Na和CTP评分的曲线下面积分别为0.813、0.823,预测能力差异无统计学意义(P＞0.05). 结论 相比CTP评分,MELD-Na评分在预测乙型肝炎慢加急性肝衰竭短期预后上略占优势;应用上可以MELD-Na为主,两评分模型互为补充,并密切结合临床实际.     

多种预后评分系统预测慢加急性肝衰竭并发真菌感染患者短期预后价值分析*

目的 探讨应用终末期肝病模型(MELD)、终末期肝病模型联合血清钠模型(MELD-Na⁺)、亚太肝脏研究协会慢加急性肝衰竭研究小组评分(AARC-ACLF)和慢性肝衰竭-序贯器官衰竭评分(CLIF-SOFA)等4种预后评分系统预测慢加急性肝衰竭(ACLF)并发真菌感染(IFI)患者短期预后的价值。方法 2018年1月～2020年10月我院收治的ACLF并发IFI患者60例,给予内科综合治疗,分别计算MELD、MELD-Na⁺、AARC-ACLF和CLIF-SOFA评分,应用受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)评估4种预后评分系统对患者死亡风险的预测效能。结果 在治疗观察12 w末,本组ACLF并发IFI患者病死率为68.3%;41例死亡组血清总胆红素、凝血酶原时间国际标准化比值、肌酐和乳酸水平分别为(362.9±79.7)μmol/L、(2.3±0.2)、(131.7±21.5)μmol/L和(1.6±0.4)mmol/L,均显著高于生存组【分别为(277.4±63.6)μmol/L、(1.7±0.1)、(102.9±15.3)μmol/L和(1.3±0.3)mmol/L,P＜0.05】,而血清白蛋白水平为(29.6±2.2)g/L,显著低于生存组【(31.8±2.7)g/L,P＜0.05】;死亡组并发肝性脑病发生率为43.9%,显著高于生存组的10.5%(P＜0.05);死亡组MELD评分、MELD-Na⁺评分、CLIF-SOFA评分和AARC-ACLF评分分别为(29.1±7.3)分、(30.4±7.5)分、(8.7±1.4)分和(9.2±1.1)分,均显著高于生存组【分别为(20.7±4.6)分、(21.9±5.2)分、(6.8±1.0)分和(7.3±0.8)分,P＜0.05】;ROC曲线分析发现,分别以MELD评分＞22.0分、MELD-Na⁺评分＞23.0分、AARC-ACLF评分＞8.0分和CLIF-SOFA评分＞8.0分为截断点,预测ACLF并发IFI患者12 w死亡风险高的AUC分别为0.687、0.716、0.893和0.884,提示CLIF-SOFA评分和AARC-ACLF评分预测效能显著优于MELD评分或MELD-Na⁺评分(P＜0.05)。结论 应用AARC-ACLF和CLIF-SOFA评分可预测ACLF并发IFI患者近期病死风险,具有一定的临床实用价值。     

慢加急性肝衰竭与慢性肝衰竭的临床特点和预后分析

[目的]探讨慢加急性肝衰竭(ACLF)与慢性肝衰竭(CLF)的临床特点和预后差异。[方法]75例慢性重型肝炎患者按肝衰竭诊疗指南分为ACLF组(27例)和CLF组(48例),比较2组一般情况、实验室指标、常见并发症、Child-Pugh评分及预后。[结果]CLF组年龄和病程均明显高于ACLF组(P<0.05或P<0.01),2组性别差异无统计学意义;ACLF组血清ALT、TBil、ALB及Na+水平高于CLF组,GLO、TBA低于CLF组(P<0.05或P<0.01);ACLF组血常规参数WBC、HGB和PLT高于CLF组,凝血指标PT低于CLF组(P<0.05或P<0.01),2组Fib差异无统计学意义;ACLF组腹水和肝性脑病发生率低于CLF组(P<0.05或P<0.01),2组腹腔感染、上消化道出血、肝肾综合征及电解质紊乱差异无显著性;ACLF组Child-Pugh评分(9.2±1.7)低于CLF组(12.0±2.5),其预后优于CLF组(P<0.05或P<0.01),2组住院时间差异无统计学意义。[结论]ACLF和CLF患者在年龄、病程、实验室指标、并发症腹水和肝性脑病发生率、Child-Pugh评分及预后均有差异。     

乙型肝炎病毒相关慢加急性肝衰竭抗病毒治疗的效果观察

目的了解抗病毒治疗对乙型肝炎(HBV)病毒相关慢加急性肝衰竭(ACLF)患者预后的影响。方法随机选取2009年6月至2013年6月收治的100例乙型肝炎病毒相关慢加急性肝衰竭患者,将患者分成观察组(50例)和对照组(50例)。对照组采用内科综合治疗的非抗病毒疗法,观察组在内科综合治疗的基础上采取抗病毒药物α干扰素治疗,两组患者分别在治疗前和治疗12周后进行肝功能、血清HBeAg定量检测。结果对照组存活42例,观察组存活48例,观察组存活率高于对照组,两组比较差异具有统计学意义(P0.05),两组患者治疗后ALT、AST、HBV DNA拷贝量、MELD评分均比治疗前下降,差异具有统计学意义。结论抗病毒治疗对乙型肝炎(HBV)病毒相关慢加急性肝衰竭的预后治疗效果显著,值得临床上的推崇。     

253例乙型肝炎病毒引起的慢加急性肝衰竭预后影响因素分析

目的探讨乙型肝炎病毒引起的慢加急性肝衰竭(ACLF)患者预后的影响因素。方法根据预后将253例ACLF患者分为治疗有效组(84例)和无效组(169例),统计患者的一般资料、常规化验指标、肝功能指标和乙肝病毒学指标,回归分析各项指标与预后的关系。结果有效组和无效组性别、ALT、AST、前白蛋白、总胆固醇、血糖、AFP、血红蛋白、血小板、HBV DNA计量和e抗原(HBeAg)阳性率在两组间差异均无统计学意义(均P>0.05);有效组和无效组年龄、总胆红素水平、白蛋白、肌酐、凝血酶原活动度、纤维蛋白原和住院时间差异有统计学意义(P均<0.05)。患者年龄越大,预后越差(χ2=9.426,P<0.05)。Logistic多元回归分析表明,总胆红素、PTA、纤维蛋白原、肌酐和住院时间是ACLF的独立影响因素(P均<0.05)。结论年龄、血清总胆红素、白蛋白、肌酐、凝血酶原活动度、纤维蛋白原和住院时间影响乙型肝炎病毒引起的慢加急性肝衰竭患者的预后,其中总胆红素、PTA、纤维蛋白原、肌酐、住院时间影响显著。     

乙型肝炎病毒相关慢加急性肝衰竭评分模型及检验参数对诊断及预后影响的研究进展

乙肝相关慢加急性肝衰竭(hepatitis B virus related acute-on-chronicliver failure,HBV-ACLF)是肝衰竭的常见类型,可发生在慢性乙型病毒性肝炎或肝硬化代偿期或失代偿期的基础上,其病情进展快速,常合并肝、脑、心、肾、凝血等多器官功能衰竭的临床综合征,病死率极高.美国胃肠病学会(American Gastroenterological Association, ACG)将其定义为具有潜在可逆性疾病,早期诊断,规范治疗,将极大影响其预后.近年来,一些新的评分模型及生物标志物的临床应用,有效提高了对HBV-ACLF的诊断及预后判断.本文对目前临床应用较广的评分模型及检验参数进行了梳理,进一步探讨其对HBV-ACLF的诊断和预后影响的价值.     

乙型肝炎慢加急性肝功能衰竭严重程度评估的预后评分系统的建立

目的 建立一种适用于乙型肝炎慢加急性肝功能衰竭严重程度评估的预后评分系统,并与终末期肝病模型(MELD)系统比较.方法 对存活组203例和死亡组196例乙型肝炎慢加急性肝功能衰竭患者进行MELD评分,同时选择凝血酶原活动度、血清肌酐、肝性脑病、并发感染、血清总胆红素、肝脏大小和胸腹水量等7个肝功能衰竭相关的临床指标,按严重程度以1～4分评分,并合计总分,再采用t检验及受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线下面积来比较这两种预后评分系统的异同.结果 采用本预后评分系统的存活组为(8.07±3.14)分,死亡组为(16.91士3.54)分,两组间差异有统计学意义(t=26.125,P<0.01),存活组81.32%的患者总分为3.91～12.23分,死亡组81.32%的患者总分为12.23～21.60分,两组分界点在12.23分.采用MELD评分系统存活组为(26.43士5.58)分,死亡组为(40.16±10.22)分,两组间差异有统计学意义(t=16.566,P<0.01),存活组61.02%的患者MELD评分为21.49～31.19分,死亡组61.02%的患者MELD评分为31.19～48.94分,两组分界点在31.19分.本预后评分系统和MELD评分系统的ROC曲线下面积分别为0.960(95%可信区间为0.944～0.977)和0.886(95%可信区间为0.852～0.920),两者95%可信区间无重叠,差异有统计学意义.结论 本预后评分系统适用于乙型肝炎慢加急性肝功能衰竭的严重程度评估,且敏感性近似于MELD预后评分系统.     

High levels of serum interleukin-6 increase mortality of hepatitis B virus-associated acute-on-chronic liver failure

BACKGROUND Patients with hepatitis B virus-associated acute-on-chronic liver failure(HBVACLF) present a complex and poor prognosis.Systemic inflammation plays an important role in its pathogenesis,and interleukin-6(IL-6) as a pro-inflammatory cytokine is related with severe liver impairment and also plays a role in promoting liver regeneration.Whether serum IL-6 influences HBV-ACLF prognosis has not been studied.AIM To determine the impact of serum IL-6 on outcome of patients with HBV-ACLF.METHODS We performed a retrospective study of 412 HBV-ACLF patients.The findings were analyzed with regard to mortality and the serum IL-6 level at baseline,as well as dynamic changes of serum IL-6 within 4 wk.RESULTS The serum IL-6 level was associated with mortality.Within 4 wk,deceased patients had significantly higher levels of IL-6 at baseline than surviving patients [17.9(7.3-57.6) vs 10.4(4.7-22.3),P = 0.011].Patients with high IL-6 levels( 11.8 pg/m L) had a higher mortality within 4 wk than those with low IL-6 levels(≤ 11.8 pg/m L)(24.2% vs 13.2%,P = 0.004).The odds ratios calculated using univariate and multivariate logistic regression were 2.10(95% confidence interval [CI]:1.26-3.51,P = 0.005) and 2.11(95%CI:1.15-3.90,P = 0.017),respectively.The mortality between weeks 5 and 8 in patients with high IL-6 levels at 4 wk was 15.0%,which was significantly higher than the 6.6% mortality rate in patients with low IL-6 levels at 4 wk(hazard ratio = 2.39,95%CI:1.05-5.41,P = 0.037).The mortality was 5.0% in patients with high IL-6 levels at baseline and low IL-6 levels at 4 wk,7.5% in patients with low IL-6 levels both at baseline and at 4 wk,11.5% in patients with low IL-6 levels at baseline and high IL-6 levels at 4 wk,and 16.7% in patients with high IL-6 levels both at baseline and at 4 wk.The increasing trend of the mortality rate with the dynamic changes of IL-6 was significant(P for trend = 0.023).CONCLUSION A high level of serum IL-6 is an independent risk factor for mortality in patients with HBV-ACLF.Furthermore,a sustained high level or dynamic elevated level of serum IL-6 indicates a higher mortality.     

Nomogram prediction of individual prognosis of patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure

Background

The current definitions and etiologies of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) are clearly very different between East and West.

Scoring systems predict the prognosis of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure: an evidence-based review

Acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure is a devastating condition that is associated with mortality rates of over 50% and is consequent to acute exacerbation of chronic hepatitis B in patients with previously diagnosed or undiagnosed chronic liver disease. Liver transplantation is the definitive treatment to lower mortality rate, but there is a great imbalance between donation and potential recipients. An early and accurate prognostic system based on the integration of laboratory indicators, clinical events and some mathematic logistic equations is needed to optimize treatment for patients. As parts of the scoring systems, the MELD was the most common and the donor-MELD was the most innovative for patients on the waiting list for liver transplantation. This review aims to highlight the various features and prognostic capabilities of these scoring systems.     

Assessment of scoring systems for acute-on-chronic liver failure at predicting short-term mortality in patients with alcoholic hepatitis

AIMTo assess the performance of proposed scores specific for acute-on-chronic liver failure in predicting short-term mortality among patients with alcoholic hepatitis.METHODSWe retrospectively collected data from 264 patients with clinically diagnosed alcoholic hepatitis from January to December 2013 at 21 academic hospitals in Korea. The performance for predicting short-term mortality was calculated for Chronic Liver Failure-Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (CLIF-SOFA), CLIF Consortium Organ Failure score (CLIF-C OFs), Maddrey’s discriminant function (DF), age, bilirubin, international normalized ratio and creatinine score (ABIC), Glasgow Alcoholic Hepatitis Score (GAHS), model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), and MELD-Na.RESULTSOf 264 patients, 32 (12%) patients died within 28 d. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve of CLIF-SOFA, CLIF-C OFs, DF, ABIC, GAHS, MELD, and MELD-Na was 0.86 (0.81-0.90), 0.89 (0.84-0.92), 0.79 (0.74-0.84), 0.78 (0.72-0.83), 0.81 (0.76-0.86), 0.83 (0.78-0.88), and 0.83 (0.78-0.88), respectively, for 28-d mortality. The performance of CLIF-SOFA had no statistically significant differences for 28-d mortality. The performance of CLIF-C OFs was superior to that of DF, ABIC, and GAHS, while comparable to that of MELD and MELD-Na in predicting 28-d mortality. A CLIF-SOFA score of 8 had 78.1% sensitivity and 79.7% specificity, and CLIF-C OFs of 10 had 68.8% sensitivity and 91.4% specificity for predicting 28-d mortality.CONCLUSIONCLIF-SOFA and CLIF-C OF scores performed well, with comparable predictive ability for short-term mortality compared to the commonly used scoring systems in patients with alcoholic hepatitis.     

四种基于MELD的评分系统对慢加急性乙型肝炎肝衰竭患者短期生存的预测价值分析*

目的 比较终末期肝病模型（MELD）及其衍生模型iMELD、MELD-Na和MESO对乙型肝炎相关性慢加急性肝衰竭（HBV-ACLF）患者12周生存预后的评估价值。方法 按照现行中国肝衰竭诊治指南的诊断标准纳入67例HBV-ACLF患者,收集患者诊断成立时的相关实验室检测指标,分别计算MELD、iMELD、MELD-Na和MESO模型评分,应用MedCalc 15.8软件分析比较受试者工作特征曲线（ROC）,确定MELD及其衍生评分系统对ACLF患者12周死亡风险预测的最佳截断点和约登指数,以评价不同评分预测ACLF患者短期生存的效能。结果 在治疗12周内,在67例HBV-ACLF患者中,死亡45例（67.2%）;入组时,生存组MELD、iMELD、MELD-Na和MESO评分分别为（22.12±3.24）、（41.59±5.30）、（22.55±4.07）和（1.64±0.24）,显著低于死亡组【分别为（30.47±9.01）、（51.88±11.09）、（32.35±11.58）和（2.28±0.70）,P<0.01】;MELD、iMELD、MELD-Na和MESO模型预测患者12周生存的ROC曲线下面积分别为0.814、0.802、0.806和0.817,其最佳截断点分别为22.70、47.76、22.16和1.69,约登指数分别为0.5040、0.5535、0.4808和0.4818,提示四种模型的预测效能比较,均无显著性差异 （P>0.05）。结论 MELD、iMELD、MELD-Na和MESO四种评分系统对于HBV-ACLF患者12周生存情况均具有良好的预测能力,可根据实际情况,选择应用。     

肝衰竭合并真菌感染患者预后及评分系统分析

收集2008年1月至2017年12月解放军总医院第五医学中心收治的372例肝衰竭合并真菌感染患者临床资料,探讨肝衰竭合并真菌感染患者预后的影响因素,分析CLIF-C ACLF、CLIF-SOFA、SOFA、MELD、MELD-NA及CTP评分系统对预测患者短期病死率的价值。结果显示影响肝衰竭合并真菌感染患者90 d预后的独立危险因素有年龄、抗真菌疗效、肝性脑病(HE)、总胆红素(TBil)及国际标准化比值(INR);6种预后评分系统中CLIF-C ACLF评分对患者短期病死率预测价值最高。     

Role of nutritional status and nutritional support in outcome of hepatitis B virus-associated acute-on-chronic liver failure

BACKGROUND Hepatitis B virus-associated acute-on-chronic liver failure(HBV-ACLF) is an important type of liver failure in Asia. There is a direct relationship between HBVACLF and gastrointestinal barrier function. However, the nutritional status of HBV-ACLF patients has been poorly studied.AIM To investigate the nutritional risk and nutritional status of HBV-ACLF patients and evaluated the impact of nutritional support on the gastrointestinal barrier and 28-d mortality.METHODS Nutritional risk screening assessment and gastrointestinal barrier biomarkers of patients with HBV-ACLF(n = 234) and patients in the compensatory period of liver cirrhosis(the control group)(n = 234) were compared during the period between 2016 and 2018. Changes were analyzed after nutritional support in HBVACLF patients. Valuable biomarkers have been explored to predict 28-d death. The 28-d survival between HBV-ACLF patients with nutritional support(n = 234) or no nutritional support(2014-2016)(n = 207) was compared.RESULTS The nutritional risk of the HBV-ACLF patients was significantly higher than that of the control group. The nutritional intake of the patients with HBV-ACLF was lower than that of the control group. The decrease in skeletal muscle and fat content and the deficiency of fat intake were more obvious(P 0.001). The coccus-bacillus ratio, secretory immunoglobulin A, and serum D-lactate were significantly increased in HBV-ACLF patients. The survival group had a lower nutritional risk, lower D-lactate, and cytokine levels(endotoxin, tumor necrosis factor alpha, interleukin-10, and interleukin-1). Interleukin-10 may be a potential predictor of death in HBV-ACLF patients. The 28-d survival of the nutritional support group was better than that of the non-nutritional support group(P = 0.016).CONCLUSION Patients with HBV-ACLF have insufficient nutritional intake and high nutritional risk, and their intestinal barrier function is impaired. Individualized and dynamic nutritional support is associated with a better prognosis of 28-d mortality in HBVACLF patients.     

拉米夫定治疗慢性乙型肝炎慢加急性肝衰竭患者的疗效观察

目的 观察拉米夫定治疗慢性乙型肝炎慢加急性肝衰竭(HBV-ACLF)早、中期患者48周的临床疗效及和病毒学应答的关系.方法 回顾性分析了73例使用拉米夫定治疗的HBV-ACLF早、中期患者,观察0、4、8、24、48周的凝血酶原时间活动度、ALT、AST、总胆红素、白蛋白、血尿素氮、肌酐、HBV DNA定量、病毒学应答及生存率.使用SPSS17.0软件分析,组间两均数比较用成组t检验,两率间比较用x2检验.结果 (1)在4、8、24、48周时完全病毒学应答率分别为57.5％ (42/73)、71.0％ (44/62)、83.1％ (49/59)、86.5％ (45/52);部分病毒学应答率分别为30.1％ (22/73)、25.8％ (16/62)、16.9％ (10/59)、13.5％ (7/52).(2) 48周时总的生存率为71.2％(52/73);完全病毒学应答患者、部分病毒学应答患者生存率分别为61.6％ (45/73)、9.6％ (7/73);完全病毒学应答患者的预后优于部分病毒学应答患者,两组比较,x2=6.829,P＜0.01,差异有统计学意义.(3)肝功能、MELD评分,HBV DNA定量在第8、24、48周较基线水平有明显改善.结论 拉米夫定治疗HBV-ACLF早、中期患者具有良好的临床疗效,预后与病毒学应答有关.