Rainfall thresholds for the triggering of landslides considering previous soil moisture conditions (Asturias,NW Spain)

Given its geological and climatic conditions and its rugged orography, Asturias is one of the most landslide prone areas in the North of Spain. Most of the landslides occur during intense rainfall episodes. Thus, precipitation is considered the main triggering factor in the study area, reaching average annual values of 960 mm. Two main precipitation patterns are frequent: (i) long-lasting periods of moderate rainfall during autumn and winter and (ii) heavy short rainfall episodes during spring and early summer. In the present work, soil moisture conditions in the locations of 84 landslides are analysed during two rainfall episodes, which represent the most common precipitation patterns: October–November 2008 and June 2010. Empirical data allowed the definition of available water capacity percentages of 99–100% as critical soil moisture conditions for the landslide triggering. Intensity-duration rainfall thresholds were calculated for each episode, considering the periods with sustained high soil moisture levels before the occurrence of each analysed landslide event. For this purpose, data from daily water balance models and weather stations were used. An inverse relationship between the duration of the precipitation and its intensity, consistent with published intensity-duration thresholds, was observed, showing relevant seasonal differences.     

Rainfall thresholds for rainfall-induced landslides in Slovenia

In Slovenia, rainfall-induced landslides lead to considerable damages, even causing human losses. In order to reduce the impact of this kind of landslide, several researchers analyzed rainfall-induced landslides in this country, but to date, no rainfall thresholds have been developed for a landslide warning system at national scale. In this paper, the definition of rainfall thresholds for rainfall-induced landslides in Slovenia is presented. The thresholds have been calculated by collecting approximately 900 landslide data and the relative rainfall amounts, which have been collected from 41 rain gauges. To define the thresholds, an existing procedure characterized by a high degree of objectiveness has been used. This approach is based on a software that was developed for a test site with very different characteristics (Tuscany, central Italy). At first, a single national threshold has been defined; subsequently, the country was divided into four zones, on the basis of the major river basins. The effectiveness of the thresholds has been verified by the use of several statistical parameters and it resulted in quite good performances, even if with some uncertainties, probably due to the quality of the available data. Besides the setting of a threshold system, usable for civil protection purposes at national scale, an additional outcome of this work was the possibility of applying, with good results, a methodology defined for another region, therefore testing its degree of exportability in different settings.     

Updating EWS rainfall thresholds for the triggering of landslides

In this paper, the updating of rainfall thresholds for landslide early warning systems (EWSs) is presented. Rainfall thresholds are widely used in regional-scale landslide EWSs, but the efficiency of those systems can decrease during the time, so a periodically updating should be required to keep their functionality. The updating of 12 of the 25 thresholds used in the EWS of Tuscany region (central Italy) is presented, and a comparison between performances of new and previous thresholds has been made to highlight the need of their periodical update. The updating has been carried out by collecting ca. 1200 new landslide reports (from 2010 to March 2013) and their respective rainfall data, collected by 332 rain gauges. The comparison has been made by the use of several statistical indexes and showed a marked increasing in the performances of the new thresholds with respect to previous ones.     

山洪灾害临界雨量研究综述

临界雨量是一个关键的山洪灾害预警指标。按其技术原理将临界雨量推求方法划分为数据驱动的统计归纳法和基于灾变物理机制的水文水力学法分别进行评述,并介绍了临界雨量指标的两个拓展:动态临界雨量和暴雨临界曲线,综述了临界雨量不确定性分析的研究进展。通过综述发现:中国目前主要应用的是较简单的统计归纳法;临界雨量推求主要考虑前期降雨量（前期土壤饱和度）和时段累积降雨量两个因素的影响或仅后者一个;临界雨量指标难以反映山洪灾害的规模;考虑临界雨量不确定性有助于提高预警质量,但如何充分考虑其影响仍然是一个挑战。     

浙江地区引发滑坡的降雨强度-历时关系

由于独特的地理位置,复杂的地质、地形和气候背景,浙江成为中国降雨型滑坡（土体和岩体滑动,也包括泥石流和崩塌等）最频发的地区之一。为评价浙江地区的滑坡灾害,本文对该地区1990年至2003年雨量站记录的降雨数据进行了详细分析,确定了引发土体滑坡-泥石流的降雨强度―历时下限。     

汶川震区暴雨泥石流发生的降雨阈值

搜集了汶川震区暴雨泥石流发生的降雨数据,采用詹氏法和修正法两种雨场分割法对其进行处理,研究了降雨参数（降雨强度、累积雨量和降雨历时）与泥石流发生之间的关系,建立了汶川震区暴雨泥石流发生的降雨阈值模型。结果表明:采用詹氏法和修正法这两种雨场分割方法所获得的降雨参数之间存在差异。两者的累积雨量差异不大,但后者的平均雨强要小于前者,其原因在于修正法改善了詹氏法估计降雨时间过短的缺点,延长了降雨历时。通过分析平均雨强~历时、累积雨量~历时、标准化平均雨强~历时和标准化累积雨量~历时之间的关系,采用单线法建立了汶川震区暴雨泥石流发生的降雨阈值。研究成果在四川省绵竹市清平乡的泥石流灾害事件中进行了应用与验证,结果表明该方法具有合理性和可行性。     

Rainfall thresholds for landslide early warning system in Nakhon Si Thammarat

Transient seepage in unsaturated soil slope is one of the significant triggering factors in rainfall-induced landslides. Rainfall infiltration leads to the decrease in stabilizing effect because of increased positive pore-water pressures. SEEP/W and SLOPE/W used in this study have been widely employed to describe frameworks for understanding transient seepage in soil slope, and to perform slope stability analyses, respectively. The study area is in Sichon District in Nakhon Si Thammarat Province, southern Thailand. A landslide there was investigated by modeling the process of rainfall infiltration under positive and negative pore-water pressures and their effects on slope stability. GIS (Geographic Information System) and geotechnical laboratory results were used as input parameters. The van Genuchten’s soil water characteristic curve and unsaturated permeability function were used to estimate surface infiltration rates. An average rainfall was derived from 30-year monthly rainfall data between 1981 and 2011 in this area reported by the Thailand Royal Irrigation Department. For transient condition, finite element analysis in SEEP/W was employed to model fluctuations in pore-water pressure during a rainfall, using the computed water infiltration rates as surface boundary conditions. SLOPE/W employing Bishop simplified method was then carried out to compute their factors of safety, and antecedent precipitation indices (API) calculated. Heterogeneous slope at the site became unstable at an average critical API (API_cr) of 380 mm, agreeing well with the actual value of 388 mm.     

Rainfall infiltration: infinite slope model for landslides triggering by rainstorm

Shallow slope failure due to heavy rainfall during rainstorm and typhoon is common in mountain areas. Among the models used for analyzing the slope stability, the rainwater infiltration model integrated with slope stability model can be an effective way to evaluate the stability of slopes during rainstorm. This paper will propose an integrated Green–Ampt infiltration model and infinite slope stability model for the analysis of shallow type slope failure. To verify the suitability of the proposed model, seven landslide cases occurred in Italy and Hong Kong are adopted in this paper. The results indicate that the proposed model can be used to distinguish failed and not-yet failed slopes. In addition, the proposed model can be used as the first approximation for estimating the occurrence time of a rainfall-induced shallow landslide and its depth of sliding.     

Estimation of rainfall thresholds triggering shallow landslides for an operational warning system implementation

The Piemonte regional warning system service, managed by the Environmental Protection Agency of Piemonte (“ARPA Piemonte” as official Italian acronym), is based on an advanced meteo-hydrological automatic monitoring system, and it is integrated with forecasting activities of severe weather-related natural hazards. At present, a meteo-hydrological chain is operated to provide flood forecasting on the main river pattern. The development of a forecasting tool for shallow landslides triggered by heavy rainfall is presented. Due to the difficulties in modelling shallow landslides triggering in a large and complex area like the Piemonte region, an empirical model is developed on the basis of the correlation between rainfall and previous landslides in historical documents. The research focuses on establishing rainfall thresholds for landslides triggering, differentiating the critical rainfall values through a geological characterisation of the different territories. The period from 1990 to 2002 is considered. A total number of 160 landslides with hourly information and time of triggering are used to calibrate the system. As a first outcome, two different zones have been identified: (1) zones in alpine environments, principally characterised by a bedrock composed of metamorphic rocks, igneous rocks, dolostones or limestones that require high values of critical rainfall and (2) zones in hilly environments, principally characterised by sedimentary bedrock that require low values of critical rainfall. Verification has been performed on a total number of 429 landslides with known date of occurrence. The results show a good agreement with the model with no missed alarms and a very low number of false alarms, thus suggesting an effective operational implementation.     

Rainfall thresholds for the forecasting of landslide occurrence at regional scale

This paper concerns a regional scale warning system for landslides that relies on a decisional algorithm based on the comparison between rainfall recordings and statistically defined thresholds. The latter were based on the total amount of rainfall, which was cumulated considering different time intervals: 1-, 2- and 3-day cumulates took into account the critical rainfall influencing shallow movements, whilst a variable time interval cumulate (up to 240 days) was used to consider the triggering of deep-seated landslides in low permeability terrains. A prototypal version of the model was initially set up to define statistical thresholds. Then, thresholds were calibrated using a database of past georegistered and dated landslides. A validation procedure showed that the calibration highly improves the results and therefore the model was integrated in the regional warning system of Emilia Romagna (Italy) for civil protection purposes. The proposed methodology could be easily implemented in other similar regions and countries where a sufficiently organised meteorological network is present.     

Rainfall flood hazard at nuclear power plants in India

Flood hazard evaluation is an important input for Nuclear Power Plants external events safety studies. In the present study, flood hazard at various nuclear sites in India due to rainfall has been evaluated. Hazard estimation is a statistical procedure by which rainfall intensity versus occurrence frequency is estimated from historical records of rainfall data and extrapolated with asymptotic extreme value distribution. Rainfall data needed for flood hazard assessment are daily annual maximum rainfall (24?h data). The observed data points have been fitted using Gumbel, power law and exponential distribution, and return period has been estimated. To study the stationarity of rainfall data, a moving window estimate of the parameters has been performed. The rainfall pattern is stationary in both coastal and inland regions over the period of observation. The coastal regions show intense rainfall and higher variability than inland regions. Based on the plant layout, catchment area and drainage capacity, the prototype fast breeder reactor (PFBR) site is unlikely to be flooded.     

Rainfall thresholds for debris flow initiation in the Wenchuan earthquake-stricken area,southwestern China

The Wenchuan earthquake-stricken area is frequently hit by heavy rainfall, which often triggers sediment-related disasters, such as shallow landslides, debris flows, and related natural events, sometimes causing tremendous damage to lives, property, infrastructure, and environment. The assessment of the rainfall thresholds for debris flow occurrence is very important in order to improve forecasting and for risk management. In the context of the Wenchuan earthquake-stricken area, however, the rainfall thresholds for triggering debris flows are not well understood. With the aim of defining the critical rainfall thresholds for this area, a detailed analysis of the main rainstorm events was carried out. This paper presents 11 rainfall events that induced debris flows which occurred between 2008 and 2012 after the Wenchuan earthquake. The rainfall thresholds were defined in terms of mean rainfall intensity I, rainfall duration D, and normalized using the mean annual precipitation (MAP). An ID threshold and a normalized I _MAP D threshold graph could be set up for the Wenchuan earthquake-stricken area which forms the lower boundary of the domain with debris flow-triggering rainfall events. The rainfall threshold curves obtained for the study area were compared with the local, regional, and global curves proposed by various authors. The results suggest that debris flow initiation in the study area almost requires a higher amount of rainfall and greater intensity than elsewhere. The comparison of rainfall intensity prior to and after the earthquake clearly indicates that the critical rainfall intensity necessary to trigger debris flows decreased after the earthquake. Rainfall thresholds presented in this paper are generalized, so that they can be used in debris flow warning systems in areas with the same geology as the Wenchuan earthquake-stricken area.     

Rainfall thresholds for the initiation of landslide at Lanta Khola in north Sikkim,India

In the Indian Himalaya, a 15 km stretch of the North Sikkim Highway that is exceptionally susceptible to landsliding is characterized by fine-grained, low permeability debris material. Lanta Khola is one of the major debris slides in this stretch and is active every year during the monsoons. Although the relationship between rainfall and landsliding in the area is obvious, there is no previous study of precipitation thresholds for landslide initiation. Review of available rainfall and landslide activity data for the area between 1998 and 2006 suggests that sliding cannot be modeled by typical exponential relationships between cumulative rainfall (E) and rainfall duration (D). An alternative rainfall threshold has been proposed that predicts sliding if normalized cumulative rainfall for more than 15 days exceeds 250 mm. It is suggested that when this cumulative rainfall threshold is exceeded, the debris zone in the affected stretch becomes saturated and fails, causing landsliding.     

Rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence: systematic underestimation using coarse temporal resolution data

Natural Hazards - Rainfall thresholds for landslides occurrence derived in real applications tend to be lower than the ones one would obtain using exact data. This letter shows how the use of...     

Analysis of a Long Record of Annual Maximum Rainfall in Athens,Greece, and Design Rainfall Inferences

An annual series of maximum dailyrainfall extending through 1860–1995, i.e., 136 years,was extracted from the archives of a meteorologicalstation in Athens. This is the longest rainfall recordavailable in Greece and its analysis is required forthe prediction of intense rainfall in Athens, wherecurrently major flood protection works are under way.Moreover, the statistical analysis of this long recordcan be useful for investigating more generalisedissues regarding the adequacy of extreme valuedistributions for extreme rainfall analysis and theeffect of sample size on design rainfall inferences.Statistical exploration and tests based on this longrecord indicate no statistically significant climaticchanges in extreme rainfall during the last 136 years.Furthermore, statistical analysis shows that theconventionally employed Extreme Value Type I (EV1 orGumbel) distribution is inappropriate for the examinedrecord (especially in its upper tail), whereas thisdistribution would seem as an appropriate model iffewer years of measurements were available (i.e., partof this sample were used). On the contrary, theGeneral Extreme Value (GEV) distribution appears to besuitable for the examined series and its predictionsfor large return periods agree with the probablemaximum precipitation estimated by the statistical(Hershfield's) method, when the latter is consideredfrom a probabilistic point of view. Thus, the resultsof the analysis of this record agree with a recently(and internationally) expressed scepticism about theEV1 distribution which tends to underestimate thelargest extreme rainfall amounts. It is demonstratedthat the underestimation is quite substantial (e.g.,1 : 2) for large return periods and this fact must beconsidered as a warning against the widespread use ofthe EV1 distribution for rainfall extremes.     

Hydrological regimes in different slope environments and implications on rainfall thresholds triggering shallow landslides

Natural Hazards - Assessing hazard of rainfall-induced shallow landslides represents a challenge for the risk management of urbanized areas for which the setting up of early warning systems, based...     

Rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for landslide prediction in South Korea by considering the effects of antecedent rainfall

This study was conducted to determine the rainfall intensity-duration thresholds (ID curves) for landslide prediction by considering the effects of antecedent rainfall. Data for the time and location of landslides that occurred in South Korea from 1999 to 2016 were collected. Overall, 231 landslide histories from 1999 to 2013 were used to determine the rainfall thresholds, and 12 landslide histories from 2014 to 2016 were used to verify the proposed rainfall thresholds. Probabilistic ID curves were proposed to reflect the influence of other factors except rainfall, and ID curves for various inter-event time definitions (IETDs) were suggested to analyze the variation in the ID curves with the effects of antecedent rainfall. The results suggest that the IETD indicates the duration for which the antecedent rainfall affects the ground condition. It was also found that the ID curve for 12 h of the IETD was the most reliable of the verification procedures using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plot and threat score (TS).