2001-2010年中国地表比辐射率的时空变化(英文)

Land surface emissivity is one of the important parameters in temperature inversion from thermal infrared remote sensing. Using MOD11C3 of Terra-MODIS L3 level products, spatio-temporal data sets of land surface emissivity in China for 10 years from 2001 to 2010 are obtained. The results show that the land surface emissivity in the northwest desert region is the lowest in China, with little seasonal variations. In contrast, there are significant seasonal variations in land surface emissivity in northeast China and northern Xinjiang, the Qing-hai-Tibet Plateau, the Yangtze River Valley and the eastern and southern China. In winter, the land surface emissivity in the northeast China and northern Xinjiang is relatively high. The land surface emissivity of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region is maintained at low value from November to March, while it becomes higher in other months. The land surface emissivity of the Yangtze River Valley, eastern and southern China, and Sichuan Basin varies from July to October, and peaks in August. Land surface emissivity values could be divided into five levels: low emissivity (0.6163-0.9638), moderate-low emissivity (0.9639-0.9709), moderate emis-sivity (0.9710-0.9724), moderate-high emissivity (0.9725-0.9738), and high emissivity (0.9739-0.9999). The percentages of areas with low emissivity, moderate-low emissivity and moderate emissivity are, respectively, about 20%, 10% and 20%. The moderate-high emis-sivity region makes up 40%-50% of China’s land surface area. The inter-annual variation of moderate-high emissivity region is also very clear, with two peaks (in spring and autumn) and two troughs (in summer and winter). The inter-annual variation of the high emissivity region is very significant, with a peak in winter (10%), while only 1% or 2% in other seasons. There is a clear association between the spatio-temporal distribution of China’s land surface emissivity and temperature: the higher the emissivity, the lower the temperature, and vice versa. Emis-sivity is an inherent property of any object, but the precise value of its emissivity depends very much on its surrounding environmental factors.     

京津唐城市群不透水地表增长对水环境的影响(英文)

The impervious surface area (ISA) at the regional scale is one of the important en-vironmental factors for examining the interaction and mechanism of Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC)-ecosystem processes-climate change under the interactions of urbanization and global environmental change. Timely and accurate extraction of ISA from remotely sensed data at the regional scale is challenging. This study explored the ISA extraction based on MODIS and DMSP-OLS data and the incorporation of China’s land use/cover data. ISA datasets in Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Metropolitan Area (BTTMA) in 2000 and 2008 at a spa-tial resolution of 250 m were developed, their spatiotemporal changes were analyzed, and their impacts on water quality were then evaluated. The results indicated that ISA in BTTMA increased rapidly along urban fringe, transportation corridors and coastal belt both in intensity and extents from 2000 to 2008. Three cities (Tangshan, Langfang and Qinhuangdao) in Hebei Province had higher ISA growth rates than Beijing due to the pressure of population-re?sour?ces-envi?ronments in the city resulting in increasingly transferring industries to the nearby areas. The dense ISA distribution in BTTMA has serious impacts on water quality in the Haihe River watershed. Meanwhile, the proportion of ISA in sub-watersheds has significantly linear relationships with the densities of river COD and NH3-N.     

北京城市湿地时空演变及驱动力定量分析(英文)

The decision tree and the threshold methods have been adopted to delineate boundaries and features of water bodies from LANDSAT images. After a spatial overlay analysis and using a remote sensing technique and the wetland inventory data in Beijing, the water bodies were visually classified into different types of urban wetlands, and data on the urban wetlands of Beijing in 1986, 1991, 1996, 2000, 2002, 2004 and 2007 were obtained. Thirteen driving factors that affect wetland change were selected, and gray correlation analysis was employed to calculate the correlation between each driving factor and the total area of urban wetlands. Then, six major driving factors were selected based on the correlation coefficient, and the contribution rates of these six driving factors to the area change of various urban wetlands were calculated based on canonical correlation analysis. After that, this research analyzed the relationship and mechanism between the main driving factors and various types of wetlands. Five conclusions can be drawn. (1) The total area of surface water bodies in Beijing increased from 1986 to 1996, and gradually decreased from 1996 to 2007. (2) The areas of the river wetlands, water storage areas and pool and culture areas gradually decreased, and its variation tendency is consistent with that of the total area of wetlands. The area of the mining water areas and wastewater treatment plants slightly increased. (3) The six factors of driving forces are the annual rainfall, the evaporation, the quantity of inflow water, the volume of groundwater available, the urbanization rate and the daily average discharge of wastewater are the main factors affecting changes in the wetland areas, and they correlate well with the total area of wetlands. (4) The hydrologic indicators of water resources such as the quantity of inflow water and the volume of groundwater are the most important and direct driving forces that affect the change of the wetland area. These factors have a combined contribution rate of 43.94%. (5) Climate factors such as rainfall and evaporation are external factors that affect the changes in wetland area, and they have a contribution rate of 36.54%. (6) Human activities such as the urbanization rate and the daily average quantity of waste-water are major artificial driving factors. They have an influence rate of 19.52%.     

综合地理数据与MODIS物候特征的区域土地覆盖制图(英文)

The study developed a feasible method for large-area land cover mapping with combination of geographical data and phenological characteristics, taking Northeast China (NEC) as the study area. First, with the monthly average of precipitation and temperature datasets, the spatial clustering method was used to divide the NEC into four ecoclimate regions. For each ecoclimate region, geographical variables (annual mean precipitation and temperature, elevation, slope and aspect) were combined with phenological variables derived from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) data (enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and land surface water index (LSWI)), which were taken as input variables of land cover classification. Decision Tree (DT) classifiers were then performed to produce land cover maps for each region. Finally, four resultant land cover maps were mosaicked for the entire NEC (NEC_MODIS), and the land use and land cover data of NEC (NEC_LULC) interpreted from Landsat-TM images was used to evaluate the NEC_MODIS and MODIS land cover product (MODIS_IGBP) in terms of areal and spatial agreement. The results showed that the phenological information derived from EVI and LSWI time series well discriminated land cover classes in NEC, and the overall accuracy was significantly improved by 5.29% with addition of geographical variables. Compared with NEC_LULC for seven aggregation classes, the area errors of NEC_MODIS were much smaller and more stable than that of MODIS_IGBP for most of classes, and the wall-to-wall spatial comparisons at pixel level indicated that NEC_MODIS agreed with NEC_LULC for 71.26% of the NEC, whereas only 62.16% for MODIS_IGBP. The good performance of NEC_MODIS demonstrates that the methodology developed in the study has great potential for timely and detailed land cover mapping in temperate and boreal regions.     

中国与美国大都市区城市内部土地覆盖结构时空差异

城市内部土地覆盖结构对城市生态服务功能和人居环境质量产生重要影响。中国与美国不同发展阶段城市不透水地表和绿地时空分布格局存在显著差异。本文基于Landsat TM/MSS影像获取1978、1990、2000、2010 年城市内部土地覆盖和不透水地表分类信息,监测并比较中国和美国六个特大城市扩展时空动态、土地覆盖结构差异及城市不同功能区特征。研究表明,在过去30 多年以来,中国城市以相对紧凑形态发展,美国城市较为离散;美国三大城市植被所占的比例是中国的2.21 倍;中国城市内部结构土地利用功能类型更加复杂,不透水地表密度更高,而美国城市CBD和居住区功能相对独立,特别居住区以镶嵌式低不透水地表和高绿地比例结构为主。     

中国典型土地覆盖类型地表反照率的年内变化特征(英文)

Surface albedo is a primary causative variable associated with the process of surface energy exchange. Numerous studies have examined diurnal variation of surface albedo at a regional scale; however, few studies have analyzed the intra-annual variations of surface albedo in concurrence with different land cover types. In this study, we amalgamated surface albedo product data(MCD43) from 2001 to 2008, land-use data(in 2000 and 2008) and land cover data(in 2000); quantitative analyses of surface albedo variation pertaining to diverse land cover types and the effect of the presence/absence of ground snow were undertaken. Results indicate that intra-annual surface albedo values exhibit flat Gaussian or triangular distributions depending upon land cover types. During snow-free periods, satellite observed surface albedo associated with the non-growing season was lower than that associated with the growing season. Satellite observed surface albedo during the presence of ground snow period was 2–4 times higher than that observed during snow-free periods. Surface albedo reference values in typical land cover types have been calculated; notably, grassland, cropland and built-up land were associated with higher surface albedo reference values than barren while ground snow was present. Irrespective of land cover types, the lowest surface albedo reference values were associated with forested areas. Proposed reference values may prove extremely useful in diverse research areas, including ecological modeling, land surface process modeling and radiation energy balance applications.     

城市地表热通量遥感反演及与土地类型的关系(英文)

Using ASTER(Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiome-ter) infrared remote sensing data we inversed the parameters of urban surface heat fluxes applying the PCACA model and theoretical position algorithm,and then we analyzed the in-fluence of different land use types on the surface heat fluxes and energy balance.In this study,Kumagaya,a city in Saitama Prefecture,Japan,was selected as the experimental area.The result shows that the PCACA model is feasible for the surface heat fluxes estimation in urban areas because this model requires less parameters in the procedure of heat fluxes estimation in urban areas with complicated surface structure and can decrease the uncertainty.And we found that different land-use types have indicated the height heterogeneity on the surface heat fluxes significantly.The magnitudes of Bowen ratio in descending order are industrial,residential,transportation,institutional,dry farmland,green space,and water body.Under the same meteorological condition,there are distinct characteristics and regional differences in Bowen ratios among different surface covers,indicating higher sensible heat flux and lower latent heat flux in the urban construction land,while lower sensible heat flux and higher latent heat flux in the vegetation-covered area,the outskirt of the urban area.The increase of urban impervious surface area caused by the urban sprawl can enlarge the sensible heat flux and the Bowen ratio,so that it causes the increasing of urban surface temperature and air tem-perature,which is the mechanism of the so-called heat island effect.     

1960–2010年中国西南地区0℃层高度变化(英文)

Based on the radiosonde data observed at 14 stations in Southwest China from 1960 to 2010, as well as the corresponding surface air temperature, the long-term change of free-air 0 ℃isotherm height in Southwest China and the relationships between surface air temperature and 0 ℃isotherm height are discussed. The results indicated that the spatial distribution of 0 isotherm height is generally related with latitude, but the ℃ huge massif or plateau may complicate the latitude pattern. The two main regimes influencing the spatial patterns of 0 isotherm height℃ in Southwest China are latitude and huge massif. The annual 0 isotherm height has increased by 35 m per decade in the recent decades, which is st℃ atistically significant at the 0.001 level. Generally, the increasing trend can be examined for each seasonal series, especially in winter(53 m per decade). The diversity of trend magnitudes for annual and seasonal series can also be detected at a spatial view, but generally 0 ℃isotherm height correlated well with surface air temperature.     

历史时期中国重大自然灾害时空分异特征(英文)

Based on historical documents and records this paper analyzes the characteristics of frequency and distribution of major disasters that took place in the history of China. The findings show that occurrences of different types of disasters varied and spatial pattern at provincial level are significantly different as well. The results also indicate that there is a strong relationship between type of disasters and spatial distribution and that the spatial pattern of losses was not the same as that of the frequency. The reasons are: (1) the hazard-formative environments which, to a large extent, determine the spatial pattern of the disasters are significantly different; (2) the losses caused by natural disasters were closely related to the concentration of economy and population. Number of deaths was usually large in areas where agriculture, culture and business were relatively developed. The spatial pattern of disaster losses is an evitable result of uneven economic development in the history of China.     

中国地理科学进展与展望——与美国地理学战略方向的比较(英文)

Understanding the Changing Planet: Strategic Directions for the Geographical Sciences(UCP),published by the National Research Council(USA),and its comments in The Professional Geographer propose that uppercase and plural "Geographical Sciences"(GS) is the strategic direction for geography in the next decade for better understanding of our rapidly changing planet. According to these comments,UCP valued technologies and tools excessively("task"),and did not pay much attention to methodology("discipline"). Actually,both"task" and "discipline" are geographical wings,especially in the time of "big science".Enlightenment from UCP and its comments is the strategic direction that should be balanced between "task" and "discipline",GS should be a three-dimensional construct of a disciplinary system,methodology,and technologies and tools,and this system should be scientific humanism based on scientific spirit and directed by humanism. During the last 60 years,Chinese geographers devoted themselves to GS,including practice and theory. Obviously progress and outlook are proposed as interdisciplinary GS,Earth Surface Sciences(ESS) and Geographical Construction(GC). The disciplinary system of GS is very complex,and is composed of such human knowledge domains as sciences,technologies,engineering,and philosophy. The main mission is to research the open,complex,and macro earth system(not only scientifically,but also humanistically),and one significant methodology is "comprehensive integration of qualitative and quantitative means"(CIQQM). At the same time,another changing direction in Chinese geography is Human-Economic Geography(HEG).     

2000–2011年三江源区植被覆盖时空变化特征(英文)

The Three-River Headwaters Region(TRHR), which is the source area of the Yangtze River, Yellow River, and Lancang River, is of key importance to the ecological security of China. Because of climate changes and human activities, ecological degradation occurred in this region. Therefore, "The nature reserve of Three-River Source Regions" was established, and "The project of ecological protection and construction for the Three-River Headwaters Nature Reserve" was implemented by the Chinese government. This study, based on MODIS-NDVI and climate data, aims to analyze the spatiotemporal changes in vegetation coverage and its driving factors in the TRHR between 2000 and 2011, from three dimensions. Linear regression, Hurst index analysis, and partial correlation analysis were employed. The results showed the following:(1) In the past 12 years(2000–2011), the NDVI of the study area increased, with a linear tendency being 1.2%/10a, of which the Yangtze and Yellow River source regions presented an increasing trend, while the Lancang River source region showed a decreasing trend.(2) Vegetation coverage presented an obvious spatial difference in the TRHR, and the NDVI frequency was featured by a bimodal structure.(3) The area with improved vegetation coverage was larger than the degraded area, being 64.06% and 35.94%, respectively during the study period, and presented an increasing trend in the north and a decreasing trend in the south.(4) The reverse characteristics of vegetation coverage change are significant. In the future, degradation trends will be mainly found in the Yangtze River Basin and to the north of the Yellow River, while areas with improving trends are mainly distributed in the Lancang River Basin.(5) The response of vegetation coverage to precipitation and potential evapotranspiration has a time lag, while there is no such lag in the case of temperature.(6) The increased vegetation coverage is mainly attributed to the warm-wet climate change and the implementation of the ecological protection project.     

1985–2010年中国省际人口迁移的时空格局(英文)

Migration plays an increasing role in China's economy since mobility rose and economic restructuring has proceeded during the last three decades. Given the background of most studies focusing on migration in a particular period, there is a critical need to analyze the spatial-temporal patterns of migration. Using bicomponent trend mapping technique and interprovincial migration data during the periods 1985–1990, 1990–1995, 1995–2000, 2000– 2005, and 2005–2010 we analyze net-, in-, out-migration intensity, and their changes over time in this study. Strong spatial variations in migration intensity were found in China's interprovincial migration, and substantial increase in migration intensity was also detected in eastern China during 1985–2010. Eight key destinations are mostly located within the three rapidly growing economic zones of eastern China(Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region), and they are classified into three types: mature, emerging, and fluctuant origins, while most key origins are relatively undeveloped central and western provinces, which are exactly in accordance with China's economic development patterns. The results of bicomponent trend mapping indicate that, in a sense, the migration in the south was more active than the north over the last three decades. The result shows the new changing features of spatial-temporal patterns of China's interprovincial migration that Fan and Chen did not find out in their research. A series of social-economic changes including rural transformation, balanced regional development, and labor market changes should be paid more attention to explore China's future interprovincial migration.     

近50年气候变化背景下中国西部冰川面积状况分析(英文)

Based on the glacier area variation records in the typical regions of China moni-tored by remote sensing, as well as the meteorological data of air temperature and precipitation from 139 stations and the 0℃ isotherm height from 28 stations, the glacier area shrinkage in China and its climatic background in the past half century was discussed. The initial glacier area calculated in this study was 23,982 km2 in the 1960s/1970s, but the present area was only 21,893 km2 in the 2000s. The area-weighted shrinking rate of glacier was 10.1%, and the interpolated annual percentage of area changes (APAC) of glacier was 0.3% a-1 since 1960. The high APAC was found at the Ili River Basin and the Junggar Interior Basin around the Tianshan Mountains, the Ob River Basin around the Altay Mountains, the Hexi Interior Basin around the Qilian Mountains, etc. The retreat of glacier was affected by the climatic background, and the influence on glacier of the slight-increased precipitation was counteracted by the significant warming in summer.     

1961–2011年中国南方地区极端降水事件变化(英文)

Based on the daily precipitation from a 0.5°×0.5° gridded dataset and meteorological stations during 1961–2011 released by National Meteorological Information Center, the reliability of this gridded precipitation dataset in South China was evaluated. Five precipitation indices recommended by the World Meteorological Organization(WMO) were selected to investigate the changes in precipitation extremes of South China. The results indicated that the bias between gridded data interpolated to given stations and the corresponding observed data is limited, and the proportion of the number of stations with bias between –10% and 0 is 50.64%. The correlation coefficients between gridded data and observed data are generally above 0.80 in most parts. The average of precipitation indices shows a significant spatial difference with drier northwest section and wetter southeast section. The trend magnitudes of the maximum 5-day precipitation(RX5day), very wet day precipitation(R95), very heavy precipitation days(R20mm) and simple daily intensity index(SDII) are 0.17 mm·a–1, 1.14 mm·a–1, 0.02 d·a–1 and 0.01 mm·d–1·a–1, respectively, while consecutive wet days(CWD) decrease by –0.05 d·a–1 during 1961–2011. There is spatial disparity in trend magnitudes of precipitation indices, and approximate 60.85%, 75.32% and 75.74% of the grid boxes show increasing trends for RX5 day, SDII and R95, respectively. There are high correlations between precipitation indices and total precipitation, which is statistically significant at the 0.01 level.     

1981–2010年中国散射光合有效辐射的估算及时空特征(英文)

Photosynthetically active radiation(PAR) is the energy source of plant photosynthesis, and the diffuse component can enhance canopy light use efficiency, thereby increasing the carbon uptake. Therefore, diffuse PAR is an important driving factor of ecosystem productivity models. In this study, we estimated the diffuse PAR of over 700 meteorological sites in China from 1981 to 2010 using an empirical model based on observational data from Chinese Ecosystem Research Network(CERN) and China Meteorology Administration. Then we derived the spatial data set of 10 km monthly diffuse PAR using ANUSPLIN software, and analyzed the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of diffuse PAR through GIS and trend analysis techniques. The results showed that:(1) The spatial patterns of annual average diffuse PAR during 1981–2010 are heterogeneous across China, lower in the northeast and higher in the west and south. The nationwide average value for 30 years ranges from 6.66 mol m-2 d-1 to 15.27 mol m-2 d-1, and the value in summer is the biggest while the value in winter is the smallest.(2) There is an evident increasing trend of annual diffuse PAR during recent 30 years, with the increasing amplitude at 0.03 mol m-2 d-1/10a. But a significant declining trend is shown in the first 10 years, and obvious anomalies can be seen in 1982, 1983, 1991 and 1992. And there is a downtrend in spring and an uptrend in all the other seasons.(3) The spatial distribution of temporal variation rates of diffuse PAR is inhomogeneous across the country, generally decreasing in the north and increasing in the south.     

1998-2008年中国农作物化肥消费的时空分异(英文)

The agricultural and land policies in China are always focused on protecting its food supply and security because of the country’s large population and improved diets.The crop production guide ’Take Grain as the Key Link’ prompted peasants to plant grain on most of the agricultural land,leading to the majority of fertilizer being used in grain crops for many years in China.This situation has changed dramatically in recent years.Based on data pertaining to provincial crops sown area and fertilizer use per unit area in 1998 and 2008,the temporal and spatial variations of China’s fertilizer consumption by crops were analyzed at the provincial level,and the results are presented here.(1) Fertilizer consumption in China grew strongly in the last decade,while the growth was mainly attributable to the increase of fertilizer con-sumption by horticultural crops.The fertilizer consumption of grain crops dropped from 71.0% in 1998 to 57.8% in 2008.Thus,it is concluded that the emphasis of fertilizer consumption is shifting toward horticultural crops.(2) There were marked differences in the growth rates of fertilizer consumption from the regional point of view.The national average growth rate of fertilizer consumption was 31.9% during 1998-2008.The western and northeastern parts of the country came close to the national average,while the eastern part was lower,with an average of 13.0%,and central China was much higher(50.8%).The increase of fertilizer consumption in central and west China was higher than the other zones,which already ac-counted for 77.9% of the national total.Thus,it is concluded that the consumption emphasis of chemical fertilizer shifts toward the central and western regions.(3) The decline of fertilizer consumption by grain crops was largely due to the decrease in sown area compared with the increase by vegetable crops attributable to the enlarging sown area;the increase by orchard crops was affected by both expanding the sown area and fertilizer use per unit area.     

近30年中国东北地区玉米种植体系的时空动态分析(英文)

Understanding crop patterns and their changes on regional scale is a critical requirement for projecting agro-ecosystem dynamics. However, tools and methods for mapping the distribution of crop area and yield are still lacking. Based on the cross-entropy theory, a spatial production allocation model(SPAM) has been developed for presenting spatio-temporal dynamics of maize cropping system in Northeast China during 1980–2010. The simulated results indicated that(1) maize sown area expanded northwards to 48°N before 2000, after that the increased sown area mainly occurred in the central and southern parts of Northeast China. Meanwhile, maize also expanded eastwards to 127°E and lower elevation(less than 100 m) as well as higher elevation(mainly distributed between 200 m and 350 m);(2) maize yield has been greatly promoted for most planted area of Northeast China, especially in the planted zone between 42°N and 48°N, while the yield increase was relatively homogeneous without obvious longitudinal variations for whole region;(3) maize planting density increased gradually to a moderately high level over the investigated period, which reflected the trend of aggregation of maize cultivation driven by market demand.     

中国流动人口空间格局的演变特征、形成机制及城镇化效应——基于2000和2010年人口普查分县数据的分析（英文）

China has witnessed unprecedented urbanization over the past decades.The rapid expansion of urban population has been dominantly contributed by the floating population from rural areas,of which the spatiotemporal patterns,driving forces,and multidimensional effects are scrutinized and evaluated in this study by using the latest national censuses conducted in 2000 and 2010.Analysis based on the county-level data comes to conclusions as follows.The spatial pattern of floating population has remained stable over the first decade of the new century.The top 1%cities with the largest floating population received 45.5% of all migrants in China.As the rapid development of mega-city regions,the coastal concentration areas of floating population tended to geographically united as a whole,whereas the spatial distribution of migrants within each region varied significantly.The migrant concentration area in the Yangtze River Delta was the largest and its expansion was also the most salient.However,the floating population has growingly moved into provincial capitals and other big cities in the inland regions and its gravity center has moved northward for around 110 km during the study period.The spatial pattern of floating population has been formed jointly by the state and market forces in transitional China and the impacts of state forces have been surpassed by those of market forces in the country as a whole.The attractiveness of coastal cities and counties to the floating population comes mainly from the nonagricultural employment opportunities and public services,reflecting that long-distance and long-term migrants have moved coastward not only to gain employment but also to enjoy city life.By contrast,in the central and western regions,places with a higher economic development level and at a higher administrative level are more attractive to floating populations,demonstrating that the state remains to play an important role in allocating economic resources and promoting regional development in inland China.As the main body of new urban residents,the floating population has contributed substantially to the elevation of the urbanization levels of migrant-sending and-receiving places,by 20.0% nd 49.5% respectively.Compared with extensively investigated interprovincial migrants,intra-provincial migrants have higher intention and ability to permanently live in cities and thus might become the main force of China’s urbanization in the coming decades.The internal migration has also reshaped China’s urban system in terms of its hierarchical organization and spatial structure.     

1960-2007年中国地表潜在蒸散发敏感性的时空变化(英文)

Potential evapotranspiration (E0), as an estimate of the evaporative demand of the atmosphere, has been widely studied in the fields of irrigation management, crop water demand and predictions in ungauged basins (PUBs). Analysis of the sensitivity of E0 to meteorological factors is a basic research on the impact of climate change on water resources, and also is important to the optimal allocation of agricultural water resources. This paper dealt with sensitivity of E0 over China, which was divided into ten drainage systems, including Songhua River basin, Liaohe River basin, Haihe River basin, Yellow River basin, Yangtze River basin, Pearl River basin, Huaihe River drainage system, Southeast river drainage system, Northwest river drainage system and Southwest river drainage system. In addition, the calculation method of global radiation in Penman-Monteith formula was improved by optimization, and the sensitivities of Penman-Monteith potential evapotranspiration to the daily maximum temperature (STmax), daily minimum temperature (STmin), wind speed (SU2), global radiation (SRs) and vapor pressure (SVP) were calculated and analyzed based on the long-term meteorological data from 653 meteorological stations in China during the period 1960-2007. Results show that: (1) the correlation coefficient between E0 and pan evaporation increased from 0.61 to 0.75. E0 had the decline trends in eight of ten drainage systems in China, which indicates that "pan evaporation paradox" commonly exists in China from 1960 to 2007. (2) Spatially, Tmax was the most sensitive factor in Haihe River basin, Yellow River basin, Huaihe River drainage system, Yangtze River basin, Pearl River basin and Southeast river drainage system, and VP was the most sensitive factor in Songhua River Basin, Liaohe River basin, Northwest river drainage system while Rs was the most sensitive factor in Southwest river drainage system. For the nation-wide average, the most sensitive factor was VP, followed by Tmax, Rs, U2 and Tmin. In addition, the changes in sensitivity coefficients had a certain correlation with elevation. (3) Temporally, the maximum values of STmax and SRs occurred in July, while the maximum values of STmin, SVP and SU2 occurred in January. Moreover, trend analysis indicates that STmax had decline trends, while STmin, SU2, SRs and SVP had increasing trends.     

基于情景的中国1951-2010年极端高温灾害的危险性分析(英文)

China is physically and socio-economically susceptible to global warming-derived high temperature extremes because of its vast area and high urban population density. This article presents a scenario-based analysis method for high temperature extremes aimed at illustrating the latter’s hazardous potential and exposure across China. Based on probability analysis, high temperature extreme scenarios with return periods of 5, 10, 20, and 50 years were designed, with a high temperature hazard index calculated by integrating two differentially-weighted extreme temperature indices (maximum temperature and high temperature days). To perform the exposure analysis, a land use map was employed to determine the spatial distribution of susceptible human activities under the different scenarios. The results indicate that there are two heat-prone regions and a sub-hotspot occupying a relatively small land area. However, the societal and economic consequences of such an environmental impact upon the North China Plain and middle/lower Yangtze River Basin would be substantial due to the concentration of human activities in these areas.