Extreme weather conditions correspond with localised vegetation death at Cradle Mountain,Tasmania

A chance observation of a drought‐related plant mortality event in early 2014 in a normally wet and cool alpine area was matched with local weather data providing a unique insight into this event. The observed plant death was largely indiscriminate in areas that were topographically predisposed to being susceptible to drought. The weather conditions surrounding this event included 5 weeks with very little rain, an extreme heatwave and subsequent brief periods where warm temperatures and dry air combined to produce highly evaporative conditions. Extreme weather conditions such as this are expected to occur with increasing frequency as a result of climate change. Observing and reporting on real‐world examples of how extreme weather events affect native vegetation is integral to improved climate change risk assessment and to inform future management actions.     

Extreme weather events threaten biodiversity and functions of river ecosystems: evidence from a meta-analysis

Both gradual and extreme weather changes trigger complex ecological responses in river ecosystems. It is still unclear to what extent trend or event effects alter biodiversity and functioning in river ecosystems, adding considerable uncertainty to predictions of their future dynamics. Using a comprehensive database of 71 published studies, we show that event – but not trend – effects associated with extreme changes in water flow and temperature substantially reduce species richness. Furthermore, event effects – particularly those affecting hydrological dynamics – on biodiversity and primary productivity were twice as high as impacts due to gradual changes. The synthesis of the available evidence reveals that event effects induce regime shifts in river ecosystems, particularly affecting organisms such as invertebrates. Among extreme weather events, dryness associated with flow interruption caused the largest effects on biota and ecosystem functions in rivers. Effects on ecosystem functions (primary production, organic matter decomposition and respiration) were asymmetric, with only primary production exhibiting a negative response to extreme weather events. Our meta-analysis highlights the disproportionate impact of event effects on river biodiversity and ecosystem functions, with implications for the long-term conservation and management of river ecosystems. However, few studies were available from tropical areas, and our conclusions therefore remain largely limited to temperate river systems. Further efforts need to be directed to assemble evidence of extreme events on river biodiversity and functioning.     

Influences of extreme weather,climate and pesticide use on invertebrates in cereal fields over 42 years

Cereal fields are central to balancing food production and environmental health in the face of climate change. Within them, invertebrates provide key ecosystem services. Using 42 years of monitoring data collected in southern England, we investigated the sensitivity and resilience of invertebrates in cereal fields to extreme weather events and examined the effect of long‐term changes in temperature, rainfall and pesticide use on invertebrate abundance. Of the 26 invertebrate groups examined, eleven proved sensitive to extreme weather events. Average abundance increased in hot/dry years and decreased in cold/wet years for Araneae, Cicadellidae, adult Heteroptera, Thysanoptera, Braconidae, Enicmus and Lathridiidae. The average abundance of Delphacidae, Cryptophagidae and Mycetophilidae increased in both hot/dry and cold/wet years relative to other years. The abundance of all 10 groups usually returned to their long‐term trend within a year after the extreme event. For five of them, sensitivity to cold/wet events was lowest (translating into higher abundances) at locations with a westerly aspect. Some long‐term trends in invertebrate abundance correlated with temperature and rainfall, indicating that climate change may affect them. However, pesticide use was more important in explaining the trends, suggesting that reduced pesticide use would mitigate the effects of climate change.     

Ecosystem feedbacks constrain the effect of day-to-day weather variability on land–atmosphere carbon exchange

Whole-ecosystem interactions and feedbacks constrain ecosystem responses to environmental change. The effects of these constraints on responses to climate trends and extreme weather events have been well studied. Here we examine how these constraints respond to changes in day-to-day weather variability without changing the long-term mean weather. Although environmental variability is recognized as a critical factor affecting ecological function, the effects of climate change on day-to-day weather variability and the resultant impacts on ecosystem function are still poorly understood. Changes in weather variability can alter the mean rates of individual ecological processes because many processes respond non-linearly to environmental drivers. We assessed how these individual-process responses to changes in day-to-day weather variability interact with one another at an ecosystem level. We examine responses of arctic tundra to changes in weather variability using stochastic simulations of daily temperature, precipitation, and light to drive a biogeochemical model. Changes in weather variability altered ecosystem carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus stocks and cycling rates in our model. However, responses of some processes (e.g., respiration) were inconsistent with expectations because ecosystem feedbacks can moderate, or even reverse, direct process responses to weather variability. More weather variability led to greater carbon losses from land to atmosphere; less variability led to higher carbon sequestration on land. The magnitude of modeled ecosystem response to weather variability was comparable to that predicted for the effects of climate mean trends by the end of the century.     

Protected areas buffer the Brazilian semi‐arid biome from climate change

The Caatinga is a botanically unique semi‐arid ecosystem in northeast Brazil whose vegetation is adapted to the periodic droughts that characterize this region. However, recent extreme droughts events caused by anthropogenic climate change have challenged its ecological resilience. Here, we evaluate how deforestation and protection status affect the response of the Caatinga vegetation to drought. Specifically, we compared vegetation responses to drought in natural and deforested areas as well as inside and outside protected areas, using a time‐series of satellite‐derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and climatic data for 2008–2013. We observed a strong effect of deforestation and land protection on overall vegetation productivity and in productivity dynamics in response to precipitation. Overall, deforested areas had significantly lower NDVI and delayed greening in response to precipitation. By contrast, strictly protected areas had higher productivity and considerable resilience to low levels of precipitation, when compared to sustainable use or unprotected areas. These results highlight the importance of protected areas in protecting ecosystem processes and native vegetation in the Caatinga against the negative effects of climate change and deforestation. Given the extremely small area of the Caatinga currently under strict protection, the creation of new conservation areas must be a priority to ensure the sustainability of ecological processes and to avoid further desertification.     

A review and meta‐analysis of the effects of climate change on Holarctic mountain and upland bird populations

Mountain regions are globally important areas for biodiversity but are subject to multiple human‐induced threats, including climate change, which has been more severe at higher elevations. We reviewed evidence for impacts of climate change on Holarctic mountain bird populations in terms of physiology, phenology, trophic interactions, demography and observed and projected distribution shifts, including effects of other factors that interact with climate change. We developed an objective classification of high‐elevation, mountain specialist and generalist species, based on the proportion of their breeding range occurring in mountain regions. Our review found evidence of responses of mountain bird populations to climate (extreme weather events, temperature, rainfall and snow) and environmental (i.e. land use) change, but we know little about either the underlying mechanisms or the synergistic effects of climate and land use. Long‐term studies assessing reproductive success or survival of mountain birds in relation to climate change were rare. Few studies have considered shifts in elevational distribution over time and a meta‐analysis did not find a consistent direction in elevation change. A meta‐analysis carried out on future projections of distribution shifts suggested that birds whose breeding distributions are largely restricted to mountains are likely to be more negatively impacted than other species. Adaptation responses to climate change rely mostly on managing and extending current protected areas for both species already present, and for expected colonizing species that are losing habitat and climate space at lower elevation. However, developing effective management actions requires an improvement in the current knowledge of mountain species ecology, in the quality of climate data and in understanding the role of interacting factors. Furthermore, the evidence was mostly based on widespread species rather than mountain specialists. Scientists should provide valuable tools to assess the status of mountain birds, for example through the development of a mountain bird population index, and policy‐makers should influence legislation to develop efficient agri‐environment schemes and forestry practices for mountain birds, as well as to regulate leisure activities at higher elevations.     

Extreme winter warming events more negatively impact small rather than large soil fauna: shift in community composition explained by traits not taxa

Extreme weather events can have negative impacts on species survival and community structure when surpassing lethal thresholds. Extreme winter warming events in the Arctic rapidly melt snow and expose ecosystems to unseasonably warm air (2–10 °C for 2–14 days), but returning to cold winter climate exposes the ecosystem to lower temperatures by the loss of insulating snow. Soil animals, which play an integral part in soil processes, may be very susceptible to such events depending on the intensity of soil warming and low temperatures following these events. We simulated week‐long extreme winter warming events – using infrared heating lamps, alone or with soil warming cables – for two consecutive years in a sub‐Arctic dwarf shrub heathland. Minimum temperatures were lower and freeze‐thaw cycles were 2–11 times more frequent in treatment plots compared with control plots. Following the second event, Acari populations decreased by 39%; primarily driven by declines of Prostigmata (69%) and the Mesostigmatic nymphs (74%). A community‐weighted vertical stratification shift occurred from smaller soil dwelling (eu‐edaphic) Collembola species dominance to larger litter dwelling (hemi‐edaphic) species dominance in the canopy‐with‐soil warming plots compared with controls. The most susceptible groups to these winter warming events were the smallest individuals (Prostigmata and eu‐edaphic Collembola). This was not apparent from abundance data at the Collembola taxon level, indicating that life forms and species traits play a major role in community assembly following extreme events. The observed shift in soil community can cascade down to the micro‐flora affecting plant productivity and mineralization rates. Short‐term extreme weather events have the potential to shift community composition through trait composition with potentially large consequences for ecosystem development.     

Effects of Extreme Weather Events on Plant Productivity and Tissue Die-Back are Modified by Community Composition

Extreme weather events are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude due to climate change. Their effects on vegetation are widely unknown. Here, experimental grassland and heath communities in Central Europe were exposed either to a simulated single drought or to a prolonged heavy rainfall event. The magnitude of manipulations imitated the local 100-year weather extreme according to extreme value statistics. Overall productivity of both plant communities remained stable in the face of drought and heavy rainfall, despite significant effects on tissue die-back. Grassland communities were more resistant against the extreme weather events than heath communities. Furthermore, effects of extreme weather events on community tissue die-back were modified by functional diversity, even though conclusiveness in this part is limited by the fact that only one species composition was available per diversity level within this case study. More diverse grassland communities exhibited less tissue die-back than less complex grassland communities. On the other side, more diverse heath communities were more vulnerable to extreme weather events compared to less complex heath communities. Furthermore, legumes did not effectively contribute to the buffering against extreme weather events in both vegetation types. Tissue die-back proved a strong stress response in plant communities exposed to 100-year extreme weather events, even though one important ecosystem function, namely productivity, remained surprisingly stable in this experiment. Theories and concepts on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning (insurance hypothesis, redundancy hypothesis) may have to be revisited when extreme weather conditions are considered.     

A quantitative analysis on the effects of critical factors limiting the effectiveness of species conservation in future time

The effectiveness of conservation plans depends on environmental, ecological, and socioeconomic factors. Global change makes conservation decisions even more challenging. Among others, the components of most concern in modern‐day conservation assessments are as follows: the magnitude of climate and land‐use changes; species dispersal abilities; competition with harmful socioeconomic activities for land use; the number of threatened species to consider; and, relatedly, the available budget to act. Here, we provide a unified framework that quantifies the relative effects of those factors on conservation. We conducted an area‐scheduling work plan in order to identify sets of areas along time in which the persistence expectancies of species are optimized. The approach was illustrated using data of potential distribution of ten nonvolant mammal species in Iberia Peninsula from current time up to 2080. Analyses were conducted considering possible setups among the factors that are likely to critically impact conservation success: three climate/land‐use scenarios; four species’ dispersal kernel curves; six land‐use layer types; and two planning designs, in which assessments were made independently for each species, or joining all species in a single plan. We identified areas for an array of investments levels capable to circumvent the spatial conflicts with socioeconomic activities. The effect of each factor on the estimated species persistence scores was assessed using linear mixed models. Our results evidence that conservation success is highly reliant on the resources available to abate land‐use conflicts. Nonetheless, under the same investment levels, planning design and climate change were the factors that most shaped species persistence scores. The persistence of five species was especially affected by the sole effect of planning design and consequently, larger conservation investments may retard climatic debts. For three species, the negative effects of a changing climate and of multiple‐species planning designs added up, making these species especially at risk. Integrated assessments of the factors most likely to limit species persistence are pivotal to achieve effectiveness.     

Diverse water quality responses to extreme climate events: an introduction

We synthesize and summarize main findings from a special issue examining the origins, evolution, and resilience of diverse water quality responses to extreme climate events resulting from a Chapman Conference of the American Geophysical Union (AGU). Origins refer to sequences of interactive disturbances and antecedent conditions that influence diversification of water quality responses to extreme events. Evolution refers to the amplification, intensification, and persistence of water quality signals across space and time in watersheds. Resilience refers to strategies for managing and minimizing extreme water quality impacts and ecosystem recovery. The contributions of this special issue, taken together, highlight the following: (1) there is diversification in the origins of water quality responses to extreme climate events based on the intensity, duration, and magnitude of the event mediated by previous historical conditions; (2) interactions between climate variability and watershed disturbances (e.g., channelization of river networks, land use change, and deforestation) amplify water quality ‘pulses,’ which can manifest as large changes in chemical concentrations and fluxes over relatively short time periods. In the context of the evolution of water quality responses, results highlight: (3) there are high intensity and long-term climate events, which can generate unique sequences in water quality, which have differential impacts on persistence of water quality problems and ecosystem recovery rates; and (4) ‘chemical cocktails’ or novel mixtures of elements and compounds are transported and transformed during extreme climate events. The main findings regarding resilience to extreme climate events are that: (5) river restoration strategies for reducing pollution from extreme events can be improved by preserving and restoring floodplains, wetlands, and oxbow ponds, which enhance hydrologic and biogeochemical retention, and lengthen the distribution of hydrologic residence times; and (6) the biogeochemical capacity for stream and river ecosystems to retain and transform pollution from landscapes can become “saturated” during floods unless watershed pollution sources are reduced. Finally, the unpredictable occurrence of extreme climate events argues for wider deployment of high-frequency, in situ sensors for monitoring, managing, and modeling diverse water quality responses. These sensors can be used to develop robust proxies for chemical cocktails, detect water quality violations following extreme climate events, and effectively trace the trajectory of water quality recovery in response to managing ecosystem resilience.     

The legacy of past human land use in current patterns of mammal distribution

Multiple environmental factors are known to shape species distributions at the global scale, including climate and topography, but understanding current extents of occurrence and biodiversity patterns requires considering anthropogenic factors as well. Numerous studies have explored the relationship between contemporary human activities and different biodiversity metrics, but the influence of past activities, such as land‐use, remains poorly understood despite being one of the oldest human impacts. Here we evaluate the role of past land‐use modifications in the current distribution and conservation status of mammals worldwide using spatial data characterizing human land use from ca BC 6000 to ca AD 2000. First, we applied a clustering method that revealed three generalized past human land‐use trajectories that represent low‐, recently‐ and steadily‐used areas widely represented across the globe. Second, we fitted boosted regression trees to predict total and threatened mammalian richness, globally and within trajectory‐clusters, testing the role of environmental factors and multiple human land‐use metrics reflecting: total used area at different time spans, rates of land‐use change, and the occurrence of remarkable land‐use shifts. Environmental factors were identified as the main correlates of current mammalian richness, but several proposed metrics of past land‐use were also relevant predictors. Overall, these results highlight the likely existence of a land‐use legacy in some regions of the world that has influenced the distribution of extant mammals, particularly of those currently classified as threatened. Even if we cannot change that legacy, our results show that we need to account for past human impacts to understand present biodiversity patterns and, arguably, to guide future actions.     

Extreme temperature events alter demographic rates,relative fitness,and community structure

The frequency and magnitude of extreme events are predicted to increase under future climate change. Despite recent advancements, we still lack a detailed understanding of how changes in the frequency and amplitude of extreme climate events are linked to the temporal and spatial structure of natural communities. To answer this question, we used a combination of laboratory experiments, field experiments, and analysis of multi‐year field observations to reveal the effects of extreme high temperature events on the demographic rates and relative dominance of three co‐occurrence aphid species which differ in their transmission efficiency of different agricultural pathogens. We then linked the geographical shift in their relative dominance to frequent extreme high temperatures through a meta‐analysis. We found that both frequency and amplitude of extreme high temperatures altered demographic rates of species. However, these effects were species‐specific. Increasing the frequency and amplitude of extreme temperature events altered which species had the highest fitness. Importantly, this change in relative fitness of species was consistent with significant changes in the relative dominance of species in natural communities in a 1 year long field heating experiment and 6 year long field survey of natural populations. Finally, at a global spatial scale, we found the same relationship between relative abundance of species and frequency of extreme temperatures. Together, our results indicate that changes in frequency and amplitude of extreme high temperatures can alter the temporal and spatial structure of natural communities, and that these changes are driven by asymmetric effects of high temperatures on the demographic rates and fitness of species. They also highlight the importance of understanding how extreme events affect the life‐history of species for predicting the impacts of climate change at the individual and community level, and emphasize the importance of using a broad range of approaches when studying climate change.     

Global environmental change effects on ecosystems: the importance of land‐use legacies

One of the major challenges in ecology is to predict how multiple global environmental changes will affect future ecosystem patterns (e.g. plant community composition) and processes (e.g. nutrient cycling). Here, we highlight arguments for the necessary inclusion of land‐use legacies in this endeavour. Alterations in resources and conditions engendered by previous land use, together with influences on plant community processes such as dispersal, selection, drift and speciation, have steered communities and ecosystem functions onto trajectories of change. These trajectories may be modulated by contemporary environmental changes such as climate warming and nitrogen deposition. We performed a literature review which suggests that these potential interactions have rarely been investigated. This crucial oversight is potentially due to an assumption that knowledge of the contemporary state allows accurate projection into the future. Lessons from other complex dynamic systems, and the recent recognition of the importance of previous conditions in explaining contemporary and future ecosystem properties, demand the testing of this assumption. Vegetation resurvey databases across gradients of land use and environmental change, complemented by rigorous experiments, offer a means to test for interactions between land‐use legacies and multiple environmental changes. Implementing these tests in the context of a trait‐based framework will allow biologists to synthesize compositional and functional ecosystem responses. This will further our understanding of the importance of land‐use legacies in determining future ecosystem properties, and soundly inform conservation and restoration management actions.     

Soil biotic processes remain remarkably stable after 100-year extreme weather events in experimental grassland and heath

Climate change will increase the recurrence of extreme weather events such as drought and heavy rainfall. Evidence suggests that extreme weather events pose threats to ecosystem functioning, particularly to nutrient cycling and biomass production. These ecosystem functions depend strongly on below-ground biotic processes, including the activity and interactions among plants, soil fauna, and micro-organisms. Here, experimental grassland and heath communities of three phytodiversity levels were exposed either to a simulated single drought or to a heavy rainfall event. Both weather manipulations were repeated for two consecutive years. The magnitude of manipulations imitated the local 100-year extreme weather event. Heavy rainfall events increased below-ground plant biomass and stimulated soil enzyme activities as well as decomposition rates for both plant communities. In contrast, extreme drought did not reduce below-ground plant biomass and root length, soil enzyme activities, and cellulose decomposition rate. The low responsiveness of the measured ecosystem properties in face of the applied weather manipulations rendered the detection of significant interactions between weather events and phytodiversity impossible. Our data indicate on the one hand the close interaction between below ground plant parameters and microbial turnover processes in soil; on the other hand it shows that the plant–soil system can buffer against extreme drought events, at last for the period of investigation.     

Impacts of climate change on national biodiversity population trends

Climate change has had well‐documented impacts on the distribution and phenology of species across many taxa, but impacts on species’ abundance, which relates closely to extinction risk and ecosystem function, have not been assessed across taxa. In the most comprehensive multi‐taxa comparison to date, we modelled variation in national population indices of 501 mammal, bird, aphid, butterfly and moth species as a function of annual variation in weather variables, which through time allowed us to identify a component of species’ population growth that can be associated with post‐1970s climate trends. We found evidence that these climate trends have significantly affected population trends of 15.8% of species, including eight with extreme (> 30% decline per decade) negative trends consistent with detrimental impacts of climate change. The modelled effect of climate change could explain 48% of the significant across‐species population decline in moths and 63% of the population increase in winged aphids. The other taxa did not have significant across‐species population trends or consistent climate change responses. Population declines in species of conservation concern were linked to both climatic and non‐climatic factors respectively accounting for 42 and 58% of the decline. Evident differential impacts of climate change between trophic levels may signal the potential for future ecosystem disruption. Climate change has therefore already driven large‐scale population changes of some species, had significant impacts on the overall abundance of some key invertebrate groups and may already have altered biological communities and ecosystems in Great Britain.     

Assessing ecosystem threats from global and regional change: hierarchical modeling of risk to sagebrush ecosystems from climate change, land use and invasive species in Nevada, USA

Global change poses significant challenges for ecosystem conservation. At regional scales, climate change may lead to extensive shifts in species distributions and widespread extirpations or extinctions. At landscape scales, land use and invasive species disrupt ecosystem function and reduce species richness. However, a lack of spatially explicit models of risk to ecosystems makes it difficult for science to inform conservation planning and land management. Here, I model risk to sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) ecosystems in the state of Nevada, USA from climate change, land use/land cover change, and species invasion. Risk from climate change is based on an ensemble of 10 atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) projections applied to two bioclimatic envelope models (Mahalanobis distance and Maxent). Risk from land use is based on the distribution of roads, agriculture, and powerlines, and on the spatial relationships between land use and probability of cheatgrass Bromus tectorum invasion in Nevada. Risk from land cover change is based on probability and extent of pinyon-juniper ( Pinus monophylla; Juniperus spp.) woodland expansion. Climate change is most likely to negatively impact sagebrush ecosystems at the edges of its current range, particularly in southern Nevada, southern Utah, and eastern Washington. Risk from land use and woodland expansion is pervasive throughout Nevada, while cheatgrass invasion is most problematic in the northern part of the state. Cumulatively, these changes pose major challenges for conservation of sagebrush and sagebrush obligate species. This type of comprehensive assessment of ecosystem risk provides managers with spatially explicit tools important for conservation planning.     

Climatic and biotic extreme events moderate long‐term responses of above‐ and belowground sub‐Arctic heathland communities to climate change

Climate change impacts are not uniform across the Arctic region because interacting factors causes large variations in local ecosystem change. Extreme climatic events and population cycles of herbivores occur simultaneously against a background of gradual climate warming trends and can redirect ecosystem change along routes that are difficult to predict. Here, we present the results from sub‐Arctic heath vegetation and its belowground micro‐arthropod community in response to the two main drivers of vegetation damage in this region: extreme winter warming events and subsequent outbreaks of the defoliating autumnal moth caterpillar (Epirrita autumnata). Evergreen dwarf shrub biomass decreased (30%) following extreme winter warming events and again by moth caterpillar grazing. Deciduous shrubs that were previously exposed to an extreme winter warming event were not affected by the moth caterpillar grazing, while those that were not exposed to warming events (control plots) showed reduced (23%) biomass from grazing. Cryptogam cover increased irrespective of grazing or winter warming events. Micro‐arthropods declined (46%) following winter warming but did not respond to changes in plant community. Extreme winter warming and caterpillar grazing suppressed the CO₂ fluxes of the ecosystem. Evergreen dwarf shrubs are disadvantaged in a future sub‐Arctic with more stochastic climatic and biotic events. Given that summer warming may further benefit deciduous over evergreen shrubs, event and trend climate change may both act against evergreen shrubs and the ecosystem functions they provide. This is of particular concern given that Arctic heath vegetation is typically dominated by evergreen shrubs. Other components of the vegetation showed variable responses to abiotic and biotic events, and their interaction indicates that sub‐Arctic vegetation response to multiple pressures is not easy to predict from single‐factor responses. Therefore, while biotic and climatic events may have clear impacts, more work is needed to understand their net effect on Arctic ecosystems.     

Anuran abundance and persistence in agricultural landscapes during a climatic extreme

Climate change in concert with habitat loss and degradation are major threats to global biodiversity. As part of climate change, the occurrence of extreme climatic events is expected to increase. Agricultural intensification has led to the increased homogeneity of agricultural habitats and declines in farmland species diversity. We investigated the abundance of common frog Rana temporaria populations in boreal farmlands in relation to multiple scales of landscape structure during years 2002–2003, and the effect of habitat structure on R. temporaria population persistence during a severe drought. On average, 113 and 24 egg clutches were observed per site in years 2002 and 2003, respectively. This dramatic decline was synchronized over the entire study area (ca. 320 km²), with some local variations. Population persistence was higher in sites where ground water levels decreased less but it was also positively correlated with the heterogeneity of the adjacent landscape. Under normal weather conditions, local habitat characteristics had a dominating role on R. temporaria population abundance, as it was positively correlated with the amount of ditches and ponds within the study sites. After the drought, however, population abundance was related to landscape and regional level factors. The results indicate that landscape homogenization can have negative effects on population persistence during climate change. They also show that the scale at which landscape characteristics affect populations can be strongly dependent of processes functioning at large scales, such as weather. In summary, heterogeneous landscapes may lower the risk of regional amphibian population declines under extreme weather perturbations and serve as sources of recovery in postdisturbance recovery phases. Thus, maintaining such areas should be promoted in long-term biodiversity conservation.     

Impact of extreme flooding on the annual survival of a riparian predator,the Brown Dipper Cinclus pallasii

The predicted effects of global climate change include altered patterns of precipitation and more extreme weather events, leading to an increase in the severity and frequency of episodic disturbances such as floods. These changes may affect lotic prey communities, which could indirectly affect aquatic and riparian predators through trophic linkages. We assessed whether extreme flooding affected the apparent survival of Brown Dippers Cinclus pallasii in Taiwan using mark–resighting data and climate data. The probability of survival was negatively correlated with the degree of flooding, and survival of first‐year birds was lower than that of adults. Previous analyses of this system suggest that the main, indirect mechanism driving such patterns is the impact of flood disturbance on the aquatic invertebrate prey of Brown Dippers. Our results show that changes in prey communities induced by flooding have the potential to affect predators in aquatic and adjacent riparian habitats. This highlights the importance of considering cross‐ecosystem linkages when identifying conservation and management goals in the face of future climate uncertainty.     

Solutions for ecosystem‐level protection of ocean systems under climate change

The Paris Conference of Parties (COP21) agreement renewed momentum for action against climate change, creating the space for solutions for conservation of the ocean addressing two of its largest threats: climate change and ocean acidification (CCOA). Recent arguments that ocean policies disregard a mature conservation research field and that protected areas cannot address climate change may be oversimplistic at this time when dynamic solutions for the management of changing oceans are needed. We propose a novel approach, based on spatial meta‐analysis of climate impact models, to improve the positioning of marine protected areas to limit CCOA impacts. We do this by estimating the vulnerability of ocean ecosystems to CCOA in a spatially explicit manner and then co‐mapping human activities such as the placement of renewable energy developments and the distribution of marine protected areas. We test this approach in the NE Atlantic considering also how CCOA impacts the base of the food web which supports protected species, an aspect often neglected in conservation studies. We found that, in this case, current regional conservation plans protect areas with low ecosystem‐level vulnerability to CCOA, but disregard how species may redistribute to new, suitable and productive habitats. Under current plans, these areas remain open to commercial extraction and other uses. Here, and worldwide, ocean conservation strategies under CCOA must recognize the long‐term importance of these habitat refuges, and studies such as this one are needed to identify them. Protecting these areas creates adaptive, climate‐ready and ecosystem‐level policy options for conservation, suitable for changing oceans.