Linking variability of tree water use and growth with species resilience to environmental changes

Tree growth is an indicator of tree vitality and its temporal variability is linked to species resilience to environmental changes. Second-order statistics that quantify the cross-scale temporal variability of ecophysiological time series (statistical memory) could provide novel insights into species resilience. Species with high statistical memory in their tree growth may be more affected by disturbances, resulting in lower overall resilience and higher vulnerability to environmental changes. Here, we assessed the statistical memory, as quantified with the decay in standard deviation with increasing time scale, in tree water use and growth of co-occurring European larch Larix decidua and Norway spruce Picea abies along an elevational gradient in the Swiss Alps using measurements of stem radius changes, sap flow and tree-ring widths. Local-scale interspecific differences between the two conifers were further explored at the European scale using data from the International Tree-Ring Data Bank. Across the analysed elevational gradient, tree water use showed steeper variability decay with increasing time scale than tree growth, with no significant interspecific differences, highlighting stronger statistical memory in tree growth processes. Moreover, Norway spruce displayed slower decay in growth variability with increasing time scale (higher statistical memory) than European larch; a pattern that was also consistent at the European scale. The higher statistical memory in tree growth of Norway spruce in comparison to European larch is indicative of lower resilience of the former in comparison to the latter, and could potentially explain the occurrence of European larch at higher elevations at the Alpine treeline. Single metrics of resilience cannot often summarize the multifaceted aspects of ecosystem functioning, thus, second-order statistics that quantify the strength of statistical memory in ecophysiological time series could complement existing resilience indicators, facilitating the assessment of how environmental changes impact forest growth trajectories and ecosystem services.