Identification of water quality management policy of watershed system with multiple uncertain interactions using a multi-level-factorial risk-inference-based possibilistic-probabilistic programming approach

In this study, a multi-level-factorial risk-inference-based possibilistic-probabilistic programming (MRPP) method is proposed for supporting water quality management under multiple uncertainties. The MRPP method can handle uncertainties expressed as fuzzy-random-boundary intervals, probability distributions, and interval numbers, and analyze the effects of uncertainties as well as their interactions on modeling outputs. It is applied to plan water quality management in the Xiangxihe watershed. Results reveal that a lower probability of satisfying the objective function (θ) as well as a higher probability of violating environmental constraints (q _i ) would correspond to a higher system benefit with an increased risk of violating system feasibility. Chemical plants are the major contributors to biological oxygen demand (BOD) and total phosphorus (TP) discharges; total nitrogen (TN) would be mainly discharged by crop farming. It is also discovered that optimistic decision makers should pay more attention to the interactions between chemical plant and water supply, while decision makers who possess a risk-averse attitude would focus on the interactive effect of q _i and benefit of water supply. The findings can help enhance the model’s applicability and identify a suitable water quality management policy for environmental sustainability according to the practical situations.

     

Conflicting demands and shifts between policy and intra-scientific orientation during conservation research programmes

Conservation scientists must meet the sometimes conflicting demands of policy and science, but not necessarily at the same time. We analysed the policy and intra-scientific orientations of research projects on effects of stump extraction on biodiversity, and found shifts over time associated with these demands. Our results indicate that uncertainties related to both factual issues and human decisions are often ignored in policy-oriented reports and syntheses, which could give misleading indications of the reliability or feasibility of any conclusions. The policy versus intra-scientific orientation of the scientific papers generated from the surveyed projects varied substantially, although we argue that in applied research, societal relevance is generally more important than intra-scientific relevance. To make conservation science more socially relevant, there is a need for giving societal relevance higher priority, paying attention to uncertainties and increasing the awareness of the value of cross-disciplinary research considering human decisions and values.     

Methylmercury exposure and health effects in humans: a worldwide concern

The paper builds on existing literature, highlighting current understanding and identifying unresolved issues about MeHg exposure, health effects, and risk assessment, and concludes with a consensus statement. Methylmercury is a potent toxin, bioaccumulated and concentrated through the aquatic food chain, placing at risk people, throughout the globe and across the socioeconomic spectrum, who consume predatory fish or for whom fish is a dietary mainstay. Methylmercury developmental neurotoxicity has constituted the basis for risk assessments and public health policies. Despite gaps in our knowledge on new bioindicators of exposure, factors that influence MeHg uptake and toxicity, toxicokinetics, neurologic and cardiovascular effects in adult populations, and the nutritional benefits and risks from the large number of marine and freshwater fish and fish-eating species, the panel concluded that to preserve human health, all efforts need to be made to reduce and eliminate sources of exposure.     

Organizing For Risk Oriented Climate Alteration Research

The ubiquity in effects and complexity of modern environmental issues requires careful consideration of focused research to insure that answers to key policy oriented questions are obtained. Broad-based, unstructured research programs have proven to be inefficient instruments for characterizing risks from environmental stress. Both the expense and the importance of timeliness of information preclude a traditional “bottom-up” approach to research. Instead, a more “top-down” organized approach that links the natural and socioeconomic sciences has advantages to support environmental risk assessment and research prioritization of climate alteration. Early examples of analysis using an integrating framework for risk assessment focus on the need for research on human interactions and the environmental damage function in addition to the basic earth sciences. Nonlinearities in environmental impact of climate change, and uncertainties in the extent of growth of energy efficiencies, are seen to be key unknowns in the risk assessment of climate alternatives. To date, earth science research has not been structured well for environmental risk assessment of the climate change question. The U.S. national research program aimed at risk assessment of climate alteration is examined as an example. The examination suggests that the present conceptual plan falls short of an optimum structure derived from exploitation of an integrating framework, even though it is rich in scientific strength and diversity. To strengthen its public value and accessibility, the research program could account in its planning for prioritized needs defined by an integrating analysis for risk assessment and management.     

A preliminary risk assessment of trace elements accumulated in fish to the Indo-Pacific Humpback dolphin (Sousa chinensis) in the northwestern waters of Hong Kong

In order to assess the potential risks associated with consumption of contaminated prey items to the Indo-Pacific Humpback dolphin (Sousa chinensis), fish species (Collichthys lucida, Pseudosciaena crocea, Johnius sp., Thryssa sp., Mugil sp. and Trichiurus sp.) representing the main food items of the dolphin were collected from the northwestern waters of Hong Kong, including the Sha Chau and Lung Kwu Chau Marine Park, which form the main habitat of the dolphin in Hong Kong. Within these waters, there are several potential sources of pollution including significant inputs from the Pearl River catchment, several major sewage outfalls and a series of mud pits that receive contaminated dredged sediments. Concentrations of thirteen trace elements (Ag, As, Cd, Co, Cr, Cs, Cu, Hg, Mn, Ni, Se, V, and Zn) in the fish tissue were analyzed by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometer (ICP-MS). An assessment of the risks of adverse effects on the dolphin due to consumption of tainted fish was undertaken using two toxic reference benchmarks, namely the reference dose (RfD) and toxicity reference value (TRV). The risk quotient (RQ) calculated for each element showed that the risks from consumption of fish were generally low and within safe limits. The risks associated with arsenic, cadmium and mercury were, however, elevated. The highest calculated RQ was associated with total arsenic; however, the majority of arsenic in marine organisms tends to be in the non-toxic organic form, and the actual risk to the dolphin due to this metalloid is likely to be lower.     

Uncertainties and data needs in risk assessment of three commercial polybrominated diphenyl ethers: probabilistic exposure analysis and comparison with European Commission results

Some environmental monitoring programs have reported increasing levels of certain polybrominated diphenyl ether (PBDE) isomers in aquatic biota and in human breast milk. The commercial PBDE products are known as penta-, octa-, and deca-brominated diphenyl ethers (PeBDE, OBDE and DBDE, respectively). Aside from the current European Commission's risk assessment initiative and efforts underway in Sweden, Canada and elsewhere to evaluate environmental levels, little is understood about sources of exposure and risks to humans. In this study, a multi-pathway human health risk assessment was performed to predict theoretical chronic daily intakes (CDIs) of PeBDE, OBDE, and DBDE by five different age groups: 0-2, 2-6, 6-12, 12-18, and 18-70 years. Sources of exposure included air, drinking water, consumption of fish, vegetables, meat and dairy products, and ingestion of breast milk by infants. In addition to a deterministic analysis, the risk assessment included a probabilistic analysis to derive the probability density functions describing the range of plausible exposures associated with eight different pathways, as well as aggregate lifetime exposures for each age group. The results were compared to CDI point estimates calculated by the European Chemicals Bureau as part of the European Commission's Existing Substances Programme. The major sources of uncertainties are discussed, including environmental sources, levels in different environmental compartments, toxicity, and human exposure. This paper also discusses the limitations in the current state-of-the-science and provides recommendations for improving the scientific relevance and accuracy of future environmental risk assessments of PBDEs.     

Risk assessment for human consumption of perfluorinated compound-contaminated freshwater and marine fish from Hong Kong and Xiamen

Perfluorinated compounds (PFCs) are man-made fluoro-surfactants that are identified as global pollutants and can pose health risks to humans and wildlife. Two aspects of risk assessment were conducted in this study, including exposure and response. Exposure was estimated by using the concentrations of PFCs in fish and applying standard exposure factors. Among different PFCs, PFOS, PFOA, PFNA, PFDA, PFUdA and PFTrDA were detected. Total concentrations of PFC in fish ranged from 0.27-8.4 ng g⁻¹ to 0.37-8.7 ng g⁻¹ respectively in Hong Kong and Xiamen. The calculated hazard ratio (HR) of PFOS for all fish was less than 1.0. However, the HR for mandarin fish in Hong Kong and bighead carp, grass carp and tilapia in Xiamen, had HR values of approximately 0.5, indicating that frequent consumption of these 4 more contaminated fish species might pose an unacceptable risk to human health. Our data support the notion that the released/disposed chemical pollutants into water systems make fish a source of environmental toxicants to humans. The risks and potential effects of PFCs to health of coastal population in the Pearl River Delta are of concern.     

A preliminary risk assessment of organochlorines accumulated in fish to the Indo-Pacific humpback dolphin (Sousa chinensis) in the Northwestern waters of Hong Kong

The Indo-Pacific humpback dolphin is considered threatened due to several factors including pollution in Hong Kong and the risks due to consumption of fish tainted with polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine pesticides were assessed. Six species of fish Collichthys lucida, Pseudosciaena crocea, Johnius sp., Thryssa sp., Mugil sp. and Trichiurus sp., which comprise the main prey species of humpback dolphins were collected for analyses. Risks due to total PCBs, total TEQs, PCB 118 and the pesticides were assessed with the use of toxicity reference values as the threshold reference benchmarks. The calculated risk quotients (RQs) showed that the risks associated with organochlorines were generally low. The highest RQ was associated with total TEQs suggesting that dioxin-like PCBs may pose the highest risk to the dolphins. The HCHs, total PCBs and heptachlor had comparatively high RQs and thus they should also be the priority organochlorines that would require further investigation.     

Cost-effectiveness analyses of chemical risk control policies in Japan

Results of cost-effectiveness analyses (CEA) for chemical risk control policies are presented. Advantages and disadvantages of CEA and cost-benefit analysis (CBA) are discussed. It is made clear that CEA is not an incomplete form of instrument for policy appraisal compared with CBA, but has its own value for chemical risk control policies. Firstly, cost-effectiveness ratios are actually too high to make CBA relevant as an instrument of policy appraisal. Secondly, deep-rooted uncertainties in policy appraisal make relative comparisons more attractive than an absolute value approach such as CBA. Thirdly, the index of effectiveness is not restricted to individuals' preferences, and CEA is not restricted to the criterion of efficiency.     

Highlights of the Second International Conference on Managing Hazardous Air Pollutants

As the time approaches for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to evaluate whether risks from electric utility trace substance emissions are of concern, attention is focused on research to clarify the many issues surrounding this topic. Accordingly, more than 230 representatives of industry, government, international research and academic institutions, equipment manufacturers, and engineering service firms attended the Second International Conference on Managing Hazardous Air Pollutants, which was held in Washington, D.C., on July 13–15,1993. Sponsored by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) in cooperation with the EPA, U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), PowerGen, Coal Research Division of the International Energy Agency, and Canadian Electrical Association, the conference featured more than 50 presentations that both asked and answered questions about utility emission sources, the atmospheric fate of emitted substances, health and environmental studies, risk assessment, and control technologies. The diversity of the audience produced a stimulating exchange of findings, interpretations, and assessments of remaining uncertainties. This exchange provided valuable direction for ongoing research activities worldwide.     

Health risk assessment for consumption of fish originating from ponds near Dabaoshan mine, South China

Mining effluents are a potential source of toxic metals in the surrounding aquatic ecosystem and pose a potential health risk to humans from fish consumption. The objective of this paper is to assess the impact of the long-term Dabaoshan mining operation on heavy metal accumulation in different fish species. Heavy metal accumulation (lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd), zinc (Zn), and copper (Cu)) in four tissues (liver, muscle, intestine, and gills) of five carp species (Hypophthalmichthys molitrix, Ctenopharyngodon idellus, Megalobrama amblycephala, Aristichthys nobilis, and Carassius auratus auratus) from two fishponds exposed to effluent waters from Dabaoshan mine, South China. The bioaccumulation factor (BAF) and target hazard quotients were calculated to assess potential health risks to local residents through fish consumption. Levels of heavy metals varied depending on the analyzed tissues. C. auratus auratus accumulated the higher Pb, Cd, Zn, and Cu in the intestine compared with other fish species. Liver of all five species contained high concentrations of Pb, Cd, Zn, and Cu. The BAF for the studied metals showed a descending order of Cd?>?Zn?>?Cu?>?Pb for fishpond 1 and Zn?>?Cd?>?Cu?>?Pb for fishpond 2. Risk assessments suggested that potential human health risk may be present due to high Pb and Cd concentration in the muscle of some fish species exceeding the national and international limits, although the target hazard quotients were less than one.     

Perceived importance of sustainability and ethics related to fish: a consumer behavior perspective

Although sustainability and ethics are of increasing public importance, little research has been conducted to reveal its association with fish consumer behavior. Cross-sectional data were collected through a postal self-administered survey (June 2005) from a sample of 381 Flemish women aged 20-50 years. Consumers attach high perceived importance to sustainability and ethics related to fish. However, this perceived importance is neither correlated with fish consumption frequency nor with general attitude toward eating fish. Refusing to eat wild fish is grounded in sustainability and ethical concerns, whereas the decision not to eat farmed fish is associated with a lower expected intrinsic quality rather than shaped by importance attached to sustainability and ethical issues.     

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in fish from the Sana River (Bosnia and Herzegovina): A preliminary study on the health risk in sport fishermen

Fish is the main single source of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) exposure in men. Anecdotal reports suggest high wild fish consumption rates among sport fishermen in Sanski Most area, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). Presence of PCBs in the environment in BiH was previously documented. The main objective of this work was to estimate the magnitude of PCBs exposure and assess the potential health risk in sport fishermen in Sanski Most. The fishing pattern and magnitude of fish consumption were estimated in the questionnaire survey conducted during April 2012 among members (n = 60) of the local sport fishermen association in Sanski Most. Calculated median and high-end (90th percentile) fish consumption rates were 31 g d^?1 and 126 g d^?1, respectively. The PCB concentrations (as Aroclor 1254 equivalents), determined by ELISA immunoassay in 28 fish fillets ranged from undetectable to 208 μg kg^?1. Two different exposure scenarios were used: (a) median exposure, calculated from the median fish consumption rate and median PCB concentrations, and (b) “worst case” scenario, calculated from the high-end fish consumption rate and mean PCB concentrations. The results suggest negligible lifelong cancer and non-cancer risks in case of low to moderate fish consumption rate, but possibly unacceptable risk levels in high-end consumers.     

The Challenge of Bridging Science and Policy in the Baltic Sea Eutrophication Governance in Finland: The perspective of Science

This article examines the views of scientists on intricacies of scientific knowledge that affect science–policy interface in the Baltic Sea eutrophication governance in Finland. The analysis demonstrates that these intricacies can be divided into five categories: (1) uncertainty of knowledge concerning ecological processes, (2) heterogeneity of knowledge, (3) societal and political call for (certain) knowledge, (4) contingency of the knowledge that ends up taken as a baseline for decision making and further research, and (5) linkages of knowledge production, processing, and communication to particular characteristics of individual researchers and research societies. By explicating these aspects, this article illustrates the ways in which scientific knowledge concerning eutrophication is human-bound and susceptible to interpretation, thus adding on to the uncertainty of the Baltic Sea environmental governance. The aim is, then, to open up perspectives on how ambiguities related to science–policy interface could be coped with.     

Health risk assessment of heavy metals in Cyprinus carpio (Cyprinidae) from the upper Mekong River

The purposes of this research are to quantify the concentration of heavy metals (Zn, Cu, As, Pb, Cd, and Hg) in the water and fish tissues of common carp (Cyprinus carpio) in the upper Mekong River and to thereby elucidate the potential dietary health risks from fish consumption of local residents. Surface water and fish tissues (gill, muscle, liver, and intestine) from four representative sample areas (influence by a cascade of four dams) along the river were analyzed for heavy metal concentrations. Results revealed that the levels of heavy metals in fish were tissue-dependent. The highest Cu and As levels were found in the liver; the highest Zn and Pb levels occurred in the intestine, and the highest Hg level was found in the muscle. The total target hazard quotient (THQ) value for residents is > 1 for long-term fish consumption, and local residents are, therefore, exposed to a significant health risk. Results from the current study provide an overall understanding of the spatial and tissue distribution of heavy metals in water and fish body along the upper Mekong River under the influence of cascade dams and highlight the potential health risk of As for the local residents of long-term fish consumption.

     

Trace metals and organometals in selected marine species and preliminary risk assessment to human beings in Thane Creek area, Mumbai

Trace metals and organometals were estimated in different types of marine organisms (fish, bivalve, crab and prawn) collected from the Trans-Thane Creek area, Mumbai. Thane Creek area is considered as most polluted area due to industrial discharges. Potential risks associated with consumption of marine organisms collected from this particular area to human beings were assessed. Concentrations of ten trace elements (As, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn) in the edible part of marine organisms were analysed by atomic absorption spectrometer and differential pulse anodic stripping voltametric technique. Methyl mercury and tributyl tin were estimated using gas chromatograph-mass spectrometer in combination with solid phase micro extraction (SPME). An assessment of the risk on human beings due to consumption of marine organism was undertaken using toxic reference benchmark, namely the reference dose (RfD). The hazard index (HI), sum of hazard quotients calculated for all the pollutant showed that the risks from consumption of fish and marine organisms as a whole were generally low and are within safe limits.     

Integrating information for better environmental decisions

As more is learned about the complex nature and extent of environmental impacts from progressive human disturbance, scientists, policy analysts, decision makers, educators, and communicators are increasingly joining forces to develop strategies for preserving and protecting the environment. The Eco-Informa Foundation is an educational scientific organization dedicated to promoting the collaborative development and sharing of scientific information. The Foundation participated in a recent international conference on environmental informatics through a special symposium on integrating information for better environmental decisions. Presentations focused on four general themes: (1) remote sensing and data interpretation, including through new knowledge management tools; (2) risk assessment and communication, including for radioactively contaminated facilities, introduced biological hazards, and food safety; (3) community involvement in cleanup projects; and (4) environmental education. The general context for related issues, methods and applications, and results and recommendations from those discussions are highlighted here.     

Reactivity-Based Hydrocarbon Controls: Scientific Issues and Potential Regulatory Applications

The California Air Resources Board and the South Coast Air Quality Management District hosted a conference on April 8-9, 1991 to examine the scientific issues associated with reactivity-based hydrocarbon controls, and to identify the obstacles to potential regulatory applications. Owing to residual uncertainties in the underlying science, and the complex emission measurement capabilities required for enforcement, a general consensus emerged on the need for further research before application of reactivity-based controls. A number of recommendations were made for research on the remaining scientific, enforcement, and policy issues, many of which have led to cooperative efforts initiated since the conference.     

Estimating risk at a Superfund site using passive sampling devices as biological surrogates in human health risk models

Passive sampling devices (PSDs) sequester the freely dissolved fraction of lipophilic contaminants, mimicking passive chemical uptake and accumulation by biomembranes and lipid tissues. Public Health Assessments that inform the public about health risks from exposure to contaminants through consumption of resident fish are generally based on tissue data, which can be difficult to obtain and requires destructive sampling. The purpose of this study is to apply PSD data in a Public Health Assessment to demonstrate that PSDs can be used as a biological surrogate to evaluate potential human health risks and elucidate spatio-temporal variations in risk. PSDs were used to measure polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the Willamette River; upriver, downriver and within the Portland Harbor Superfund megasite for 3 years during wet and dry seasons. Based on an existing Public Health Assessment for this area, concentrations of PAHs in PSDs were substituted for fish tissue concentrations. PSD measured PAH concentrations captured the magnitude, range and variability of PAH concentrations reported for fish/shellfish from Portland Harbor. Using PSD results in place of fish data revealed an unacceptable risk level for cancer in all seasons but no unacceptable risk for non-cancer endpoints. Estimated cancer risk varied by several orders of magnitude based on season and location. Sites near coal tar contamination demonstrated the highest risk, particularly during the dry season and remediation activities. Incorporating PSD data into Public Health Assessments provides specific spatial and temporal contaminant exposure information that can assist public health professionals in evaluating human health risks.