东平湖滞洪区防洪决策方法应用探讨

东平共区是保障下游山东境内河道防洪安全的重要防洪工程，本文针对黄河防洪决策的实际过程，运用影响图决策理论，以东平湖分洪决策为研究对象，对求解黄河下防洪决策不确定型问题进行了分析探讨，并给出了在汶河来水不定条件下东平湖分洪决策的应用结论。     

木兰溪下游滞洪区水力模拟计算

为模拟木兰溪下游洪水淹没现状、核定现状堤防安全泄量、比较洪水归槽前后水流流速变化 ,应用水量平衡方程和水力学公式编制程序对木兰溪下游滞洪区进行了水力模拟计算 .计算结果表明 :由于木兰溪下游滞洪区调蓄作用 ,10 0年一遇洪水经调蓄后下泄流量不到 2年一遇 ,2 0年一遇洪水经调蓄后下泄流量比平滩流量 ( 10 0 0m3 /s)还小 ;1949年后港利至三江口河段尚未通过大于 110 0m3 /s的洪水 ;2 0年一遇洪水 ,港利以上南北洋平原漫滩洪水断面平均流速为 0 .2 1～ 0 .93m/s,远远小于规划方案的 1.8～ 2 .95m/s;港利以下至三江口河段河道断面平均流速为 0 .38～0 .85m/s,也小于规划方案的 1.87～ 2 .2m/s.     

对黄墩湖滞洪区的调查与思考

黄墩湖滞洪区是沂沭泗防洪体系的重要组成部分。今年初,笔者因工作关系,初步了解了一些滞洪区内建设和管理的情况,并结合学习《防洪法》,就滞洪区建设和管理问题引发了一些思考。     

治水的思考：滞洪区建设联想

水，给人类带来了福音，也曾给人类造成过万劫不复的灾难。如何把一个充满生机活力，繁荣昌盛，人民安居乐业美丽的草原钢城带入21世纪，水利建设和发展，是一个十分重大的问题。1概述包头市是一个严重缺水的城市，又是一个水旱灾害频繁、水土流失极为严重的地区。境内大青山、乌拉山沿山一带，共分布有大小山沟76条，其中流域面积在20km2以上的山沟就有昆都仑河、水洞沟、美岱沟等13条，流域面积占全部山沟流域面积的91％以上。由于降雨地域、时空分布的不均，山区、丘陵区是十年九旱、年年春旱。而山前平原区则是大雨大灾、小雨小灾、无雨…     

抬高西大岗滞洪区汛限水位初探

采用产汇流方法复核西大岗滞洪区设计洪水,分别拟定不同汛限水位方案分析水库大坝防洪安全性,为抬高汛限水位、增加调节水量及充分利用水资源提供一定依据。     

论新蔡县班台洼地 建滞洪区的可行性

文章结合大洪河与班台洼地的关系,分析了班台洼地建滞洪区的可行性及必要性,根据现状提出了班台滞洪区的建设方案、建设规模、建设内容及建设投资估算。     

兰沟洼行滞洪区洪水灾情的模拟分析

搞好大清河流域兰沟洼蓄滞洪区安全建设，科学合理地进行分滞洪区的防洪调度，并使其更有效地发挥作用，对海河流域防洪减灾具有重大的意义。１兰沟洼概况兰沟洼位于大清河北支平原下游地区。东有白沟河，南及西南有南拒马河，连同两河大堤形成了一个Ｙ形的封闭洼地。地势...     

滞洪区堤防工程设计及堤身隐患处理

杨庄滞洪区位于淮河支流洪汝河上游,是洪汝河防洪体系的重要组成部分,起着十分重要的作用,运用滞洪区进行洪水有效调度,关系着流域的防洪安全。为保障滞洪区内群众生命财产安全,缓和行蓄洪与群众生产生活的矛盾,保证及时有效的运用滞洪区以有效的防御大洪水,确保流域防洪安全,最大限度地减少洪水灾害损失,保障流域社会经济健康发展,对滞洪区进行全面规划、综合治理,加强滞洪区建设。     

东平湖滞洪区防洪决策方法应用探讨

东平湖滞洪区是保障下游山东境内河道防洪安全的重要防洪工程。本文钟对黄河防洪决策的实际过程，运用影响图决策理论，以东平湖分洪决策为研究对象，对求解黄河下游防洪决策不确定型同题进行了分析探讨，并给出了在汶河来水不不定条件下东平湖分洪决策的应用结论。     

Spatial Decision Support System for Watershed Management

A prototype spatial decision support system (SDSS) is presented for watershed management. The SDSS integrates landuse/landcover derived from the remote sensing data, real-time hydrological data, geographic information system, and a model-based subsystem for computing soil loss, land capability classification and engineering measures. A graphical user interface has been developed to allow effective use by decision makers. The model-based subsystem employs a process-based soil erosion model to compute soil loss in spatial environment. Computed pixel-based soil loss information is an input to the land capability classification and watershed management modules. The developed SDSS can help the end users in avoiding the laborious procedures of soil erosion calculations and analysing various thematic layers to get suitable watershed management practices. The SDSS for watershed management is applied to the Tones watershed in India to compute soil loss, to prioritise watersheds, and to suggest various watershed management practices.     

An Intelligent Decision Support System for Management of Floods

Integrating human knowledge with modeling tools, an intelligent decision support system (DSS) is developed to assist decision makers during different phases of flood management. The DSS is developed as a virtual planning tool and can address both engineering and non-engineering issues related to flood management. Different models (hydrodynamic, forecasting, and economic) that are part of the DSS share data and communicate with each other by providing feedback. The DSS is able to assist in: selecting suitable flood damage reduction options (using an expert system approach); forecasting floods (using artificial neural networks approach); modeling the operation of flood control structures; and describing the impacts (area flooded and damage) of floods in time and space. The proposed DSS is implemented for the Red River Basin in Manitoba, Canada. The results from the test application of DSS for 1997 flood in the Red River Basin are very promising. The DSS is able to predict the peak flows with 2% error and reveals that with revised operating rules the contribution of Assiniboine River to the flooding of Winnipeg city can be significantly reduced. The decision support environment allows a number of “what-if” type questions to be asked and answered, thus, multiple decisions can be tried without having to deal with the real life consequences.     

基于实时诊断的大坝健康决策支持系统

为实现对大坝的实时监控,及时掌握大坝运行状况,运用现代网络通信和计算机技术,综合多种数学方法,开发了大坝健康诊断实时监控决策支持系统,实现了对大坝安全监测信息的全面管理和分析,及时对异常数据和异常现象做出报警、评判和反馈,并进行一定层次的故障根源查找,帮助大坝管理部门及时做出正确的决策.文中阐述了该系统的结构以及各子系统的组成和功能.     

Development of a Decision Support System for Irrigation Systems Analysis

Different groups of hydrants or configurations operate simultaneously in on-demand pressurized irrigation systems, generating different flow regimes. The varieties of flow regimes cause a variability in hydrant pressure and consequently an adequate analysis of the hydraulic performance of the system is needed for better operation and adequate management. A reliable performance assessment needs a modern diagnostic analysis in space and time. To this aim, this research assessed the hydraulic performance of an irrigation district distribution network calculating two performance indicators at hydrant level: relative pressure deficit and reliability, and integrated the outputs in a geographic information system environment providing a framework for a decision support system (DSS). The user friendly interface provides detailed, attainable and interpretable information to address the present scenario as well as the future development of the system, and facilitates the cooperation among researchers, managers, and manufacturers to improve operation, maintenance, and management activities.     

柘溪水库调度决策支持系统设计与开发

在总结柘溪电站早期建设的决策支持系统经验的基础上，从分析电站特点和业务需求出发，遵循实用性、稳健性、先进性等原则进行了柘溪水库调度决策支持系统的设计和开发。现场实际运行效果表明系统具有较大的实用价值和较强的推广意义。最后总结了系统的特点并分析了综合利用水库调度决策支持系统的发展趋势。     

Rule-based Decision Support System for the Morphological Rehabilitation of Watercourses

A rule-based decision support system (DSS) has been developed to assist decision makers in preparing the EU programme of measures. The rehabilitation of morphological structures of small and medium-sized watercourses in Germany is the main objective. The lack of quantitative date and knowledge is the main obstacle in hydromorphological modelling. Therefore, DSS manipulates the decision-making process in a qualitative manner based on the knowledge of experts. The acquired knowledge is used to formulate ‘if–then’ rules to solve modelling problems. The developed DSS enables decision makers to select any watercourse in the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), investigate the feasibility of different rehabilitation measures, predict the impact on the morphological structure and prepare a programme of morphological measures including cost estimation. The system has been implemented for the watercourses in NRW and validated with field data. First results show good agreement between the proposed morphological rehabilitation measures and the implemented ones as well as a satisfactory performance in predicting the morphological structure after implementation of the rehabilitation measures.     

山西省抗旱决策支持系统建设

山西省抗旱决策支持系统是以现代信息技术为基础、对旱情进行实时／准实时监测的系统，根据灾情预测做出决策，合理调配水资源，减少灾害损失。本文论述了建设山西省抗旱决策支持系统的必要性、可行性和将要采取的技术路线，以及该系统实现后的功能。     

Multicriteria Decision Support System for Regionalization of Integrated Water Resources Management

Successful implementation of integrated water resources planning and management (IWRM) requires delineation of regions that are relatively homogeneous with respect to multiple criteria, including hydrographic, physical-environmental, socioeconomic, and political-administrative aspects. The water resources planning and management (WARPLAM) DSS is presented as tool for regionalization in support of IWRM through: (1) GIS processing of spatial data related to multiple criteria for defining the homogeneity of clustered base units (e.g., catchments) with respect to multiple criteria; (2) application of fuzzy set theory to development of composite measures of homogeneity over all criteria for alternative clustering of adjacent base units; and (3) development of a modified dynamic programming clustering algorithm that guarantees consistent optimal solutions based on user preferences on the relative importance of the suite of criteria considered for regionalization. The viability of WARPLAM DSS as a tool for regional delineation in support of IWRM is demonstrated through a case study application to the Tocantins-Araguaia River Basin, the second largest in Brazil.     

实时水库优化调度决策支持系统及其应用

水库是水库运行管理的中心环节，在水库调度中，将数学模型与专家系统结合使用，建立长中短期套接的实时兴利优化调度、防洪实时优化调度及其辅助模型系统；各模型通过逐时段滚动控制与反馈相结合，可以增加水库调度的效益，减少不确定性因素对调度的影响，并提出用专家系统对优化调度的各个环节进行评价，以尽可能降低优化调度方案的风险，提高优化调度方案的可接受程序，所提出的方法已编编制出使用灵活方便的软件，并经实际使用，     

Integrated Decision Support System for Prognostic and Diagnostic Analyses of Water Distribution System Failures

This paper presents an innovative decision support system (DSS) for prognostic and diagnostic analyses of water distribution system (WDS) failures. The framework of the DSS is based on four novel models developed and published by the authors of this paper. The four models include reliability assessment model, leakage potential model, leakage detection model, and water quality failure potential model. Information obtained from these models together with external information such as customer complaints, lab test results (if any), and historical information are integrated using Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory to evaluate prognostic and diagnostic capabilities of the DSS. The prognostic capabilities of the DSS provide hydraulic and water quality states of a WDS whereas the diagnostic capabilities of the DSS help to identify the failure location with minimal time after the occurrence and will help to reduce false positive and false negative predictions. The framework has ‘unique’ capacity to bring the modeling information (hydraulic and Quality), consumer complaints, historical failure data, and laboratory test information under a single platform to perform a prognostic and diagnostic investigation of WDS failures (hydraulic and Quality). The proof of concept of the DSS has been demonstrated using data used in published four articles. The outcomes of this research widely addressed the uncertainties associated with WDS which improves the efficiency and effectiveness of diagnosis and prognosis analyses of WDS. It is expected that the developed integrated framework will help municipalities to make informed decisions to increase the safety, reliability and the security of public health.