基于加权HMM的车辆电源系统状态预测

针对车辆电源系统状态趋势问题,提出了一种加权隐马尔可夫模型的状态预测方法。通过建立电源系统的隐马尔可夫模型,利用加权预测思想对隐马尔可夫模型中隐状态序列进行预测,将最大概率隐状态利用观测概率密度计算出状态观测值。通过对电压调节脉宽信号的导通率进行预测,并与BP神经网络和自回归（AR）模型对相同序列的预测结果进行对比,结果表明该方法对系统的状态变化具有较好的预测能力。     

区域加权信息熵及其在图像特征提取中的应用

图像特征提取是当前基于内容图像检索领域的研究重点,然而单纯基于信息熵的图像特征提取方法无法体现图像内容的位置信息.分析现有的基于颜色-空间图像特征提取算法的基础上,结合图像信息熵概念与图像分割算法,提出了一种新的图像信息熵描述方法,即区域加权信息熵,并证明了区域加权信息熵的若干性质.采用信息熵性能评价指标从概率的角度描述因权值变化而引起的图像信息熵分布的变化,并考虑应用的兴趣区域以及权值粒度从而确定合理权值.实验表明区域加权信息熵方法比单纯信息熵方法描述图像内容准确率提高了50%以上.     

基于灰色模糊推理的油料消耗预测

为了克服传统预测方法的弊端,提出了基于灰色模糊推理的油料消耗预测方法。首先,构建了基于加权灰色关联分析的案例检索模型,且运用信息熵理论确定灰色关联系数的权重;其次,构建了模糊集理论的案例检索模型,且运用改进的层次分析法确定特征属性的权重;最后,基于上述2种检索结果,运用灰色关联分析方法构建了组合检索模型,并且基于检索结果对油料消耗进行预测。通过算例仿真,证明了上述检索方法具有较高的准确度,验证了预测方法的可行性和实用性。     

短期燃气预测的信息熵组合模型研究

城市燃气负荷量的预测对于智慧型城市智能化燃气系统来说具重要的作用并是富有挑战性的工作。针对本地区燃气负荷具有周期性特点,为提高预测精度,提出一种基于信息熵的ARIMA和BP神经网络并行组合模型预测方法。该方法在对原始数据进行离群点预处理的基本上,首先用ARIMA方法进行预测,将燃气负荷TS分解成为趋势性和季节性两种TS分别进行建模;然后在BP神经网络中采用差值训练方法对负荷量进行预测;最后在基于信息熵的原理下将以上两种方法进行组合,从而预测出未来数日的燃气日负荷量。以上三种方法的实验对比结果验证了燃气短期预测的信息熵组合模型的可行性与有效性。     

基于信息熵加权词包模型的扣件图像检测

针对传统“视觉词包模型”在进行铁路扣件检测时忽略图像结构而导致的区分能力不强的问题,提出一种基于信息熵加权词包模型的扣件检测模型EW_BOW。在传统“视觉词包模型”的基础上,引入信息熵对扣件图像局部区域的词包模型的词频进行加权处理,加强词包模型对不同类别扣件的区分性,并利用潜在狄利克雷分布学习扣件图像的主题分布。最后,采用支持向量机对扣件进行分类识别。对四类扣件图像的分类实验证明该模型能够有效提高扣件分类精确度。     

含有误差校正的小波神经网络交通流量预测

交通流量的准确预测对于高速路管理者进行决策至关重要;建立了小波神经网络(WNN)交通流量预测模型,并通过预测训练误差和测试误差校正预测结果来提高预测精度;首先构建WNN模型对交通流量进行初步预测,然后利用经验模态分解(EMD)和WNN模型对训练误差和测试误差进行预测;分别用训练误差预测值、测试误差预测值和两种误差预测值的加权对流量初步预测结果进行修正得到最终预测值;采用四川省成灌高速路交通流量数据进行了仿真对比实验,仿真结果表明含有误差校正的小波神经网络模型能有效提高交通流量预测精度,并且利用两种误差加权修正模型的预测精度高于利用测试误差的修正模型和利用训练误差的修正模型。     

基于振动频谱的磨矿过程球磨机负荷参数集成建模方法

以磨矿过程的湿式球磨机为背景, 针对传统磨机负荷(ML)检测方法只能依靠灵敏度较低的轴承振动、筒体振声和磨机功率等信号监督判断ML状态, 难以检测磨机内部负荷参数的问题, 提出了一种基于高灵敏度的筒体振动频谱的集成建模方法. 首先, 依据磨矿过程的研磨机理, 将振动频谱采用波峰聚类方法自动划分具有不同物理意义的分频段; 然后利用核偏最小二乘(KPLS)算法分别建立各分频段的ML参数子模型; 最后, 依据子模型训练数据预测误差的信息熵获得初始权重, 加权得到最终的ML参数集成预测模型; 在线使用中则根据子模型预测误差的变化进行权值的在线自适应更新. 仿真结果证明了该方法的有效性.     

KPCA-模糊加权LSSVM预测方法及其应用

针对工业系统参数缓慢变化和工业现场数据存在噪声和变量间存在多重相关性,提出了一种KPCA-模糊加权LSSVM预测方法;采用KPCA去除数据的噪声和降低样本数据各参数间的多重相关性,减少样本数据维数;针对不同时期样本数据重要程度不一样,提出了模糊加权的思想;利用改进微粒群算法(PSO)优化LSSVM模型的惩罚因子和核函数参数;以净化除钴过程生产数据进行验证分析,仿真结果表明,KPCA一模糊加权LSSVM预测模型精度高于主成分回归(PCR)和LSSVM,能满足工业现场钴离子浓度预测的要求.     

一种基于聚类加权的文本特征生成算法

目前的文本特征生成算法一般采用加权的文本向量空间模型,该模型使用TF-IDF评价函数来计算单个特征的权值,这种算法生成的文本特征冗余度往往都比较高。针对这一问题,采用了一种基于聚类加权的文本特征生成算法,首先对特征候选集进行初始加权处理;然后通过语义和信息熵对特征进行进一步加权处理;最后使用特征聚类对冗余特征进行剔除。实验表明该算法比传统的TF-IDF算法的平均分类准确率高出5%左右。     

基于自适应变量加权的汽油辛烷值预测方法

针对汽油精制过程中控制变量之间非线性和强耦联性,产品汽油中辛烷值难以测定的问题,提出一种基于自适应变量加权的汽油辛烷值预测方法.首先,利用一种新颖的变量加权模块捕获变量之间的相关性获取变量权重,通过自适应变量加权的方式提升主要变量的重要性,抑制其他次要变量的作用;然后,考虑到汽油脱硫过程对辛烷值的影响,输入加权激活后的变量到辛烷值预测模块,模型同时输出辛烷值和硫含量的预测结果;最后,基于工业数据进行模型验证,结果表明,与无变量加权模块的神经网络预测方法,基于随机森林的神经网络预测方法和基于变量加权堆叠自编码器的预测方法相比较,所提出的自适应变量加权汽油辛烷值预测方法具有更高的预测精度,可以用来优化汽油精制过程的操作条件.     

European Community policy and the market

Abstract This paper starts with some reflections on the policy considerations and priorities which are shaping European Commission (EC) research programmes. Then it attempts to position the current projects which seek to capitalise on information and communications technologies for learning in relation to these priorities and the apparent realities of the marketplace. It concludes that while there are grounds to be optimistic about the contribution EC programmes can make to the efficiency and standard of education and training, they are still too technology driven.     

一种自适应子融合集成多分类器方法

融合集成方法已经广泛应用在模式识别领域,然而一些基分类器实时性能稳定性较差,导致多分类器融合性能差,针对上述问题本文提出了一种新的基于多分类器的子融合集成分类器系统。该方法考虑在度量层融合层次之上通过对各类基多分类器进行动态选择,票数最多的类别作为融合系统中对特征向量识别的类别,构成一种新的自适应子融合集成分类器方法。实验表明,该方法比传统的分类器以及分类融合方法识别准确率明显更高,具有更好的鲁棒性。     

Explanation and prediction: an architecture for default and abductive reasoning

Although there are many arguments that logic is an appropriate tool for artificial intelligence, there has been a perceived problem with the monotonicity of classical logic. This paper elaborates on the idea that reasoning should be viewed as theory formation where logic tells us the consequences of our assumptions. The two activities of predicting what is expected to be true and explaining observations are considered in a simple theory formation framework. Properties of each activity are discussed, along with a number of proposals as to what should be predicted or accepted as reasonable explanations. An architecture is proposed to combine explanation and prediction into one coherent framework. Algorithms used to implement the system as well as examples from a running implementation are given.     

Three Process Perspectives: Organizations, Teams, and People

This paper provides the author's personal views and perspectives on software process improvement. Starting with his first work on technology assessment in IBM over 20 years ago, Watts Humphrey describes the process improvement work he has been directly involved in. This includes the development of the early process assessment methods, the original design of the CMM, and the introduction of the Personal Software Process (PSP)^SM and Team Software Process (TSP){^SM}. In addition to describing the original motivation for this work, the author also reviews many of the problems he and his associates encountered and why they solved them the way they did. He also comments on the outstanding issues and likely directions for future work. Finally, this work has built on the experiences and contributions of many people. Mr. Humphrey only describes work that he was personally involved in and he names many of the key contributors. However, so many people have been involved in this work that a full list of the important participants would be impractical.     

基于复小波噪声方差显著修正的SAR图像去噪

提出了一种基于复小波域统计建模与噪声方差估计显著性修正相结合的合成孔径雷达(Synthetic Aperture Radar,SAR)图像斑点噪声滤波方法。该方法首先通过对数变换将乘性噪声模型转化为加性噪声模型,然后对变换后的图像进行双树复小波变换(Dualtree Complex Wavelet Transform,DCWT),并对复数小波系数的统计分布进行建模。在此先验分布的基础上,通过运用贝叶斯估计方法从含噪系数中恢复原始系数,达到滤除噪声的目的。实验结果表明该方法在去除噪声的同时保留了图像的细节信息,取得了很好的降噪效果。     

How do children do mathematics with LOGO?

Abstract  This paper considers some results of a study designed to investigate the kinds of mathematical activity undertaken by children (aged between 8 and 11) as they learned to program in LOGO. A model of learning modes is proposed, which attempts to describe the ways in which children used and acquired understanding of the programming/mathematical concepts involved. The remainder of the paper is concerned with discussing the validity and limitations of the model, and its implications for further research and curriculum development.     

Editorial: Special issue on recent advances in hybrid control theory and applications

正The demands of a rapidly advancing technology for faster and more accurate controllers have always had a strong influence on the progress of automatic control theory.In recent years control problems have been arising with increasing frequency in widely different areas,which cannot be addressed using conventional control techniques.The principal reason for this is the fact that a highly competitive economy is forcing systems to operate in regimes where     

Information for Authors

正Aim The Journals of Zhejiang University-SCIENCE(A/B/C)areedited by the international board of distinguished Chinese andforeign scientists,and are aimed to present the latest devel-opments and achievements in scientific research in China andoverseas to the world’s scientific circles,especially to stimulateand promote academic exchange between Chinese and for-eign scientists everywhere.     

Enhancing a leaf radiative transfer model to estimate concentrations and in vivo specific absorption coefficients of total carotenoids and chlorophylls a and b from single-needle reflectance and transmittance

The relative concentrations of different pigments within a leaf have significant physiological and spectral consequences. Photosynthesis, light use efficiency, mass and energy exchange, and stress response are dependent on relationships among an ensemble of pigments. This ensemble also determines the visible characteristics of a leaf, which can be measured remotely and used to quantify leaf biochemistry and structure. But current remote sensing approaches are limited in their ability to resolve individual pigments. This paper focuses on the incorporation of three pigments—chlorophyll a, chlorophyll b, and total carotenoids—into the LIBERTY leaf radiative transfer model to better understand relationships between leaf biochemical, biophysical, and spectral properties.Pinus ponderosa and Pinus jeffreyi needles were collected from three sites in the California Sierra Nevada. Hemispheric single-leaf visible reflectance and transmittance and concentrations of chlorophylls a and b and total carotenoids of fresh needles were measured. These data were input to the enhanced LIBERTY model to estimate optical and biochemical properties of pine needles. The enhanced model successfully estimated reflectance (RMSE = 0.0255, BIAS = 0.00477, RMS%E = 16.7%), had variable success estimating transmittance (RMSE = 0.0442, BIAS = 0.0294, RMS%E = 181%), and generated very good estimates of carotenoid concentrations (RMSE = 2.48 µg/cm², BIAS = 0.143 µg/cm², RMS%E = 20.4%), good estimates of chlorophyll a concentrations (RMSE = 10.7 µg/cm², BIAS = − 0.992 µg/cm², RMS%E = 21.1%), and fair estimates of chlorophyll b concentrations (RMSE = 7.49 µg/cm², BIAS = − 2.12 µg/cm², RMS%E = 43.7%). Overall root mean squared errors of reflectance, transmittance, and pigment concentration estimates were lower for the three-pigment model than for the single-pigment model. The algorithm to estimate three in vivo specific absorption coefficients is robust, although estimated values are distorted by inconsistencies in model biophysics. The capacity to invert the model from single-leaf reflectance and transmittance was added to the model so it could be coupled with vegetation canopy models to estimate canopy biochemistry from remotely sensed data.     

Mr. Twinn’s bombes

This article discusses the history and design of the special versions of the bombe key-finding machines used by Britain’s Government Code & Cypher School (GC&CS) during World War II to attack the Enigma traffic of the Abwehr (the German military intelligence service). These special bombes were based on the design of their more numerous counterparts used against the traffic of the German armed services, but differed from them in important ways that highlight the adaptability of the British bombe design, and the power and flexibility of the diagonal board. Also discussed are the changes in the Abwehr indicating system that drove the development of these machines, the ingenious ways in which they were used, and some related developments involving the bombes used by the U.S. Navy’s cryptanalytic unit (OP-20-G).