近50年来ENSO与祁连山区气温、降水和径流的对应关系

El Nino and La Nina are the events concerned internationally. The correspondingrelationship between El Nino events, temperature, precipitation and runoff in the Qilian mountain areaare analyzed according to the date from the weather and the hydrometric stations in the area, theresults show that effects of El Nino events to temperature, precipitation and runoff are different in thedifferent time and zones. When El Nino occurs, temperature rises, but precipitation and runoff decreasein the whole Qilian mountain area, especially in the east and middle parts of the area. Temperaturerises, precipitation and runoff still decrease in the eastern Qilian mountain area in the next year ElNino occurring, but decrease extent is fewer. There are not obvious relationship between temperature,precipitation and runoff with El Nino events in the western Qilian mountain area.     

The relationship between ENSO cycle and temperature,precipitation and runoff in the Qilian mountain area

El Nino and La Nina are the events concerned internationally. The corresponding relationship between E1 Nino events, temperature, precipitation and runoff in the Qilian mountain area are analyzed according to the date fi‘om the weather and the hydrometric stations in the area, the results show that effects of E1 Nino events to temperature, precipitation and runoff are different in the different time and zones. When E1 Nino occurs, temperature rises, but precipitation and runoff decrease in the whole Qilian mountain area, especially in the east and middle parts of the area. Temperature rises, precipitation and runoff still decrease in the eastern Qilian mountain area in the next year El Nino occurring, but decrease extent is fewer. There are not obvious relationship between temperature,precipitation and runoff with El Nino events in the western Qilian mountain area.     

ENSO循环对中国西部祁连山区气温、降水和出山径流的影响

 根据有关水文气象台、站的观测资料,分析了El Nino事件与祁连山区气温、降水的对应关系,研究了祁连山区出山径流对EI Nino现象的响应。结果表明, EI Nino现象对祁连山区的气温、降水和径流的影响随着发生时间和地段的不同而不同。EI Nino 事件发生之年, 整个祁连山区均出现气温偏高、降水减少及径流偏枯的现象,尤以东段和中段最为明显。El Nino事件次年, 祁连山区东段和中段气温偏高、降水减少及径流偏枯的程度不如El Nino事件当年那样显著,而西段的气温、降水及径流与El Nino事件则无明显关系。     

ENSO循环与黄河上游径流的丰枯

1IntroductionScholarsoftheinternationalmeteorologicalandoceanographicalcirclesgenerallythinkElNinoeventhasoccurredwhenthepositivedeparturesofmeansea-surfacetemperature(SST)atEquatorialEastPacificOceanArea(lyingbetween0o-10oS,180o-90oW)occurcontinuallywith0.5oCexteedingthelong-rangemeanandcontinualperiodlastinghalfayear.TheyalsothinkLaNinaeventhasoccurredwhenthestrongernegativedeparturesoccur.SouthernOscillationoccurringsynchronouslywithElNinoindicatesitisaneventwithalternativeoccurrence…     

The relationship between ENSO cycle and high and low-flow in the upper Yellow River

Firstly, the hydrological and meteorological features of the upper reaches of the Yellow River above Tangnag are analyzed based on observation data, and effects of EI Nino and La Nina events on the high and low flow in the upper Yellow River are discussed. The results show El Nino and La Nina events possess consanguineous relationship with runoff in the upper Yellow River. As a whole, the probability of low flow occurrence in the upper Yellow River is relatively great along with the occurrence of El Nino event. Moreover, the flood in the upper Yellow River occurs frequently with the occurrence of La Nina event. Besides, the results also show dissimilarity of El Nino event occurring time exerts greater impact on high flow and low flow in the upper Yellow River, that is, the probability of drought will be greater in the same year if El Nino event occurs in spring, the high-flow may happen in this year if El Nino occurs in summer or autumn; the longer the continuous period of El Nino is, the lower the runoff in the upper Yellow River is.     

Study of temperature and precipitation change in upstream mountain area of the Hexi inland river basin since 1960s

All rivers in the Hexi inland region of Gansu Province, China, originate from the northern slope of the Qilian Mountains. They are located in the southern portion of the region and respectively belong to the three large river systems from east to west, the Shiyang, Heihe and Shule river basins. These rivers are supplied by precipitation, snowmelt and ice-melt runoff from the Qilian Mountain area. Therefore, changes of precipitation and temperature in the upstream watersheds of these rivers have an important effect on changes of mountainous runoff and reasonable utilization of water resources in this region. For this reason, the Qilian Mountain area, upstream watersheds and runoff forming areas of these rivers are chosen as the study area. The change characteristics and variation trend of temperature and precipitation in this area under the backdrop of global warming are analyzed based on observational data of relational weather and hydrologic stations in the area. Results show that temperatures in the upriver mountain areas of these three large river basins have been increasing, although the increasing degree is differentially affected by global warming. The rising extent of annual and seasonal temperatures in the upstream mountain area of the Shule river basin located in the western Qilian Mountains, were all largest over the past 50 years. Precipitation in the upstream mountain areas of Hexi region’ three river basins located respectively in the western, middle and eastern Qilian Mountains have been presenting an increasing trend to varying degrees as a whole for more than 50 years. This means that climate in the upstream mountain areas of Hexi region’ three river basins are becoming increasingly warmer and moister over the past 50 years, which will be very good for the ecological environment and agricultural production in the region.     

The simulation of LUCC based on Logistic-CA-Markov model in Qilian Mountain area,China

The Qilian mountain area was examined for using the Logistic-CA-Markov coupling model combined with GIS spatial analyst technology to research the transformation of LUCC, driving force system and simulate future tendency of variation. Results show that:(1) Woodland area decreased by 12.55%, while grassland, cultivated land, and settlement areas increased by 0.22%, 7.92%, and 0.03%, respectively, from 1986 to 2014. During the period of 1986 to 2000, forest degradation in the middle section of the mountain area decreased by 1,501.69 km~2. Vegetation cover area improved, with a net increase of grassland area of 38.12 km~2 from 2000 to 2014.(2) For constructing the system driving force, the best simulation scale was 210m×210m. Based on logistic regression analysis, the contribution(weight) of composite driving forces to land use and cover change was obtained, and the weight value was more objectively compared with AHP and MCE method.(3) In the natural scenarios, it is predicted that land use and cover distribution maps of Qilian mountain area in 2028 and 2042, and the Lee-Sallee index test was adopted. Over the next 27 years(2015–2042), farmland, woodland, grassland, settlement areas show an increasing trend, especially settlements with an obvious change of 0.56%. The area of bare land will decrease by 0.89%. Without environmental degradation, tremendous structural change of LUCC will not occur, and typical characteristic of the vertical zone of the mountain would remain. Farmland and settlement areas will increase, but only in the vicinity of Qilian and Sunan counties.     

ENSO事件与山西气候的关系

通过搜集和整理1955-2008年大同、河曲、原平、太原、阳泉、介休、离石、长治、临汾、运城等地的气象资料,分析了山西的降水量、气温与ENSO事件的关系,研究了ENSO事件对山西气候的影响。结果表明,1955-2008年ENSO事件呈现出起伏波动的特点,1980年以后波动趋势更为剧烈;大致可分为两个阶段:1955-1980年为第1阶段,ENSO冷事件的频次略高于暖事件,但强度更大;1981-2008年为第2阶段,ENSO暖事件的频次和强度均高于冷事件。ENSO事件对山西降水量的影响表现十分明显,ENSO暖事件当年降水量明显偏低,次年降水量明显增加或达到最高趋势明显。ENSO冷事件年全省降水量均明显增加。ENSO事件对山西气温的影响也十分显著,ENSO暖事件年大多表现为气温偏高或升温,ENSO冷事件年一般表现为气温偏低或降温。     

祁连山干旱山地草地生物量对水分条件的响应

以祁连山排露沟流域干旱山地为研究对象,对海拔2 700~3 000 m典型草地群落的草本种类、高度和生物量等进行调查,并同步测定样地内的土壤水分,分析草地生物量随海拔高度的季节性变化特征以及草本生物量和土壤水分的关系。结果表明：（1）草地地上生物量平均值为135.36 g·m^-2,并随海拔升高呈先增加后降低的"单峰"变化模式,在海拔2 900 m时最高,为176.79±28.37 g·m^-2。地下生物量平均值为946.13 g·m^-2,并随海拔升高生物量呈递增趋势,在海拔3 000 m时最高,为1 301.19 ±68.24 g·m^-2。（2）草地地上、地下生物量在不同海拔高度间差异性显著（P<0.05）;该流域干旱山地草地根冠比在4.14~11.95之间变化。（3）在生长季5~9月份,干旱山地草地土壤含水量在9.23%~31.31%之间波动,平均值为14.94%。（4）草本地上、地下生物量与土壤平均含水量均呈显著正相关（P<0.05）,相关性系数分别为0.7784和0.7843。在不同海拔草地群落中,不同土层含水量对草地生物量的贡献不尽相同,但60 cm以上根系主要分布层内的水分对草地生物量具有重要的意义。     

近60 a以来祁连山中部气候变化及其径流响应研究

利用1960—2017年水文、气象资料,采用相关分析、Mann-Kendall和小波分析等方法,研究了祁连山中部气候和径流量变化特征。结果表明:(1)近60 a来祁连山中部气温、降水和径流量总体呈现出气温上升、降水增加、径流量增大的趋势。年平均气温以0.39℃·(10 a)^-1的幅度上升,四季气温升高趋势明显,年平均最低气温和冬季气温的升温幅度最高。降水增加了约19.2%,降水的增加主要归因于夏季降水的增多。(2)平均气温在1993年出现突变,气温突变时间早于西北其他地区。气温和降水的主周期分别为8 a和30 a,在径流量周期响应中,短周期(8 a)与平均气温振荡非常一致,长周期(30 a)与年降水变化较为一致。(3)分析表明,降水和气温都是影响径流量变化的主要因素,建立的径流量预测模型纳什效率系数为0.68,能很好的分析和预测径流量,降水和气温变化分别使径流量增加了21.1%和10.9%,降水对径流量的影响作用更大。     

祁连山区近50a来的气温序列及变化趋势

利用河西祁连山区东段乌鞘岭、中段祁连和西段托勒气象站20世纪50年代以来的气温观测资料分别建立了祁连山区东段、中段和西段三个区域的年及冬季(11~2月)、春季(3~5月)和夏秋季(6~10月)的气温时间序列,并对其变化特征和趋势进行了分析研究。结果表明:祁连山区的平均气温的变化既与全球升温存在着某种程度的一致性,又有着鲜明的区域和季节差异,具体表现为:冬季(11~2月)平均气温序列的上升趋势较年平均气温和其它季节平均气温更为显著,并且20世纪90年代为近50a来最暖的10a;总体上祁连山区的平均气温呈不连续地缓慢地波动状上升趋势,但升幅不是很大。因此,预计祁连山区平均气温的这种变化对出山径流将不会产生大的影响。     

ENSO循环与黄河上游径流的丰枯

分析了黄河上游径流主要形成区——唐乃亥以上流域的气象和水文特性,在此基础上,根据 El Nino 现象及 La Nina 现象与黄河上游径流的丰枯的对应关系,探讨了 ENSO 事件对黄河上游径流的影响。统计结果表明,ENSO 现象与黄河上游唐乃亥以上流域的径流丰枯有着密切的关系。总体而言,伴随着 El Nino 事件的发生,黄河上游出现枯水的概率较大,而黄河上游的洪水常伴随着 La Nina 事件发生。     

近60年来厄尔尼诺事件对广东省旱灾的影响

厄尔尼诺是影响全球的大尺度气候现象,对广东省的气候也有影响。在对厄尔尼诺事件进行系统分类研究的基础上,利用X²检验和条件概率检验的方法,对近60年来厄尔尼诺事件与广东省旱灾的关系进行研究,结果表明:广东省的旱灾和厄尔尼诺关系较为密切,23次旱灾,有17次和厄尔尼诺事件有关。研究还发现厄尔尼诺事件的强度、发生的季节以及持续的时间与广东省旱灾的发生有一定关系:中等及强厄尔尼诺事件往往会导致广东省旱灾的发生;春季和秋季发生的厄尔尼诺事件,广东省不易发生旱灾,而夏季发生的厄尔尼诺事件则广东省易发生旱灾; 发生连续性的厄尔尼诺事件时,广东省易发生旱灾。     

河西内陆河流域绿洲面积对地表径流的响应

利用NASA AVHRR NDVI 3g遥感资料计算得出河西内陆河流域植被归一化指数(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index,NDVI),将NDVI＞0.20区域视为绿洲,通过计算绿洲区NDVI的变差系数和线性斜率分析1982-2013年绿洲面积变化,并进一步分析其对地表径流的响应...     

天桥泉域与黄河河段的补径排关系变化及其对河川径流的影响

1973年以来,黄河中游河口镇至吴堡之间未控区的实测径流量大幅减少,甚至1/4年份出现负值;基于1956-1972年的降雨--径流关系,1973-2014年降雨条件的径流量偏少84%.分析认为,1973年以后,黄河该河段干流水库蓄水运行导致天桥泉域与黄河之间的补径排关系发生了变化,此变化不仅大幅减少了左岸泉水对黄河的补给量,而且增加了黄河向右岸岩溶含水层的渗漏量,是河口镇至吴堡之间未控区的实测径流大幅偏少的主要原因.本文通过不同时期的降雨径流关系对比,以及林草植被,梯田,用水和坝库水面蒸发等其他下垫面因素减水作用分析,推算出因泉水--河水补给关系变化而产生的黄河径流减少量,平均每年约6~8亿m³.     

黄土丘陵沟壑区极端降雨事件及其对径流泥沙的影响

半干旱黄土丘陵沟壑区是我国水土流失的重灾区。在全球气候变化的大背景下,极端降雨事件时有发生,加重了区域水土流失防治的难度。因此,科学界定极端降雨事件、进而探讨其发生规律及其对径流侵蚀的影响尤为重要。通过整理定西市安家沟流域(35°35′N,104°39′E)17年的降水和径流侵蚀数据进行统计分析。以降雨量和最大30min雨强为指标,采用世界气象组织的标准划分了极端降雨事件。结果发现:(1)研究区内极端次降雨事件的雨量和雨强的临界值分别为40.11mm和0.55mm/min,次降雨量的多年平均值为18.87mm。17年间共发生12次极端事件,5月、7月、8月份的发生概率分别为16.67%、50%和33.33%。因此最佳防治时间段为7、8月份。(2)聚类分析表明极端降雨事件可分为三类:降雨量和雨强都大于临界值,占25%;降雨量大于临界值,而雨强小于临界值,占41.67%;雨强大于临界值,降雨量大于多年平均值而小于临界值,占33.33%。(3)在极端降雨事件作用下,径流系数和侵蚀模数要比对应的多年平均值高。总体而言,降雨量和雨强都很高的极端事件的破坏性最强,但高历时低雨强的极端事件所产生的破坏也不容低估。(4)沙棘林在生长演替的过程中显著增强了抵御土壤侵蚀的能力,对极端降雨事件有很好的防治作用。抵御极端降雨最弱的是坡耕地,主要是由于受到坡度大、植被覆盖率低以及人为干扰等因素的影响。     

Factors affecting runoff and sediment yield on the semiarid loess area in Northern Shaanxi Province,China

The semiarid loess area in north Shaanxi Province is one of the most serious areas of water erosion in China. The Chinese government initiated the project “Grain-for-Green” for soil erosion control in 1999, with significant effect. Vegetation, rainfall, soil, and topography are the most dominant natural factors affecting soil erosion; therefore, the aim of this research was to investigate the effects of these four factors on runoff and soil loss at the runoff-plot scale over five years and use the Gray relational analysis methods to compare the impacts of these factors. Five runoff-measuring sites were established in five different vegetation types. The results show that the relative impacts of the four factors on runoff were: rainfall > soil > topography > vegetation, and the relative impacts of the factors on sediment yield were soil > runoff > rainfall > topography > vegetation. We also analyzed the weights of these four factors on runoff and sediment yield during the wettest year alone. For that year, the relative weights of the factors on runoff were topography > rainfall > soil > vegetation, and the relative weights of the factors on sediment yield were runoff > soil > rainfall > topography > vegetation.     

细胞周期监测点激酶2突变与乳腺癌相关的研究进展

细胞周期检测点激酶2（checkpoint kinase 2,CHEK2）是由CHEK2基因编码的DNA双链断裂损伤的重要信号转导蛋白,参与G₁期、S期和G₂/M期的阻滞。CHEK2基因突变和乳腺癌病理特征与预后相关,是乳腺癌重要的易感基因。CHEK2有1100delC、Y390C以及I157T等多种突变形式,通过多条不同通路,如SDF-1和IL-6、BRCA1/2等影响细胞周期监测点的功能。在化疗方面,寻找CHEK2抑制剂以增强化疗或放疗对肿瘤细胞的杀伤效果也是当前的研究热点之一。本文针对乳腺癌中CHEK2突变的形式、机制以及可能的治疗靶点做一综述。     

祖厉河流域降雨径流泥沙变化特征研究

祖厉河流域位于年降水量200～400 mm之间过渡带,是气候变化最敏感和最为复杂的区域之一。运用祖厉河流域1955-2013年径流量、输沙量与年降雨量的变化趋势、时段特征进行了分析。结果表明：祖厉河流域降雨量、径流量和输沙量存在年际变化大、逐年减小的变化趋势;年降雨量在1995年出现突变点,降雨量存在明显的丰水和枯水变化,丰水时段（1955-1989年）年降水量为376.2 mm,枯水时段（1990-2013年）年降水量为224.9 mm;径流量和泥沙量的突变点分别出现在1995年和2000年;依据UF_k值信度变化趋势,将径流量、输沙量变化分为非显著减少（1955-1971年）、显著减少（1972-1985年）、较显著减少（1986-2000年）和极显著减少（2001-2013年）四个时期。     

1979-2016年祁连山地区大气水汽含量时空特征及其与降水的关系

采用1979-2016年ECMWF1.5°×1.5°逐月再分析资料及同期37个气象站点的降水资料,利用一元线性回归、累积距平、Kriging及IDW（反距离加权）等方法分析了祁连山地区大气水汽含量时空分布特征、降水转化率空间变化规律以及风场分布规律,并对比分析了中国西部不同地区降水转化率的变化趋势。结果表明：（1）1979-2016年祁连山地区大气水汽含量整体呈增加趋势,且季节变化明显。其中夏季是各层大气水汽含量最多的季节,高达329.24 mm,占多年平均大气水汽含量的48.1%。（2）近38 a来,祁连山地区的大气水汽含量呈东南多、西北少的空间分布,且随海拔的升高而逐渐减少,整层大气水汽主要集中在5 000 m以下。（3）祁连山地区的降水转化率从空间上表现出由东向西递减的趋势,说明该地区空中云水资源的开发潜力自东向西逐渐增强,空中云水资源的开发潜力区域差异明显;季风所携带的水汽对其影响区域的降水贡献率较高,西风所携带的水汽则对其影响区域的降水贡献率较低。（4）中国西部地区降水转化率呈向心式递减的趋势,且区域空间波动较大。