未来洪灾风险与适应性洪水综合管理框架

鉴于未来洪水灾害系统状态及其风险的不可预测性,提出了以社会学习过程为核心的适应性洪水综合管理模式,同时针对如何选择具有良好适应性的洪水管理策略的问题,提出了未来洪灾风险和洪水管理策略分析的情景分析概念模型.分析认为:适应性洪水综合管理的基本要求是管理措施多样化、避免不可逆转的管理措施、利益相关者的广泛参与、建立更加系统...     

Recurrent Governance Challenges in the Implementation and Alignment of Flood Risk Management Strategies: a Review

In Europe increasing flood risks challenge societies to diversify their Flood Risk Management Strategies (FRMSs). Such a diversification implies that actors not only focus on flood defence, but also and simultaneously on flood risk prevention, mitigation, preparation and recovery. There is much literature on the implementation of specific strategies and measures as well as on flood risk governance more generally. What is lacking, though, is a clear overview of the complex set of governance challenges which may result from a diversification and alignment of FRM strategies. This paper aims to address this knowledge gap. It elaborates on potential processes and mechanisms for coordinating the activities and capacities of actors that are involved on different levels and in different sectors of flood risk governance, both concerning the implementation of individual strategies and the coordination of the overall set of strategies. It identifies eight overall coordination mechanisms that have proven to be useful in this respect.     

洪水管理、风险评估和洪泛区区划

洪水风险评估包括洪峰、洪量、水位和洪水过程.从安全角度来看,洪水风险评估对于水电工程、防洪工程的设计和运行是十分重要的.洪水管理旨在最大限度地减少洪泛区的洪灾损失,因此根据洪水发生的量级和频率进行洪水风险评估、制作洪水风险图对于洪水管理至关重要.目前在印度采取的主要防洪措施有:进行堤坝溃决风险分析、发布洪水预警、制作洪水风险图或洪灾风险图等.根据洪灾风险评估确定不同的保险费用,并据此推行防洪保险计划,可能非常有助于洪泛区的区划工作.地形等高线图是进行洪泛区区划的前提条件.根据这些图集和洪水风险评估,洪泛区能够按照区划进行开发活动的分类管理.     

洪水风险管理和洪水资源化浅议

洪水风险管理是治水方略的新发展 ,洪水资源化是洪水风险管理的重要内容。洪水资源化存在的风险主要有 :水库应急泄洪风险 ;垮坝风险 ;动用蓄滞洪区的风险 ;引洪水补源和灌溉时 ,缩短灌区灌溉设施寿命的风险 ;洪水上滩时污染滩区的风险。对此 ,提出了弱化风险的管理对策 :加强防洪调度 ,提高水库调度技术 ;加强水沙污的统一调度 ;加强工程管理 ,消除病险水库 ;加强信息化建设 ,及时获知水情信息 ;建立蓄滞洪区的洪水保险机制和风险补偿机制     

英国的洪水风险管理

为了减少洪水造成的破坏和损失,近年来世界各国的洪水管理已从单一的防洪工程向洪水风险管理转变。除了能进行有效的洪水防御外,洪水风险管理还被认为是维持生物多样性、河流及海岸生态系统的重要手段。回顾了英国的洪水风险管理及其组成体系,并分析讨论了未来可能面临的问题及应对措施。结果表明,随着全球气候变化及社会经济发展,洪水发生的频率及其影响正在增加。因此,如何全面综合考虑降雨、径流、河流、洪泛区以及人类活动、社会经济规划、发展和管理等诸多因素是实施洪水风险管理面临的重要课题。     

Advances in Decision Support Systems for Flood Disaster Management: Challenges and Opportunities

Natural variations in the global climate are governed by complex interactions among the atmosphere, oceans, and land cover. Modern climate models suggest that these variations will continue, but with larger magnitudes and greater variability due to human influences. This is expected to increase the risk of flood disaster events. To improve flood risk management, a flood decision support system architecture is proposed that capitalizes on the latest advances in remote sensing, geographic information systems, hydrologic models, numerical weather prediction, information technology, and decision theory. Specifically, the dynamic climate prediction system developed by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, is discussed in the context of flood management and planning in the Yangtze River valley, China.     

我国洪旱灾害风险管理

长江河道采砂许可行政审批工作，事关政府形象，也直接关系到采砂者的经济利益乃至地方经济的发展。是社会关注的焦点，也是水行政主管部门的管理难点。审批工作只要依法行政，讲求科学，并公开、公平、公正地进行阳光操作，就会得到令政府和人民满意的结果。     

论抵御''98洪水与洪水风险管理

1998年长江流域发生了自1954年以来又一次全流域性大洪水，嫩江和松花江流域也发生了超历史记录的特大洪水．从抵御’98洪水中得出，必须改变单纯的抵御洪水的观念，要对洪水实行全过程风险管理．进行洪水风险管理，最主要的是制定针对洪水灾害的政策．并进一步分析了蓄滞洪区的管理，应加强以下几方面的建设：（1）控制和减少人口；（2）加强安全设施建设；（3）绘制洪水风险留，建立和完善避难的预报和预警系统；（4）建设分蓄洪控制工程；（5）严格土地利用规划及管理，调整产业结构；（6）实行洪水保险制度．     

为减轻红石岩堰塞湖防洪压力的德泽水库防洪调度研究

鲁甸“2014.8.3”地震牛栏江红石岩堰塞湖永久整治期间,牛栏江流域防洪压力增大。为有效减轻红石岩堰塞湖防洪压力,对德泽水库防洪调度方案进行研究。分析了德泽水库、红石岩堰塞湖及区间设计洪水峰量,以及有、无水库调节对堰塞湖的影响差异,确定了德泽水库4种泄洪方案相应的堰塞湖最大洪峰流量、水位变幅等,认为德泽水库错峰调度对于减轻红石岩堰塞湖永久整治期间的防洪压力和促进安全生产有着重要意义,提出了确保施工安全的措施建议。     

Dual-Interval Two-Stage Optimization for Flood Management and Risk Analyses

In this study, a dual interval two-stage restricted-recourse programming (DITRP) method is developed for flood-diversion planning under uncertainty. Compared with other conventional methods, DITRP improves upon them by addressing system uncertainties with complex presentations and incorporating subjective information within its optimization framework. Uncertainties in DITRP can be represented as probability distributions and intervals. In addition, the dual-interval concept is presented when the available information is highly uncertain for boundaries of intervals. Moreover, decision makers’ attitudes towards system risk can be reflected using a restricted-resource measure by controlling the variability of the recourse cost. The method has been applied to a case study of flood management. The results indicate that reasonable solutions for planning flood management practice have been generated which are related to decisions of flood-diversion. Several policy scenarios are analyzed, assisting in gaining insight into the tradeoffs between risk and cost.     

浅谈湖北省洪水风险图管理应用系统及集成

根据全国洪水风险图编制背景及湖北省洪水风险图编制概况,全面总结湖北省洪水风险图编制工作及取得的进展,梳理集成过程中出现的问题和针对性的解决办法,以及洪水风险图工作中的经验体会,为进一步完善洪水风险图编制、加强管理应用系统的开发、集成与运行等提供更好的基础。     

流域洪水的危害与洪水风险图绘制

通过相关文献资料的收集及各水利行业部门意见的征集,对流域洪水的风险分析与预测进行概括总结,并对当前国内与国际上较为常用的"洪水风险图"预测洪水方法进行简要论述,供今后的研究工作参考。     

From Flood Protection to Flood Risk Management: Insights from the Rhine River in North Rhine-Westphalia,Germany

This article introduces an analytical framework to identify and structure paradigm shifts from flood protection towards flood risk management. The framework is divided into three levels of analysis: (i) the governance level, (ii) the institutional level, and (iii) the operational level. Each of these levels plays an important role during the development and operationalization of a paradigm shift. The framework allows scholars and practitioners to organize a large amount of data and information relating to such a shift in a given river basin. To illustrate the potential of the framework, it is applied to the case of the Lower Rhine in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. The results demonstrate how the different levels interact with each other and which elements constitute a barrier or driver influencing a paradigm shift. While institutions developed at higher management levels support a paradigm shift, the overall dominance of technical flood protection measures at the operational level constitutes a barrier to integrated flood risk management. Furthermore, a lack of joint action and multi-level cooperation constitutes a barrier at the governance level.     

Collaborative Planning in Adaptive Flood Risk Management under Climate Change

Flood risk management (FRM) is moving towards more proactive and collaborative direction to enable adaptation to changing conditions. We present a case study on collaborative planning process, which contributed to the development of adaptive FRM in one of the largest river basins in Finland. The focus was on the possibility and acceptability of using large regulated lakes as storage for flood water in an extreme flood event to decrease flood damage at the downstream riverside towns. We defined an extreme flood event that would cause dramatic flood damage and developed tools for simulating the event with alternative regulation strategies using Watershed Simulation and Forecasting System (WSFS). We organized a stakeholder event to demonstrate the alternative lake regulation strategies, their socio-economic consequences, and to discuss their acceptability. We found that storing flood water in the lakes above the regulation limits and preparing for winter floods in advance by lowering the lakes in the autumn can minimize the total damage in the target area. The majority of stakeholders considered these actions acceptable in an extreme flood event, regardless of deliberately induced flooding of areas where no floods have occurred for over 50 years. However, lowering the lakes in the autumn on annual basis gained less support. We emphasize the importance of deliberations on the FRM procedures and responsibilities in extreme flood events with the stakeholders in advance to increase adaptive capacity and legitimacy of decisions.     

防洪减灾风险管理研究综述

主要对水文风险、水力风险、经济风险、风险决策和洪水保险五个方面的风险管理方法在防洪减灾中的研究现状进行归纳和评述 .其中水文风险的研究重点分为线型选择、参数估计、风险率计算三部分 ;水力风险的研究主要集中在水库泄洪风险及河道或洪泛区的洪水演进研究 ;经济风险分析主要集中在防洪费用效益的风险分析 ;风险决策研究通常表现为防洪问题的可靠性规划和多目标风险分析两种形式 ;洪水保险的研究主要是利用模拟模型来推导一个最优洪水保险策略 .文末阐述了防洪减灾风险管理的发展趋势     

于桥水库洪水风险管理的思考

洪水风险管理对于解决北方地区水库的防洪与兴利矛盾起到了重要作用，成为水利工程管理科学中的重要组成部分。于桥水库以作为防洪为主的大型水库，同时还肩负着供水任务。通过对于桥水库现行的调度方式的分析，提出了建立于桥水库洪水风险管理必要性和内容。     

洪灾风险管理决策支持系统的总体设计与构思

在简要介绍防洪决策支持系统研究现状的基础上 ,充分考虑了洪灾风险管理的特点和目标 ,提出了具有系统结构合理、扩充性好和适应实时要求特点的洪灾风险管理决策支持系统 ,确定了系统开发的原则 ,拟定了系统的组成结构及主要框架构成 ,设计了友好、直观并且操作灵活方便的界面     

黄河三角洲洪水风险分析及流路规划管理

河口治理和洪水风险管理是黄河三角洲发展的重要组成部分。过去几十年来,黄河三角洲在基础设施、水利工程、河堤及海堤建设以及组织、管理方面取得了巨大成就,确保了整个三角洲的防洪安全。然而,洪水风险依然存在,黄河在三角洲地区淤积、延伸、改道的自然属性没有改变,并且随着经济的增长以及气候的变化,洪水风险有增大的趋势。气候变化将导致更多极端气候事件的发生,如洪水、洪水引发的黄河改道以及强海暴潮等。针对目前黄河三角洲面对的洪水风险问题,提出加强水沙调节和河口减淤、延长现有流路行水年限、合理规划备用流路等应对措施。     

Great Lakes Levels and Flows: Past and Future

The many analyses of the more than 100 years’ record of Great Lakes levels and of precipitation in the basin are generally assumed to provide a reasonable basis for predicting, statistically, future lake levels. The usefulness of this assumption is questioned because of increasing consumptive use of Great Lakes waters, and probable climatic change over the next century. The International Joint Commission's 1981 report on consumptive use and diversions gives as its most likely scenario an annual growth of 2.7% in consumptive uses. By the year 2035, this would reduce Great Lakes outflows by about 708 m³ (25,000 cfs), with an estimated loss of “$200 million per year in hydro power production.” The climatic effects of the inexorable increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) due mainly to burning of fossil fuels are still difficult to predict. However, the best predictions available suggest that in the next 70 years or so, the mean air temperature in the Great Lakes basin will rise by approximately 3C° and may well be accompanied by slightly less precipitation. Increases in evaporation from the Great Lakes would be equivalent to 7–8% of the mean annual flow of the St. Lawrence. These two factors — increased evaporation and increased consumptive uses — suggest that significantly lower lake levels and flows of interconnecting channels and the St. Lawrence River are likely in the next century.     

Integrated Risk Management of Flood Disasters in Metropolitan Areas of China

A review of flood disasters in China during the past five decades has shown a steady increase in the disaster toll due to rapid urbanization, especially through landscape urbanization in metropolitan areas. This paper illustrates the relationship and the interactions between urbanization in the metropolis and the process of flood disaster changes. Furthermore, a solution is proposed to alleviate fluctuations in flood disasters through the adjustment of the land use structure and pattern in metropolitan areas. Based on the solution, the authors conclude that the proportion of ‘ecological land’ in metropolitan areas should not be lower than 40%. The proportion of water and wetlands in ecological land should not be lower than their area in the years of average precipitation and water level. This means that in the Pearl River Metropolitan Area and the Yangtze River Delta Metropolitan Area, the proportion of water and wetlands in ecological land should be more than 25%. Moreover, the authors propose constituting a regional management mode which combines government, society, and insurance companies for controlling flood risk in metropolitan areas.