A drought climatology for Mauritius using the standardized precipitation index

This study presents a high-resolution and multi-temporal drought climatology for Mauritius based on calculated standardized precipitation index (SPI) using mean monthly rainfall for the period 1953–2007. A monthly mean SPI varying from +3.4 to ?2.7 indicates the occurrence of extremely wet and dry conditions, and collocated SPI indicates more frequent mild drought conditions. Spatial maps of rainfall trends and SPI show mostly neutral to severely dry conditions, but sparse regions of extremely wet and dry conditions are also observed. An increase in the frequency of dry years after the 1990s is noted, while most of the extreme wet conditions are found to have occurred between 1972 and 1988. More frequent short-duration wet events are observed on the 3- and 6-month time scales compared to dry events. On the 12- and 24-month time scales the frequency of both dry and wet periods is almost the same, with the dry events lasting longer.     

Using standardized indicators to analyse dry/wet conditions and their application for monitoring drought/floods: a study in the Logone catchment,Lake Chad basin

The standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized streamflow index (SSI) were used to analyse dry/wet conditions in the Logone catchment over a 50-year period (1951–2000). The SPI analysis at different time scales showed several meteorological drought events ranging from moderate to extreme; and SSI analysis showed that wetter conditions prevailed in the catchment from 1950 to 1970 interspersed with a few hydrological drought events. Overall, the results indicate that both the Sudano and Sahelian zones are equally prone to droughts and floods. However, the Sudano zone is more sensitive to drier conditions, while the Sahelian zone is sensitive to wetter conditions. Correlation analysis between SPI and SSI at multiple time scales revealed that the catchment has a low response to rainfall at short time scales, though this progressively changed as the time scale increased, with strong correlations (≥0.70) observed after 12 months. Analysis using individual monthly series showed that the response time reduced to 3 months in October.     

Summer drought index using SPEI based on 10-day temperature and precipitation data and its application in Zhejiang Province (Southeast China)

Summer drought is one of the main natural disasters in Zhejiang Province, China. To explore the characteristics of summer drought in Zhejiang Province during 1973–2013, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) is calculated based on 10-day precipitation and temperature data, and the summer drought index (DI) is defined. The Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s trend test are used to analyze changes of DI and drought area. Temperature is the main effect on changes of summer drought intensity and drought area. Significant increasing trends are observed for drought intensity, drought area, and extreme drought area, and their linear trend rates in northeast Zhejiang Province are larger than that in the southwest Zhejiang Province. DI and drought area time series have significant mutations in 2003. County-average DI and drought area during 2003–2013 are significantly larger than that during 1973–2002. The aforementioned SPEI could quantify, monitor and analyze summer drought onset, extent, and end.     

Drought assessment using a multivariate drought index in the Luanhe River basin of Northern China

With climate change and the rapid increase in water demand, droughts, whose intensity, duration and frequency have shown an increasing trend in China over the past decades, are increasingly becoming a critical constraint to China’s sustainable socio-economic development, especially in Northern China, even more so. Therefore, it is essential to develop an appropriate drought assessment approach in China. To propose a suitable drought index for drought assessment, the Luanhe river basin in the northern China was selected as a case study site. Based on the Principal Component Analysis of precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture and runoff, the three latter variables of which were obtained by using the Variable Infiltration Capacity land surface macro-scale hydrology model, a new multivariate drought index (MDI) was formulated, and its thresholds were determined by use of cumulative distribution function. To test the applicability of the newly developed index, the MDI, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the palmer drought severity index (PDSI) time series on a monthly scale were computed and compared during 1962–1963, 1968 and 1972 drought events. The results show that the MDI exhibited certain advantages over the PDSI and the SPI, i.e. better assessing drought severity and better reflecting drought evolution. The MDI formulated by this paper could provide a scientific basis for drought mitigation and management, and references for drought assessment elsewhere in China.     

Joint probability of precipitation and reservoir storage for drought estimation in the headwater basin of the Huaihe River,China

Reservoir storage plays an important role in water supply during the dry season when precipitation is insufficient. In a watershed where the streams are controlled by reservoirs, drought occurrences depend on not only precipitation variations but also reservoir regulation. In this study, the joint dependence structure of the reservoir storage and its relevant variables of precipitation and/or upstream outflow were analyzed for two cascade reservoirs in a headwater basin of the Huaihe River, China. Correlation analysis indicates that the reservoir storage in October (the end of the wet season) depends highly on the regional precipitation at time scales of several months, e.g., 7 months for the upstream and 9 months for the downstream. Additionally, the downstream storage is correlated with outflow from the upstream reservoir at the 5-month timescale significantly. For estimation of the joint probability of pairs of the storage and its relevant variables, univariate marginal distributions and bivariate copula were appropriately selected in terms of statistical tests. The bivariate return period of \(T(X < x,Y < y)\) and \(T(X \le x,Y \ge y)\) and the conditional probability of \(P(Y \ge y|X \le x)\) were estimated by using the selected Clayton copula. The results from contour lines of the bivariate return period demonstrate that the probability of drought occurrences affected by both reservoir storage and precipitation/outflow is smaller than that by either of the variables. Meanwhile, the concurrent drought probability between precipitation and reservoir storage in the upstream is higher than that in the downstream. The estimated conditional probability offers useful information on how much the regular storage could be remained under some specified drought levels of precipitation/upstream outflow. Therefore, the results are helpful for improving the operation strategies of the cascade reservoirs for the adaptive management of drought under different climate variations.     

Re-Os isotope dating of molybdenites in the Huang-shaping Pb-Zn-W-Mo polymetallic deposit, Hunan Province, South China and its geological significance

The large-scale Huangshaping Pb-Zn-W-Mo polymetallic deposit is located in the central Nanling min- eralization zone, South China. Six molybdenite samples from the Huangshaping deposit were selected for Re-Os isotope measurement in order to define the mineralization age of the deposit. It yields a Re-Os isochron age of 154.8±1.9 Ma (2σ ), which is in accordance with the Re-Os model ages of 150.9― 156.9 Ma. This age is about 7 Ma younger than their host granite porphyry, which was dated as 161.6±1.1 Ma by zircon U-Pb method using LA-ICPMS. All these ages demonstrate that the Huang- shaping granite and related Pb-Zn-W-Mo deposit occurred in the middle Yanshanian period, when many other granitoid and related ore deposits emplaced and formed, e.g. the Qitianling granite and Furong tin deposit, the Qianlishan granite and giant Shizhuyuan W-Sn-Mo-Bi deposit and Jinchuantang Sn-Bi deposit in the nearby area. They constitute the main part of the magmatic-metallogenic belt of southern Hunan, and represent the large-scale metallogeny in middle Yanshanian in the area. The lower rhenium content in molybdenite of Huangshaping deposit suggests that the ore-forming material was mainly of crust origin.     

Analysis of trends of annual and seasonal precipitation from 1956 to 2000 in Guangdong Province,China

Abstract

The trends of annual, seasonal and monthly precipitation in southern China (Guangdong Province) for the period 1956–2000 are investigated, based on the data from 186 high-quality gauging stations. Statistical tests, including Mann-Kendall rank test and wavelet analysis, are employed to determine whether the precipitation series exhibit any regular trend and periodicity. The results indicate that the annual precipitation has a slightly decreasing trend in central Guangdong and slight increasing trends in the eastern and western areas of the province. However, all the annual trends are not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. The average precipitation increases in the dry season in central Guangdong, but decreases in the wet season, meaning that the precipitation becomes more evenly distributed within the year. Furthermore, the analysis of monthly precipitation suggests that the distribution of intra-annual precipitation changes over time. The results of wavelet analysis show prominent precipitation with periods ranging from 10 to 12 years in every sub-region in Guangdong Province. Comparing with the sunspot cycle (11-year), the annual precipitation in every sub-region in Guangdong province correlates with Sunspot Number with a 3-year lag. The findings in this paper will be useful for water resources management.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor Sheng Yue

Citation Dedi Liu, Shenglian Guo, Xiaohong Chen and Quanxi Shao, 2012. Analysis of trends of annual and seasonal precipitation from 1956 to 2000 in Guangdong Province, China. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (2), 358–369.     

The spatial and temporal analysis of precipitation concentration and dry spell in Qinghai,northwest China

Understanding precipitation variations from various aspects is important for the assessment of drought risk and the utilization of water resources. The precipitation concentration index (PCI) and the concentration index (CI) were used to investigate/quantify the heterogeneity of the monthly and daily rainfall in Qinghai province that is part of northwestern China, respectively. The precipitation concentration in Qinghai shows a significant irregularity of the monthly rainfall distribution and highly homogeneous distribution of the daily rainfall. It is found that PCI and CI show negative trends at most stations. Meanwhile, the spatial and temporal variation of nine dry spell (DS) indices are analyzed. From the spatial perspective, drought in the northwestern area is much severer than that in other areas of Qinghai. According to the results of temporal analysis by using the Mann–Kendall test, the number of very long DSs, maximum length of DS, mean length of DSs, and the total dry days of extreme DS all decrease. All these results verify that the warm dry climatic pattern in Qinghai can be changed into the warm wet climatic pattern.     

U-Pb dating of early Mesozoic granodioritic intrusions in southeastern Hunan Province, South China and its petrogenetic implications

The NE-trended Mesozoic granodioritic intrusions are spatially and temporally associated with the copper multi-metal mineralization in southeastern Hunan Province, South China. U-Pb dating result of single-grained zircons of four samples respectively from Shuikoushan, Baoshan, western Tongshanling and eastern Tongshanling intrusions reveals that their crystallization age spans a range from 172 Ma to 181 Ma, which also represents the oldest age of the regional copper multi-metal mineralization. Some of the zircon grains give an upper intercept age of about 1753 Ma and ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb apparent age of (1752 ± 4) Ma, implying the involvement of the pre-Cambrian metamorphic (possible Middle Proterozoic) basement in their genesis. The presence of such a kind of zircon grains in these granodiorites indicates either that the parental magmas were assimilated by basement rocks during magma ascent or that lower/middle crustal rocks were one of the important components during the melting process.     

Ecological evolution across the Permian/Triassic boundary at the Kangjiaping Section in Cili County,Hunan Province,China

The stratigraphic sequence of calcimicrobialite facies at the Permian-Triassic (P/Tr) boundary has well recorded the biotic and environmental transition across the end-Permian catastrophic events. The biostratigraphy, microfacies, carbon isotopes, and fossil records across the P/Tr boundary have been studied at the Kangjiaping Section in Cili County, Hunan Province. Three biostratigraphic zones, Palaeofusulina-Colaniella Zone, Hindeodus parvus Zone, and Isarcicella staeschei Zone, are identified. The excursion of δ¹³C_carb exhibits a sharp negative shift in the calcimicrobialite at the P/Tr boundary, which is roughly accordant with the abrupt bioclastic decline. In addition, five types of microfacies are recognized, including algal-foraminifer bioclastic limestone, algal-laminated calcimicrobial limestone, oolitic grainstone, vermiculate limestone, and intraclastic wackstone. The results indicate that the changeover of ecosystem from metazoan reef to calcimicrobialite in Cili is a classic case of marine ecological evolution during the Paleozoic-Mesozoic transition. Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40830212, 40621002, 40730209) and National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2006CB80640)     

Research on meteorological thresholds of drought and flood disaster: a case study in the Huai River Basin,China

Together with affected areas of crops from 1978 to 2008, the daily precipitation of 110 stations located in the Huai River Basin during 1959–2008 was used to study the critical conditions when drought and flood occur, based on which the quantitative relationship between the critical condition and the affected area of crops was further studied. Based on the research on the hazard-formative factor of precipitation and the damage degree of crops, the spatial-temporal characteristics of disasters were analyzed, the drought and flood disaster-causing threshold was determined, and the quantitative relationship between the disaster-causing threshold and affected area of crops was established. The results are as the follows: (1) During 1959–2008, extreme precipitation levels were high in the eastern and western part of the Huai River Basin and were low in its central part; the spatial distribution of the coefficient of variation (CV) differed greatly from average extreme precipitation: the series of most stations were located in the central basin, and especially there was a positive trend in Anhui and Henan Provinces. (2) The cumulative precipitation during the disaster period of each station was divided by its mean cumulative precipitation during the same period in 1959–2008 to obtain the disaster-causing threshold, which has shown a good effect on reflecting the actual grade and affected areas in disasters. (3) The relationship among disaster grade, disaster-causing threshold and damage area of crops was established; this threshold can be used as a tool for agricultural disaster assessment and early warning, and can effectively improve the ability to prevent and mitigate disaster in the Huai River Basin. (4) The disaster-causing threshold can be an important input parameter for hazard assessment; other underlying surface indicators can be good supplements for determining the threshold in hazard assessment.     

洪湖分蓄洪区洪水淹没风险动态识别与可能损失评估

全球气候变化和社会经济快速发展,使长江流域面临越来越严重的防洪压力．在长江流域开展洪水淹没风险识别与洪水损失评估工作,对于长江流域洪水风险管理具有重大意义．本项研究以洪湖分蓄洪区为案例,采用基于GIS栅格数据整合于Arcview3．x的二维水文-水动力学模型进行洪水淹没风险动态识别,并且根据土地利用分类及其单位面积价值,建立洪水淹没损失函数,进行洪水淹没动态损失评估,建立了东洪湖分蓄洪区洪水淹没动态损失数据库,为东洪湖分蓄洪区的合理利用提供定量科学依据．洪水淹没动态风险识别基于数字高程模型进行,采用修正的1998年夏季洪水水位-时间水文过程线对模型参数进行调整,并以地面糙率反映不同地表覆盖形态对洪水演进过程的影响．     

我国北方干湿演变规律及其与区域增暖的可能联系

用中国地区60个站的月平均气温和月降水资料,计算了我国北方地区地表水分收支、蒸发等水分过程.以此为基础,分析了三北地区（西北、东北和华北）地表水分的历史演变规律及其与气温变化的关系,特别分析了和区域增暖的关系.结果指出：在北方地区,地表水分有其显著的演变规律,不同地区其变化规律不同.而实际蒸发和气温的关系存在明显的阶段性,在1965年前与1965年后的相关关系是完全相反的.分析的结果还指出：当前北方地区的普遍增温是干旱化加剧的主要原因.     

An improved nonstationary model for flood frequency analysis and its implication for the Three Gorges Dam,China

This study proposes an improved nonstationary model for flood frequency analysis by investigating the relationship between flood peak and flood volume, using the Three Gorges Dam (TGD), China, for verification. First, the generalized additive model for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) is used as the prior distribution. Then, under Bayesian theory, the prior distribution is updated using the conditional distribution, which is derived from the copula function. The results show that the improvement of the proposed model is significant compared with the GAMLSS-based prior distribution. Meanwhile, selection of a suitable prior distribution has a significant effect on the results of the improvement. For applications to the TGD, the nonstationary model can obviously increase the engineering management benefits and reduce the perceived risks of large floods. This study provides guidance for the dynamic management of hydraulic engineering under nonstationary conditions.     

Bivariate frequency analysis of flood and extreme precipitation under changing environment: case study in catchments of the Loess Plateau,China

Floods have changed in a complex manner, triggered by the changing environment (i.e., intensified human activities and global warming). Hence, for better flood control and mitigation in the future, bivariate frequency analysis of flood and extreme precipitation events is of great necessity to be performed within the context of changing environment. Given this, in this paper, the Pettitt test and wavelet coherence transform analysis are used in combination to identify the period with transformed flood-generating mechanism. Subsequently, the primary and secondary return periods of annual maximum flood (AMF) discharge and extreme precipitation (Pr) during the identified period are derived based on the copula. Meanwhile, the conditional probability of occurring different flood discharge magnitudes under various extreme precipitation scenarios are estimated using the joint dependence structure between AMF and Pr. Moreover, Monte Carlo-based algorithm is performed to evaluate the uncertainties of the above copula-based analyses robustly. Two catchments located on the Loess plateau are selected as study regions, which are Weihe River Basin (WRB) and Jinghe River Basin (JRB). Results indicate that: (1) the 1994–2014 and 1981–2014 are identified as periods with transformed flood-generating mechanism in the WRB and JRB, respectively; (2) the primary and secondary return periods for AMF and Pr are examined. Furthermore, chance of occurring different AMF under varying Pr scenarios also be elucidated according to the joint distribution of AMF and Pr. Despite these, one thing to notice is that the associate uncertainties are considerable, thus greatly challenges measures of future flood mitigation. Results of this study offer technical reference for copula-based frequency analysis under changing environment at regional and global scales.     

Simulated runoff responses to land use in the middle and upstream reaches of Taoerhe River basin,Northeast China,in wet,average and dry years

Study on runoff variations and responses can lay a foundation for flood control, water allocation and integrated river basin management. This study applied the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model to simulate the effects of land use on annual and monthly runoff in the Middle and Upstream Reaches of Taoerhe River basin, Northeast China, under the wet, average and dry climate conditions through scenario analysis. The results showed that from the early 1970s to 2000, land use change with an increase in farmland (17.0%) and decreases in forest (10.6%), grassland (4.6%) and water body (3.1%) caused increases in annual and monthly runoff. This effect was more distinct in the wet season or in the wet year, suggesting that land use change from the early 1970s to 2000 may increase the flood potential in the wet season. Increases in precipitation and air temperature from the average to wet year led to annual and monthly (March and from June to December) runoff increases, while a decrease in precipitation and an increase in air temperature from the average to dry year induced decreases in annual and monthly (all months except March) runoff, and moreover, these effects were more remarkable in the wet season than those in the dry season. Due to the integrated effects of changing land use and climate conditions, the annual runoff increased (decreased) by 70.1 mm (25.2 mm) or 197.4% (71.0%) from the average to wet (dry) year. In conclusion, climate conditions, especially precipitation, played an important role in runoff variations while land use change was secondary over the study area, and furthermore, the effects of changes in land use and/or climate conditions on monthly runoff were larger in the wet season. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

陕西地震监测台网在汶川地震监测中的应用

介绍陕西地震监测台网及运行情况,总结分析该台网在四川汶川8.0级地震速报、震型判定、余震预测和地震烈度划分、抗震救灾等方面的作用,探讨了地震监测台网建设及防震减灾相关问题。     

Tin partition behavior and implications for the Furong tin ore formation associated with peralkaline intrusive granite in Hunan Province,China

Tin deposits are often closely associated with granitic intrusions. In this study, we analyzed tin partition coefficients between different fluids and melts(D_(Sn)~(aq:fl:=melt))as well as various crystals and melts D_(Sn)~(aq:fl:=melt)(D_(Sn)~(crystal=melt))from the Furong tin deposit associated with the Qitianling A-type granite. Our experimental results indicate that tin partition behavior is affected by the chemical compositions of fluids, melts, and minerals. Tin is prone to partitioning into the residual magma in fractional crystallization or other differential magmatic processes if the magma originated from crustal sources with high alkali content, high volatile content, and low oxygen fugacity. Highly evolved residual peralkaline granitic magma enriched in tin can lead to tin mineralization in a later stage. Furthermore, the volatiles F and Cl in the magma play important roles in tin partitioning behavior. Low F contents in the melt phase and high Cl content in the aqueous fluid phase are favorable factors for tin partitioning in the aqueous fluid phase. High Cl content in the aqueous fluid catalyzes water–rock interaction and leads to the extraction of tin from tinbearing minerals. All these findings support a hydrothermal origin for the tin deposits. In light of the geotectonic setting, petrochemical characteristics, and mineralizing physicochemical conditions of the Furong tin deposit, it is inferred that the ore-forming fluid of the Furong tin ore deposit could have derived from the Qitianling peralkaline intrusion.     

Flood risk assessment and mapping based on a modified multi-parameter flood hazard index model in the Guanzhong Urban Area,China

The aim of this study is to promote appropriate land development policies and to improve operations of flood risk in urban areas. This study first illustrated a multi-parameter flood hazard index (FHI) model for assessing potential flood risk areas in the Guanzhong Urban Area (GUA), a large-scale urban area in northwestern China. The FHI model consisted of the following seven parameters: rainfall intensity, flow accumulation, distance from the river network, elevation, land use, surface slope, and geology. The parameter weights were assigned using an analytical hierarchy process and the sum weight of the first three parameters accounted for 71.21% of the total weight and had significant influence on flooding. By combining with population factor, the FHI model was modified to estimate the flood control area in the GUA. The spatial distribution of the flood risk was obviously different in the flood hazard area and flood control area. The very low risk and medium risk area in the flood control area increased by 11.19% and reduced by 9.03% compared to flood hazard area, but there were no obvious differences in other levels of risk areas. The flood control assessment indicated that very high flood risk areas were principally concentrated along river banks (the Weihe River and its tributaries) and in the middle of the Guanzhong Plain. Land use and population distribution are related to flooding. Especially, forestland was located in 84.48% of the very low risk area, while low risk areas were mainly located in 91.49% of high population dispersion area.     

中国油气页岩分布与存储潜能和前景分析

基于当今化石油气能源的需求还在扩展,它的紧缺势态波及全球,而我国的确需要更多的页岩油气.为此,非常规油气能源,特别是页岩油气的勘探、开发和利用就必然地提到社会进步和经济发展的议程上,并得到世界各个国家的高度重视.因此,页岩油气现已成为我国能源界和科技界及政府部门的热门话题.在经过了一段时间的"热炒"和依据尚不充分的评估后,本文通过对中外有关资料的分析和讨论认为:1)必须在了解世界各国、特别是北美页岩油气赋存与开发的条件下,认识我国页岩的分布状态和页岩油气潜能;2)在理解其它国家页岩属性、页岩油气的前景和勘查及储存背景下,在我国较全面的进行页岩和页岩油气存储的勘探和对其进行要素匹配,并选择远景好的典型地区进行示范研究与探索;3)集理念与实践综合研究制定页岩油气在我国的发展方案和路线图.