GCM STUDIES ON ANTHROPOGENIC CLIMATE CHANGE IN CHINA*

Impacts of human activities on climate change as simulated by the general circulation models (GCMs)in China for the recent ten years have been summarized and reviewed in this paper.The researches show that it might be getting warmer over China due to the greenhouse effects.The atmospheric circulation and precipitation also might be changed due to the greenhouse effects.The assessments and evaluations of the models over the globe and China have also been presented in this paper.     

CLIMATOLOGICAL CALCULATION OF SURFACE LATENT HEAT OVER CHINA*

In the context of measurements from all the thermal balance stations over China,two methods of calculating surface latent heat for its climatic features are proposed through experiments with a range of schemes,one being the empirical type based on the relationship between ground latent heat and vapor pressure,and the other upon the Bowen ratio parameterization.Either of them has its unique merits so that they can be considered in specific case to have higher accuracy.On this basis,investigation is done of the feature of geographic distribution and annual variability of the heat across the country.     

A CONVECTIVE RAINFALL ESTIMATE TECHNIQUE DEVELOPED BY NSMC OF CHINA*

In order to reveal the relation between strong convective cloud characteristics and rainfall rate,over 20000 hourly raingauge data from 333 weather stations and the corresponding 4000 convective cloud infrared images of GMS-4 during the period of 1992-1994 in Henan,Hubei and Sichuan Provinces were studied.The results show that cloud top temperature,temperature gradient,the growth of cloud,overshooting top and the normalized distance between a cloud covering pixels and the cluster center have certain relations to cloud precipitation.These relations can vary with different geographical regions.Based on the study above,a convective rainfall estimation technique was developed by the scientists in National Satellite Meteorological Center of China.Its average error is 30% for daily precipitation with a correlation coefficient of 0.69.     

THE CALCULATION AND ANALYSIS OF SLOPE NET RADIATION IN CHINA*

By using the climatological calculating method for each component of slope surface net radiation proposed by the authors,calculations and analyses are done of the distribution features of slope net radiation in China with emphasis on the discussion of variations of slope net radiation in typical stations and sites with slope direction,slope,latitude and season.The distribution features of net radiation on the north and south slopes are,for the first time,mapped and discussed,revealing the great difference on the national basis,and thus acquiringa new interesting result that the negative-value area of winter net radiation on the north slope(20°)can reach Yunnan and Guizhou Provinces and middle and upper reaches of the Changjiang River.     

REMOTE SENSING OF THE SEASONAL VARIATION IN COLUMN ABUNDANCE OF ATMOSPHERIC CH4*

Infrared solar spectra on clear days were measured automatically by an infrared solar spectrometer(ISS) with 0.4 cm^-1 resolution developed by us.A line-by line(LBL) computation method was used to calculate theoretical atmospheric absorption.In the wavelength range of 3.410-3.438 μm.the absorption is mainly due to atmospheric methane and water vapor.Columnatmospheric methane was retrieved from the recorded infrared solar spectra.The seasonal variation of column atmospheric methane in Hefei has been obtained from the measuremental data of nearly 18 months since the April of 1997.and found that it is similar to that of background data.The instruments.principles of measurement and some of results were introduced,and the results are also discussed briefly in the paper.     

DECADAL VARIABILITY OF THE ANTARCTIC OSCILLATION*

This paper summarizes the long term and decadal time scale fluctuations of atmospheric circulation in the Southern(Hemisphere) middle and high latitudes.The long time series of Antarctic Oscillation Indices(AOIs) were established for January.April.July and October based on the historical sea level pressure maps and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis surface pressure data set.It was found that the AOI of January had upward trend at a rate of 1.17 hPa/100 a.and July haddownward trend at a rate of -1.49 hPa/100 a since 1871.The method of wavelet analysis wasapplied to detect the low frequency characteristics of AOIs,and it is clear that there are decadalvariations in the time scale of about 20-30 years in all 4 indices.Since the averaged value of 4months could explain most variance of annual AOI.thus it is reasonable using the mean AOI of January,April,July and October to represent the annual AOI.The value of annual AOI was much lower in periods of about 1894-1901.1910-1935,and was much higher in periods of about 1880-1893,1936-1945.The positive anomalies were remarkable since 1980s.Power spectra of modeled AOIs from Hadley Center Control Integration(HCCI) were compared with the observations,it is found that the interannual time scale frequencies were more significant than decadal frequencies.But.there also had the possibility for generating weak deeadal fluctuations in some special months and years by Hasselmann mechanism.     

SURFACE IMBALANCE ENERGY CALCULATED AND ANALYZED WITH THE DATA OF EBEX-2000*

Mainly.three methods have been developed to calculate turbulence heat flux.They are eddy covariance method,Bowen ratio/energy balance method and aerodynamic method.In this paper, all the three methods have been used to calculate sensible heat flux,latent heat flux and imbalance energy near the surface with the experiment data of EBEX-2000.Then comparisons of the three methods and some possible explanations of the surface imbalance energy are given.     

WAVE-FLOW INTERACTIONS IN THE ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY VARIATION OF BLOCKING PATTERN*

Through a simple review of low-frequency variation of blocking pattern and diagnoses of observational data and combining some experience in forecast practice,we put forward some thought about the mechanism of formation and maintenance of the blocking flow pattern from the synoptic/climatological point of view,It is emphasized that eastward moving and deepening of troughs in the upstream of the blocking high,the SST anomalies and topography effect are the main factors of impelling the variation of the blocking high.During the maintenance of Ural blocking high wave-flow interactions are studied through disposition of baroclinic trough(transient wave)and the blocking flow.This study will offer a primary basis for the further theoretical study on the formation mechanism of the blocking high.     

APPLICATION OF THE VARIATIONAL METHOD OF TOVS DATA OVER THE TIBETAN PLATEAU IN IMPROVEMENT OF THE INITIAL FIELD OF NUMERICAL MODELS*

In this paper,TOVS satellite data are used through variational method on the data-sparse plateau area.Diagnoses are carried out to find a way to solve the large error problem of model initial field.It is put forward that TOVS retrieval data can be used to improve the initial field of numerical prediction model on Tibetan Plateau area.Through variational method,TOVS data are processed and the liability of the initial information on the plateau is improved.Diagnostic results confirm further that the application of TOVS retrieval data can improve our capability to describe the dynamic system features on the plateau and the objectivity of related initial information such as the distribution of water vapor channel and stratification stability.     

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF THE SURFACE RADIATION FIELD IN A HILLY COUNTRY*

Based on the simulations of the topographic parameters(mean orientation,slope,and terrain screen angle)in a hilly land,discussion is made term by term of the technique for modelling of all components is done in the surface radiation balance over a rugged terrain,thus presenting a computer model for each component.In terms of experimental data,the components is calculated for the mesh grids of 100m×100 m each over 3.0×3.5 km² in the Zhaogongling,southern Dabie Mountains and a map is prepared showing the distribution of these components for January and July.Results show that the hilly-land surface radiation field matches the terrain element field quite well,which reveals the determining function of the latter,with orientational effect dominant in winter and terrain screen effect most significant in summer.The simulation technique presented is in principle applicable to the calculation for a radiation field in any kind of topography,thus providing a means for further exploration of hilly-land climate resource.     

VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF SECOND-MOMENT TURBULENT VARIABLES*

Two kinds of observational data,fluctuation and mean profile measurements,from a 325 m meteorological tower in Beijing,China,are used to evaluate local scales of velocity and temperature for higher heights by flux-gradient mean profiles and eddy-correlation techniques.A comparison of these methods each other was made in terms of vertical turbulence fluxes for momentum and beat at the same heigbt.The vertical profiles of non-dimensional second moments.such as vertical turbulent fluxes of momentum and heat.velocity and temperature standard deviations,were derived by local similarity theory.The local similarity relations expressed that the vertical distributions of non-dimensional second moment variables were found to be functions of z/Λ and z/h in the stable boundary layer and the function of z/Z_i for the convective boundary layer,where A the local Monin Obukhov(M-O) length. h the height of stable boundary layer and Z_i the height of mixed-layer.These relations are shown to agree well with the observational data.     

CHARACTERISTICS OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN CHANGJIANG DELTA AND ITS POSSIBLE MECHANISM*

Characteristics of climate change in the Changjiang Delta were analyzed based on the annual mean meteorological data since 1961,including air temperature,maximum and minimum air temperature,precipitation,sunshine duration and visibility at 48 stations in that area(southern Jiangsu and northern Zhejiang),and its adjacent areas(northern Jiangsu,eastern Anhui and southern Zhejiang),together with the environmental data.The results indicate that it is getting warmer in the Changjiang Delta and cooler in adjacent areas,thus the Changjiang Delta becomes a big heat island,containing many little heat islands consisting of central cities,in which Shanghai City is the strongest heat island.The intensity of heat islands enhances as economic development goes up.From the year 1978.the beginning year of reform and opening policy,to the year 1997,the intensity of big heat island of Changjiang Delta has increased 0.5℃ and Shanghai heat island increased 0.8℃.However.since 1978 the constituents of SO₂,NO_x and TSP(total suspended particles)in the atmosphere,no matter whether in the Changjiang Delta or in the adjacent areas,have all increased,but pH values of precipitation decreased.In the meantime,both sunshine duration and visibility are also decreased,indicating that there exists a mechanism for climate cooling in these areas.Our analyses show that the mechanism for climate warming in the Changjiang Delta may be associated with heating increase caused by,economic development and increasing energy consumption.It is estimated that up to 1997 the intensity of warming caused by this mechanism in the Changjiang Delta has reached 0.8-0.9℃,about 4-4.5 times as large as the mean values before 1978.Since then,the increase rate has become 0. 035℃/a for the Changjiang Delta.It has reached 1.3℃ for Shanghai in 1997,about 12-13 times as large as the mean values before 1978.This is a rough estimation of increasing energy consumption rate caused by economic development.     

ABRUPT CHANGE IN ELEMENTS AROUND 1998 SCS SUMMER MONSOON ESTABLISHMENT WITH ANALYSIS OF ITS CHARACTERISTIC PROCESS*

The latest dataset from the SCS(South China Sea) Monsoon Experiment is used to investigate the features of abrupt change in some meteorological elements before,during and after the summer monsoon's establishment in 1998 and explore its onset characteristic process.We have arrived at a preliminary conclusion that the 1998 Asian summer monsoon is established first in the SCS as early as May 23,which is representative of the earliest indicator of the conversion from a winter into a summer monsoon situation in Asia;the continued retreat eastward of the western Pacific subtropical high from the SCS region has direct effect on the SCS summer monsoon establishment because the withdrawal favors the release of unstable energy,responsible for the sudden onset of the monsoon.Our tentative investigation indicates that the eastward extension of the westerly and rainfall band from the equatorial Indian Ocean into the Indo-China Peninsula and the southward spreading of an active South-China stationary front,acting as the interaction between mid and low latitude systems,are likely to be the characteristic events contributing to the subtropical high's eastward retreating and the summer monsoon's onset over the SCS.     

A PRELIMINARY STUDY OF SNOW MASS VARIATIONS IN CHINA OVER THE PAST 30 YEARS*

Daily snow data for 2300 climate stations covering the period from 1951 through 1980 have been used to monitor and diagnose secular variations,year-to-year fluctuations,and the spatial characteristics of snow variation trends in China.An examination of time series reveals that there is a strong teleconnction to ENSO,to major volcanic eruptions,as well as to the CO₂-induced warming.The country-wide snow mass variations are positively correlated with global mean temperature,increasing during the current warming period and decreasing during the recent cooling period prior to the mid 1960s.A synchronous relationship exists between El Nino/Southern Oscillation and snowy winter in China.The year-to-year snow fluctuations seem to be generally out of phase with volcanic activity.The anomaly map shows that snow mass increased in high altitudes and moist regions,while it decreased in arid lowland and the southern boundary zone during the warming period.The potential CO₂-induced changes in snow mass will further aggravate the regional differentiation between high mountains and lowlands,between moist and arid regions.The number of snow cover days will decrease in the northern lowlands,and snowfall will increase in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau,high mountains,and the lower reaches of the Changjiang(Yangtze) River.     

DISTRIBUTION OF AEROSOL EXTINCTION IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE BY MICRO-PULSE LIDAR OBSERVATION*

The profiles of aerosol extinction coefficients are investigated by micro-pulse lidar(MPL) combined with the meteorological data in the lower troposphere at Meteorological Research Institute(MRI).Japan.Larger extinction values of aerosol are demonstrated in the nocturnal stable air layer with larger Richardson number,and light wind velocities are favorable for aerosol concentrating in the planetary boundary layer(PBL).But aerosol extinction coefficients show larger values over the altitudes of 2.0 to 5.0km where correspond to higher relative humidity(RH).The tops of PBL identified by the aerosol extinction profiles almost agree with ones by radiosonde data.The diurnal variations of aerosol extinction profiles are clearly displayed,intensive aerosol layers usually are formed over the period of mid-morning to 1400 Loeal Time(LT).then elapse in the cloudless late afternoon and nighttime.Thermal eonvection or turbulent transport from the surfaee probably dominates these temporal and spatial changes of aerosol distribution.     

ANALYSIS OF THE ATMOSPHERIC AEROSOL OPTICAL DEPTH OVER CHINA IN 1980s*

This paper retrieves the yearly and monthly mean 0.75μm aerosol optical depth(AOD) of 41 A-class solar radiation stations over China from 1979 to 1990,and analyzes the spatial and temporal distribution of AOD over China mainland.The data employed are daily direct solar radiation and sunshine duration,as well as the TOMS version-7 ozone observation data in the same time.The results indicate that the Siehuan Basin is the largest center of yearly mean AOD over China.and the other two larger centers lie in Wuhan City and the South Xinjiang Basin,separately.AOD values are also relatively larger in the middle-and-lower reaches area of Changjiang River.Shandong Peninsula and coastal area of Guangdong Province:while in Yunnan Province,coastal area of Fujian Province.most parts of Northwest and Northeast China,AOD values are relatively smaller.The distribution of AOD varies with different months.In most parts of China.the maximum of AOD occurs in spring season;but the minimum varies in different regions,From 1979 to 1990.in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau,West Siehuan Basin,North Guizhou Province.most areas of the middle-and-lower reaches of Changjiang River,Shandong Peninsula and west part of South Xinjiang Basin.AOD shows an increasing trend.But in Northeast China,most part of Northwest China,Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau,western Guangxi Region and the coastal areas of East China,AOD shows decreasing tendency.Generally,the seasonal variation characteristics of AOD in China can be classified into four typical models,i.e.,mono-modal types A and B,bimodal and Poly-modal.     

STUDY ON INTER-DECADAL AND INTER-ANNUAL VARIABILITY OF SST IN THE TROPICAL OCEANS*

Based on rotational empirical orthogonal function(REOF),max-entropy and Mexico-hat wavelet transform techniques,monthly SSTA of the tropical Pacific,Atlantic and Indian Oceans(32.5°S-32. 5°N) is investigated.It is shown that the inter-decadal variability and inter-annual variability take on global scale,and there exist their own significance areas.Moreover,through the total time series,the intensity of the variabilities is time-variable.And in fact,both the variabilities are usually coexistent.In significance areas of each of the variabilities,another variability is sometimes quite strong.     

北半球两大地形下游冬季环流的动力分析——Ⅰ.环流、遥相关和定常波的联系

位势场中槽脊的分布、遥相关型的形态和准定常波的传播路径是1月份500hPa月平均高度场的重要特征。通过资料分析和数值试验,本文证明此三者之间是彼此关联的整体,它们与青藏高原和落基山的强迫作用有关。东亚大槽和北美大槽的强度在中高纬度上存在显著的负相关。这种负相关和槽前急流强度的年际变化导致北美和东亚存在相似的相关型分布,准定常波在两大地形下游传播的不同则导致两区域相关波链形态的明显差异。     

THE EFFECT OF LAND-SEA CONTRAST ON INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY OF THE ASIAN MONSOON*

Values of the net radiative heating(QRT)at the top of atmosphere(TOA) are derived from the satellite-observed outgoing long wave radiation(OLR)and the TOA short wave net irradiance (SHT) for the region of the Tibetan Plateau and surrounding areas(40°S-40°N,0-180°E)and the period of months from January 1979 to December 1988.The anomalous QRT(QRTA)in relation to the interannual variability of Asian monsoon is discussed.QRTA for the earth-atmosphere system in the domain may be linked to the thermal contrasts between continents and oceans and between the plateau and surrounding free atmosphere.