基于概率密度演化理论的结构抗震可靠性分析

运用随机过程的正交展开方法,将地震动加速度过程表示为由10个左右的独立随机变量所调制的确定性函数的线性组合形式。结合概率密度演化方法和等价极值事件的基本思想,研究了非线性结构的抗震可靠度分析问题。以具有滞回特性的非线性结构为例,对某一多自由度的剪切型框架结构进行了抗震可靠性分析。结果表明：按照复杂失效准则计算的结构抗震可靠度较之结构各层抗震可靠度均低。这一研究为基于概率密度函数的、精细化的抗震可靠度计算提供了新的途径。     

K8型单层球面网壳顶点竖向冲击下的冲击荷载特征及荷载简化模型

为简化网壳结构遭受冲击作用时复杂的接触分析过程,基于ANSYS/LS-DYNA建立了单层K8型球面网壳模型,并模拟其在不同冲击作用下的失效过程,辨别网壳的失效模式,并获取了冲击过程中的冲击力曲线。通过对网壳遭受竖向冲击荷载下的这些冲击力曲线特征进行分析,提出了简化的冲击荷载模型,并应用能量守恒定律和动量定理确定了模型相关参数。利用此冲击力模型对网壳结构在冲击荷载下的响应进行分析并与实体冲击物作用下的响应进行了对比,验证了该模型的准确性,应用该模型可以实现对网壳抗冲击性能的简单有效评估。     

冰雹冲击复合材料层合板失效模式分析与数值模拟

针对复合材料层合板结构,建立了冰雹冲击复合材料层合板的有限元模型,在充分考虑冲击过程中冰雹的流体特性下,给出了冰雹和复合材料层合板的材料模型和损伤准则,利用显式有限元分析工具LS-DYNA研究了不同冰雹冲击速度下复合材料层合板的临界破坏速度和破坏形式。结果表明,文中给出的冰雹、复合材料层合板的材料模型和损伤准则能够合理地再现冰雹冲击复合材料板的过程;复合材料层合板(AS4/8552)在冰雹高速冲击下首先发生的是基体开裂,当冰雹速度到达125m/s时,层合板上表面纤维发生断裂,但在整个冰雹冲击过程中层合板没有发生压缩失效     

基于谐波平衡法的摆线钢球行星传动等速输出机构非线性动态特性研究

为揭示摆线钢球行星传动等速输出机构的非线性动力学行为,建立考虑机构钢球数目、输入激励、啮合副啮合状态及啮合刚度的纯扭转强非线性动力学模型。将啮合副预紧函数表现为多项式的形式,将啮合副间隙函数表达为描述函数的形式,通过谐波平衡法将微分方程组转化为非线性代数方程组,利用MATLAB进行求解,得到系统的基频稳态响应。通过改变钢球数、轴向压缩量与啮合刚度,分析参数变化对系统非线性特性的影响。结果表明,预紧系统只有两阶频率激发共振,系统非线性程度随钢球数、啮合刚度和预紧量的增加而减弱,预紧量是影响系统非线性程度的主要因素;间隙系统激发共振频率的阶数与钢球数目有关,幅频响应曲线出现典型非线性特征,出现单边冲击与双边冲击现象。基于多项式函数的谐波平衡法为深入研究摆线钢球行星传动系统的动态特性提供了一种有效方法。     

基于Copula函数的并联结构系统可靠度分析

不完备概率信息条件下变量联合分布函数的确定及其对结构系统可靠度的影响还缺少系统地研究,该文目的在于研究表征变量间相关性的Copula函数对结构系统可靠度的影响规律。首先,简要介绍了变量联合分布函数构造的Copula函数方法。其次,提出了并联系统失效概率计算方法,并推导了相应的计算公式。最后以几种典型Copula函数为例研究了Copula函数类型对结构并联系统可靠度的影响规律。结果表明:表征变量间相关性的Copula函数类型对结构系统可靠度具有明显的影响,不同Copula函数计算的系统失效概率存在明显的差别,这种差别随构件失效概率的减小而增大。当并联系统的失效区域位于Copula函数尾部时,Copula函数的尾部相关性对系统可靠度有明显的影响,计算的失效概率比没有尾部相关性的Copula函数的失效概率大。当组成并联系统的两构件功能函数间正相关时,系统失效概率随相关系数的增大而增加;当构件功能函数间负相关时,系统失效概率随相关系数的增大而减小。此外,无论构件失效概率和变量间相关系数如何变化,Copula函数计算的失效概率都位于系统失效概率的上下限内。     

随机冲击影响的多部件退化设备寿命预测方法

针对随机冲击影响下的多部件串联退化设备,该文提出一种基于竞争失效的可靠性评估与寿命预测方法。首先,分别用线性随机过程描述设备各部件的连续退化过程,并使用复合泊松过程刻画因随机冲击导致部件退化水平累积的影响;其次,鉴于冲击导致的软、硬竞争失效过程,通过构建冲击造成的硬失效影响之间的相关性,得到设备的可靠度函数进而得到其寿命分布曲线;最后,数值仿真说明不同冲击参数对设备可靠性及寿命分布结果的影响。实例验证结果表明:该文所提方法能够提高多部件退化设备可靠性评估及寿命预测精度,具有一定的工程应用价值。     

基于Gamma退化过程的直升机主减速器行星架剩余寿命预测模型

鉴于Gamma过程具有平稳、独立增量等退化建模所需的属性,将其用于描述设备退化过程,并针对缺乏故障数据时难以进行剩余寿命预测的问题,利用设备运行中采集的表征其退化状态的大量间接状态参数和少量直接状态参数,建立了基于Gamma退化过程的剩余寿命预测模型;针对经验最大化算法中似然函数难以解析求解的问题,引入粒子滤波算法实现了模型参数估计;最后将模型应用于直升机主减速器行星架的剩余寿命预测,得到了不同时刻的预测结果及95%置信区间,验证了预测模型的有效性和准确性。     

钢筋混凝土柱式墩落石冲击抗剪性能可靠性分析

建立一种基于可靠度理论的落石冲击作用下钢筋混凝土柱式桥墩抗剪性能可靠性分析方法。在数值分析方法可靠性验证基础上通过非线性有限元分析生成了60组落石-墩柱接触力时间过程数值样本,考虑等冲量和等峰值建立落石撞击荷载的简化半波正弦模型;以Priestley公式描述墩柱抗剪能力,以剪力破坏参数定义墩柱损伤等级,通过蒙特卡洛随机抽样得到各撞击强度下结构失效概率,进而得到易损性曲线,进行了落石质量、撞击速度、墩柱截面面积、混凝土轴心抗压强度和箍筋配筋率参数敏感性分析。结果表明,数值模型参数能够有效模拟钢筋混凝土构件落石冲击响应;相比于全局平均等效静力,峰值等效静力方法更适用于落石冲击荷载等效静力简化;落石质量和撞击速度增加不同程度增加墩柱抗剪失效概率,混凝土轴心抗压强度提高、墩柱截面面积增加和箍筋加密一定程度上降低墩柱各个等级损伤发生概率。     

多种随机载荷下的结构动态可靠性计算

考虑随机载荷的加载形式分为动载荷累加,等幅且服从参数为 的泊松分布,和载荷随时间变化且不服从任何分布的三种情况,利用应力-强度干涉理论和随机过程理论分别建立了结构强度退化情况下的结构动态可靠性预测的三种计算公式。该公式形式简单、便于计算,且可获得结构的可靠度随时间变化的规律。最后通过算例说明文中计算公式的合理性,可行性,实用性。     

变质量提升系统钢丝绳轴向-扭转耦合振动特性

为了掌握变质量提升系统的振动特性,考虑提升钢丝绳的扭转运动并根据变质量非完整系统的Ham ilton原理建立了钢丝绳轴向和扭转耦合振动数学模型,并推导了变质量提升系统振型函数及确定轴向与扭转耦合振动频率的超越方程,给出了基于振型函数随系统质量变化及固定不变两种情况下变质量提升系统钢丝绳振动位移、张力和扭矩响应的求解方法。以矿井提升箕斗装载为工况进行应用分析,结果表明:两种求解方法得到的响应基本接近;提升容器装载过程是一个质量增大振动频率减小的过程,钢丝绳的动位移、张力和扭矩以波动形式逐渐增加。装载量较大时可采用振型函数固定的方法计算装载提升系统的频率和响应,冲击较大的载荷建议考虑提升容器的波动载荷,从而有助于提高计算效率和增强提升系统的安全可靠性。     

Reliability assessment models for dependent competing failure processes considering correlations between random shocks and degradations

This article develops reliability models for systems subject to two dependent competing failure processes, considering the correlation between additional damage size on degradation in soft failure process and stress magnitude of shock load in hard failure process, both of which are caused by the same kth random shock. The generalized correlative reliability assessment model based on copulas is proposed, which is then extended to three different shock patterns: (1) δ‐shock, (2) m‐shock, and (3) m‐run shocks. There are some statistical works to be introduced in reliability modeling, including data separation of total degradation amount, inferring the distribution of amount of aging continuous degradation at time t, and fitting copula to the specific correlation. The developed reliability models are demonstrated for an application example of a micro‐electro‐mechanical system.     

A Generalized Wiener Process Degradation Model with Two Transformed Time Scales

Degradation analysis is very useful in reliability assessment for complex systems and highly reliable products, because few or even no failures are expected in a reasonable life test span for them. In order to further our study on degradation analysis, a novel Wiener process degradation model subject to measurement errors is proposed. Two transformed time scales are involved to depict the statistical property evolution over time. A situation where one transformed time scale illustrates a linear form for the degradation trend and the other transformed time scale shows a generalized quadratic form for the degradation variance is discussed particularly. A one‐stage maximum likelihood estimation of parameters is constructed. The statistical inferences of this model are further discussed. The proposed method is illustrated and verified in a comprehensive simulation study and two real applications for indium tin oxide (ITO) conductive film and light emitting diode (LED). The Wiener process model with mixed effects is considered as a reference. Comparisons show that the proposed method is more general and flexible, and can provide reasonable results, even in considerably small sample size circumstance. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Time-based replacement policies for a fault tolerant system subject to degradation and two types of shocks

A single component nonrepairable system suffering from both an internal stochastic degradation process and external random shocks is investigated in this paper. More specifically, the Wiener process with a positive drift coefficient is introduced to describe the gradual deterioration and the arrival number of external shocks is counted with a nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP). Meanwhile, fault tolerant design is incorporated into the stochastically deterioration system so as to protect it from shock failures to some extent and is consummately addressed via a generalized m − δ shock model. From the actual engineering point of view, external shocks are typically classified into two distinct categories in this current research, that is, a minor shock (Type I shock) increasing the damage load on current degradation level and a traumatic shock (Type II shock) resulting in system catastrophic failure immediately. The closed-form expression of system survival function is derived analytically and is viewed as the generalization of existing reliability function for systems subject to dependent and competing failure processes. Based on which, two time-based maintenance (TBM) policies including an age replacement model and a block replacement model are scheduled, where the expected long-run cost rate (ELRCR) in each model is, respectively, optimized to seek the optimal replacement interval. In the illustrative example part, a subsea blowout preventer (BOP) control system is arranged to validate the theoretical results numerically. To compare which policy is more profitable under different conditions, the relative gain on optimal maintenance cost rate of the two TBM policies is presented.     

Reliability modeling for multistage systems subject to competing failure processes

In this paper, a novel multistage reliability model is provided as systems are often divided into many stages according to system degradation characteristics. Multistage hard failure (caused by random shock) process (MHFP) and multistage soft failure (caused by random shock and continuous degradation) process (MSFP) are introduced to describe the competing failure processes, where either the MSFP or MHFP would break down the system. The shock processes impact the system in three ways: (1) fatal load shocks cause hard failure immediately in the hard failure process; (2) time shocks cause a hard failure threshold changing; (3) damage load shocks cause degradation level increasing in the soft failure process. In this paper, a density function dispersion method is carried out to address the multistage reliability model, and the effectiveness of the proposed models is demonstrated by reliability analysis with the one-stage model. Finally, the multistage model is applied to a case study, the degradation process is divided into three stages, and the hard failure threshold can be transmitted twice. The proposed model can be applied in other multistage situations, and the calculation method can satisfy the accuracy requirements.     

Uncertain process–based reliability and maintenance modeling for systems under mutually dependent degradation and shock processes

For the systems that experience competing failure processes, an uncertain process–based degradation model is developed to describe the systems. The competing degradation process is composed of internal continuous degradation and external shocks, and the mutual dependence between them is considered. When the magnitude of the internal degradation exceeds the threshold, the soft failure occurs. While for the shock processes involving the randomness and the subjective information, we adopt the uncertain random renewal reward process to characterize it. Hard failure occurs when the damage of the shock process exceeds the strength threshold of the system. By using the belief reliability metric, the reliability of the degraded system is defined as the chance measure that neither soft failure nor hard failure occurs. And the effect of the degradation-shock dependence on the system reliability is performed by the parametric studies. Then the proposed degradation model is introduced into the preventive maintenance strategy to minimize the average maintenance cost. Using the microelectromechanical systems as an example, the effectiveness of the constructed degradation model and maintenance strategy is illustrated, and the proposed model can characterize the system degradation process in a superior way to the stochastic process model. These methods can be applied to other similar degraded systems and provide support for maintenance decisions.     

板级封装焊点的振动冲击加速失效方法研究

设计了一种针对板级微电子封装微焊点的振动冲击加速失效试验。对线路板施加定频正弦振动载荷,测量线路板应变值以标定PCB板级载荷水平,采用高速数据采集系统记录了振动载荷作用下的微焊点失效动态过程。结果表明：通过调节振动条件,采用板级振动试验可以获得近似板级跌落冲击试验的峰值形变,其峰值载荷作用频次高于跌落冲击试验;失效数据监测结果显示焊点在振动冲击试验中表现为疲劳失效特征。本加速失效试验在保持焊点失效特征的同时提高了试验效率,可作为跌落冲击条件下微焊点板级可靠性评估的备选试验方案。     

Reliability modeling for competing failure processes considering degradation rate variation under cumulative shock

Most systems experience both random shocks (hard failure) and performance degradation (soft failure) during service span, and the dependence of the two competing failure processes has become a key issue. In this study, a novel dependent competing failure processes (DCFPs) model with a varying degradation rate is proposed. The comprehensive impact of random shocks, especially the effect of cumulative shock, is reasonably considered. Specifically, a shock will cause an abrupt degradation damage, and when the cumulative shock reaches a predefined threshold, the degradation rate will change. An analytical reliability solution is derived under the concept of first hitting time (FHT). Besides, a one-step maximum likelihood estimation method is established by constructing a comprehensive likelihood function. Finally, the reasonability of the closed form reliability solution and the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed DCFPs modeling methodology are demonstrated by a comparative simulation study.     

System Effectiveness Simulation Model with Nonparametric Dependability

The simulation model presented here is a useful extension of WSEIAC's system's effectiveness methodology. This model accepts information regarding uncertainty with the parametric estimates of the system's attributes. One of the system's attributes, defined as “dependability,” requires Markovian State Transition Process. Time-dependent queueing process and renewal theory application for this dependability matrix are avoided by resorting to a simulation technique. This dependability matrix requires reliability and repairability estimates, which are obtained based on a non-parametric approach. This approach is based on a test program with a very realistic environment where n identical units are placed on test for a mission duration T. At the end, the number of failed units r is noted. Units failed are not replaced. Times of failed units before failure are unknown. Based on these, the dependability matrix is generated, which results ultimately in generating a sampling distribution of system effectiveness of each subsystem and the overall system. This process is coded in FORTRAN IV.     

基于状态空间模型的可靠性评估方法

基于设备性能退化特征的可靠性分析是可靠性技术研究重要方向之一,但当前许多研究是基于多样本进行分析,但针对单个设备的可靠性预测问题非常有限,为此本文提出基于状态空间模型的可靠性方法进行小样本预测。首先通过在线监测技术获得反映设备状态的信号,运用小波分析方法提取监测信号的小波包能量,选取趋势明显符合设备状态变化的相关频带能量作为设备退化指标。然后对这些特征指标进行滑动平均滤波处理,提高了退化特征的信噪比,将其作为状态空间模型的输入对模型参数进行估计,从而建立退化指标的状态空间预测模型,最后预测退化指标的概率分布并计算可靠度。结合滚动轴承试验数据和铣刀磨损数据验证方法的准确性和有效性,本文为小样本事件的可靠性预测提供一个有效方法。     

聚脲弹性体夹芯防爆罐抗爆性能研究

应用ANSYS/LS-DYNA有限元软件对三种防爆罐在1.2kgTNT爆炸载荷作用下的动态响应过程进行数值模拟。研究了无夹层、聚脲弹性体夹层和橡胶夹层防爆罐的抗爆性能。分析了不同夹层对防爆罐整体变形的影响,并分析了聚脲弹性体和橡胶夹层的吸能特性。通过聚脲弹性体夹层防爆罐在爆炸载荷作用下的变形试验研究,验证了数值计算结论的可靠性。结果表明,在相同爆炸载荷作用下,无论是在变形还是在能量吸收方面,聚脲弹性体夹层防爆罐都要优于无夹层防爆罐和橡胶夹层防爆罐;冲击波在聚脲弹性体传播过程中衰减幅度最大。