Time scale effect and uncertainty in reconstruction of paleo‐hydrology

Tree‐ring‐based reconstructions of paleo‐hydrology have proved useful for better understanding the irregularities and extent of past climate changes, and therefore, for more effective water resources management. Despite considerable advances in the field, there still exist challenges that introduce significant uncertainties into paleo‐reconstructions. This study outlines these challenges and address them by developing two themes: (1) the effect of temporal scaling on the strength of the relationship between the hydrologic variables, streamflow in this study, and tree growth rates and (2) the reconstruction uncertainty of streamflow due to the dissimilarity or inconsistency in the pool of tree‐ring chronologies (predictors in reconstruction) in a basin. Based on the insight gained, a methodology is developed to move beyond only relying on the annual hydrology‐growth correlations, and to utilize additional information embedded in the annual time series at longer time scales (e.g. multi‐year to decadal time scales). This methodology also generates an ensemble of streamflow reconstructions to formally account for uncertainty in the pool of chronology sites. The major headwater tributaries of the Saskatchewan River Basin, the main source of surface water in the Canadian Prairie Provinces, are used as the case study. It is shown that the developed methodology explains the variance of streamflows to a larger extent than the conventional approach and better preserves the persistence and variability of streamflows across time scales (Hurst‐type behaviour). The resulting ensemble of paleo‐hydrologic time series is able to more credibly pinpoint the timing and extent of past dry and wet periods and provides a dynamic range of uncertainty in reconstruction. This range varies with time over the course of the reconstruction period, indicating that the utility of tree‐ring chronologies for paleo‐reconstruction differs for different time periods over the past several centuries in the history of the region. The proposed ensemble approach provides a credible range of multiple‐century‐long water availability scenarios that can be used for vulnerability assessment of the existing water infrastructure and improving water resources management. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

太阳活动千年尺度的准周期性波动

2004年,Solanki等人利用树木年轮中δ14C含量变化重建的太阳黑子数序列研究太阳活动的论文被Nature发表,该黑子序列自1895年起向历史时期延伸了11400年.本文采用最大熵谱分析方法和小波变换方法分析了这一重建的太阳黑子序列,重点讨论太阳活动在千年尺度上的周期性波动.结果表明,太阳活动的长期变化中存在接近千年和略大于两千年的准周期信号,以及可能存在约7千年的波动,得到了这些准周期分量的参数.这些准周期分量的周期长度和振幅是随着时间变化的,文中给出了它们的时变图象并讨论了它们的时变特征.     

Catchment transit times and landscape controls—does scale matter?

Mean transit times (MTTs) can give useful insights into the internal processes of hydrological systems. However, our understanding of how they vary and scale remains unclear. We used MTT estimates obtained from δ¹⁸O data from 20, mostly nested, contrasting catchments in North East Scotland, ranging from 1 to 1700 km². The estimated MTTs ranged between 270 and 1170 days and were used to test a previously developed multiple linear regression (MLR) model for MTT prediction based on metrics of soil cover, landscape organization and climate. We show that the controls on MTT identified by the MLR model hold with the independent data from these 20 sites and that the MLR can be used to predict MTT in ungauged montane catchments. The dominant controls also remain unchanged over four orders of magnitude of catchment size, suggesting no major change of dominant flow paths and mixing processes at larger scales. This is consistent with the fact that only the variance of MTT, rather than MTT, showed a scaling relationship. MTTs appeared to converge with increasing catchment scale, apparently due to the integration of heterogeneous headwater responses in larger downstream catchments. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spectral scaling in Mars topography: effect of craters

Extensive computer simulations aimed at testing a hypothesis that impact craters may explain the scaling behaviour of surface spectra are presented. The simulations show that indeed crater effects alone may explain the spectral scaling of Mars’ topography revealed from MOLA data. The range of the scaling exponents obtained for a wide range of simulation parameters does not exceed the limits observed for Mars. The simulations suggest that the shape of large craters is the key factor leading to the two scaling ranges in the surface spectra. Particular values of the scaling exponents may additionally depend on the depth-diameter relationship and the crater size distribution.     

Generalised scale invariance and multiplicative processes in the atmosphere

Many geophysical fields show highly intermittent fractal structures spanning wide ranges of scale. However, few are isotropic: texture, stratification, as well as variable (scale dependent) orientation of structures is far more common. To deal with such fractals, we must generalise the idea of scale invariance beyond the familiar self-similar (or even self-affine) notions. Taking the atmosphere as our primary example (however, we also model galaxies), we outline the necessary formalism (generalised scale invariance), and show how it can be used to deal with the strongly intermittent structures which result from multiplicative (cascade type) processes concentrating matter or energy into smaller and smaller scales.We illustrate these ideas with rain data from blotting paper and radar, showing first how to directly estimate the elliptical dimension characterising the stratification, and second, how to determine universal scale-independent (invariant) codimension functions that characterise the distribution of the intense rain regions.     

基于物理小波的频谱分解方法及应用研究

在地震资料频谱分解中,采用匹配地震子波的物理小波,依据地震信号的特征,用振幅、能量衰减率、能量延迟时间及地震子波的中心频率等四类参数构造基本小波,把地震信号分解在小波域,高频分量能够得到精细的刻画.本文以物理小波变换为工具, 给出了该变换中的核函数的选择方法,进而提出了基于物理小波变换的频谱成像方法.我们将此方法用于海上某油田河流相储层的描述,并与常规软件中的小波变换频谱成像结果进行了对比, 结果表明,本文提出的方法更能精细地刻画地质事件.     

The effect of amplitude scaling limits on conditional spectrum-based ground motion selection

Amplitude scaling is commonly used to select ground motions matching a target response spectrum. In this paper, the effect of scaling limits on ground motion selection, based on the conditional spectrum framework, is investigated. Target spectra are computed for four probabilistic seismic hazard cases in Western United States, and 16 ground motion suites are selected using different scaling limits (ie, 2, 5, 10, and 15). Comparison of spectral acceleration distributions of the selected ground motion suites demonstrates that the use of a scaling limit of 2 yields a relatively poor representation of the target spectra, because of the small limit leading to an insufficient number of available ground motions. It is also shown that increasing scaling limit results in selected ground motions with generally increased distributions of Arias intensity and significant duration Ds_5-75, implying that scaling limit consideration can significantly influence the cumulative and duration characteristics of selected ground motions. The ground motion suites selected are then used as input for slope displacement and structural dynamic analyses. Comparative results demonstrate that the consideration of scaling limits in ground motion selection has a notable influence on the distribution of the engineering demand parameters calculated (ie, slope displacement and interstory drift ratio). Finally, based on extensive analyses, a scaling limit range of 3 to 5 is recommended for general use when selecting ground motion records from the NGA-West2 database.     

钢筋混凝土结构小比例尺模型的相似性研究

本文针对钢筋混凝土小比例尺模型,提出了考虑不同材料(混凝土和配筋)间相似性协调问题的一种新型设计方法,即通过调整配筋率、配箍率或者截面有效高度(h0)、箍筋间距等,对微粒混凝土和配筋的相似性协调进行考虑,并且通过构件试验、振动台实验和数值模拟来研究其可行性、有效性,而且通过相似偏差分析可知:相似性协调模型能很好地模拟原型结构弹塑性性态。     

城市布局规模与大气环境影响的数值研究

为探索城市建设对局地及周边大气环境的影响,本文采用典型代表性天气条件,以北京主城区及其东部发展带小城镇群的发展变化为例,设计算例进行数值模拟.分析结果表明：城镇群建设发展通过地气的相互作用对局地环境产生显著影响,在本文选择的夏日晴好天气条件下,就1980～2004年城市区域布局状况,模拟域内北京城市用地增加19%,城市区域平均气温增加1.91℃,植被覆盖率减少20%,城市区域平均比湿减少3.3 g·kg-1,并且城市发展的格局规模不同,对城市气象环境的影响程度也不同. 此外,由于地气多因子的相互影响和反馈作用,城建规模的变化对周边的环境也存在显著的影响,城建规模越大,对周边的影响越大．例如, (1) 北京主城区的存在对周边小城镇午间14:00近地面温度影响最大可达到1.2℃,混合层高度可增高150 m左右; (2) 城市建设在影响周边气象环境的同时,也改变了城市污染物的输送扩散能力,北京主城区的存在使周边小城镇PM10的允许排放总量减小18.02 t·d-1,同时,随着周边小城镇城市规模的扩大,影响主城区PM10逐渐由净的输出转变为净的收入,小城镇群的存在对主城区PM10净收支的贡献率达到0.192 t·d-1.     

Water flux and sediment transport within a forested landscape: the role of connectivity,subsurface flow,and slope length scale on transport mechanism

The connectivity and upscaling of overland runoff and sediment transport are important issues in hillslope hydrology to identify water flux and sediment transport within landscape. These processes are highly variable in time and space with regard to their interactions with vegetation and soil surface conditions. The generation of overland runoff and its spatial connectivity were examined along a slope to determine the variations in the transport mechanism of runoff and soil particles by rain splash and overland runoff. Field experiments were conducted by erosion plots on a steep hillslope at lengths of 5, 10, and 15 m. The overland runoff connectivity and flow transport distance decreased with the slope length, while spatial variability of infiltration increased significantly with the slope length. Observation of subsurface flow revealed that surface soil and litter layer could have important role in water transport. However, the surface soil water content and water flux transport along the slope was highly variable for different storm events; the variability was related to the complexity of the system, mainly by way of the initial wetness conditions and infiltration characteristics. Only net rain‐splashed soil was measurable, but examination of the water flux, overland runoff and sediment transport connectivity, characteristics of sheetwash, and the variability in spatial infiltration indicated an increase in the contribution of the rain splash transport mechanism along the slope. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Functional evaluation of a simplified scaling method for assessing the spatial variability of soil hydraulic properties at the hillslope scale

Abstract

Mapping soil hydraulic parameters with traditional scaling methods that use laboratory-determined hydraulic characteristics (the LAB method) is not always feasible as it involves expensive, time-consuming and sophisticated measurements on soil samples collected in several locations of the study area. An alternative scaling method (the AP method) has been recently proposed to indirectly retrieve the soil hydraulic properties following the Arya-Paris physico-empirical pedotransfer function, which makes use of particle-size distribution and bulk density values. In this synthetic study we verify the performance of the AP method from a functional perspective, by evaluating the differences in the simulated soil water budget through a Monte Carlo approach. Notwithstanding that the AP method can provide soil hydraulic property patterns with faster experimental procedures and minor costs, we observe significant bias in the predicted spatially-averaged soil water budget due to a poor parametric calibration of the AP method and an imprecise identification of the spatial correlation structure of the AP-estimated scaling factors.

Citation Nasta, P., Romano, N., and Chirico, G.B., 2013. Functional evaluation of a simplified scaling method for assessing the spatial variability of soil hydraulic properties at the hillslope scale. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (5), 1059–1071.     

基于XSLT的地震应急成果生成应用研究

地震是一种突发性较强的自然灾害,一次地震持续时间往往只有几十秒钟,在如此短暂的时间内造成大量房屋倒塌、人员伤亡,这是其它自然灾害难以相比的。地震应急成果的快速产出在地震应急救援过程中起着至关重要的作用,借助XSLT可以快速转换地震应急计算模型所需的XML文档,从而提高地震应急成果的生成效率。详细描述了XSLT的概念及其工作原理,并阐述了XSLT在多个地震计算模型中的具体应用,说明XSLT在地震应急成果生成中具有快捷、方便等特点。     

基于显式垂直比例因子的显式分形插值地震数据重建

在前人工作的基础上对分形插值方法作了详细的探讨,给出了分形插值函数的显式表达方式.在量纲分析的基础上给出了垂直比例因子的局部显式表达式,旨在提高地震道插值重建的精度及突出局部信息,并从单道地震图的角度分析其在地震道插值重建中的应用效果.研究了垂直比例因子的变化对分形插值精度的影响.数值实验表明,随着垂直比例因子的增大,分形垂直的误差逐渐增大,二者之间呈显出指数增长的趋势.该法克服了随机分形插值方法必须进行多步迭代的弱点,提高了计算效率.通过对理论地震道插值重建的分析,说明了本文分形插值方法的高精度和高效率.本文提出的显式分形插值方法既能够突出地震道数据的局部信息,又较好地保持了地震道数据的总体变化趋势.     

The effect of non divergence-free velocity fields on field scale ground water solute transport

Solute plume subjected to field scale hydraulic conductivity heterogeneity shows a large dispersion/macrodispersion, which is the manifestation of existing fields scale heterogeneity on the solute plume. On the other hand, due to the scarcity of hydraulic conductivity measurements at field scale, hydraulic conductivity heterogeneity can only be defined statistically, which makes the hydraulic conductivity a random variable/function. Random hydraulic conductivity as a parameter in flow equation makes the pore flow velocity also random and the ground water solute transport equation is a stochastic differential equation now. In this study, the ensemble average of stochastic ground water solute transport equation is taken by the cumulant expansion method in order to upscale the laboratory scale transport equation to field scale by assuming pore flow velocity is a non stationary, non divergence-free and unsteady random function of space and time. Besides the stochastic explanation of macrodispersion and the velocity correction term obtained by Kavvas and Karakas (J Hydrol 179:321–351, 1996) before a new velocity correction term, which is a function of mean pore flow velocity divergence, is obtained in this study due to strict second order cumulant expansion (without omitting any term after the expansion) performed. The significance of the new velocity correction term is investigated on a one dimensional transport problem driven by a density dependent flow field.     

Catchment-scale storm velocity: quantification,scale dependence and effect on flood response

Abstract

The concept of “catchment-scale storm velocity” quantifies the rate of storm motion up and down the basin accounting for the interaction between the rainfall space–time variability and the structure of the drainage network. It provides an assessment of the impact of storm motion on flood shape. We evaluate the catchment-scale storm velocity for the 29 August 2003 extreme storm that occurred on the 700 km²-wide Fella River basin in the eastern Italian Alps. The storm was characterized by the high rate of motion of convective cells across the basin. Analysis is carried out for a set of basins that range in area from 8 to 623 km² to: (a) determine velocity magnitudes for different sub-basins; (b) examine the relationship of velocity with basin scale and (c) assess the impact of storm motion on simulated flood response. Two spatially distributed hydrological models of varying degree of complexity in the representation of the runoff generation processes are used to evaluate the effects of the storm velocity on flood modelling and investigate model dependencies of the results. It is shown that catchment-scale storm velocity has a non-linear dependence on basin scale and generally exhibits rather moderate values, in spite of the strong kinematic characteristics of individual storm elements. Consistently with these observations and for both models, hydrological simulations show that storm motion has an almost negligible effect on the flood response modelling.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor R.J. Moore

Citation Nikolopoulos, E.I., Borga, M., Zoccatelli, D., and Anagnostou, E.N., 2014. Catchment-scale storm velocity: quantification, scale dependence and effect on flood response. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (7), 1363–1376. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.923889     

Spatial scale effect on the upper soil effective parameters of a distributed hydrological model

Nonlinear dynamics and spatial variability in hydrological systems make the formulation of scaling theories difficult. Therefore, the development of knowledge related to scale effects, scaling techniques, parameterization and linkages of parameters across scales is highly relevant. The main purpose of this work is to analyse the spatial effect of the static storage capacity parameter H_u and the saturated hydraulic conductivity parameter k_s from microscale (sub‐grid level) to mesoscale (grid level) and its implication to the definition of an optimum cell size. These two parameters describe the upper soil water characteristics in the infiltration process conceptualization of the TETIS hydrological model. At microscale, the spatial heterogeneity of H_u and k_s was obtained generating random parameter fields through probability distribution functions and a spatial dependence model with pre‐established correlation lengths. The effective parameters at mesoscale were calculated by solving the inverse problem for each parameter field. Results indicate that the adopted inverse formulation allows transferring the nonlinearity of the system from microscale to the mesoscale via non‐stationary effective parameters. Their values at each cell and time step are in the range of zero to the mean value of the parameter at microscale. The stochastic simulations showed that the variance of the estimated effective parameters decreases when the ratio between mesoscale cell size and correlation length at microscale increases. For a ratio greater than 1, we found cell sizes having the characteristics of a representative elementary area (REA); in such case, the microscale variability pattern did not affect the system response at mesoscale. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Runoff sensitivity to snow depletion curve representation within a continental scale hydrologic model

The spatial variability of snow water equivalent (SWE) can exert a strong influence on the timing and magnitude of snowmelt delivery to a watershed. Therefore, the representation of sub-grid or sub-watershed snow variability in hydrologic models is important for accurately simulating snowmelt dynamics and runoff response. The U.S. Geological Survey National Hydrologic Model infrastructure with the precipitation-runoff modelling system (NHM-PRMS) represents the sub-grid variability of SWE with snow depletion curves (SDCs), which relate snow-covered area to watershed-mean SWE during the snowmelt period. The main objective of this research was to evaluate the sensitivity of simulated runoff to SDC representation within the NHM-PRMS across the continental United States (CONUS). SDCs for the model experiment were derived assuming a range of SWE coefficient of variation values and a lognormal probability distribution function. The NHM-PRMS was simulated at a daily time step for each SDC over a 14-year period. Results highlight that increasing the sub-grid snow variability (by changing the SDC) resulted in a consistently slower snowmelt rate and longer snowmelt duration when averaged across the hydrologic response unit scale. Simulated runoff was also found to be sensitive to SDC representation, as decreases in simulated snowmelt rate by 1 mm day⁻¹ resulted in decreases in runoff ratio by 1.8% on average in snow-dominated regions of the CONUS. Simulated decreases in runoff associated with slower snowmelt rates were approximately inversely proportional to increases in simulated evapotranspiration. High snow persistence and peak SWE:annual precipitation combined with a water-limited dryness index was associated with the greatest runoff sensitivity to changing snowmelt. Results from this study highlight the importance of carefully parameterizing SDCs for hydrologic modelling. Furthermore, improving model representation of snowmelt input variability and its relation to runoff generation processes is shown to be an important consideration for future modelling applications.     

基于小波变换对地磁场变化特征的分析

选用db5小波基函数对嘉峪关、兰州两个台站地磁垂直分量Z进行了小波分解,分析了不同台站间低频(概貌部分)和高频(细节部分)的相关性。结果显示:地磁Z分量在不同台站低频成分相关性较好,而高频部分相关性不明显,其高频部分可能与当地地下介质、地下电导率水平以及观测环境密切相关。     

隔震铅芯橡胶支座变形发热及其强度退化研究综述

铅芯橡胶支座（lead-rubber bearing,LRB）是目前应用最为广泛的减隔震装置,普遍应用于建筑、桥梁、储罐和核电站等结构,其抗震性能已在屡次地震中得以验证。当LRB承受大幅值的往复变形时,其力学性能受内部铅芯发热的影响而发生显著变化,主要表现在滞回耗能、特征强度和刚度的降低等方面。首先,总结了铅芯橡胶支座及其结构在以往地震中的震害情况,介绍了预测LRB内部铅芯变形发热和温度升高的理论及近似求解方法,以及基于试验和有限元的验证方法及注意事项;其次,概述了LRB因内部铅芯变形发热导致其强度退化的分析模型和强度退化对结构地震反应的影响;最后,归纳了隔震结构在进行模型试验时,铅芯橡胶支座的相似理论和缩尺问题。