Fuzzy probability on reliability study of nuclear power plant probabilistic safety assessment: A review

Fault tree analysis (FTA) is a graphical model which has been widely used as a deductive tool for nuclear power plant (NPP) probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). The conventional one assumes that basic events of fault trees always have precise failure probabilities or failure rates. However, in real-world applications, this assumption is still arguable. For example, there is a case where an extremely hazardous accident has never happened or occurs infrequently. Therefore, reasonable historical failure data are unavailable or insufficient to be used for statistically estimating the reliability characteristics of their components. To deal with this problem, fuzzy probability approaches have been proposed and implemented. However, those existing approaches still have limitations, such as lack of fuzzy gate representations and incapability to generate probabilities greater than 1.0E-3. Therefore, a review on the current implementations of fuzzy probabilities in the NPP PSA is necessary. This study has categorized two types of fuzzy probability approaches, i.e. fuzzy based FTA and fuzzy hybrid FTA. This study also confirms that the fuzzy based FTA should be used when the uncertainties are the main focus of the FTA. Meanwhile, the fuzzy hybrid FTA should be used when the reliability of basic events of fault trees can only be expressed by qualitative linguistic terms rather than numerical values.     

非能动先进压水堆核电厂SGTR事故概率安全评价

蒸汽发生器传热管破裂(Steam Generator Tube Rupture,SGTR)事故是核电厂的重要事故之一,并具有其自身的特点。该事故的研究和评价对核电站安全具有较大意义。选取典型非能动先进压水堆核电厂AP1000的SGTR事故进行一级概率安全评价(Probabilistic Safety Assessment,PSA),采用事件树分析方法得到电厂事件发生后系统、设备和人员不同响应所产生的事故序列,然后建立相关系统的故障树模型进行可靠性分析。借助Risk Spectrum软件,计算SGTR事故导致AP1000核电厂的堆芯损伤频率(Core Damage Probability,CDF),并进行堆芯损伤的最小割集分析及重要度和敏感性分析。通过一系列分析得到导致堆芯损伤的重要基本事件,从而找到系统存在的薄弱环节。     

Success criteria analysis in support of probabilistic risk assessment for nuclear power plants: application on SGTR accident

Success criteria analysis (SCA) bridges the gap between deterministic and probabilistic approaches for risk assessment of complex systems.To develop a risk model,SCA evaluates systems behaviour in response to postulated accidents using deterministic approach to provide required information for the probabilistic model.A systematic framework is proposed in this article for extracting the front line systems success criteria.In this regard,available approaches are critically reviewed and technical challenges are discussed.Application of the proposed methodology is demonstrated on a typical Westinghouse-type nuclear power plant.Steam generator tube rupture is selected as the postulated accident.The methodology is comprehensive and general;therefore,it can be implemented on the other types of plants and complex systems.     

Success criteria analysis in support of probabilistic risk assessment for nuclear power plants: application on SGTR accident

Success criteria analysis (SCA) bridges the gap between deterministic and probabilistic approaches for risk assessment of complex systems.To develop a risk model,SCA evaluates systems behaviour in response to postulated accidents using deterministic approach to provide required information for the probabilistic model.A systematic framework is proposed in this article for extracting the front line systems success criteria.In this regard,available approaches are critically reviewed and technical challenges are discussed.Application of the proposed methodology is demonstrated on a typical Westinghouse-type nuclear power plant.Steam generator tube rupture is selected as the postulated accident.The methodology is comprehensive and general;therefore,it can be implemented on the other types of plants and complex systems.     

RiskA计算引擎在核电站概率安全评价中的应用

研究分析了R＆R Workstation平台的计算引擎配置问题,实现了该平台下调用FDS团队自主研发的RiskA计算引擎.基于上述工作,采用真实核电站的概率安全评价模型,对RiskA计算引擎进行了正确性校核,并与CQUANT引擎进行了计算速度比较.测试表明正确实现了在PRAQUANT下对于RiskA计算引擎调用,Ris...     

Quantitative assessment of severe accident management strategies in a nuclear power plant

Nuclear power plants in Korea are preparing improvement countermeasures for severe accidents including mobile gas turbine generators, passive autocatalytic recombiners, containment-filtered venting systems, and external injection using portable pumps. However, these improvement countermeasures have only been determined by expert judgment, and detailed validation of their effects has not been performed. In this paper, the quantitative safety impact of these improvement countermeasures was evaluated for the Westinghouse 3-loop pressurized water reactor. Our evaluation of four improvement countermeasures using the at-power internal event probabilistic safety assessment models revealed that all containment failure modes have positive effects, except for the containment isolation failure and the containment bypass. Therefore, post-Fukushima action plans for coping with a severe accident in Korea have been appropriately evaluated and established.     

AP1000核电建设安全标准化管理

2002年国家颁布实施了《中华人民共和国安全生产法》,出台了一系列的方针和政策,加大了安全生产监管力度。安全标准化是继安全评价、安全生产许可证制度之后,在安全监管方面采取的一项重大举措,也是一项治本之策。安全标准化工作是一项战略性、长期性、基础性的工作,是实现企业安全科学管理,提高企业本质安全的基本途径。海阳AP1000核电,其模块化、平行法施工及开顶法施工颠覆了传统先土建后安装的建造的理念,缩短建设周期,与此同时特大型模块运输、吊装,立体交叉施工显著增加,对安全管理提出了更高的要求。本文结合海阳AP1000核电工程特点及安全管理难点,提出AP1000核电安全标准化管理的思路和措施,对AP1000核电建设安全管理工作有借鉴意义。     

Seismic probabilistic safety analysis of unit 1 of the Loviisa nuclear power plant

The seismic probabilistic safety assessment consists of five phases. In the seismic hazard analysis the seismicity of the plant site is quantified. In the second phase, the structural response of plant buildings is evaluated. On the basis of structural response, the seismic fragilities of selected plant components are developed. In the following phase, the plant logic in the form of fault trees and event trees is established. In the last step, quantification of the core damage risk on the basis of the above information is carried out. For the median value of the annual core damage frequency, a value of 4.4 × 10⁻⁷ was determined.     

Summary of NET plant probabilistic safety approach and results by means of ENEA fusion plant safety assessment (EFPSA)

This paper summarizes the probabilistic safety assessment for the main accident scenarios associated with failures originating in the In-Vessel Plant Area of the Next European Torus (NET). The assessment refers to the Basic Performance Phase of operation under normal running and conditioning. For the corresponding accident sequences, the values of the annual expected frequency and the seriousness of consequences expressed as early dose to the Most Exposed Individual (MEI) of the public are listed.     

Evaluation of response factors for seismic probabilistic safety assessment of nuclear power plants

This paper presents a method for evaluating “response factors” of components in nuclear power plants for use in a seismic probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). The response factor here is a measure of conservatism included in response calculations in seismic design analysis of components and is defined as a ratio of conservative design response to actual response. This method has the following characteristic features: (1) the components are classified into several groups based on the differences in their location and in the vibration models used in design response analyses; (2) the response factors are decomposed into subfactors corresponding to the stages of the seismic response analyses in the design practices; (3) the response factors for components are calculated as products of subfactors; (4) the subfactors are expressed either as a single value or as a function of parameters that influence the response of components.This paper describes the outline of this method and results from an application to a sample problem in which response factors were quantified for examples of components selected from the groups.     

Important factors affecting fault detection coverage in probabilistic safety assessment of digital instrumentation and control systems

As digital instrumentation and control (I&C) systems are gradually introduced into nuclear power plants (NPPs), concerns about the I&C systems’ reliability and safety are growing. Fault detection coverage is one of the most critical factors in the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of digital I&C systems. To correctly estimate the fault detection coverage, it is first necessary to identify important factors affecting it. From experimental results found in the literature and the authors’ experience in fault injection experiments on digital systems, four system-related factors and four fault-related factors are identified as important factors affecting the fault detection coverage. A fault injection experiment is performed to demonstrate the dependency of fault detection coverage on some of the identified important factors. The implications of the experimental results on the estimation of fault detection coverage for the PSA of digital I&C systems are also explained. The set of four system-related factors and four fault-related factors is expected to provide a framework for systematically comparing and analyzing various fault injection experiments and the resultant estimations on fault detection coverage of digital I&C systems in NPPs.     

Development and assessment of fire-related risk unavailability matrices to support the application of the maintenance rule in a PWR nuclear power plant

Two methods are presented which serve to incorporate the fire-related risk into the current practices in nuclear power plants with respect to the assessment of configurations. The development of these methods is restricted to the compulsory use of fire probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) models. The first method is a fire protection systems and key safety functions unavailability matrix which is developed to identify structures, systems, and components significant for fire-related risk. The second method is a fire zones and key safety functions (KSFs) fire risk matrix which is useful to identify fire zones which are candidates for risk management actions. Specific selection and quantification methodologies have been developed to obtain the matrices. The Monte Carlo method has been used to assess the uncertainty of the unavailability matrix. The analysis shows that the uncertainty is sufficiently bounded. The significant fire-related risk is localized in six KSF representative components and one fire protection system which should be included in the maintenance rule. The unavailability of fire protection systems does not significantly affect the risk. The fire risk matrix identifies the fire zones that contribute the most to the fire-related risk. These zones belong to the control building and electric penetrations building.     

一、二级概率安全评价技术研究及其在300MW核电厂二期工程设计中的应用

通过引进及自行研制,建立了一、二、三级概率安全评价(PSA)分析程序;结合300MW核电厂二期工程(C-2)设计,对一、二级PSA技术进行研究及应用——包括始发事件分析、事件树分析、故障树分析、相关性分析、人员可靠性分析、数据分析、事件序列定量化、电厂损伤状态分析、事故进程和安全壳响应分析、源项分析、大量放射性早期释放频率(LERF)的计算和分析、不确定性分析、重要度和敏感性分析以及设计过程中的应用等。建造了C-2一、二级PSA模型,通过在C-2设计过程中基于PSA的发现进行了一些重要设计改进,如安注泵和喷淋泵的小流量回流管上隔离阀的设计改进;化容系统的往复式上充泵的设计改进;重要厂用水系统的设计改进等,得到C-2功率运行内部事件的堆芯损伤频率(CDF)为7.25×10-6/堆年,LERF定量化结果为3.24×10-7/堆年。     

Two viewpoints for software failures and their relation in probabilistic safety assessment of digital instrumentation and control systems

As the use of digital systems in nuclear power plants increases, the reliability of the software becomes one of the important issues in probabilistic safety assessment. In this paper, two viewpoints for a software failure during the operation of a digital system or a statistical software test are identified, and the relation between them is provided. In conventional software reliability analysis, a failure is mainly viewed with respect to the system operation. A new viewpoint with respect to the system input is suggested. The failure probability density functions for the two viewpoints are defined, and the relation between the two failure probability density functions is derived. Each failure probability density function can be derived from the other failure probability density function by applying the derived relation between the two failure probability density functions. The usefulness of the derived relation is demonstrated by applying it to the failure data obtained from the software testing of a real system. The two viewpoints and their relation, as identified in this paper, are expected to help us extend our understanding of the reliability of safety-critical software.     

核电厂的安全文化

以DNMC(大亚湾核电站)管理干部安全文化培训教材为基础,简要地说明核电厂的安全、设计、管理、组织文化、安全文化这一系列概念的基本内容和相互之间的关系。重点解释了安全文化体系的构成要素;政策层、管理层和员工个人三层承诺的基本要求;并对典型的安全文化事项,如透明的文化、习惯性违规等进行了分析和论断。人三层承诺的基本要求;并对典型的安全文化事项,如透明的文化、习惯性违规等进行了分析和论断。     

Application of the leak-before-break concept in nuclear power plant safety analysis

NIKIÉT. Translated from Atomnaya Énergiya, Vol. 75, No. 6, pp. 426-430, December, 1993.     

Thermal-hydraulic calculations using MARS code applied to low power and shutdown probabilistic safety assessment in a PWR

The methods developed for full-power probabilistic safety assessment, including thermal-hydraulic methods, have been widely applied to low power and shutdown conditions. Experience from current low power and shutdown probabilistic safety assessments, however, indicates that the thermal-hydraulic methods developed for full-power probabilistic safety assessments are not always reliable when applied to low power and shutdown conditions and consequently may yield misleading and inaccurate risk insights. To increase the usefulness of the low power and shutdown risk insights, the current methods and tools used for thermal-hydraulic calculations should be examined to ascertain whether they function effectively for low power and shutdown conditions. In this study, a platform for relatively detailed thermal-hydraulic calculations applied to low power and shutdown conditions in a pressurized water reactor was developed based on the best estimate thermal-hydraulic analysis code, MARS2.1. To confirm the applicability of the MARS platform to low power and shutdown conditions, many thermal-hydraulic analyses were performed for the selected topic, i.e. the loss of shutdown cooling events for various plant operating states at the Korean standard nuclear power plant. The platform developed in this study can deal effectively with low power and shutdown conditions, as well as assist the accident sequence analysis in low power and shutdown probabilistic safety assessments by providing fundamental data. Consequently, the resulting analyses may yield more realistic and accurate low power and shutdown risk insights.     

核动力设备可靠性数据的处理方法研究

核动力个别设备(如电动泵)在其运行历史上无失效记录或仅有很少的失效记录,仅用小样本数据反映设备可靠性参数的总体分布有所欠缺。本文提出"两步走"方法,即对核动力设备数据进行处理时参考同堆型核电站的通用数据库,将属于无信息先验的核动力设备数据处理转化为有信息先验的处理。应用Jeffreys先验模型对核动力电动泵进行贝叶斯推断,通过图检验评价模型复现观察数据的能力,结果表明模型可以完全复现观察数据具有良好的预计能力,经分析建议将第4组数据剔除后再对电动泵失效数据进行贝叶斯推断。     

Quantum evolutionary algorithm applied to transient identification of a nuclear power plant

When transients occur during the operation of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs), their identification is critically important for both operational and safety reasons. Thus, plant operators have to identify an event based upon the evaluation of several distinct process variables, which might difficult operators’ actions and decisions. Transient identification systems have been proposed in order to support the analysis with the aim of achieving successful or effective courses of action, as well as to reduce the time interval for a decision and corrective actions. This article presents a system for accident and transient identification in a pressurized water reactor NPP whose optimization step of the classification algorithm is based upon the paradigm of the Quantum Computing. In this case, the optimization metaheuristic Quantum Inspired Evolutionary Algorithm (QEA) was implemented and tested. The system is able to identify anomalous events related to transients of the time series of process variables related to postulated accidents. The results of the classification of transients/accidents are compared with other results in the literature.     

Risk assessment on hazards for decommissioning safety of a nuclear facility

A decommissioning plan should be followed by a qualitative and quantitative safety assessment of it. The safety assessment of a decommissioning plan is applied to identify the potential (radiological and non-radiological) hazards and risks. Radiological and non-radiological hazards arise during decommissioning activities. The non-radiological or industrial hazards to which workers are subjected during a decommissioning and dismantling process may be greater than those experienced during an operational lifetime of a facility. Workers need to be protected by eliminating or reducing the radiological and non-radiological hazards that may arise during routine decommissioning activities and as well as during accidents. The risk assessment method was developed by using risk matrix and fuzzy inference logic, on the basis of the radiological and non-radiological hazards for a decommissioning safety of a nuclear facility. Fuzzy inference of radiological and non-radiological hazards performs a mapping from radiological and non-radiological hazards to risk matrix. Defuzzification of radiological and non-radiological hazards is the conversion of risk matrix and priorities to the maximum criterion method and the mean criterion method. In the end, a composite risk assessment methodology, to rank the risk level on radiological and non-radiological hazards of the decommissioning tasks and to prioritize on the risk level of the decommissioning tasks, by simultaneously combining radiological and non-radiological hazards, was developed.