How much can we trust China’s investment statistics?

Abstract

Building upon recent research into the underestimation of China’s official final consumption expenditure, this paper investigates the quality of China’s investment data. We strictly follow the official method to estimate the annual gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) expenditure from 2004 to 2012, and the resulting figures are significantly different from the official statistics. This implies that the ‘total investment in fixed assets’ data, which are the primary source for the estimation of GFCF, grossly exaggerate actual investments, and that the official GFCF figures are not, strictly speaking, independently estimated, as they are purported to be. We deduce that the official gross capital formation figure is more or less a residual item obtained by subtracting final consumption and net exports from the official GDP figure that is calculated based on the production-cum-income approach. As a result, the underestimation of China’s consumption expenditure automatically translates into overestimation of investment expenditure. We conclude that China’s official consumption and investment statistics cannot be trusted as the basis for policy discussions and academic research.     

Depreciation,inflation and capital replacement*

Abstract. This paper examines the effects of depreciation, taxes and inflation on the optimal timing of asset replacement in accordance with the Canadian tax laws. The main findings are that an increase in the capital cost allowance rate will delay (accelerate) replacement of fixed assets at low (high) levels of capital cost allowance rates, and that an increase in the annual inflation rate will delay (accelerate) replacement of fixed assets at low (high) levels of inflation. The applications of the replacement model are illustrated with numerical examples.     

How would Capital Account Liberalization Affect China＇s Capital Flows and the Renminbi Real Exchange Rates？

In this paper we study the determinants of gross capital flows, project the size of China's international investment position in 2020, and analyze the implications for the renminbi real exchange rate if China liberalizes the capital account. We assume in this exercise that the renminbi will have largely achieved capital account convertibility by the end of the current decade, a timetable consistent with recent proposals by the People's Bank of China. Our analysis shows that if the capital account were liberalized, China's gross international investment position would grow significantly, and inflows and outflows would become much more balanced. The private sector would turn its net liability position into a balanced position, and the official sector would reduce its net asset position significantly, relative to the country's GDP. Because of the increasing importance of private sector foreign claims and the decreasing importance of official foreign reserves, China would be able to earn higher net investment income from abroad. Overall, China would continue to be a net creditor, with the net foreign asset position as a share of GDP remaining largely stable through this decade. These findings suggest that the renminbi real exchange rate would not be particularly sensitive to capital account liberalization as capital flows are expected to be two‐sided. The renminbi real exchange rate would likely be on a path of moderate appreciation as China is expected to maintain a sizeable growth differential with its trading partners.     

上海市物质资本存量估算:1978～2007

本文考察了当前较多采用的几种代表性的物质资本存量估算方法,讨论了基年资本存量、固定资产投资价格指数、当年投资以及折旧等物质资本存量估算四个基本变量的指标选取和计算.根据目前国内已有统计数据,采用不同方法具体估算和比较了上海改革开放开放30年间的总体物质资本存量及分三大产业的资本存量,发现上海总体资本存量、三大产业资本积累及资本-产出比的变动趋势,说明上海经济增长方式和产业结构的调整符合经济发展的一般规律.     

Do international investment income flows smooth income?

Do International Investment Income Flows Smooth Income? — One mechanism by which international capital market integration can smooth consumption is to stabilize national income. In order to provide income smoothing, net international investment income should negatively co-vary with GDP. Moreover, to maximize stabilization of GNP in the face of GDP fluctuations, the yield on foreign assets should move countercyclically and the yield on foreign liabilities procyclically. In both time series and panel settings, we reject these hypotheses, suggesting that positive gross international investment income positions are not associated with income smoothing at businesscycle frequencies.     

中部地区对外贸易影响因素的实证分析

长期以来，尽管中部地区对外贸易取得了较快地发展，但在全国依然处于比较落后的地位。本文利用最新时间序列数据，通过建立多变量回归模型，对中部地区对外贸易的影响因素进行了实证分析。分析认为，中部地区出口贸易和进口贸易的影响因素存在很大差异。出口贸易影响因素主要是贸易条件、进口贸易和全社会固定资产投资；而进口贸易的主要影响因素是汇率、国内生产总值、外商直接投资和人力资本；很多影响因素对中部地区对外贸易没有起到应有的作用。     

Building original series of physical capital stocks for China's economy methodological problems,proposals for solutions and a new database

There are to date no official Chinese statistics relating to capital stocks. This lacking data hinders econometric studies of growth in this country. Series of such stocks are proposed in the literature, but most available empirical work on this topic suffers multiple deficiencies. The purpose of this article is to build the most reliable and longest possible statistical series of capital stocks for China. Our initial capital stocks are calculated on the basis of an output-capital ratio which is less approximate (and lower) than those generally provided. Our investment flows are consistent with the perimeters of the initial stocks. Our investment price indices are strictly tailored to the content of these stocks, and the unit root tests show that all the indices are non-stationary and cointegrated to the order of 2. This means they cannot be substitutes, as supposed in many other studies. Our depreciation rates are estimated by type of capital, under assumptions consistent with age-efficiency and retirement. Investment shares are used to approximate an overall capital structure and to calculate a total depreciation rate. Built from 1952 to 2014, our original series are available to econometricians seeking to conduct new empirical studies on China, over the long run.     

Understanding PRC investment statistics

Investment statistics of the People's Republic of China are a source of much consternation. Fixed asset investment, a concept originating in the planned economy, comes with severe limitations. While detailed sector, ownership, and other data are available, data coverage changes continuously over time, data quality is a problem, and the concept itself is hardly appropriate for economic analysis today. Gross fixed capital formation, an alternative investment measure based on the national accounts, may be more appropriate for economic analysis but the production of these data is shrouded in mystery and only the most aggregate data are available. No matter which measure of investment one chooses, the researcher or policy-maker faces a veritable minefield of data issues that this paper helps navigate.     

On the Structure,Dynamics, and Use of the Asset Share in the National Wealth

In this article, the share of assets in the national wealth is taken as the object of analysis and forecast. The dynamics, structure and use of the basic elements of Russia’s productive assets—natural capital (energy inputs), human capital, and active fixed assets—are analyzed. It is shown that the natural capital will inevitably be replaced by human capital in combination with the asset share in fixed capital, and that the economy in the coming transition period (2018–2030) will necessarily transform to an innovative growth model.The annual balances of changes in the components of the assets in the national wealth for 2012–2016 are developed. The impact of the crisis is estimated. Some promising directions for using the accumulated human capital together with the asset share in fixed capital for a transition from a resource-based to an innovation model of Russia’s development are considered and substantiated.     

Directions of increasing the role of depreciation as a source of reproducing fixed capital in agriculture

The article presents the results of studies of the structure of sources of reproducing fixed capital in agriculture of the country and the region (Orel oblast) and assesses the place and role of depreciation in investment resources. The results of the study have allowed us to propose a series of recommendations to enhance the role of amortization as a source of renewal and modernization of fixed capital in agriculture of the region. The practical application of recommendations would contribute to solving the problem of the target use of funds of depreciation and economic growth in the agricultural sector, as well as raise incomes of the regional budget of the subject of the Russian Federation.     

External adjustment

Gross stocks of foreign assets have increased rapidly relative to national outputs since 1990, and the short-run capital gains and losses on those assets can amount to significant fractions of GDP. These fluctuations in asset values render the national income and product account measure of the current account balance increasingly inadequate as a summary of the change in a country's net foreign assets. Nonetheless, unusually large current account imbalances, especially deficits, should remain high on policymakers' list of concerns, even, for the richer and less credit-constrained countries. Extreme imbalances signal the need for large and perhaps abrupt real exchange rate changes in the future, changes that might have undesired political and financial consequences given the incompleteness of domestic and international asset markets. Furthermore, of the two sources of the change in net foreign assets—the current account and the capital gain on the net foreign asset position—the former is better understood and more amenable to policy influence. Systematic government attempts to manipulate international asset values in order to change the net foreign asset position could have a destabilizing effect on market expectations. JEL no. F21, F32, F36, F41     

Do contagion effects exist in capital flow volatility?

The cross-border transmission of a financial shock has been a subject of rich literature. While a large number of studies have focused on the phenomenon of strong co-movements of asset prices and capital flows in the event of financial stress, very few discussed the contagion or spillover effects in terms of capital flow volatility. This paper is one of the first attempts to assess, empirically, whether or not there is a global and regional spillover effect in the volatility of capital flows to emerging and developing countries. Based on the sample of 49 emerging and developing countries for the period 1980–2009, the empirical results suggest strong and significant contagion effects in the volatility of capital flows to individual economies. The magnitudes of contagion vary depending on the type of capital flows, whether it is foreign direct investment (FDI) or portfolio and other investment (mostly bank lending). The findings also suggest the volatility dynamics of gross flows is different from that of net flows. The volatility of net inflows is more exposed to intra-regional contagion compared to that of gross inflows.     

The impact of an accelerated depreciation tax policy on employment: Evidence from China

We examine the impact of an accelerated depreciation tax policy (ADP) on employment. As a tax incentive policy, we expect an ADP to impact firm behavior significantly, but its effect on employment remains uninvestigated. Leveraging the two-stage implementation of an ADP in selected industries in China in 2014 and 2015 and using a difference-in-differences research design, we find that: 1) the ADP significantly increases employment, which is consistent with the output effect hypothesis; and 2) the ADP increases firms’ labor demand, mainly by stimulating investment in fixed assets and easing their financial constraints. Additional analysis suggests that the impact of ADP on employment is more salient for small firms, non-state-owned firms, and high growth firms, and skilled labor employment, indicating that the ADP is more effective for firms with high financial constraints and hiring skilled labor to accompany the increase in capital investment.     

我国城乡收入差距与固定资产投资差距的实证分析

文章运用时间序列分析,对1983—2007年我国城乡收入差距与城乡固定资产投资差距的关系进行了实证研究,发现我国城乡收入差距和城乡固定资产投资差距之间存在长期均衡的协整关系和显著的短期动态调整机制。实证结果显示,需要充分重视我国的城乡收入差距与城乡固定资产投资差距之间的有机联系,缩小城乡居民收入差距主要可通过缩小城乡固定资产投资差距来实现。     

人力资本投资对我国农村居民收入的影响分析

人力资本投资对农村居民收入起到重要作用。文章通过我国31个省、市、自治区的横截面数据,建立双对数模型,重点分析了人力资本投资对我国农村居民收入的影响。研究结果表明,人力资本投资增加1％,可促使我国农村居民家庭人均纯收入增加0．23％,比固定资产投资增加的比率高出3．5614％。同时,文章通过将人均收入和人力资本投资作为两个指标对样品进行聚类分析,认为政府政策应当更加倾斜于贵州、云南、西藏、陕西、新疆、甘肃、青海、宁夏、广西等省、自治区,从而统筹中、东、西部地区的和谐发展。     

The Effect of the Exchange Rates on Investment in Mexican Manufacturing Industry

This paper, considering revenue and cost exposure channels, investigates the effects of exchange rate on fixed capital investment in Mexican manufacturing sector over 1994–2003. We find that i) currency depreciation has a positive (negative) effect on fixed investment through the export (import) channel; ii) exchange rate volatility impacts mostly export oriented sectors; iii) the sensitivity of investment to exchange rate movements is stronger in non-durable goods sectors and industries with low mark-up ratios.     

海外资产和日本经济的转型

2011年日本的国际收支出现历史性转变,贸易收支和服务收支均为赤字,所得收支成为经常收支盈余的主体。日本海外资产规模已经与其国内生产总值不相上下,海外净资产连续22年据世界首位。日本经济正经历着从"贸易立国"向"投资立国"的战略转型。日本海外资产增速快,净资产多,但是结构不合理。同欧美"枢纽式"海外资产结构相比,"单行道"式的海外资产结构表明日本经济与世界经济融合度还不高、国内创新能力不足。内外经济环境变化、企业行为变化和政府政策从不同角度推动着日本经济的转型,但存在许多不确定的因素。     

Exchange Rate Regime,Financial Market Bubbles and Long‐term Growth in China: Lessons from Japan

Since 2014, capital inflows into China have turned into capital outflows, reversing the gradual appreciation path of the renminbi against the US dollar into an erratic depreciation path. The paper explains the current capital outflows by comparing China and Japan with respect to the impact of exchange rate expectations on speculative capital flows. It is argued that both in China and Japan, given benign liquidity conditions in the USA, policy‐induced appreciation expectations have generated capital inflows that have contributed to overinvestment and financial market bubbles. The current reversal of capital flows is seen as a signal that the bubble in China has burst. To stabilize growth in China and to discourage speculative capital outflows a fixed exchange rate to the dollar is recommended. Given Japan's experience and given that China's foreign assets remain high, the depreciation pressure on the Chinese renminbi can be expected to abate.     

农村固定资产投资对农民收入的影响研究

农村基础性、生产性固定资产投资对农民经营性、工资性、财产性收入的变动具有积极的正面效应。文章采用1981—2011年的数据检验农村固定资产投资对农民收入的影响,结果认为农村固定资产投资与农民收入之间存在均衡关系,农村固定资产投资可以持久显著地增加农村居民人均纯收入,缩小城乡发展差距。     

江苏省固定资产投资与经济增长关系的实证分析

文章利用计量经济学方法,对江苏省1985-2005年的GDP及固定资产投资两时间序列数据进行了协整关系检验、误差修正模型(ECM)分析以及Granger因果检验.结果表明:江苏省的固定资产投资对经济增长有很大的拉动作用,在短期内固定资产投资增加1个百分点,GDP约增加0.81个百分点,并且二者之间还存在着长期稳定关系和双向的因果关系,在此基础上本文提出一些有针对性的建议.