路面使用性能的马尔可夫预测研究

在总结现有路面使用性能预测方法的基础上,提出一种简化转移矩阵的马尔可夫过程链预测模型方法,并对其模型形式进行了研究,结合实例分析表明：预测模型合理,能够有效地提高预测精度。     

模糊马尔可夫链状模型在矿区降水灾害预测中的应用

基于模糊马尔可夫链状预测的方法和原理 ,以铜绿山矿区北露天旱涝等级的预测作为实例 ,介绍了使用这种模型的方法与步骤 ,提出了具有模糊状态的马尔可夫链的概率计算公式。通过实例预测结果表明 ,利用模糊马尔可夫链模型预测灾变是可行的     

火灾事故的灰色马尔柯夫模型预测

灰色马尔可夫模型是将灰色系统理论和马尔可夫链理论相结合建立的预测模型,它不仅充分发挥了灰色预测模型和马尔可夫预测模型的优点,而且有效地解决了灰色预测模型对于随机波动性较大的数列预测精度低的问题.实例计算证明:火灾事故灰色马尔可夫预测模型预测精度高于GM(1,1)模型预测精度,模型可以用于火灾事故预测.     

无偏灰色模糊马尔可夫链在设备衰退预测中的应用

针对传统灰色马尔可夫模型在固有灰色偏差和抗干扰性方面的不足,提出一种基于无偏灰色模糊马尔可夫链的设备衰退趋势预测模型。首先,引入无偏灰色理论,建立无偏灰色模型,预测设备健康状态的总体趋势;然后,根据此趋势,采用模糊集合理论进行模糊状态划分,从分类方法上改进传统灰色马尔科夫模型,同时克服马尔可夫状态矩阵运算量大的缺点;最后,进行模糊马尔可夫残差修正,确定设备健康状态组合预测值。与传统灰色马尔可夫模型相比,该模型可有效提高预测精度。以屏蔽泵的健康状况数据为样本进行设备衰退趋势预测,结果表明:该模型对第13、14和15个周期的设备健康状态的预测,残差偏移率分别为0.24%、0.10%和-0.05%,对应传统灰色马尔科夫模型的残差偏移率0.46%、0.11%和0.08%,预测精度更高,能够有效实现设备衰退趋势的精确预测。     

基于马尔科夫链模型的交通方式划分研究——以北京市常规公交与轨道交通为例

马尔科夫链模型法是一种适用于随机过程的科学有效的动态预测方法,已广泛应用于经济、生命科学、计算机、心理、社会等科学领域中.马尔科夫链模型在市场占有率预测中的应用已经十分成熟.将交通方式的分担率视作不同交通方式的市场占有率,应用马尔科夫链模型对北京市常规公交和轨道交通客流分担率进行预测,通过建立二次规划模型对转移概率矩阵求解,预测结果误差较低,证明该方法可用于交通方式分担率预测.     

基于灰色马尔可夫链的武汉城市建设投资规模预测

为弥补灰色GM（1,1）模型不适合预测随机波动性较大的数据序列等缺点,辅以无后效性的马尔可夫链与之结合,建立灰色马尔可夫链预测模型。针对武汉市城市建设投资规模预测问题,通过建立灰色马尔可夫链模型对其进行分析,得出武汉市城市建设预测投资数据,经过与实际投资数据相比较以及模型精度检验,证实所建立的灰色马尔可夫链模型的预测精度很高。运用本模型来预测武汉市城市建设投资规模是可行的、其预测结果是可信的,也为武汉市城市建设的合理投资提供一定的参考依据     

基于灰色-马尔可夫模型的厦门市房价预测

针对房地产营销过程中,价格变化随机性的特点,将灰色GM(1,1)预测与马尔可夫预测有机结合,用马尔可夫模型修正灰色预测的结果,构成灰色-马尔可夫预测模型,并运用该模型预测2011年厦门市商品住宅均价。结果表明,运用灰色-马尔可夫链模型对房价进行预测是可行的。     

模糊权马尔可夫模型在桥梁状况预测中的应用

以马尔可夫链方法为基础,针对桥梁技术状况值为相依随机变量的特点,采取以规范化的各阶自相关系数为权重,用加权马尔可夫链来预测未来技术状况,在此基础上,根据模糊集理论中的级别特征值,计算出具体的技术状况值,最后,以一实桥前20年的检测资料为实例,对该方法进行了具体的应用,并与灰色模型及灰色马尔可夫链模型等的计算结果进行对比分析,证实了该模型的预测精度。     

盐岩储气库寿命预测的马尔可夫模型研究

盐岩地下储气库因其良好的使用功能,愈发被世界各国所采用,因此,对盐岩储气库运营期的风险分析与寿命预测具有重要的理论意义和工程应用价值。客观存在的诸多不确定性因素导致很难采用确定性方法对其进行研究。马尔可夫概率预测模型能够以概率的形式反映出系统的不确定性,因而计算结果更为客观、可靠。将马尔可夫理论引入到盐岩地下储气库风险分析与寿命预测中,以国内某盐岩地下储气库为例,建立其马尔可夫模型,基于随机力学的方法,通过数值模拟计算及可靠性分析得出了储气库运行状态转移概率矩阵;利用转移概率矩阵,并根据马尔可夫模型中的吸收状态和平均吸收时间的概念对储气库进行寿命预测,取得了较好的预测效果。     

基于MCFM模型的集贸市场火灾致灾因素分析

为降低大型集贸市场的火灾风险,探究大型集贸市场火灾致灾因素,运用解释结构模型分析各因素间的内在联系。结合交叉影响分析法和马尔可夫链预测构建定量分析模型,获得火灾致灾因素的稳态概率矩阵。研究结果表明：马尔可夫修正概率更加准确,该模型可明确大型集贸市场火灾致灾因素排查和管控的重点。     

浅析企业的税务筹划

介绍了企业在税务筹划中所应遵循的基本原则、基本方法，对企业在进行投资、筹资、运营等经济活动中减少税收成本、实现收益最大化具有指导性意义。     

Contractor selection using the analytic network process

Contractor selection is one of the main activities of clients. Without a proper and accurate method for selecting the most appropriate contractor, the performance of the project will be affected. The multi‐criteria decision‐making (MCDM) is suggested to be a viable method for contractor selection. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) has been used as a tool for MCDM. However, AHP can only be employed in hierarchical decision models. For complicated decision problems, the analytic network process (ANP) is highly recommended since ANP allows interdependent influences specified in the model. An example is demonstrated to illustrate how this method is conducted, including the formation of supermatrix and the limit matrix.     

浅论建筑施工企业投标策略

从决定是否投标和确定报价方案及报价技巧两方面介绍了建筑施工企业的投标策略,具体阐述了如何确定是否投标和投标报价应遵循的基本准则以及不同报价策略的适用范围,以期指导施工企业合理选择报价技巧和方法,使经济效益最大化。     

Modelling a whole building stock: domestic,non-domestic and mixed use

ABSTRACT

Work on energy use in buildings – in university research, professional practice and government – has tended to draw a broad distinction between ‘the domestic stock’ and ‘the non-domestic stock’. A further tendency has been to focus attention on types of non-domestic buildings devoted to single uses (e.g. offices, shops or hospitals). This paper reports an empirical research programme in which the complete building stock in large areas of England and Wales is comprehensively represented in great detail, using a new method and model called 3DStock. The model breaks down activities by floor level and within each floor of every building. The results show that the extent of mixing of uses is much greater than has previously been acknowledged, especially towards the centres and in the older parts of towns and cities. These mixed-activity buildings are sometimes relatively simple combinations of domestic and non-domestic, e.g. urban retail with flats above, while others are complex mixtures of different non-domestic activities. The model can be used to investigate how these complex relationships influence energy use. It is argued that, at the larger scale, explicit account needs to be taken of the mixing of uses in future stock models for research and policy-making.     

基于EPC模式的建筑供应链风险研究

简述了工程建设中的EPC模式，建立了EPC模式下的建筑供应链体系；在供应链风险识别的基础上，设计了基于EPC模式的建筑供应链风险指标体系，并提出了相应的风险管理措施，从而提高企业的经济效益。     

Bringing planning back into the picture – How can supply chain planning aid in dealing with supply chain-related problems in construction?

There are several supply chain-related problems facing the construction industry, such as poor construction site logistics, lack of communication and trust. These problems can jeopardize construction projects through delays and cost overruns. Supply chain planning, a part of supply chain management (SCM), can be used as a tool to deal with these problems. The purpose of this paper is to study how linkages between common supply chain-related problems in construction can be illustrated and to demonstrate how they could be resolved through supply chain planning. Firstly, we identify how the linkages between common problems can be illustrated, and secondly the role of supply chain planning in resolving these problems. A conceptual model is developed that was verified using three cases with Swedish gypsum and kitchen supply chains. The model is shown to be useful in illustrating how supply chain problems occurring at executional level on-site are related to problems originating in lack of planning at company/pre-construction level. The study thus demonstrates how supply chain planning can aid in resolving supply chain problems. The paper contributes by bringing planning back into the picture and by showing how supply chain planning can help to adopt SCM in construction.     

城市政体模型及其对中国城市发展研究的启示

随着中国快速城市化过程 ,越来越多的学者认为城市发展和建设不再是单纯的物质性、经济性的问题而是与城市政府的制度安排和政策选择息息相关。特别是对于正处在社会经济转型期的、以经济增长为主导的中国城市来说 ,政策选择参与者的价值取向、政策决策和协商机制的建构显得尤为重要。对此 ,西方规划学界主要是通过城市政体模型从政治经济学的角度来分析城市发展的。文章从源于美国的城市政体模型入手 ,简述其主要的理论特征 ,并且在此基础上进一步探讨其对现阶段中国城市政体分析的启示     

谈如何控制园林绿化工程施工项目成本

园林绿化企业之间竞争激烈,施工企业为了既创造效益,又被甲方接受,必须推行有效管理,控制和降低成本.通过实践总结经验和教训,提出企业要控制施工项目成本,首先必须树立施工项目成本意识;其次要熟悉并运用施工项目成本控制管理内容和程序;最后要落实施工项目成本控制的组织措施,方能取得较好的经济效益和社会效益.     

基于可拓学与BSC的房地产企业绩效评价研究

为了加强房地产企业的内部经营与管理、促进企业发展,文章探讨和研究了科学的房地产企业绩效评价指标体系及可拓学的优度评价方法。并在些基础上,综合运用平衡记分卡与可拓学理论为房地产企业建立绩效评价模型,模型运行结果可以对企业平衡记分卡的四个维度及综合绩效进行评价,使企业有效并正确地发现企业经营中存在的问题,为企业经营管理提供很好的决策信息,从而有针对性的进行改善。     

Planning a City through ‘Dialogue’: Deliberative Policy-making in Action in Western Australia

Deliberative policy-making is an alternative method of generating new planning strategies based on the public deliberation of citizens and stakeholders. Four ideals of deliberative policy-making espoused by deliberative democracy theorists are identified. Using this framework the ‘Dialogue with the City’ process undertaken by the Western Australian Government to develop the Network City spatial planning strategy for the Perth metropolitan region is examined. While this process went further than most towards realising the ideals of deliberative policy-making, the Government was not able to fully achieve the ideals of inclusive decision-making, equitable decision-making, deliberation toward the common good and consensus decision-making. It is most likely that the deliberative approach to policy-making does not represent a new model for governing; rather, these participation techniques constitute a more sophisticated model for involving citizens and stakeholders in planning.