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1.
The management of natural hazards occurring over a territory entails two main phases: a preoperational —or pre-event—phase, whose objective is to relocate resources closer to sites characterized by the highest hazard, and an operational —during the event—phase, whose objective is to manage in real time the available resources by allocating them to sites where their intervention is needed. Obviously, the two phases are closely related, and demand a unified and integrated treatment. This work presents a unifying framework that integrates various decisional problems arising in the management of different kinds of natural hazards. The proposed approach, which is based on a mathematical programming formulation, can support the decisionmakers in the optimal resource allocation before (preoperational phase) and during (operational phase) an emergency due to natural hazard events. Different alternatives of modeling the resources and the territory are proposed and discussed according to their appropriateness in the preoperational and operational phases. The proposed approach can be applied to the management of any natural hazard and, from an integration perspective, may be particularly useful for risk management in civil protection operations. An application related to the management of wildfire hazard is presented. 相似文献
2.
Infrastructure development of volatile regions is a significant investment by international government and nongovernment organizations, with attendant requirements for risk management. Global development banks may be tasked to manage these investments and provide a channel between donors and borrowers. Moreover, various stakeholders from the private sector, local and international agencies, and the military can be engaged in conception, planning, and implementation of constituent projects. Emergent and future conditions of military conflict, politics, economics, technology, environment, behaviors, institutions, and society that stress infrastructure development are prevalent, and funding mechanisms are vulnerable to fraud, waste, and abuse. This article will apply resilience analytics with scenario‐based preferences to identify the stressors that most influence a prioritization of initiatives in the electric power sector of Afghanistan. The resilience in this article is conceived in terms of the degree of disruption of priorities when stressors influence the preferences of stakeholders, and ultimately a prioritization of initiatives. The ancillary results include an understanding of which initiatives contribute most and least across strategic criteria and which criteria have the most impact for the analysis. The article concludes with recommendations for risk monitoring and risk management of the portfolio of stressors through the life cycle and horizon of grid capacity expansion. 相似文献
3.
The estimated cost of fire in the United States is about $329 billion a year, yet there are gaps in the literature to measure the effectiveness of investment and to allocate resources optimally in fire protection. This article fills these gaps by creating data‐driven empirical and theoretical models to study the effectiveness of nationwide fire protection investment in reducing economic and human losses. The regression between investment and loss vulnerability shows high R2 values (≈0.93). This article also contributes to the literature by modeling strategic (national‐level or state‐level) resource allocation (RA) for fire protection with equity‐efficiency trade‐off considerations, while existing literature focuses on operational‐level RA. This model and its numerical analyses provide techniques and insights to aid the strategic decision‐making process. The results from this model are used to calculate fire risk scores for various geographic regions, which can be used as an indicator of fire risk. A case study of federal fire grant allocation is used to validate and show the utility of the optimal RA model. The results also identify potential underinvestment and overinvestment in fire protection in certain regions. This article presents scenarios in which the model presented outperforms the existing RA scheme, when compared in terms of the correlation of resources allocated with actual number of fire incidents. This article provides some novel insights to policymakers and analysts in fire protection and safety that would help in mitigating economic costs and saving lives. 相似文献
4.
With the rapid development of industry in China, the number of establishments that are proposed or under construction is increasing year by year, and many are industries that handle flammable, explosive, toxic, harmful, and dangerous substances. Accidents such as fire, explosion, and toxic diffusion inevitably happen. Accidents resulting from these major hazards in cities cause a large number of casualties and property losses. It is increasingly important to analyze the risk of major hazards in cities realistically and to suitably plan and utilize the surrounding land based on the risk analysis results, thereby reducing the hazards. A theoretical system for risk assessment of major hazards in cities is proposed in this article, and the major hazard risk for the entire city is analyzed quantitatively. Risks of various major accidents are considered together, superposition effect is analyzed, individual risk contours of the entire city are drawn out, and the level of risk in the city is assessed using \"as low as reasonably practicable\" guidelines. After the entire city's individual risk distribution is obtained, risk zones are divided according to corresponding individual risk value of HSE, and land-use planning suggestions are proposed. Finally, a city in China is used as an example to illustrate the risk assessment process of the city's major hazard and its application in urban land-use planning. The proposed method has a certain theoretical and practical significance in establishing and improving risk analysis of major hazard and urban land-use planning. On the one hand, major urban public risk is avoided; further, the land is utilized in the best possible way in order to obtain the maximum benefit from its use. 相似文献
5.
Through the analysis of semi-structured interviews held with key actors involved in the planning of the Greater Montreal region, we seek to understand the conditions that could lead to the establishment of a green infrastructure for the city. This article first describes the region's environmental and political context and then analyzes the opportunities, constraints, advantages and disadvantages in the implementation of this type of project. We conclude that experts favor an approach leading to ecological connectivity, but they underline several obstacles that could hinder its implementation. 相似文献
6.
David Rios Insua Aitor Couce‐Vieira Jose A. Rubio Wolter Pieters Katsiaryna Labunets Daniel G. Rasines 《Risk analysis》2021,41(1):16-36
Risk analysis is an essential methodology for cybersecurity as it allows organizations to deal with cyber threats potentially affecting them, prioritize the defense of their assets, and decide what security controls should be implemented. Many risk analysis methods are present in cybersecurity models, compliance frameworks, and international standards. However, most of them employ risk matrices, which suffer shortcomings that may lead to suboptimal resource allocations. We propose a comprehensive framework for cybersecurity risk analysis, covering the presence of both intentional and nonintentional threats and the use of insurance as part of the security portfolio. A simplified case study illustrates the proposed framework, serving as template for more complex problems. 相似文献
7.
Since independence, the political and planning processes in Ghana have evolved to reflect modern development dynamics. The discovery of oil in commercial quantities was yet another opportunity to transform the country through consolidated development plans and fast track the rate of inclusive development. The recent development framework, Ghana Shared Growth and Development Agenda (GSGDA I AND II) coincided with the initial stages of oil production. This paper seeks to: (i) ascertain the extent to which the revenue accruing from oil production has been used to boost human and infrastructural development; (ii) the contribution of oil revenue in closing funding gap present in the Ghana Shared Growth and Development Agenda (GSGDA I and II), and (iii) the extent to which expenditure from oil revenues were in line with the GGSGDA (I and II) 2010–2017. Regarding the first objective, the paper finds that oil investment was significant in the rail (72%) and housing (75%) sectors; medium in the road sector (17.6%) but poor in water (3%), ports development (0%) and educational (2%) sectors. Overall, the average contribution to core infrastructural development is found to be around 8%. Regarding the second objective, the paper finds that the contribution of oil revenue to bridging the funding gap in critical infrastructure is only 6.7%. Concerning the third objective, the research finds some mismatch between the use of oil revenue and the objectives of the GSGDA (I and II). The study therefore, recommends fiscal discipline, investment guidelines, proper budget execution, and prudent spending of oil revenues. 相似文献
8.
This article presents an asset‐level security risk management framework to assist stakeholders of critical assets with allocating limited budgets for enhancing their safety and security against terrorist attack. The proposed framework models the security system of an asset, considers various threat scenarios, and models the sequential decision framework of attackers during the attack. Its novel contributions are the introduction of the notion of partial neutralization of attackers by defenders, estimation of total loss from successful, partially successful, and unsuccessful actions of attackers at various stages of an attack, and inclusion of the effects of these losses on the choices made by terrorists at various stages of the attack. The application of the proposed method is demonstrated in an example dealing with security risk management of a U.S. commercial airport, in which a set of plausible threat scenarios and risk mitigation options are considered. It is found that a combination of providing blast‐resistant cargo containers and a video surveillance system on the airport perimeter fence is the best option based on minimum expected life‐cycle cost considering a 10‐year service period. 相似文献
9.
Rachael M. Jones Yoshifumi Masago Timothy Bartrand Charles N. Haas Mark Nicas Joan B. Rose 《Risk analysis》2009,29(3):355-365
Quantitative microbial risk assessment was used to predict the likelihood and spatial organization of Mycobacterium tuberculosis ( Mtb ) transmission in a commercial aircraft. Passenger exposure was predicted via a multizone Markov model in four scenarios: seated or moving infectious passengers and with or without filtration of recirculated cabin air. The traditional exponential ( k = 1) and a new exponential ( k = 0.0218) dose-response function were used to compute infection risk. Emission variability was included by Monte Carlo simulation. Infection risks were higher nearer and aft of the source; steady state airborne concentration levels were not attained. Expected incidence was low to moderate, with the central 95% ranging from 10−6 to 10−1 per 169 passengers in the four scenarios. Emission rates used were low compared to measurements from active TB patients in wards, thus a \"superspreader\" emitting 44 quanta/h could produce 6.2 cases or more under these scenarios. Use of respiratory protection by the infectious source and/or susceptible passengers reduced infection incidence up to one order of magnitude. 相似文献
10.
Environmental impact assessment (EIA) procedures required in the United States and many other countries are often highlighted as a major hindrance to timely and efficient deployment of critical infrastructure projects. Under the U.S. National Environmental Policy Act, a more extensive environmental impact statement (EIS) review can take several more years and cost much more than a succinct environmental assessment (EA). This not only affects the project in question, but also likely informs how—or whether—additional projects are pursued. Thus, understanding key predictors of the EA versus EIS choice sheds light on supply-side considerations affecting infrastructure deficits. Using the case of NEPA reviews conducted for 244 transmission line projects between 2005 and 2018 by two U.S. federal agencies in the western United States, the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and Department of Energy (DOE), this addresses the following question: What project features most predict whether EA or an EIS is used to assess a transmission line project? Drawing upon NEPA assessment guidance and agency NEPA records, we use a regression classification tree to analyze how protocols and project attributes relate to assessment choice. The result is essentially a null finding: transmission line length is by far the most important predictor of whether a project receives an extensive EIS or a shorter EA, with little predictive value provided by other attributes. While absolute project size undoubtedly influences impacts, the lack of further differentiation in what predicts use of EISs versus EAs suggests assessment does not simply respond to project details but also shapes proposal and design choices beforehand. 相似文献
11.
Vicki M. Bier Naraphorn Haphuriwat Jaime Menoyo Rae Zimmerman Alison M. Culpen 《Risk analysis》2008,28(3):763-770
This article describes the results of applying a rigorous computational model to the problem of the optimal defensive resource allocation among potential terrorist targets. In particular, our study explores how the optimal budget allocation depends on the cost effectiveness of security investments, the defender's valuations of the various targets, and the extent of the defender's uncertainty about the attacker's target valuations. We use expected property damage, expected fatalities, and two metrics of critical infrastructure (airports and bridges) as our measures of target attractiveness. Our results show that the cost effectiveness of security investment has a large impact on the optimal budget allocation. Also, different measures of target attractiveness yield different optimal budget allocations, emphasizing the importance of developing more realistic terrorist objective functions for use in budget allocation decisions for homeland security. 相似文献
12.
Mark D. Abkowitz 《Risk analysis》2011,31(7):1133-1140
Over the past decade, terrorism risk has become a prominent consideration in protecting the well‐being of individuals and organizations. More recently, there has been interest in not only quantifying terrorism risk, but also placing it in the context of an all‐hazards environment in which consideration is given to accidents and natural hazards, as well as intentional acts. This article discusses the development of a regional terrorism risk assessment model designed for this purpose. The approach taken is to model terrorism risk as a dependent variable, expressed in expected annual monetary terms, as a function of attributes of population concentration and critical infrastructure. This allows for an assessment of regional terrorism risk in and of itself, as well as in relation to man‐made accident and natural hazard risks, so that mitigation resources can be allocated in an effective manner. The adopted methodology incorporates elements of two terrorism risk modeling approaches (event‐based models and risk indicators), producing results that can be utilized at various jurisdictional levels. The validity, strengths, and limitations of the model are discussed in the context of a case study application within the United States. 相似文献
13.
H. W. Lewis 《Risk analysis》1988,8(3):411-413
There is a substantial variation in the quality of operators of nuclear power plants, and it is therefore widely believed that regulatory attention is best directed at the worst performers. What is not immediately apparent is a strategy for the optimal allocation of regulatory resources. We study a simple model for this problem, and find that, under reasonable assumptions, the optimal allocation does indeed behave as expected. The proper degree of unbalance, however, depends upon the effectiveness of regulation itself and on the variation among performers, ineffective regulation leading to more concentration on the bottom of the list and a net reduction in attention to the top. Not surprisingly, the optimal strategy is to press toward parity in risk, even if it means allowing some plants to become riskier. This strategy leads to a minimized net probability of accident anywhere. 相似文献
14.
Robert G. Bea 《Risk analysis》2002,22(1):29-45
Today, there is a worldwide infrastructure of offshore structure systems that include fixed, floating, and mobile platforms, pipelines, and ships. Background on current and future trends in development of comprehensive programs to help improve the quality and reliability of offshore structure systems are discussed. A combination of proactive, reactive, and interactive risk assessment and management approaches have been developed and applied. Two risk assessment and management instruments are detailed in this article: a qualitative Quality Management Assessment System (QMAS), and a quantitative System Risk Analysis System (SYRAS). Application of QMAS to produce human and organizational performance shaping factors that are used as input to SYRAS is discussed. 相似文献
15.
Shuming Ma Shushen Zhang Chen Yu Hongbo Zheng Guobao Song Henry Musoke Semakula Yingying Chai 《Risk analysis》2015,35(8):1503-1519
Major accident risks posed by chemical hazards have raised major social concerns in today's China. Land‐use planning has been adopted by many countries as one of the essential elements for accident prevention. This article aims at proposing a method to assess major accident risks to support land‐use planning in the vicinity of chemical installations. This method is based on the definition of risk by the Accidental Risk Assessment Methodology for IndustrieS (ARAMIS) project and it is an expansion application of severity and vulnerability assessment tools. The severity and vulnerability indexes from the ARAMIS methodology are employed to assess both the severity and vulnerability levels, respectively. A risk matrix is devised to support risk ranking and compatibility checking. The method consists of four main steps and is presented in geographical information‐system‐based maps. As an illustration, the proposed method is applied in Dagushan Peninsula, China. The case study indicated that the method could not only aid risk regulations on existing land‐use planning, but also support future land‐use planning by offering alternatives or influencing the plans at the development stage, and thus further enhance the roles and influence of land‐use planning in the accident prevention activities in China. 相似文献
16.
Pete Wyatt 《Planning Practice and Research》2017,32(2):152-170
In England, Since the 1970s, a system of negotiated project-specific agreements between local planning authorities and developers/landowners has evolved into the sole mechanism by which part of land value uplift ‘released’ by the grant of planning permission is captured by government. In 2010, in an attempt to simplify and speed up the planning process – negotiated planning agreements were regarded as time-consuming and a brake on development – the Community Infrastructure Levy (CIL) was introduced. Originally intended as a simple flat rate charge to replace site-specific planning agreements, CIL now sits alongside that mechanism so that developers pay CIL to help fund infrastructure provision in the locality, whilst planning agreements help mitigate the impact of their development and provide affordable housing. The experience of running a system of negotiated planning agreements alongside a non-negotiable infrastructure levy offers an opportunity to evaluate these policy shifts in order to assess their strengths and weaknesses and whether there are any wider lessons for international discussions of best practice in land value capture. Drawing on survey findings the paper considers the implementation of CIL alongside planning agreements, the revenue and expenditure patterns, and the impact of these combined land value capture mechanisms on development activity and, in particular, on affordable housing supply. 相似文献
17.
Yoke Heng Wong 《Risk analysis》2011,31(12):1872-1882
Road tunnels are vital infrastructures providing underground vehicular passageways for commuters and motorists. Various quantitative risk assessment (QRA) models have recently been developed and employed to evaluate the safety levels of road tunnels in terms of societal risk (as measured by the F/N curve). For a particular road tunnel, traffic volume and proportion of heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) are two adjustable parameters that may significantly affect the societal risk, and are thus very useful in implementing risk reduction solutions. To evaluate the impact the two contributing factors have on the risk, this article first presents an approach that employs a QRA model to generate societal risk for a series of possible combinations of the two factors. Some combinations may result in F/N curves that do not fulfill a predetermined safety target. This article thus proposes an “excess risk index” in order to quantify the road tunnel risk magnitudes that do not pass the safety target. The two‐factor impact analysis can be illustrated by a contour chart based on the excess risk. Finally, the methodology has been applied to Singapore's KPE road tunnel and the results show that in terms of meeting the test safety target for societal risk, the traffic capacity of the tunnel should be no more than 1,200 vehs/h/lane, with a maximum proportion of 18% HGVs. 相似文献
18.
In November 2001, the Monterey Institute of International Studies convened a workshop on bioterrorism threat assessment and risk management. Risk assessment practitioners from various disciplines, but without specialized knowledge of terrorism, were brought together with security and intelligence threat analysts to stimulate an exchange that could be useful to both communities. This article, prepared by a subset of the participants, comments on the workshop's findings and their implications and makes three recommendations, two short term (use of threat assessment methodologies and vulnerability analysis) and one long term (application of quantitative risk assessment and modeling), regarding the practical application of risk assessment methods to bioterrorism issues. 相似文献
19.
Qualitative systems for rating animal antimicrobial risks using ordered categorical labels such as “high,”“medium,” and “low” can potentially simplify risk assessment input requirements used to inform risk management decisions. But do they improve decisions? This article compares the results of qualitative and quantitative risk assessment systems and establishes some theoretical limitations on the extent to which they are compatible. In general, qualitative risk rating systems satisfying conditions found in real‐world rating systems and guidance documents and proposed as reasonable make two types of errors: (1) Reversed rankings, i.e., assigning higher qualitative risk ratings to situations that have lower quantitative risks; and (2) Uninformative ratings, e.g., frequently assigning the most severe qualitative risk label (such as “high”) to situations with arbitrarily small quantitative risks and assigning the same ratings to risks that differ by many orders of magnitude. Therefore, despite their appealing consensus‐building properties, flexibility, and appearance of thoughtful process in input requirements, qualitative rating systems as currently proposed often do not provide sufficient information to discriminate accurately between quantitatively small and quantitatively large risks. The value of information (VOI) that they provide for improving risk management decisions can be zero if most risks are small but a few are large, since qualitative ratings may then be unable to confidently distinguish the large risks from the small. These limitations suggest that it is important to continue to develop and apply practical quantitative risk assessment methods, since qualitative ones are often unreliable. 相似文献
20.
Hoffmann S 《Risk analysis》2011,31(9):1345-1355
Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. 相似文献
