Prognostic anomalies of induced seismicity in the region of the Koyna-Warna water reservoirs, West India

In 2000, the region of the Koyna-Warna water reservoirs in West India was hit by two strong earthquakes, which occurred six months apart and had magnitudes M > 5. The Koyna-Warna seismic zone is a typical region of induced seismicity with a pronounced correlation between seismicity and water level variations in the reservoirs. This indicates that the stress level in the region is close to critical; thus, insignificant variations in stress caused by the variations in the water level may trigger a strong earthquake. In order to study the preparatory processes in the sources of the induced earthquakes, in this paper we analyze the seismic catalogue for the Koyna-Warna region before a pair of strong earthquakes of 2000. The induced seismicity is found to exhibit prognostic variations, which are typical of preparation of tectonic earthquakes and indicative of the formation of metastable source zones of future earthquakes. Based on the obtained results, we suggest that initiation of failure in these metastable zones within the region of induced seismicity could have been caused by the external impacts associated with water level variations in the reservoirs and by the internal processes of avalanche unstable crack propagation.     

Parallel PSM/FDM Hybrid Simulation of Ground Motions from the 1999 Chi-Chi,Taiwan, Earthquake

-- A new technique for the parallel computing of 3-D seismic wave propagation simulation is developed by hybridizing the Fourier pseudospectral method (PSM) and the finite-difference method (FDM). This PSM/FDM hybrid offers a good speed-up rate using a large number of processors. To show the feasibility of the hybrid, a numerical 3-D simulation of strong ground motion was conducted for the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan earthquake (M_w 7.6). Comparisons between the simulation results and observed waveforms from a dense strong ground motion network in Taiwan clearly demonstrate that the variation of the subsurface structure and the complex fault slip distribution greatly affect the damage during the Chi-Chi earthquake. The directivity effect of the fault rupture produced large S-wave pulses along the direction of the rupture propagation. Slips in the shallow part of the fault generate significant surface waves in Coastal Plain along the western coast. A large velocity gradient in the upper crust can propagate seismic waves to longer distances with minimum attenuation. The S waves and surface waves were finally amplified further by the site effect of low-velocity sediments in basins, and caused the significant disasters.     

Sources of Tsunami and Tsunamigenic Earthquakes in Subduction Zones

—We classified tsunamigenic earthquakes in subduction zones into three types earth quakes at the plate interface (typical interplate events), earthquakes at the outer rise, within the subducting slab or overlying crust (intraplate events), and "tsunami earthquakes" that generate considerably larger tsunamis than expected from seismic waves. The depth range of a typical interplate earthquake source is 10–40km, controlled by temperature and other geological parameters. The slip distribution varies both with depth and along-strike. Recent examples show very different temporal change of slip distribution in the Aleutians and the Japan trench. The tsunamigenic coseismic slip of the 1957 Aleutian earthquake was concentrated on an asperity located in the western half of an aftershock zone 1200km long. This asperity ruptured again in the 1986 Andreanof Islands and 1996 Delarof Islands earthquakes. By contrast, the source of the 1994 Sanriku-oki earthquake corresponds to the low slip region of the previous interplate event, the 1968 Tokachi-oki earthquake. Tsunamis from intraplate earthquakes within the subducting slab can be at least as large as those from interplate earthquakes; tsunami hazard assessments must include such events. Similarity in macroseismic data from two southern Kuril earthquakes illustrates difficulty in distinguishing interplate and slab events on the basis of historical data such as felt reports and tsunami heights. Most moment release of tsunami earthquakes occurs in a narrow region near the trench, and the concentrated slip is responsible for the large tsunami. Numerical modeling of the 1996 Peru earthquake confirms this model, which has been proposed for other tsunami earthquakes, including 1896 Sanriku, 1946 Aleutian and 1992 Nicaragua.     

Lithospheric structure of Southeast Anatolia from joint inversion of local and teleseismic data

A joint tomographic inversion of local and teleseismic arrival times recorded at 41 seismic stations in southeast Anatolia is conducted to study the 3-D lithospheric velocity structure and its relation to the prevailing tectonic processes. A total of 21300 arrivals from local and teleseismic events are used in the final inversion. The tomographic model reveals prominent lower crustal/uppermost mantle low-velocity anomalies. High-velocity zones are imaged in the western part of the study area. The background seismic activity occurs mainly at the low-velocity areas and to a lesser extent in some high-velocity zones. Large crustal earthquakes occur in average velocity zones, but not in high-velocity areas that can resist stress. Results of the checkerboard resolution test indicate the reliability of the obtained images; while the large hit counts at most depth slices denote reasonable ray-path coverage for most parts of the study area. The obtained velocity anomalies are generally consistent with many previous geophysical measurements and give much deeper understanding of the current seismotectonic processes occurring in the region.     

利用三维高斯射线束成像进行地震定位

常规的地震定位方法通常需要拾取地震记录的初至,当初至不明显或被较高水平的噪声淹没时精度较低.本文采用基于三维高斯射线束的偏移成像方法对震源进行定位,较好地解决了该问题.通过三维高斯射线束对台站记录进行偏移归位,并将各台站成像结果的交点作为地震能量释放的中心位置;当各台站成像结果不能交于一点时,采用三维空间高斯滤波方法可实现震源位置的自动获取.提出的变网格计算方案极大地减少了计算量,显著地提高了成像精度和计算效率.利用首都圈地震台网数据,对涿鹿、滦县以及房山三个地震事件进行试算,结果表明:基于变网格三维高斯束偏移成像的地震定位方法自动化程度很高,而且具有较好的抗噪能力,特别适合处理低信噪比资料的地震定位问题.     

上海及其邻近地区三维地壳结构层析成像

利用上海及其邻近地区地震台网的地震记录及人工爆破资料,采用地震层析成像方法反演研究区地壳三维P波、S波速度结构模型。成像结果表明:不同深度的P波、S波速度扰动呈北西向展布特征;地震大多数分布在低速区的块体内,说明地震不仅与断裂活动有关,有可能还与物质结构和性质有关;上海及其邻近地区上地壳速度结构,断裂活动和物质性质三者之间存在密切关系。     

日本东北地区双震带高精度重定位研究

日本所在的西太平洋地区是世界上中深源地震发生最为频繁的地区. 早期研究已表明, 日本东北地区下方的中深源地震呈双层分布. 为进一步分析该双震带的空间分布特征, 本文通过方法测试证明了采用球坐标系下的三维射线追踪法改进后的双差定位法进行地震重定位的精确性和有效性, 对使用该方法进行重定位前、 后各方向上的误差进行了分析, 并确定了最佳的定位参数. 在此基础上, 对日本东北地区的中深源地震进行了高精度重定位, 并对重定位得到的震源位置进行了空间拟合, 其结果表明地震呈明显的双层分布, 且与西太平洋俯冲板块几近平行. 本文研究结果对揭示双震带中地震的发震机理以及俯冲板块内的精细结构均具有重要意义.      

一种评估地震前兆可信度的方法

本文提出了一种可以对地震前兆的可信度进行评估的方法. 通过对前兆信息的抽取、各类非地震干扰的识别、前兆与地震事件在时间和空间的相关性分析以及前兆的随机检验等一系列手段来评估前兆信息的真伪,提高地震前兆信息的显著性和可信度. 该方法及思路也可为其他非地震前兆的可信度评估所借鉴. 作为一个具体的例子,本文利用日本气象厅的地震目录以及能定量描述地震活动的时、空、强信息演化特征的RTL(Region_Time_Length)方法对2000年10月6日在日本鸟取县西部发生的73级地震前周围地区近26年的地震活动进行了系统的研究,得到了可能的地震活动前兆信息,并采用本文提出的方法对该前兆进行了评估,证实了上述前兆的显著性和可信性.     

Soil H<Subscript>2</Subscript> and CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> Surveys at Several Active Faults in Japan

Soil H₂ and CO₂ surveys were carried out along seven active faults and around the aftershock region of the 2000 Tottori-ken Seibu earthquake in Japan. Diffuse CO₂ effluxes were also measured along one fault and around the 2000 aftershock region. The results show highly variable H₂ concentration in space and time and it seems that the maximum H₂ concentration at each active fault correlates with fault activity as exemplified by the time of the latest big earthquakes. Even though observed H₂ concentrations in four faults were markedly lower than those collected previously in the latter half of the 1970s, it is evident that the higher H₂ concentrations in this study are due to the addition of the fault gases. Comparing the chemical composition of trapped gases (H₂: 5–20% and CO₂/H₂: 0.5–12) in fractured rocks of drill cores bored at the Nojima fault, a soil gas sample with the highest H₂ concentration showed large amounts of the trapped fault gas, diluted with atmospheric component. The profile experiment across a fracture zone at the Yamasaki fault showed higher H₂ concentrations and lower CO₂/H₂ ratios as was observed in soil gas from the fracture zone. A few days after the 2000 Tottori-kei Seibu earthquake, no CO₂ effluxes related to the occurrence of earthquakes were observed at the aftershock region. However, only above the epicenter zone, relatively high H₂ concentrations in soil gases were observed.     

Numerical Simulation of Fault Zone Guided Waves: Accuracy and 3-D Effects

-- Fault zones are thought to consist of regions with reduced seismic velocity. When sources are located in or close to these low-velocity zones, guided seismic head and trapped waves are generated which may be indicative of the structure of fault zones at depth. Observations above several fault zones suggest that they are common features of near fault radiation, yet their interpretation may be highly ambiguous. Analytical methods have been developed to calculate synthetic seismograms for sources in fault zones as well as at the material discontinuities. These solutions can be used for accurate modeling of wave propagation in plane-parallel layered fault zone structures. However, at present it is not clear how modest deviations from such simplified geometries affect the generation efficiency and observations of trapped wave motion. As more complicated models cannot be solved by analytical means, numerical methods must be employed. In this paper we discuss 3-D finite-difference calculations of waves in modestly irregular fault zone structures. We investigate the accuracy of the numerical solutions for sources at material interfaces and discuss some dominant effects of 3-D structures. We also show that simple mathematical operations on 2-D solutions generated with line sources allow accurate modeling of 3-D wave propagation produced by point sources. The discussed simulations indicate that structural discontinuities of the fault zone (e.g., fault offsets) larger than the fault zone width affect significantly the trapping efficiency, while vertical properly gradients, fault zone narrowing with depth, small-scale structures, and moderate geometrical variations do not. The results also show that sources located with appropriate orientations outside and below a shallow fault zone layer can produce considerable guided wave energy in the overlying fault zone layer.     

3-D Viscoelastic FEM Modeling of Crustal Deformation in Northeast Japan

-- As a first step toward establishing a standard earthquake cycle model in Japan, we simulate the crustal deformation during the past 100 years in northeast Japan, using a 3-D FEM based on the kinematic model. Then, we compare the computed results with the observed long-term leveling data and the recent GPS data. On the whole, although the effect of the subducting PAC is dominant, coseismic deformation of the interplate earthquakes can be clearly seen in the inland. Moreover, the postseismic deformation of the earthquakes due to the viscoelastic upper mantle seriously affects the inland movements, and continues for a few decades. Our modeling, including the effects of the interplate earthquakes and the three-dimensional viscoelastic inhomogeneity, reasonably explains the observed movement. Finally, we stress that the viscoelastic effect should be taken into consideration in the analyses, even if no earthquakes occur in the analyzed period.     

Universality of the Seismic Moment-frequency Relation

—We analyze the seismic moment-frequency relation in various depth ranges and for different seismic regions, using Flinn-Engdahl's regionalization of global seismicity. Three earthquake lists of centroid-moment tensor data have been used the Harvard catalog, the USGS catalog, and the Huang et al. (1997) catalog of deep earthquakes. The results confirm the universality of the β-values and the maximum moment for shallow earthquakes in continental regions, as well as at and near continental boundaries. Moreover, we show that although fluctuations in earthquake size distribution increase with depth, the β-values for earthquakes in the depth range of 0–500 km exhibit no statistically significant regional variations. The regional variations are significant only for deep events near the 660 km boundary. For declustered shallow earthquake catalogs and deeper events, we show that the worldwide β-values have the same value of 0.60 ± 0.02. This finding suggests that the β-value is a universal constant. We investigate the statistical correlations between the numbers of seismic events in different depth ranges and the correlation of the tectonic deformation rate and seismic activity (the number of earthquakes above a certain threshold level per year). The high level of these correlations suggests that seismic activity indicates tectonic deformation rate in subduction zones. Combined with the universality of the β-value, this finding implies little if any variation in maximum earthquake seismic moment among various subduction zones. If we assume that earthquakes of maximum size are similar in different depth ranges and the seismic efficiency coefficient, χ, is close to 100% for shallow seismicity, then we can estimate χ for deeper earthquakes for intermediate earthquakes χ≈ 5%, and χ≈ 1% for deep events. These results may lead to new theoretical understanding of the earthquake process and better estimates of seismic hazard.     

Calibration of the Regional Crustal Waveguide and the Retrieval of Source Parameters Using Waveform Modeling

v--vRegional crustal waveguide calibration is essential to the retrieval of source parameters and the location of smaller (M < 4.8) seismic events. This path calibration of regional seismic phases is strongly dependent on the accuracy of hypocentral locations of calibration (or master) events. This information can be difficult to obtain, especially for smaller events. Generally, explosion or quarry blast generated travel-time data with known locations and origin times are useful for developing the path calibration parameters, but in many regions such data sets are scanty or do not exist. We present a method which is useful for regional path calibration independent of such data, i.e. with earthquakes, which is applicable for events down to M_w = 4 and which has successfully been applied in India, central Asia, western Mediterranean, North Africa, Tibet and the former Soviet Union. These studies suggest that reliably determining depth is essential to establishing accurate epicentral location and origin time for events. We find that the error in source depth does not necessarily trade-off only with the origin time for events with poor azimuthal coverage, but with the horizontal location as well, thus resulting in poor epicentral locations. For example, hypocenters for some events in central Asia were found to move from their fixed-depth locations by about 20 km. Such errors in location and depth will propagate into path calibration parameters, particularly with respect to travel times. The modeling of teleseismic depth phases (pP, sP) yields accurate depths for earthquakes down to magnitude M_w = 4.7. This M_w threshold can be lowered to four if regional seismograms are used in conjunction with a calibrated velocity structure model to determine depth, with the relative amplitude of the P_nl waves to the surface waves and the interaction of regional sPmP and pPmP phases being good indicators of event depths. We also found that for deep events a seismic phase which follows an S-wave path to the surface and becomes critical, developing a head wave by S to P conversion is also indicative of depth. The detailed characteristic of this phase is controlled by the crustal waveguide. The key to calibrating regionalized crustal velocity structure is to determine depths for a set of master events by applying the above methods and then by modeling characteristic features that are recorded on the regional waveforms. The regionalization scheme can also incorporate mixed-path crustal waveguide models for cases in which seismic waves traverse two or more distinctly different crustal structures. We also demonstrate that once depths are established, we need only two-stations travel-time data to obtain reliable epicentral locations using a new adaptive grid-search technique which yields locations similar to those determined using travel-time data from local seismic networks with better azimuthal coverage.     

Simulations of Seismic Hazard for the Pacific Northwest of the United States from Earthquakes Associated with the Cascadia Subduction Zone

-- We investigate the impact of different rupture and attenuation models for the Cascadia subduction zone by simulating seismic hazard models for the Pacific Northwest of the U.S. at 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. We calculate the sensitivity of hazard (probabilistic ground motions) to the source parameters and the attenuation relations for both intraslab and interface earthquakes and present these in the framework of the standard USGS hazard model that includes crustal earthquakes. Our results indicate that allowing the deep intraslab earthquakes to occur anywhere along the subduction zone increases the peak ground acceleration hazard near Portland, Oregon by about 20%. Alternative attenuation relations for deep earthquakes can result in ground motions that differ by a factor of two. The hazard uncertainty for the plate interface and intraslab earthquakes is analyzed through a Monte-Carlo logic tree approach and indicates a seismic hazard exceeding 1 g (0.2 s spectral acceleration) consistent with the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Maps in western Washington, Oregon, and California and an overall coefficient of variation that ranges from 0.1 to 0.4. Sensitivity studies indicate that the paleoseismic chronology and the magnitude of great plate interface earthquakes contribute significantly to the hazard uncertainty estimates for this region. Paleoseismic data indicate that the mean earthquake recurrence interval for great earthquakes is about 500 years and that it has been 300 years since the last great earthquake. We calculate the probability of such a great earthquake along the Cascadia plate interface to be about 14% when considering a time-dependent model and about 10% when considering a time-independent Poisson model during the next 50-year interval.     

Spatial variations of the 660-km discontinuity in the western Pacific subduction zones observed from CEArray triplication data

We examined the spatial variation of velocity structures around the 660-km discontinuity at the western Pacific subduction zones by waveform modeling of triplication data.Data from two deep earthquakes beneath Izu-Bonin and Northeast China are used.Both events were well recorded by a dense broadband seismic network in China (CEArray).The two events are located at approximately the same distance to the CEArray,yet significant differences are observed in their records:(1) the direct arrivals traveling above t...     

Influence of fluids and magma on earthquakes: seismological evidence

In this paper, we present seismological evidence for the influence of fluids and magma on the generation of large earthquakes in the crust and the subducting oceanic slabs under the Japan Islands. The relationship between seismic tomography and large crustal earthquakes (M=5.7-8.0) in Japan during a period of 116 years from 1885 to 2000 is investigated and it is found that most of the large crustal earthquakes occurred in or around the areas of low seismic velocity. The low-velocity zones represent weak sections of the seismogenic crust. The crustal weakening is closely related to the subduction process in this region. Along the volcanic front and in back-arc areas, the crustal weakening is caused by active volcanoes and arc magma resulting from the convective circulation process in the mantle wedge and dehydration reactions in the subducting slab. In the forearc region of southwest Japan, fluids are suggested in the 1995 Kobe earthquake source zone, which have contributed to the rupture nucleation. The fluids originate from the dehydration of the subducting Philippine Sea slab. The recent 2001 Geiyo earthquake (M=6.8) occurred at 50 km depth within the subducting Philippine Sea slab, and it was also related to the slab dehydration process. A detailed 3D velocity structure is determined for the northeast Japan forearc region using data from 598 earthquakes that occurred under the Pacific Ocean with hypocenters well located with SP depth phases. The results show that strong lateral heterogeneities exist along the slab boundary, which represent asperities and results of slab dehydration and affect the degree and extent of the interplate seismic coupling. These results indicate that large earthquakes do not strike anywhere, but only anomalous areas which can be detected with geophysical methods. The generation of a large earthquake is not a pure mechanical process, but is closely related to physical and chemical properties of materials in the crust and upper mantle, such as magma, fluids, etc.     

苏门答腊岛8.7级地震对我国南北地震带地震形势的影响

分析了苏门答腊8．7级地震对我国南北地震带尤其是川滇地震活动和前兆观测的巨大影响，以及历史上从印度安达曼到印度尼西亚苏门答腊区域的巨大地震与中国大陆西部尤其是南北地震带强震的关系。结果表明：这次苏门答腊8．7级地震对南北地震带地震活动和前兆观测的影响巨大；历史上安达曼—苏门答腊区域的巨大地震与中国大陆西部尤其是南北地震带强震存在较短时间尺度的呼应相关。     

Seismic moment of great deep shocks

The long-period Rayleigh waves were investigated for the largest four deep shocks in 1963–1973 to determine the seismic moment by the same technique as used for shallow earthquakes. The results could be used for a quantitative comparison of source parameters between shallow and deep events. Three of the four shocks occurred beneath the South American continent (the Colombia earthquake, 1970; the western Brazil earthquake, 1963; the Peru—Bolivia border earthquake, 1963) and the other beneath the Japan Sea (1973). The focal depths are 653, 576, 593 and 575 km, respectively. The largest value of seismic moment was obtained as 2.1 · 10²⁸ dyncm for the Colombia earthquake. This value is still about forty times smaller than that for the great Alaskan earthquake. A slight inconsistency was found between the first-motion diagram and the Rayleigh wave radiation pattern for the Colombia earthquake and the Peru—Bolivia border earthquake.     

利用近场加速度记录确定近震震源参数的研究

本文对利用强震近场加速度记录确定时,空、强三个完整的震源参数。文中给出一种利用计算机自动识别地震记录的Ｐ波初动到时和Ｓ波震相到的算法。根据新近发表的Ｗｏｏｄ－Ａｎｄｅｒｓｏｎ地震仪器的最新参数,修牍正唐山地区量规函数。利用唐 山数字震观测台阵得到的近场加速度数据,计算了１０次地震的震源位置和震级,并对定位误差进行了综合分析,将强震台网测定的震源参数与地震台     

Identification of High Frequency Pulses from Earthquake Asperities Along Chilean Subduction Zone Using Strong Motion

The Chilean subduction zone is one of the most active of the world with M?=?8 or larger interplate thrust earthquakes occurring every 10?years or so on the average. The identification and characterization of pulses propagated from dominant asperities that control the rupture of these earthquakes is an important problem for seismology and especially for seismic hazard assessment since it can reduce the earthquake destructiveness potential. A number of studies of large Chilean earthquakes have revealed that the source time functions of these events are composed of a number of distinct energy arrivals. In this paper, we identify and characterize the high frequency pulses of dominant asperities using near source strong motion records. Two very well recorded interplate earthquakes, the 1985 Central Chile (Ms?=?7.8) and the 2007 Tocopilla (Mw?=?7.7), are considered. In particular, the 2007 Tocopilla earthquake was recorded by a network with absolute time and continuos recording. From the study of these strong motion data it is possible to identify the arrival of large pulses coming from different dominant asperities. The recognition of the key role of dominant asperities in seismic hazard assessment can reduce overestimations due to scattering of attenuation formulas that consider epicentral distance or shortest distance to the fault rather than the asperity distance. The location and number of dominant asperities, their shape, the amplitude and arrival time of pulses can be one of the principal factors influencing Chilean seismic hazard assessment and seismic design. The high frequency pulses identified in this paper have permitted us to extend the range of frequency in which the 1985 Central Chile and 2007 Tocopilla earthquakes were studied. This should allow in the future the introduction of this seismological result in the seismic design of earthquake engineering.