近30年甘肃省潜在蒸散发时空变化特征及演变归因的定量分析

蒸散发是地球系统水量平衡和能量平衡中的重要组成部分,研究潜在蒸散发的变化对于更好地理解气候变化对水文循环的影响及水资源配置具有重要意义。本文基于FAO推荐并修订的Penman-Monteith模型,利用1981-2010年甘肃省内及周边的32个气象站点的常规观测资料对甘肃近30年内潜在蒸散发的时空变化特征进行研究,并对潜在蒸散发对气象因子的敏感性及其敏感系数的空间分布进行分析,定量揭示了影响甘肃潜在蒸散发变化的主导因素。结果可为研究甘肃气候变化对水循环的影响、提高农业灌溉效率和调整水资源利用结构及优化配置水资源提供参考。     

SIMETAW# - a Model for Agricultural Water Demand Planning

A successful water management scheme for irrigated crops requires an integrated approach, which accounts for water, soil, and crop management. SIMETAW# is a user friendly soil water balance model that assesses crop water use, irrigation requirements, and generates hypothetical irrigation schedules for a wide range of crops experiencing full or deficit irrigation. SIMETAW# calculates reference evapotranspiration (ET_o), and it computes potential crop evapotranspiration (ET_c), and the evapotranspiration of applied water (ET_aw), which is the amount of irrigation water needed to match losses from the effective soil root zone due to ET_c that are not replaced by precipitation and other sources. Using input information on crop and soil characteristics and the distribution uniformity of infiltrated irrigation applications in full or deficit conditions, the model estimates the mean depth of infiltrated water (IW) into each quarter of the field. The impact of deficit irrigation on the actual crop evapotranspiration (ET_a) is computed separately for each of the four quarters of the cropped field. SIMETAW# simulation adjusts ET_o estimates for projected future CO₂ concentration, and hence the model can assess climate change impacts on future irrigation demand allowing the user to propose adaptation strategies that potentially lead to a more sustainable water use. This paper discusses the SIMETAW# model and evaluates its performance on estimating ET_c, ET_a, and ET_aw for three case studies.     

基于AquaGIS模型的盈科灌区制种玉米农业用水效率分析

盈科灌区是黑河流域中游绿洲典型灌区之一,该灌区农业用水效率较低,农业用水矛盾十分突出。制种玉米是灌区主要种植作物,研究制种玉米的优化灌溉制度对实现该区域农业用水可持续发展具有十分重要的意义。利用分布式作物模型AquaGIS模型,基于盈科灌区土壤质地的空间变异性对该灌区制种玉米灌溉制度进行了优化,提出了适合灌区实际配水情况的最佳灌溉制度。通过灌溉制度优化,灌区制种玉米蒸散发量减少36~53mm,水分生产率WPET增加5%左右,灌溉水生产率WPI增加25%~48%,极大地提高了灌区农业用水效率。同时,对该灌区不同水文年灌溉制度进行优化,综合对比灌区制种玉米WPET、WPI和产量,其中丰水年灌溉3次、平水年灌溉4次、枯水年灌溉5次可以实现农业用水效率最高,为灌区高效节水灌溉提供理论指导。     

Priority Water Rights for Irrigation at the River Basin Level. Do They Improve Economic Efficiency During Drought Periods?

This paper assesses the potential efficiency gains of reforming the water rights regime in the Spanish agricultural sector by replacing current allocation procedures based on the proportional rule with a priority allocation procedure based on two tiers of security-differentiated water rights. This assessment is useful for evaluating whether said change in water rights can be considered a suitable policy instrument to improve water management during droughts events. For this purpose, a mathematical programming model is built to simulate the performance of the proposed reform. The empirical analysis is implemented at the basin scale, where water rights holders are highly heterogeneous, considering different climate scenarios accounting for changes in water supply reliability. The Guadalquivir River Basin (GRB) in southern Spain is used as a case study. The results obtained show that this change in the water allocation regime would yield only modest economic efficiency gains under the current climate scenario. However, it is also evidenced that this policy instrument could play a more relevant role as an efficiency enhancer in a climate change scenario, given that more frequent and intense drought episodes are expected. Moreover, priority rights represent an interesting risk management instrument for farmers, allowing the most vulnerable farmers to reduce income volatility. These findings suggest that the combined implementation of the proposed shift in the allocation regime with spot or allocation water markets would lead to successful outcomes, significantly improving drought management in the irrigation sector.

     

覆膜滴灌下枸杞耗水规律研究

通过大田枸杞滴灌和传统畦灌对照处理试验,研究了覆膜滴灌下枸杞耗水规律、水分利用效率和产量的变化规律,结果表明,枸杞覆膜滴灌生育期内耗水量相比传统畦灌平均减少了34%,生育期内灌溉定额相比传统畦灌平均节约了52%。当覆膜滴灌枸杞耗水量为612 mm时,枸杞的水分效率和干果产量达到最优组合水平。     

Optimization of Irrigation Scheduling Using Soil Water Balance and Genetic Algorithms

In arid and semi-arid countries, the use of irrigation is essential to ensure agricultural production. Irrigation water use is expected to increase in the near future due to several factors such as the growing demand of food and biofuel under a probable climate change scenario. For this reason, the improvement of irrigation water use efficiency has been one of the main drivers of the upgrading process of irrigation systems in countries like Spain, where irrigation water use is around 70 % of its total water use. Pressurized networks have replaced the obsolete open-channel distribution systems and on farm irrigation systems have been also upgraded incorporating more efficient water emitters like drippers or sprinklers. Although pressurized networks have significant energy requirements, increasing operational costs. In these circumstances farmers may be unable to afford such expense if their production is devoted to low-value crops. Thus, in this work, a new approach of sustainable management of pressurized irrigation networks has been developed using multiobjective genetic algorithms. The model establishes the optimal sectoring operation during the irrigation season that maximize farmer’s profit and minimize energy cost at the pumping station whilst satisfying water demand of crops at hydrant level taking into account the soil water balance at farm scale. This methodology has been applied to a real irrigation network in Southern Spain. The results show that it is possible to reduce energy cost and improve water use efficiency simultaneously by a comprehensive irrigation management leading, in the studied case, to energy cost savings close to 15 % without significant reduction of crop yield.     

考虑气象因子不确定性的参考作物蒸散量预报方法

参考作物蒸散量(ET0)的准确预测预报对于制定作物灌溉制度与实时灌溉调度具有重要意义,然而气象因子的不确定性极大的影响着ET0的预测精度.因此本研究采用马尔科夫蒙特卡罗模拟与自适应采样算法相结合的方法(AM-MCMC)对气象因子的不确定性进行修正,以气象站实测ET0作为标准值,利用径向基神经网络(RBF)模型建立气象因...     

Evaluation of Class A Pan Coefficient Models for Estimation of Reference Crop Evapotranspiration in Cold Semi-Arid and Warm Arid Climates

Evapotranspiration and evaporation measurements are important parameters for many agricultural activities such as water resource management and environmental studies. There are several models which can determine pan coefficient (K _Pan), using wind speed, relative humidity and fetch length conditions. This paper analyses seven exiting pan models to estimate K _Pan values for two different climates of Iran. Monthly mean reference crop evapotranspiration (ET₀) was calculated according to the pan-ET₀ model. The results showed that estimated pan coefficients by majority of the suggested models were not statistically accurate to be used in the pan-ET₀ conversion method. However, for the cold semi-arid climate condition, the best K _Pan models for estimation of ET₀ were Orang and Raghuwanshi–Wallender, respectively. Also, the Snyder and Orang models were best fitted models for warm arid climate, respectively. The mean annual value of K _Pan, determined by Penman–Monteith FAO 56 (PMF-56) standard model for warm arid sites, was approximately 32% higher than the corresponding value in the cold semi-arid climate. Similarly, the mean annual ET₀ in the warm arid sites was 66% higher, compared to the ET₀ of the cold semi-arid sites. These types of warm arid and semi-arid climates are found widely throughout the world.     

基于气候分区的甘肃省参考作物蒸发蒸腾量时空分布特征

参考作物蒸发蒸腾量(ET0)是计算作物需水量的重要参数,为了减少甘肃地区因地形和气候跨度大而引起的灌溉参数计算误差,根据甘肃省的地理特征和干湿程度将甘肃地区划分为陇南-甘南湿润区、陇中南部半湿润区、陇中北部半干旱区和河西干旱区4个区域,利用26个国家气象站点1980-2015年的逐日气象资料,采用FAO-56 Penman-Monteith方程计算ET0,并通过反距离权重空间插值法和偏相关分析法研究了甘肃省整体和不同分区ET0的时空分布特征和影响因素。结果表明:甘肃省ET0年际变化趋势为1980-1991年下降,1991-2015年上升,整体呈上升趋势;甘肃省ET0的空间分布总体为自东南向西北逐渐增加;ET0与日平均风速、日照时数、日最高气温、日最低气温、日平均气温均表现为极显著正相关,与平均相对湿度表现为极显著负相关,且影响程度顺序为,甘肃省:U>N>Tmax>RH>Tmin>Tmean,陇南-甘南湿润区:N>U>Tmax>RH>Tmin>Tmean,陇中南部半湿润区:N>U>RH>Tmax>Tmin>Tmean,陇中北部半干旱区和河西干旱区:U>N>Tmax>RH>Tmin>Tmean。结论:地形和气候对ET0影响很大,由湿润区向干旱区依次增加;各分区ET0差异较大,从东南部向西北部增加;甘肃省ET0主要影响因素为平均风速和日照时数。     

Evaluation of Adaptation Scenarios for Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Water Allocation Using Fuzzy MCDM Methods

Due to the impacts of climate change on agriculture and water allocation, an investigation of the farmers’ perceptions and stakeholders’ views on the adaptation strategies to climate change has a great of importance for sustainable development in the future. In this study, a fuzzy based decision support system has been developed to evaluate and rank the proposed adaptation scenarios to climate change in the Jarreh agricultural water resources system in southwest of Iran. Using output of ten coupled models inter comparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) under two representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5), the results indicated an increasing the annual mean temperature (1.64–1.84 °C under RCP 4.5, and 1.85–2.1 °C under RCP 8.5), reducing the amount of runoff into the reservoir (17.83–46.24% under RCP 4.5, and 21.54–50.91%under RCP 8.5), as well as increasing the amount of agricultural water requirement. Also, the results showed decreasing in reliability of system (12–53% under RCP 4.5, and 23–63% under RCP 8.5). Following, due to the main purpose of the system, six adaptation scenarios by using a questionnaire and stakeholders’ opinions are proposed to mitigate the effects of climate change. In the next step, by fuzzy mode of the technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) and fuzzy preference ranking organization method for enrichment of evaluations (PROMETHEE II), the proposed scenarios have been ranked according to the performance criteria. The final results of this study indicated the superiority of improving the irrigation efficiency and decreasing the area under cultivation among other proposed scenarios.

     

Groundwater Use for Irrigation and its Productivity: Status and Opportunities for Crop Intensification for Food Security in Bangladesh

Bangladesh has a large and growing population that will demand more food and place greater pressure on resources. Dry season irrigated Boro rice production is important for national food security. Dry season irrigation mainly uses groundwater, but the extent of its use is not well known. We assessed groundwater use and water productivity of Boro in the northwest region of Bangladesh using remote sensing based energy balance modelling, crop classification and secondary statistics. The energy balance modelling shows a large spatial variation in the actual evapotranspiration (ET_a) from about 325 to 470 mm, with an overall spatial average of 365 mm during dry season. The estimated values of ET_a correspond well with independent values from field and regional scale soil and water balance modelling results. From spatial estimates of ET_a and effective rainfall, we computed regional net groundwater use for Boro production in 2009 as 2.4 km³. Groundwater is being used unsustainably in some areas, and a spatial time series (1990 to 2010) of pre- and post-monsoon groundwater depth changes in the northwest region of Bangladesh suggests that, with the current level of groundwater use, falling groundwater levels may pose a long term threat to the sustainability of irrigated agriculture in much of the region. Boro water productivity varies from 0.95 to 1.35 kg/m³, allowing the identification of high performing “bright” and low performing “hot” spots and the development of strategies to reduce crop yield/productivity gaps and ensure future food security.     

气候变化对灌区农业需水量的影响研究

气候变暖不仅影响水资源量及其时空分布的变化,而且也会使农作物蒸发蒸腾量增加,从而加剧农业水资源供需矛盾。因此,研究气候变化对农业需水量的影响对保障农业用水安全具有重要的意义。本文利用陕西省宝鸡峡灌区11个气象站28 a的气象资料,分析了灌区气候变化特征;计算了主要作物需水量和农田灌溉需水量;利用单因素敏感性分析法研究了气候变化对农业需水量的影响。研究结果表明:灌区年平均气温显著上升,降水量持续下降,蒸发量明显增大,大部分地区相对湿度和风速显著下降,而日照时数有所增加;冬小麦、玉米、棉花和油菜生育期需水量明显增加;各气候因素对农田灌溉需水量影响顺序为:降水量>相对湿度>最高气温>日照时数>平均气温>风速,气温的上升、相对湿度的下降、降水量的减少以及日照时数的增大使作物需水量明显增大,而灌溉面积减小使农业需水量有减少的趋势。     

淡水湿地生态系统中微生物驱动氮转化过程研究进展

淡水湿地在全球氮循环中发挥着重要作用,微生物驱动氮转化过程对于淡水湿地的自然净化功能及水体富营养化控制具有重要意义。近年来,随着分子生物学和生物信息学等技术的快速发展,湿地系统的氮转化功能菌群和微生物多样性等方面的研究取得了突破性进展。与此同时,受气候条件变化及人类活动影响,淡水湿地系统生境因子出现了复杂变化,进而影响了功能微生物及其氮转化途径。氮循环过程中产生的一氧化二氮(N_2O)是仅次于二氧化碳(CO_2)、甲烷(CH_4)的第三大温室气体,与淡水湿地系统微生态及功能密切相关,其产生机理和影响因素也受到广泛关注。由于参与氮循环的微生物复杂多样、功能菌群协同作用机制不明,以及其受气候条件变化和人类活动影响显著,仍有必要深入研究淡水湿地系统的微生物驱动氮转化过程及机制。     

An Improved Estimation of the Angstrom–Prescott Radiation Coefficients for the FAO56 Penman–Monteith Evapotranspiration Method

The FAO56 Penman–Monteith (FAO56-PM) method is known as the standard method for estimating reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) in a variety of climate types. Global solar radiation (R_s) is one of the essential inputs of this model, which is usually estimated from the Angstrom–Prescott (AP) method. The major drawback of the FAO56 pre-defined AP coefficients application is that the AP coefficients might need local calibration, to estimate ET₀ accurately. The aim of this study is to compare the effect of the FAO56 pre-defined AP coefficients (i.e. a and b) and the locally calibrated ones, on estimating daily ET₀ in 15 sites over Iran. Using long-term (1980–2007) experimental global solar radiation data (R_s), new locally calibrated (a) and (b) coefficients are suggested and new ET₀ values are determined accordingly. It was found that the range of the calibrated AP coefficients (a, b) are climate dependent and locally different from those of recommended by the FAO56-PM method. Estimated ET₀ at daily scale, improved up to 72.7 % when the calibrated AP coefficients were applied instead of FAO56 pre-defined AP coefficients. Based on the results, applying the FAO56 pre-defined AP coefficients (i.e. a?=?0.25 and b?=?0.50) in northern subtropical-humid and southern hot climates caused larger ET₀ errors. By contrast, the least ET₀ errors were found in cool arid and cool semi-arid inland climates, locating about 1,330 above sea level. The correlations between the calibrated AP coefficients and geographical factors are also discussed in this research.     

农业用水效率影响因素及机理分析

高效利用水资源已成为农业生产亟待解决的问题。为此,根据农业生态系统组成分析,影响农业用水效率的主要因素可以归纳为灌区的自然条件(气候、水资源条件、土壤质地)、灌区条件(包括类型和规模)、作物种植结构、灌溉工程措施、灌水技术、灌区基础设施和节水配套状况、灌区管理水平、经济政策和供水水价等几个方面。不同因素的影响机理是不同的,有些因素是可调控的,有些因素则短期内难以改变。重点分析了各因素对农田灌溉水有效利用系数的影响机理,同时从设施、制度、结构、技术等方面提出了提高农业用水效率的对策措施。     

Changes in Irrigation Planning and Development Parameters Due to Climate Change

Considering changes in irrigation planning and development due to climate change is necessary to avoid system failure. This study demonstrated that changes in dependable flow and diversion water requirements in the future due to climate change will reduce potential irrigable areas. Climate change were based on the published projected climate in the study area. The dependable flow derived from successfully calibrated and validated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model streamflow simulations and the diversion water requirements based on the CROPWAT estimations of irrigation scheme were used to assess the potential irrigable areas. Substantial reductions in potential rice production areas (-4% to – 39%) were largely due to dwindled dependable flow (-1% to -25%) and an increase in diversion water requirement (+?7% to?+?26%). Reduction in potential irrigable area was projected during dry and normal years and may worsen towards the late twenty-first century under the worst-case climate scenario. Swelling of rivers during wet years will increase stream flows and potential irrigable areas but may also pose a danger of flooding. The development of water storage structures is necessary to reduce the adverse impacts of too much water during the wet years. Crop calendars should also be retrofitted to optimize the use of available rainfall during dry and normal years and climate-proof future irrigation systems. The results showed that it is necessary to incorporate climate change in irrigation planning and development. The methodologies described here could be used to climate-proof future irrigation systems in other areas in the Philippines and other countries.

     

Reference Evapotranspiration Prediction Using Neural Networks and Optimum Time Lags

The reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) plays a significant role especially in agricultural water management and water resources planning for irrigation. It can be calculated using different empirical equations and forecasted by applying various artificial intelligence techniques. The simulation result of a machine learning technique is a function of its structure and model inputs. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of using the optimum set of time lags for model inputs on the prediction accuracy of monthly ET₀ using an artificial neural network (ANN). For this, the weather data time-series i.e. minimum and maximum air temperatures, vapour pressure, sunshine hours, and wind speed were collected from six meteorological stations in Serbia for the period 1980–2010. Three ANN models were applied to monthly ET₀ time-series to study the impacts of using the optimum time lags for input time-series on the performance of ANN model. Achieved results of goodness–of–fit statistics approved the results obtained by scatterplots of testing sets - using more time lags that are selected based on their correlation to the dataset is more efficient for monthly ET₀ prediction. It was realized that all the developed models showed the best performances at Loznica and Vranje stations and the worst performances at Nis station. Simultaneous assessment of the impact of using a different number of time lags and the set of time lags that show a stronger correlation to the dataset for input time-series, on the performance of ANN model in monthly ET₀ prediction in Serbia is the novelty of this study.

     

节水灌溉稻田蒸散时空尺度特征及影响因素

为研究节水灌溉稻田蒸散规律和尺度特征及其影响因素的尺度依赖性,用小型蒸渗仪和涡度相关仪分别测量了节水灌溉稻田冠层蒸散量(ETCML)和田间尺度蒸散量(ETEC),分析了ETCML和ETEC的典型日和逐日变化规律,以及在小时和日时间尺度上的影响因素。结果表明:节水灌溉稻田ETCML和ETEC变化规律基本一致,但白天ETCML均大于ETEC,且上午两尺度蒸散量大小和相位差均明显大于下午,夜晚ETCML和ETEC接近0,但ETCML呈正负交替波动。两尺度蒸散量的逐日变化总体上呈先增加后减小,高峰期出现在分蘖后期,抽穗开花期较小。ETCML日均值大于ETEC,比值平均为1.50。净辐射和饱和水汽压差是不同时空尺度蒸散量的显著影响因素,但叶面积指数、空气温度、风速和土壤含水率对不同时空尺度蒸散量的影响不同,具有明显的时空尺度效应。     

Daily Reference Evapotranspiration for Hyper-Arid to Moist Sub-Humid Climates in Inner Mongolia,China: II. Trends of ET<Subscript>o</Subscript> and Weather Variables and Related Spatial Patterns

This study focuses on assessing trends of reference evapotranspiration (ET_o) considering aridity. Weather data sets of 54–62 years of Inner Mongolia, a Chinese Province where climate varies from hyper-arid in the West to wet sub-humid in the East, were used. Trends were analyzed for ET_o computed with the FAO Penman-Monteith method (PM-ET_o) using full data sets of maximum and minimum temperature (T_max and T_min), sunshine duration (SD) used to compute net radiation, relative humidity (RH) and wind speed (WS). Trends were also assessed for ET_o computed with the Hargreaves-Samani temperature eq. (ET_{o HS}) and the Penman-Monteith equation with temperature estimates of solar radiation and actual vapour pressure (ET_{o PMT}). In addition, trends relative to T_max, T_min, SD, RH and WS were assessed. Trends for PM-ET_o show to vary with aridity, with decreasing trends in the areas marked by aridity in the West and increased trends in less arid and sub-humid areas in the East. The detected trends are well explained by the trends in weather variables which consist of large increasing trends of T_max and T_min and of decreasing trends for SD, RH and WS. Therefore, negative trends of ET_o occur where impacts of increases in temperature and decreases in RH are smaller than impacts of declining SD and WS; otherwise, when warming influences are larger it results a positive trend for ET_o. Trends were coherent when considering seasonality influences. Contrarily, results for the temperature methods, ET_{o PMT} and ET_{o HS,} always identified increased trends for ET_o due to warming effects. These results show that it is inappropriate to assess ET_o trends when using simplified temperature methods.     

Identification of Trend in Reference Evapotranspiration Series with Serial Dependence in Iran

Monitoring the temporal variations of reference evapotranspiration (ET_o) and quantifying any trends offer valuable information for regional hydrology, agricultural water requirements and water resources management. This study aimed to examine the temporal trends in the Penman–Monteith ET_o in the west and southwest of Iran by using the Kendall and Spearman tests after eliminating the influence of significant lag-1 serial correlation from the ET_o time series. The magnitudes and starting years of significant ET_o trends were determined by the Mann-Kendall rank statistic and the Theil–Sen’s estimator, respectively. For the study period of 1966–2005, a significant positive lag-1 serial correlation coefficient was observed at almost all the stations. The existence of the positive serial correlation in the ET_o series increased the possibility of the Kendall and Spearman tests to reject the null hypothesis of no trend while it is true. It was found that the Kendall test was more sensitive than the Spearman test to the existence of the positive serial correlation in the ET_o series. After removing the serial correlation effect with pre-whitening method, only three significant increasing ET_o trends were obtained at Khorram-Abad, Shahrekord and Zanjan stations at the rates of 0.16, 0.06 and 0.06 mm/day per decade, respectively. The significant increasing ET_o trends of Khorram-Abad, Zanjan and Shahrekord stations started in 1997, 1994 and 1998, respectively. The stepwise regression method showed that wind speed was the most dominating variable affecting on the significant changes of ET_o.