Social barriers in wind power implementation in The Netherlands: Perceptions of wind power entrepreneurs and local civil servants of institutional and social conditions in realizing wind power projects

The primary social factors for the implementation of wind energy projects in a liberalized market are entrepreneurs willing to invest. Understanding conditions that trigger entrepreneurs to invest in these projects, and understanding conditions that determine the chance of success for entrepreneurs to implement and exploit their projects, is vital for setting up effective policies to stimulate wind electricity generation. This paper analyses the way in which wind power entrepreneurs and local civil servants experience social and institutional conditions in the operational process of realizing wind power projects, and their perceptions of policy implications. A groups support system in an electronic board room was used to analyze the perceptions. From the analysis it was concluded that wind power entrepreneurs and civil servants share the opinion that the institutionally embedded power position of local politicians, and the sensitiveness of the local political debate for the popular opinion are most critical for project realization. With regard to the proposed solutions, both groups differ in their approach. Entrepreneurs stress procedural solutions, such as limiting the possibilities to appeal, reducing the complexity of the formal authorization trajectory and using a top down planning approach. Civil servants stress more strategic solutions, such as providing more public information on the necessity of wind power for local politicians and citizens, and community involvement in planning processes. Finally, the analysis explains that steering strategies that have been developed at the national level to solve the planning problems at the operational level do not address the right problems.     

Offshore wind power policy and planning in Sweden

The main objective of this paper is to analyze the role of policy support schemes and planning systems for inducing offshore wind power development in Sweden. Specifically, it highlights the different types of economic, political and planning-related conditions that face offshore wind power investors in Sweden, and provides brief comparisons to the corresponding investment conditions in Denmark, Norway and the UK. The analysis shows that in Sweden existing policy incentives are generally too weak to promote a significant development of offshore wind power, and the paper provides a discussion about a number of political and economic aspects on the choice between different support schemes for offshore wind in the country. Swedish permitting and planning procedures, though, appear favorable to such a development, not the least in comparison to the corresponding processes in the other major offshore wind countries in Europe (e.g., the UK). On a general level the paper illustrates that the success and failure stories of national offshore wind policies and institutions cannot be easily transferred across country borders, and the analysis shows that both the political and the legal frameworks governing the investment situation for offshore wind farms in Denmark, Norway, Sweden and the UK differ significantly.     

风力发电项目多目标决策研究

随着风力发电技术的不断发展,风力发电已成为我国重点发展的可再生能源产业。如何科学有效地选择风电项目,既关系到投资商的切身利益,也关系到风能的有效开发利用。文章利用层次分析法,在分析风电项目关键影响因素的基础上,建立多目标决策的风电项目评价模型,以帮助开发商选择合适的风电场项目,促进风能的开发利用。     

Socio-economic impacts of community wind power projects in Northern Scotland

The production renewable energy is a promising sector for social enterprises located in the remote northern communities of Scotland. Community wind power offers a way to generate resources to be re-invested in local development purposes, such as community businesses, social services and infrastructure and communications. In this study, a regional input–output modelling is applied to the analysis of the socio-economic impacts of 11 wind farms of community-based social enterprises located in the Outer Hebrides, Shetland and Orkney. The results show significant socio-economic benefits of re-investing revenues for social purposes. For instance, strategic re-investments of revenues in local social services generate about tenfold additional employment and income impact compared with the impact of wind power production. Our socio-economic analyses find that community-based social enterprises are one promising solution for place-based regional development in the European northern periphery.     

Capacity factor prediction and planning in the wind power generation industry

The common practice to calculate wind generation capacity values relies more on heuristic approximations than true system estimations. In this paper we proposed a more accurate method. In the first part of our analysis, a Monte Carlo simulation was created based on Markov chains to provide an independent estimate of the true behavior of wind farm capacity value as a function of system penetration. With this curve as a baseline, a technique for using beta distributions to model the input variables was adopted. A final step to increase accuracy involved the use of numerical convolution within the program to eliminate summation estimates.     

我国风电特许权项目电价政策缺陷与对策

风能资源的开发对改善我国能源消费结构、缓解电力供需矛盾、促进经济发展具有重要作用,风电特许权项目在推动我国风能资源开发、风电产业发展方面起到了关键作用。风电特许权电价政策是推进特许权项目良性发展、实现特许权项目政策初衷的核心要素,对其他风电项目甚至总体风能资源的开发都具有重要的示范作用。文章讨论了目前风电价格政策在风电项目招标和项目运行过程中存在的缺陷,并提出了在招标、运营和售电阶段分别引入区间电价、动态电价和分段电价机制的政策构想,可以为完善下个阶段风电特许权项目提供一些有益参考。     

Implementation of wind energy in the Netherlands: the importance of the social–institutional setting

This paper analyses the differences in performance of the different types of wind power entrepreneurs now active on the wind power supply market in the Netherlands. The development of the market is divided into three successive market periods: Monopoly powers (1989–1995), Interbellum (1996–1997) and Free market (1998–2002). For each of these periods, the interdependency between various systemic conditions—technical, economic, institutional and social conditions—is analysed, with the focus on the relative importance of the institutional and social settings for market development. This interdependency is analysed using the implementation capacity concept. Implementation capacity is defined as the total of those systemic conditions and mutual interdependencies that influence the behaviour of wind power entrepreneurs. It indicates the feasibility for wind power entrepreneurs to adopt wind turbines. From the analysis it was concluded that no overall implementation capacity exists, and implementation capacities differ for entrepreneurial groups with different entrepreneurial features. With respect to the relative importance of institutional and social conditions, it became clear, that it is mainly these conditions that differentiate between the various entrepreneurial groups. The dynamic configuration of institutional and social conditions facilitates some and hinders other types of wind power entrepreneurs, and as a result determines the development and composition of the market. Finally, the analysis explains the changing roles of entrepreneurial groups throughout the 1990s.     

Persistence of low wind speed conditions and implications for wind power variability

As the penetration of wind generation increases on power systems throughout the world, the effects of wind variability on power systems are of increasing concern. This study focuses on sustained occurrences of low wind speeds over durations ranging from 1 h to 20 days. Such events have major implications for the variability of energy yields from wind farms. This, in turn, influences the accuracy of wind resource assessment. The frequency analysis techniques commonly used to study wind variability cannot represent the autocorrelation properties of wind speeds and thus provide no information on the probabilities of occurrence of such sustained, low wind events. We present two complementary methods for assessing wind variability, runs analysis and intensity–duration–frequency analysis, both with emphasis on characterising the occurrence of continuous, extended periods (up to several days) of low wind speeds. Multi‐annual time series of hourly wind speeds from meteorological stations in Ireland are analysed with both techniques. Sustained 20‐day periods corresponding to extremely low levels of wind generation are found to have return periods of around 10 years in coastal areas. Persistent, widespread low wind speed conditions across the entire country are found to occur only rarely. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Critical success factors for BOT electric power projects in China: Thermal power versus wind power

Chinese electric power industry has adopted Build–Operate–Transfer (BOT) approach in a number of projects to alleviate the pressure of sole state-owned investment. The Chinese government has taken enormous efforts to create an environment to facilitate the application of BOT approach in electric power projects. Moreover, the growing attention on the sustainability issues puts the traditional major source of electricity – thermal power project under more strict scrutiny. As a result, various renewable energy projects, particularly the wind power projects have involved private sector funds. Both thermal power and wind power projects via BOT approach have met with a varying degree of success. Therefore, it is imperative to understand the factors contributing towards the success of both types of BOT power projects. Using an extensive literature survey, this paper identifies 31 success factors under 5 categories for Chinese BOT electric power projects. This is followed by a questionnaire survey to exam relative significance of these factors. The results reveal the different levels of significance of success factors for BOT thermal power projects versus wind power projects. Finally, survey results were analyzed to explore the underlying construction and distributions among the identified success factors. This study provides a valuable reference for all involved parties that are interested in developing BOT electric power projects in China.     

开发风电的重要作用与有利条件

写在文前的话 :受有关单位的委托 ,近几年 ,我主持“福建省‘十五’——— 2 0 15年能源需求和发展”、“福建省新能源和可再生能源开发利用规划与政策研究”和以风电为主的“福建省可再生能源强制性市场份额政策试点研究”等三项重要课题研究工作。我们综合分析论证 ,从我省能源需求和开发条件着想 ,认为及时地抓好以风电为主的可再生能源开发利用是势在必行。历史教训不要忘记。我们千万不要重蹈上世纪末“痛失核电建设良机”的复辙 ,要紧紧抓住以风电为主的可再生能源发展的良好机遇。在风电发展初始阶段 ,虽然电量少 ,电价高 ,但只要政府给予适当的支持 ,经过几年的努力奋斗 ,就会发展壮大起来 ,为建立“稳定可靠的能源供应体系” ,调整能源结构作出应有的贡献。     

2013年后风电项目的CDM收益可行性分析

《京都议定书》第一承诺期将于2012年12月31日失效,虽然德班会议经过艰难的谈判,最终确认了第二承诺期,但是加拿大于德班会议后第2天便宣布退出《京都议定书》,不再履行强制减排义务。另外,从2013年开始,欧盟(EU-ETs)可能只接受来自最不发达国家或有双边协议国家的CDM项目。上述种种迹象表明,2013年以后中国将面临CDM需求的大幅萎缩。针对中国众多CDM项目可能面临的困境,文章以2013年后中国风电项目CDM收益可行性为例进行深入探讨,希望对正在申请注册CDM项目的中国风电项目有所启示。     

基于CVaR方法的风力发电项目投资风险度量

风力发电项目具备较为独立的特点,将CVaR方法引入风力发电项目的投资风险度量,不仅可以全面衡量技术风险、经济风险、政策风险等相关风险因素,同时可以最大限度地考虑投资者的损失承受底线。借助蒙特卡洛方法模拟风力发电的上网电量,很好地计量了风力发电的不确定性所带来的风险。以内蒙古地区某一风力发电项目为实例,分别计算了其VaR值和CVaR值。计算结果表明,CVaR方法能够更加谨慎有效地估计风力发电项目投资者的潜在损失。文章进一步研究了贴现率和电价等风险因素对风力发电项目整体风险的影响,认为较低的贴现率和较高的电价水平能够帮助投资者很好地规避投资风险。     

Operation planning of hydrogen storage connected to wind power operating in a power market

In this paper, a methodology for the operation of a hybrid plant with wind power and hydrogen storage is presented. Hydrogen produced from electrolysis is used for power generation in a stationary fuel cell and as fuel for vehicles. Forecasts of wind power are used for maximizing the expected profit from power exchange in a day-ahead market, also taking into account a penalty cost for unprovided hydrogen demand. During online operation, a receding horizon strategy is applied to determine the setpoints for the electrolyzer power and the fuel cell power. Results from three case studies of a combined wind-hydrogen plant are presented. In the first two cases, the plant is assumed to be operating in a power market dominated by thermal and hydropower, respectively. The third case demonstrates that the operating principles are also useful for isolated wind-hydrogen systems with backup generation.     

Techno-economics of small wind electric generator projects for decentralized power supply in India

A techno-economic evaluation of small wind electric generator (SWEG) projects for providing decentralized power supply in remote locations in India is presented. SWEG projects that have either been implemented or are under implementation have been considered. The capital costs of the SWEG projects and sub-systems have been analysed. Levelised unit cost of electricity (LUCE) has been estimated for 19 select places located in different geographical regions of the country. The LUCE is found to vary in the range of Rs. 4.67–83.02/kWh (US$¹ 0.10–1.86/kWh) for wind electric generator projects in the capacity range 3.2–50 kW with annual mean wind speed variation in the range 5–10 m/s. Issues relating to their environmental impact(s), barriers to diffusion and institutional mechanism(s) to implement such projects have also been discussed.     

大型风电项目平准化成本模型研究

平准化成本(LCOE)是国内外学者广泛应用于评估各种发电技术综合竞争力的经济性指标。文章根据LCOE的基本原理及平准化成本分析模型,提出了适用于我国大型风电项目的 LCOE分析模型,并进行了算例分析;结合算例,探讨了影响风电项目LCOE的敏感性因素,对不同情景下的LCOE进行了预测研究。该研究结果对于风电项目的经济性评估及风电产业的发展具有重要的意义。     

The rise of community wind power in Japan: Enhanced acceptance through social innovation

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the socio-economic dynamics that are brought about by renewable energy technologies. We call this dynamic “Social Innovation” as it changes the rules of risk–benefit distribution and the roles of social actors. For this purpose, we take up a typical case in Japan, community wind power in which the initial cost is funded by the investment of citizens. Through this case study, we examine how the citizens’ initiative can affect the social acceptance of renewable energy as well as social change. Based on interviews with those involved in these projects, we analyze the interests of the various actors involved in community wind power projects in a framework of “actor network theory”, which enables us to understand the detail of each actor's position. This study also involved a quantitative survey of investors. The case study clarified that there was a remarkable difference in the interests of the main actors in the community wind power projects, the networks are complex and actors share various interests such as economic interests and a sense of social commitment, participation and contribution. These incentives are also clarified in quantitative data. However, the variety of incentives differs in each project.     

考虑静暂态电压稳定性的风电并网系统无功规划

文章提出了计及风电及负荷出力不确定的考虑静暂态电压稳定的风电并网系统无功规划方法。建立了以降低网损、无功规划成本和提高静暂态电压稳定性为目标的风电并网系统无功规划模型,利用高斯反向学习粒子群优化算法(GOL-PSO)求解不同风电参与方式的无功规划方案,比较得到风电最佳参与规划方式及风电并网系统最优无功规划方案。最后,利用Matlab对风电并网的IEEE39系统进行无功规划仿真测试,验证所提方法的正确性和可行性。     

风力发电系统中组合风速的建模及仿真

在实验室进行风力发电系统模拟,风速模拟是其中重要的一个环节,正确的风速模型不仅可以反应风速实际变化情况,而且能给风力发电系统的模拟研究提供准确的参数。文章采用4分量组合风速模型,用Matlab/Simulink对组合风速进行建模仿真。仿真结果表明,该数学模型能够较精确地反映风速的实际突变性、渐变性及随机性等特点,适用于风力发电系统的模拟研究工作。     

A comparative analysis of business structures suitable for farmer-owned wind power projects in the United States

For years, farmers in the United States have looked with envy on their European counterparts’ ability to profitably farm the wind through ownership of distributed, utility-scale wind projects. Only within the past few years, however, has farmer- or community-owned wind power development become a reality in the United States. The primary hurdle to this type of development in the United States has been devising and implementing suitable business and legal structures that enable such projects to take advantage of tax-based federal incentives for wind power. This article discusses the limitations of such incentives in supporting farmer- or community-owned wind projects, describes four ownership structures that potentially overcome such limitations, and finally conducts comparative financial analysis on those four structures, using as an example a hypothetical 1.5 MW farmer-owned project located in the state of Oregon. We find that material differences in the competitiveness of each structure do exist, but that choosing the best structure for a given project will largely depend on the conditions at hand; e.g., the ability of the farmer(s) to utilize tax credits, preference for individual versus “cooperative” ownership, and the state and utility service territory in which the project will be located.