Transfer learning for cross-company software defect prediction

Context

Software defect prediction studies usually built models using within-company data, but very few focused on the prediction models trained with cross-company data. It is difficult to employ these models which are built on the within-company data in practice, because of the lack of these local data repositories. Recently, transfer learning has attracted more and more attention for building classifier in target domain using the data from related source domain. It is very useful in cases when distributions of training and test instances differ, but is it appropriate for cross-company software defect prediction?

Objective

In this paper, we consider the cross-company defect prediction scenario where source and target data are drawn from different companies. In order to harness cross company data, we try to exploit the transfer learning method to build faster and highly effective prediction model.

Method

Unlike the prior works selecting training data which are similar from the test data, we proposed a novel algorithm called Transfer Naive Bayes (TNB), by using the information of all the proper features in training data. Our solution estimates the distribution of the test data, and transfers cross-company data information into the weights of the training data. On these weighted data, the defect prediction model is built.

Results

This article presents a theoretical analysis for the comparative methods, and shows the experiment results on the data sets from different organizations. It indicates that TNB is more accurate in terms of AUC (The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve), within less runtime than the state of the art methods.

Conclusion

It is concluded that when there are too few local training data to train good classifiers, the useful knowledge from different-distribution training data on feature level may help. We are optimistic that our transfer learning method can guide optimal resource allocation strategies, which may reduce software testing cost and increase effectiveness of software testing process.     

Cross versus Within-Company Cost Estimation Studies: A Systematic Review

The objective of this paper is to determine under what circumstances individual organizations would be able to rely on cross-company-based estimation models. We performed a systematic review of studies that compared predictions from cross-company models with predictions from within-company models based on analysis of project data. Ten papers compared cross-company and within-company estimation models; however, only seven presented independent results. Of those seven, three found that cross-company models were not significantly different from within-company models, and four found that cross-company models were significantly worse than within-company models. Experimental procedures used by the studies differed making it impossible to undertake formal meta-analysis of the results. The main trend distinguishing study results was that studies with small within-company data sets (i.e., $20 projects) that used leave-one-out cross validation all found that the within-company model was significantly different (better) from the cross-company model. The results of this review are inconclusive. It is clear that some organizations would be ill-served by cross-company models whereas others would benefit. Further studies are needed, but they must be independent (i.e., based on different data bases or at least different single company data sets) and should address specific hypotheses concerning the conditions that would favor cross-company or within-company models. In addition, experimenters need to standardize their experimental procedures to enable formal meta-analysis, and recommendations are made in Section 3.     

On the relative value of cross-company and within-company data for defect prediction

We propose a practical defect prediction approach for companies that do not track defect related data. Specifically, we investigate the applicability of cross-company (CC) data for building localized defect predictors using static code features. Firstly, we analyze the conditions, where CC data can be used as is. These conditions turn out to be quite few. Then we apply principles of analogy-based learning (i.e. nearest neighbor (NN) filtering) to CC data, in order to fine tune these models for localization. We compare the performance of these models with that of defect predictors learned from within-company (WC) data. As expected, we observe that defect predictors learned from WC data outperform the ones learned from CC data. However, our analyses also yield defect predictors learned from NN-filtered CC data, with performance close to, but still not better than, WC data. Therefore, we perform a final analysis for determining the minimum number of local defect reports in order to learn WC defect predictors. We demonstrate in this paper that the minimum number of data samples required to build effective defect predictors can be quite small and can be collected quickly within a few months. Hence, for companies with no local defect data, we recommend a two-phase approach that allows them to employ the defect prediction process instantaneously. In phase one, companies should use NN-filtered CC data to initiate the defect prediction process and simultaneously start collecting WC (local) data. Once enough WC data is collected (i.e. after a few months), organizations should switch to phase two and use predictors learned from WC data.

Analyzing and handling local bias for calibrating parametric cost estimation models

ContextParametric cost estimation models need to be continuously calibrated and improved to assure more accurate software estimates and reflect changing software development contexts. Local calibration by tuning a subset of model parameters is a frequent practice when software organizations adopt parametric estimation models to increase model usability and accuracy. However, there is a lack of understanding about the cumulative effects of such local calibration practices on the evolution of general parametric models over time.ObjectiveThis study aims at quantitatively analyzing and effectively handling local bias associated with historical cross-company data, thus improves the usability of cross-company datasets for calibrating and maintaining parametric estimation models.MethodWe design and conduct three empirical studies to measure, analyze and address local bias in cross-company dataset, including: (1) defining a method for measuring the local bias associated with individual organization data subset in the overall dataset; (2) analyzing the impacts of local bias on the performance of an estimation model; (3) proposing a weighted sampling approach to handle local bias. The studies are conducted on the latest COCOMO II calibration dataset.ResultsOur results show that the local bias largely exists in cross company dataset, and the local bias negatively impacts the performance of parametric model. The local bias based weighted sampling technique helps reduce negative impacts of local bias on model performance.ConclusionLocal bias in cross-company data does harm model calibration and adds noisy factors to model maintenance. The proposed local bias measure offers a means to quantify degree of local bias associated with a cross-company dataset, and assess its influence on parametric model performance. The local bias based weighted sampling technique can be applied to trade-off and mitigate potential risk of significant local bias, which limits the usability of cross-company data for general parametric model calibration and maintenance.     

Using Bayesian regression and EM algorithm with missing handling for software effort prediction

ContextAlthough independent imputation techniques are comprehensively studied in software effort prediction, there are few studies on embedded methods in dealing with missing data in software effort prediction.ObjectiveWe propose BREM (Bayesian Regression and Expectation Maximization) algorithm for software effort prediction and two embedded strategies to handle missing data.MethodThe MDT (Missing Data Toleration) strategy ignores the missing data when using BREM for software effort prediction and the MDI (Missing Data Imputation) strategy uses observed data to impute missing data in an iterative manner while elaborating the predictive model.ResultsExperiments on the ISBSG and CSBSG datasets demonstrate that when there are no missing values in historical dataset, BREM outperforms LR (Linear Regression), BR (Bayesian Regression), SVR (Support Vector Regression) and M5′ regression tree in software effort prediction on the condition that the test set is not greater than 30% of the whole historical dataset for ISBSG dataset and 25% of the whole historical dataset for CSBSG dataset. When there are missing values in historical datasets, BREM with the MDT and MDI strategies significantly outperforms those independent imputation techniques, including MI, BMI, CMI, MINI and M5′. Moreover, the MDI strategy provides BREM with more accurate imputation for the missing values than those given by the independent missing imputation techniques on the condition that the level of missing data in training set is not larger than 10% for both ISBSG and CSBSG datasets.ConclusionThe experimental results suggest that BREM is promising in software effort prediction. When there are missing values, the MDI strategy is preferred to be embedded with BREM.     

Feature transfer learning by reinforcement learning for detecting software defect

Software defects, produced inevitably in software projects, seriously affect the efficiency of software testing and maintenance. An appealing solution is the software defect prediction (SDP) that has achieved good performance in many software projects. However, the difference between features and the difference of the same feature between training data and test data may degrade defect prediction performance if such differences violate the model's assumption. To address this issue, we propose a SDP method based on feature transfer learning (FTL), which performs a transformation sequence for each feature in order to map the original features to another feature space. Specifically, FTL first uses the reinforcement learning scheme that automatically learns a strategy for transferring the potential feature knowledge from the training data. Then, we use the learned feature knowledge to inspire the transformation of the test data. The classifier is trained by the transformed training data and predicts defects for transformed test data. We evaluate the validity of FTL on 43 projects from PROMISE and NASA MDP using three classifiers, logistic regression, random forest, and Naive Bayes (NB). Experimental results indicate that FTL is better than the original classifiers and has the best performance on the NB classifier. For PROMISE, after using FTL, the average results of F1-score, AUC, MCC are 0.601, 0.757, and 0.350 respectively, which are 24.9%, 2.6%, and 16.7% higher than the original NB classifier results. The number of projects with improved performance accounts for 83.87%, 83.87%, and 64.52%. Similarly, FTL performs well on NASA MDP. Besides, compared with four feature engineering (FE) methods, FTL achieves an excellent improvement on most projects and the average performance is also better than or close to the FE methods.     

基于多源域适应的缺陷类别预测方法

随着规模和复杂性的迅猛膨胀,软件系统中不可避免地存在缺陷.近年来,基于深度学习的缺陷预测技术成为软件工程领域的研究热点.该类技术可以在不运行代码的情况下发现其中潜藏的缺陷,因而在工业界和学术界受到了广泛的关注.然而,已有方法大多关注方法级的源代码中是否存在缺陷,无法精确识别具体的缺陷类别,从而降低了开发人员进行缺陷定位及修复工作的效率.此外,在实际软件开发实践中,新的项目通常缺乏足够的缺陷数据来训练高精度的深度学习模型,而利用已有项目的历史数据训练好的模型往往在新项目上无法达到良好的泛化性能.因此,本文首先将传统的二分类缺陷预测任务表述为多标签分类问题,即使用CWE(common weakness enumeration)中描述的缺陷类别作为细粒度的模型预测标签.为了提高跨项目场景下的模型性能,本文提出一种融合对抗训练和注意力机制的多源域适应框架.具体而言,该框架通过对抗训练来减少域(即软件项目)差异,并进一步利用域不变特征来获得每个源域和目标域之间的特征相关性.同时,该框架还利用加权最大均值差异作为注意力机制以最小化源域和目标域特征之间的表示距离,从而使模型可以学习到更多的域无关特征.最后在八个真实世界的开源项目上与最先进的基线方法进行大量对比实验验证了所提方法的有效性.     

自纠正噪声标签的人脸美丽预测

目的 人脸美丽预测是研究如何使计算机具有与人类相似的人脸美丽判断或预测能力,然而利用深度神经网络进行人脸美丽预测存在过度拟合噪声标签样本问题,从而影响深度神经网络的泛化性。因此,本文提出一种自纠正噪声标签方法用于人脸美丽预测。方法 该方法包括自训练教师模型机制和重标签再训练机制。自训练教师模型机制以自训练的方式获得教师模型,帮助学生模型进行干净样本选择和训练,直至学生模型泛化能力超过教师模型并成为新的教师模型,并不断重复该过程;重标签再训练机制通过比较最大预测概率和标签对应预测概率,从而纠正噪声标签。同时,利用纠正后的数据反复执行自训练教师模型机制。结果 在大规模人脸美丽数据库LSFBD (large scale facial beauty database)和SCUT-FBP5500数据库上进行实验。结果表明,本文方法在人工合成噪声标签的条件下可降低噪声标签的负面影响,同时在原始LSFBD数据库和SCUT-FBP5500数据库上分别取得60.8%和75.5%的准确率,高于常规方法。结论 在人工合成噪声标签条件下的LSFBD和SCUT-FBP5500数据库以及原始LSFBD和SCUT-FBP5500数据库上的实验表明,所提自纠正噪声标签方法具有选择干净样本学习、充分利用全部数据的特点,可降低噪声标签的负面影响,能在一定程度上降低人脸美丽预测中噪声标签的负面影响,提高预测准确率。     

An empirical study on software defect prediction with a simplified metric set

ContextSoftware defect prediction plays a crucial role in estimating the most defect-prone components of software, and a large number of studies have pursued improving prediction accuracy within a project or across projects. However, the rules for making an appropriate decision between within- and cross-project defect prediction when available historical data are insufficient remain unclear.ObjectiveThe objective of this work is to validate the feasibility of the predictor built with a simplified metric set for software defect prediction in different scenarios, and to investigate practical guidelines for the choice of training data, classifier and metric subset of a given project.MethodFirst, based on six typical classifiers, three types of predictors using the size of software metric set were constructed in three scenarios. Then, we validated the acceptable performance of the predictor based on Top-k metrics in terms of statistical methods. Finally, we attempted to minimize the Top-k metric subset by removing redundant metrics, and we tested the stability of such a minimum metric subset with one-way ANOVA tests.ResultsThe study has been conducted on 34 releases of 10 open-source projects available at the PROMISE repository. The findings indicate that the predictors built with either Top-k metrics or the minimum metric subset can provide an acceptable result compared with benchmark predictors. The guideline for choosing a suitable simplified metric set in different scenarios is presented in Table 12.ConclusionThe experimental results indicate that (1) the choice of training data for defect prediction should depend on the specific requirement of accuracy; (2) the predictor built with a simplified metric set works well and is very useful in case limited resources are supplied; (3) simple classifiers (e.g., Naïve Bayes) also tend to perform well when using a simplified metric set for defect prediction; and (4) in several cases, the minimum metric subset can be identified to facilitate the procedure of general defect prediction with acceptable loss of prediction precision in practice.     

High-order features of a single linear corneal laceration image are valuable biomarkers in an intelligent multimodal analytic strategy for corneal laceration reconstruction

BackgroundIn corneal lacerations, the absence of high-order image features as biomarkers to guide surgical strategy is a limiting factor. The absence of multimodal data restricts the development of automated reconstruction designs for corneal laceration. The present study is aimed at training and optimizing the model based on high-order features from corneal laceration images and real suture samples and completing the intelligent promotion of whole corneal laceration suture auxiliary decision-making with the two-step method of automatic wound identification and stitch position prediction.MethodsBased on the images of isolated corneal wound samples, a fully supervised U-Net learning method and consistent regular semisupervised learning method based on the mean-teacher model were used to identify the wounds. The DDice coefficient was used to evaluate the segmentation and recognition effect. Traditional image processing technology was used to predict the needle entry and exit points of wound sutures based on medical suture principles. The prediction effect was evaluated by viewpoint similarity.ResultsAfter training the wound recognition model based on 2400 corneal images and corresponding incision labels, the DDice coefficients of supervised U-Net with or without postprocessing results were 0.902 and 0.817, respectively. The Dice coefficients of the semisupervisedmean-teacher model with or without postprocessing were 0.921 and 0.843, respectively. The key point similarity of wound stitch position prediction was 0.872 ± 0.021.ConclusionThis new automated method for corneal laceration identification and stitch position generation based on novel biomarkers and multimodal data is expected to assist doctors treating corneal lacerations to quickly formulate a primary suturing strategy.     

Efficient Integration of Compiler-Directed Cache Coherence and Data Prefetching

Cache coherence enforcement and memory latency reduction and hiding are very important and challenging problems in the design of large-scale distributed shared-memory (DSM) multiprocessors. We propose an integrated approach to solve these problems through a compiler-directed cache coherence scheme called the Cache Coherence with Data Prefetching (CCDP) scheme. The CCDP scheme enforces cache coherence by prefetching the potentially stale references in a parallel program. It also prefetches the non-stale references to hide their memory latencies. To optimize the performance of the CCDP scheme, some prefetch hardware support is provided to efficiently handle these two forms of data prefetching operations. We also developed the compiler techniques utilized by the CCDP scheme for stale reference detection, prefetch target analysis, and prefetch scheduling. We evaluated the performance of the CCDP scheme via execution-driven simulations of several numerical applications from the SPEC CFP95 and the Perfect benchmark suites. The simulation results show that the CCDP scheme provides significant performance improvements for the applications studied, comparable to that obtained with a full-map hardware cache coherence scheme.     

基于粗糙集-支持向量机的软件缺陷预测

软件缺陷预测已成为软件工程的重要研究课题,构造了一个基于粗糙集和支持向量机的软件缺陷预测模型。该模型通过粗糙集对原样本集进行属性约减,去掉冗余的和与缺陷预测无关的属性,利用粒子群对支持向量机的参数做选择。实验数据来源于NASA公共数据集,通过属性约减,特征属性由21个约减为5个。实验表明,属性约减后,Bayes分类器、CART树、神经网络和本文提出的粗糙集—支持向量机模型的预测性能均有所提高,本文提出的粗糙集支持向量机的预测性能好于其他三个模型。     

ORESP：基于有序回归的软件缺陷严重程度预测方法

为提高软件缺陷严重程度的预测性能,通过充分考虑软件缺陷严重程度标签间的次序性,提出一种基于有序回归的软件缺陷严重程度预测方法ORESP.该方法首先使用基于Spearman的特征选择方法来识别并移除数据集内的冗余特征,随后使用基于比例优势模型的神经网络来构建预测模型.通过与五种经典分类方法的比较,所提的ORESP方法在四种不同类型的度量下均可取得更高的预测性能,其中基于平均0-1误差(MZE)评测指标,预测模型性能最大可提升10.3％;基于平均绝对误差(MAE)评测指标,预测模型性能最大可提升12.3％.除此之外,发现使用基于Spearman的特征选择方法可以有效提升ORESP方法的预测性能.     

面向COVID-19疫情预测的图卷积神经网络时空数据学习

目的 当前的疾病传播研究主要集中于时序数据和传染病模型,缺乏运用空间信息提升预测精度的探索和解释。在处理时空数据时需要分别提取时间特征和空间特征,再进行特征融合得到较为可靠的预测结果。本文提出一种基于图卷积神经网络（graph convolutional neural network,GCN）的时空数据学习方法,能够运用空间模型端对端地学习时空数据,代替此前由多模块单元相集成的模式。方法 依据数据可视化阶段呈现出的地理空间、高铁线路、飞机航线与感染人数之间的正相关关系,将中国各城市之间的空间分布关系和交通连接关系映射成网络图并编码成地理邻接矩阵、高铁线路直达矩阵、飞机航线直达矩阵以及飞机航线或高铁线路直达矩阵。按滑动时间窗口对疫情数据进行切片后形成张量,依次分批输入到图深度学习模型中参与卷积运算,通过信息传递、反向传播和梯度下降更新可训练参数。结果 在新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情数据集上的实验结果显示,采用GCN学习这一时空数据的分布特征相较于循环神经网络模型,在训练过程中表现出了更强的拟合能力,在训练时间层面节约75%以上的运算成本,在两类损失函数下的平均测试集损失能够下降80%左右。结论 本文所采用的时空数据学习方法具有较低的运算成本和较高的预测精度,尤其在空间特征强于时间特征的时空数据中有着更好的性能,并且为流行病传播范围和感染人数的预测提供了新的方法和思路,有助于相关部门在公共卫生事件中制定应对措施和疾病防控决策。     

基于混合采样与Random_Stacking的软件缺陷预测

现有的软件缺陷预测方法面临数据类别不平衡性、高维数据处理等问题。如何有效解决上述问题已成为目前相关领域的研究热点。针对软件缺陷预测所面临的类别不平衡、预测精度低等问题,本文提出一种基于混合采样与Random_Stacking的软件缺陷预测算法DP_HSRS。DP_HSRS算法首先采用混合采样算法对不平衡数据进行平衡化处理;然后在该平衡数据集上采用Random_Stacking算法进行软件缺陷预测。Random_Stacking算法是对传统Stacking算法的一种有效改进,它通过融合多个经典的分类算法以及Bagging机制构建多个Stacking分类器,对多个Stacking分类器进行投票,得到一个集成分类器,最后利用该集成分类器对软件缺陷进行预测。通过在NASA MDP数据集上的实验结果表明,DP_HSRS算法的性能优于现有的算法,具有更好的缺陷预测性能。     

An empirical study of predicting software faults with case-based reasoning

The resources allocated for software quality assurance and improvement have not increased with the ever-increasing need for better software quality. A targeted software quality inspection can detect faulty modules and reduce the number of faults occurring during operations. We present a software fault prediction modeling approach with case-based reasoning (CBR), a part of the computational intelligence field focusing on automated reasoning processes. A CBR system functions as a software fault prediction model by quantifying, for a module under development, the expected number of faults based on similar modules that were previously developed. Such a system is composed of a similarity function, the number of nearest neighbor cases used for fault prediction, and a solution algorithm. The selection of a particular similarity function and solution algorithm may affect the performance accuracy of a CBR-based software fault prediction system. This paper presents an empirical study investigating the effects of using three different similarity functions and two different solution algorithms on the prediction accuracy of our CBR system. The influence of varying the number of nearest neighbor cases on the performance accuracy is also explored. Moreover, the benefits of using metric-selection procedures for our CBR system is also evaluated. Case studies of a large legacy telecommunications system are used for our analysis. It is observed that the CBR system using the Mahalanobis distance similarity function and the inverse distance weighted solution algorithm yielded the best fault prediction. In addition, the CBR models have better performance than models based on multiple linear regression. Taghi M. Khoshgoftaar is a professor of the Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Florida Atlantic University and the Director of the Empirical Software Engineering Laboratory. His research interests are in software engineering, software metrics, software reliability and quality engineering, computational intelligence, computer performance evaluation, data mining, and statistical modeling. He has published more than 200 refereed papers in these areas. He has been a principal investigator and project leader in a number of projects with industry, government, and other research-sponsoring agencies. He is a member of the Association for Computing Machinery, the IEEE Computer Society, and IEEE Reliability Society. He served as the general chair of the 1999 International Symposium on Software Reliability Engineering (ISSRE’99), and the general chair of the 2001 International Conference on Engineering of Computer Based Systems. Also, he has served on technical program committees of various international conferences, symposia, and workshops. He has served as North American editor of the Software Quality Journal, and is on the editorial boards of the journals Empirical Software Engineering, Software Quality, and Fuzzy Systems. Naeem Seliya received the M.S. degree in Computer Science from Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton, FL, USA, in 2001. He is currently a Ph.D. candidate in the Department of Computer Science and Engineering at Florida Atlantic University. His research interests include software engineering, computational intelligence, data mining, software measurement, software reliability and quality engineering, software architecture, computer data security, and network intrusion detection. He is a student member of the IEEE Computer Society and the Association for Computing Machinery.     

An empirical analysis of data preprocessing for machine learning-based software cost estimation

ContextDue to the complex nature of software development process, traditional parametric models and statistical methods often appear to be inadequate to model the increasingly complicated relationship between project development cost and the project features (or cost drivers). Machine learning (ML) methods, with several reported successful applications, have gained popularity for software cost estimation in recent years. Data preprocessing has been claimed by many researchers as a fundamental stage of ML methods; however, very few works have been focused on the effects of data preprocessing techniques.ObjectiveThis study aims for an empirical assessment of the effectiveness of data preprocessing techniques on ML methods in the context of software cost estimation.MethodIn this work, we first conduct a literature survey of the recent publications using data preprocessing techniques, followed by a systematic empirical study to analyze the strengths and weaknesses of individual data preprocessing techniques as well as their combinations.ResultsOur results indicate that data preprocessing techniques may significantly influence the final prediction. They sometimes might have negative impacts on prediction performance of ML methods.ConclusionIn order to reduce prediction errors and improve efficiency, a careful selection is necessary according to the characteristics of machine learning methods, as well as the datasets used for software cost estimation.     

Software defect prediction using ensemble learning on selected features

ContextSeveral issues hinder software defect data including redundancy, correlation, feature irrelevance and missing samples. It is also hard to ensure balanced distribution between data pertaining to defective and non-defective software. In most experimental cases, data related to the latter software class is dominantly present in the dataset.ObjectiveThe objectives of this paper are to demonstrate the positive effects of combining feature selection and ensemble learning on the performance of defect classification. Along with efficient feature selection, a new two-variant (with and without feature selection) ensemble learning algorithm is proposed to provide robustness to both data imbalance and feature redundancy.MethodWe carefully combine selected ensemble learning models with efficient feature selection to address these issues and mitigate their effects on the defect classification performance.ResultsForward selection showed that only few features contribute to high area under the receiver-operating curve (AUC). On the tested datasets, greedy forward selection (GFS) method outperformed other feature selection techniques such as Pearson’s correlation. This suggests that features are highly unstable. However, ensemble learners like random forests and the proposed algorithm, average probability ensemble (APE), are not as affected by poor features as in the case of weighted support vector machines (W-SVMs). Moreover, the APE model combined with greedy forward selection (enhanced APE) achieved AUC values of approximately 1.0 for the NASA datasets: PC2, PC4, and MC1.ConclusionThis paper shows that features of a software dataset must be carefully selected for accurate classification of defective components. Furthermore, tackling the software data issues, mentioned above, with the proposed combined learning model resulted in remarkable classification performance paving the way for successful quality control.     

改进PSO-ISVM算法的软件缺陷预测

提出基于改进的粒子群优化支持向量机方法（PSO-ISVM）的测控软件缺陷预测方法。通过引入代价惩罚系数,定义粒子群优化算法中的适应度函数,利用最小化适应度函数值作为优化目标,排除大量的冗余干扰信息,提高对测控软件有缺陷模块的预测准确度,寻找支持向量机的最优参数。通过仿真实例分析测控软件有效性,并与常用缺陷预测方法进行比较,表明该模型能加快软件缺陷预测速度和提高对有缺陷模块的预测准确度。     

基于机器学习的液压摆缸叶片密封性能预测模型

液压摆缸运行时若液压油从叶片与缸体的间隙泄露,会导致压力下降,减少输出扭矩,无法实现预期操作效果;由此,提出一种基于机器学习的液压摆缸叶片密封性能预测模型;采用Morris方法计算敏感性指标,基于断裂力学角度,采用能量释放模式分析橡胶密封材料疲劳破坏过程,建立疲劳性函数;通过敏感性与疲劳性分析密封性能指标,确立评价标准,并划分性能等级,获取液压摆缸叶片密封性能的关键因素;根据密封磨损失效极限损伤的计算,确立泄漏率和密封环的热量样本数据;将泄漏率、密封环热量作为BP人工神经网络输入层单元的输入值将性能预测指标作为输出值,构建液压摆缸性能预测模型;实验结果表明：所建模型液压摆缸叶片密封性能预测精度高、效率快,为相关领域机械设计工作提供可靠参考。