Adolescent receptivity to tobacco marketing by racial/ethnic groups in California

BACKGROUND: Previous research has examined tobacco marketing receptivity across racial/ethnic groups but none has done so across the various levels of the smoking uptake continuum. Identifying adolescent groups that may be more or less receptive to industry marketing, particularly across the levels of smoking uptake, provides important information that may be useful in focusing efforts to eliminate smoking disparities. METHODS: Data came from 5857 adolescents (66.6% response rate) from the 2002 California Tobacco Survey and were analyzed in 2006. An index measure of receptivity to tobacco marketing was based on advertisement recall and willingness to use/own a tobacco promotional item. Respondents were classified along a smoking uptake continuum as committed never smokers, susceptible never smokers, or any smoking. Logistic regression models controlling for possible confounding variables were fit to test for the association between receptivity and race/ethnicity across levels of smoking uptake. RESULTS: African Americans (odds ratio [OR]=0.77; 95% confidence interval [CI]=0.61-0.96) and Asian/Pacific Islanders (OR=0.80; 95% CI=0.66-0.97) were less likely than non-Hispanic white adolescents to be receptive to tobacco marketing after controlling for possible confounders. For susceptible never smokers, African Americans (OR =0.67; 95% CI=0.47-0.93) and Asian/Pacific Islanders (OR=0.72; 95% CI=0.54-0.95) were less likely than non-Hispanic white adolescents to be receptive. CONCLUSIONS: There may be features of the African-American and Asian/Pacific Islander cultures that are protective against receptivity to tobacco marketing, even among those who are susceptible never smokers. Prevention strategies emphasizing such features for adolescents of other races/ethnicities may be beneficial in reducing smoking disparities.     

A randomized intervention of smoking for adolescents in urban Wuhan, China

BACKGROUND: Tobacco use is a significant public health problem in China. Culturally specific smoking prevention programs are needed for Chinese adolescents. This study evaluated a school-based smoking prevention curriculum with a social normative approach developed in the United States for adolescents in urban Wuhan, China. METHODS: As a randomized trial, the intervention was implemented in 1998 with 7th grade students in seven schools with seven matched control schools. Multilevel logistic regression models were used to compare ever and recent (past-month) smoking behaviors for the control and program conditions. RESULTS: At the 1-year follow-up, smoking had increased more rapidly in the control schools than in the program schools. The odds of baseline nonsmokers initiating smoking did not differ between the program and control groups (OR=1.08 with 95% CI=0.71, 1.64). The program prevented progression to recent smoking among boys who were baseline ever smokers. Among boys who were recent smokers at baseline, the prevention program significantly reduced risk of remaining recent smokers at follow-up (OR=0.45 with 95% CI=0.23, 0.88). CONCLUSIONS: This social normative smoking prevention curriculum did not demonstrate a significant primary prevention effect but showed potential for secondary prevention. Culturally specific smoking prevention programs are needed for Chinese adolescents.     

Racial/ethnic differences in cigarette smoking initiation and progression to daily smoking: a multilevel analysis

OBJECTIVES: We sought to identify individual and contextual predictors of adolescent smoking initiation and progression to daily smoking by race/ethnicity. METHODS: We used data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health to estimate the effects of individual (adolescent, family, peer) and contextual (school and state) factors on smoking onset among nonsmokers (n = 5374) and progression to daily smoking among smokers (n = 4474) with multilevel regression models. RESULTS: Individual factors were more important predictors of smoking behaviors than were contextual factors. Predictors of smoking behaviors were mostly common across racial/ethnic groups. CONCLUSIONS: The few identified racial/ethnic differences in predictors of smoking behavior suggest that universal prevention and intervention efforts could reach most adolescents regardless of race/ethnicity. With 2 exceptions, important contextual factors remain to be identified.     

Smoking prevention for ethnically diverse adolescents: 2-year outcomes of a multicultural, school-based smoking prevention curriculum in Southern California

BACKGROUND: Effective school-based curricula are needed to prevent smoking among ethnically diverse adolescents. This study evaluated a multicultural smoking prevention curriculum in ethnically diverse Southern California middle schools. METHODS: Students in 24 middle schools (N = 3157 sixth graders) received the multicultural curriculum, a similar curriculum without references to cultural issues, or a control condition. Odds ratios for experimentation with smoking over a 2-year period were calculated. RESULTS: The multicultural program was associated with a lower risk of smoking between sixth and eighth grade, relative to the control group. Program effects varied according to the ethnic composition of the schools. In schools with predominantly Hispanic populations, the multicultural curriculum was more effective than the control, but the standard curriculum was not. In schools with predominantly Asian or multicultural populations, the standard curriculum was more effective than the control, but the multicultural curriculum was not. Analyses stratified by ethnicity within the schools revealed that the multicultural curriculum was effective among Hispanic students within predominantly Hispanic schools, but not among Hispanic students within predominantly Asian/multicultural schools. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking prevention for adolescents in culturally diverse school contexts is a challenge. In this study, a multicultural curriculum was most effective among Hispanic students in predominantly Hispanic schools. Further research is needed to determine the best ways to prevent smoking in predominantly Asian and multicultural schools.     

Latinos report less use of pharmaceutical aids when trying to quit smoking

BACKGROUND: Latino smokers are more likely than white non-Latino smokers to attempt cessation, but less likely to receive cessation advice from physicians or to use nicotine replacement therapy (NRT). Proposed underlying causes have included lighter smoking, lower financial status, and less healthcare access. This study assessed these factors as possible explanations for disparate rates of smoking-cessation support. METHODS: Data were analyzed from a random, population-level telephone survey of Colorado adults that interviewed 10,945 white non-Latino respondents and 1004 Latino respondents. For the current analysis, main outcome measures were receipt of physician advice to quit smoking, use of NRT, and use of bupropion or other anti-depressant for smoking cessation. RESULTS: Latino smokers reported higher prevalence of quit attempts (71.5% v 61.6%, p <0.01) but less physician advice to quit smoking (46.4% v 56.2%, p <0.05) and less use of NRT or an anti-depressant for cessation (10.6% v 24.8%, p <0.0001). Adjusted for potentially confounding factors, the odds ratio (OR) for less Latino use of cessation medications was substantial and significant (full model OR=0.31; 95% confidence interval, 0.17 to 0.57). The adjusted OR for physician cessation advice was not significant. CONCLUSIONS: Population-level differences in health status, smoking level, financial status, or healthcare access do not explain why Latino smokers less often use proven pharmaceutical aids to increase cessation. Further research is needed to understand these disparities, and greater effort is needed to deliver cessation support to Latino smokers seeking to quit.     

Emotional intelligence and smoking risk factors in adolescents: interactions on smoking intentions.

PURPOSE: To examine interactions between emotional intelligence (EI) and smoking risk factors on smoking intentions in adolescents. METHODS: EI ios defined as the ability to: accurately perceive, appraise, and express emotion; access and/or generate feelings in facilitating thought; understand emotion and emotional knowledge; and regulate emotions. EI of 416 6th graders (53% girls) from middle schools in the Los Angeles area (mean age = 11.3 years; 32% Latino, 29% Asian/Pacific Islander, 13% white, 19% Multiethnic, 6% Other) was assessed with an abbreviated version of the Multifactor Emotional Intelligence Scale, Adolescent Version (MEIS). This was a competence-based measure assessing an individual's ability to perceive, understand, and manage emotion. Logistic regression models were fit to test interactions between EI and ever trying cigarettes, hostility, and perceived ability to refuse a cigarette from someone just met, on intentions to smoke in the next year. RESULTS: High EI adolescents were more likely to intend to smoke in the next year if they had previously experimented with smoking. Those with low EI were more likely to intend to smoke if their perceived ability to refuse a cigarette offer from a person they just met was low or hostility level was high. CONCLUSIONS: These preliminary results indicate that EI interacts with risk factors to reduce smoking intentions, and contributes evidence to a link between EI and smoking in adolescents.     

成都市青少年吸烟现况调查

目的：了解成都市青少年目前的吸烟现状，制订相应的干预策略。方法：在成都市随机抽取了7所中学的14个班级和2所大学的某些系学生参与问卷调查。结果：本次共调查学生1029人，在中学生中32．9％的被调查者承认曾经尝试吸烟，其中职高学生无论是男性和女性吸烟率均高于同年龄段的高中学生，大学66.6％的被调查者承认曾经尝试吸烟；中学生的平均开始吸烟年龄（中位数）为13．25岁，其中男性13.35岁，女性12.9岁。大学生的平均吸烟年龄（中位数）为13.63岁，其中男性13.28岁，女性15．83岁。结论：成都市青少年吸烟在全国处于较高水平，平均开始吸烟年龄也较低，表明成都市应更加关注青少年控烟工作，采取相应的干预控制，加强健康教育，让青少年树立正确的健康观念。     

Smoking among adolescents in China: an analysis based upon the meanings of smoking theory

PURPOSE: This study utilized the Meanings of Behavior theory to examine whether meanings of smoking differ among adolescents in China who were never smokers, ever smokers, and past-30-day smokers. The Meanings of Behavior theory argues that affect takes precedence over cognitive constructs in motivating behavior This study also examined whether the associations among meanings of smoking and smoking behavior vary by age and gender DESIGN: This study was a cross-sectional study using survey data. SETTING: Middle and high schools in seven cities in China. SUBJECTS: A random sample of 4724 students comprised this study. MEASURE: A self-administered questionnaire asked about smoking behavior and incorporated the meanings of smoking scale. RESULTS: Overall prevalence rates of ever smokers and past-30-day smokers in this sample were 24.3% and 9.0%. Smoking was much more prevalent in boys than in girls. Students in the 11th grade were more likely than those in the 7th grade to have tried smoking at some time and to have smoked within the past 30 days. Odds ratios confirmed that meanings of smoking were significantly associated with smoking behaviors. CONCLUSIONS: Meanings of smoking are associated with smoking behavior among Chinese adolescents in that smoking may connote autonomy, control, or social relatedness. Prevention programs in China require new strategies to incorporate meanings of smoking in order to meet adolescent psychological needs for autonomy, competence, and social connections.     

Predictors of smoking prevalence among New York Latino youth.

BACKGROUND. We examined prevalence rates and risk factors for smoking among Latino adolescents, using a multiethnic sample of sixth- and seventh-grade students (n = 3129) in 47 New York City public and parochial schools. METHODS. The students completed questionnaires; self-reported smoking data were collected by means of the "bogus pipeline" technique. The largest group of Latino students (43%) was Puerto Rican; 20% were of Dominican background, 7% were Colombian, and 7% were Ecuadorian. "Current smoking" was defined as smoking at least once per month. RESULTS. A series of logistic regression analyses indicated that peer influence was the strongest predictor of smoking. Family influence was important as well. CONCLUSIONS. The results are discussed in terms of their implications for prevention.     

Social influences, and attitudes and beliefs associated with smoking among border Latino youth

BACKGROUND: Adolescent smoking rates have declined among all ethnic groups since the late 1990s. However, despite the recent declines and intervention efforts, today smoking remains a serious problem among youth, with a quarter of adolescents being current smokers by the time they complete 12th grade. This problem is particularly prevalent among Latino youth, who have among the highest rates of lifetime and past-30-day use. The purpose of this study was to examine the association between psychosocial factors and the smoking behavior of Latino youth living along the Mexico-US border. METHODS: A convenient sample of 2471 middle and high school Latino students was surveyed in fall 2000. Logistic regression analysis was used to examine the association between study risk factors and youth smoking behavior. RESULTS: The strongest predictor of lifetime and past-30-day smoking was peer influence; however, the strength of the association was greater with recent use. There were also differences in the influence of family and attitudes and beliefs between the 2 groups. CONCLUSIONS: These differences need to be taken into consideration to guide development of tailored prevention and control interventions aimed at this specific group. These efforts should address social influences to smoke, particularly those from peers; promote changes in attitudes and beliefs toward smoking; increase understanding of the addictive nature of nicotine; and provide development of skills young people need to resist social and environmental pressures to smoke. Strict control and enforcement measures are needed to completely eliminate the sale of cigarettes to minors.     

Recency of immigration, substance use, and sexual behavior among Massachusetts adolescents

OBJECTIVES: This study examined the relationships between recency of immigration, substance use, and sexual behavior. METHODS: Surveys were conducted with 2635 Massachusetts 8th and 10th graders that allowed comparisons of health behaviors and risk and protective factors among students living in the United States "always," more than 6 years, or 6 years or less. RESULTS: Compared with lifetime residents, immigrant youths (particularly those living in the United States 6 years or less) reported lower lifetime and recent alcohol and marijuana use (P < .001); sexual intercourse rates were similar across groups. However, recent immigrants were most likely to report peer pressures to engage in, and less parental support to avoid, risk behaviors (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: A window of opportunity exists to provide primary prevention programs in schools to immigrant youths that may reduce adolescent health risk behaviors.     

Meanings of smoking among adolescents in Chiang Mai, Thailand

The Meanings of Smoking Index-2 (MSI-2) was administered to 2516 Thai adolescents in an urban, suburban, rural, and vocational high school. Factor analysis identified six meanings of smoking factor domains: coping, social image, stimulation, weight, independence, and difficulty refusing smoking. Logistic regression analyses determined that the strongest positive association with smoking behavior and ever smoking was the coping domain, and coping was also positively associated with susceptibility to smoking. The individual meaning item which most differentiated current smokers from nonsmokers was "keeps from being bored" and the dimension of stimulation (gives more energy, helps to concentrate, helps to study, gives something to do) was positively associated with current smoking. Findings suggest that meanings of smoking is important because it can provide guidance to health educators and other health professionals in tailoring smoking prevention and cessation interventions by identifying and targeting meanings that are salient within specific adolescent populations.     

Epidemiology and correlates of daily smoking and nicotine dependence among young adults in the United States

OBJECTIVES: We describe the epidemiology of smoking behaviors in a national young adult sample and identify common and unique demographic, social, and psychological correlates of daily smoking and lifetime and current nicotine dependence by race/ethnicity. METHODS: Data are from the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent Health, wave III. Dependence was measured by the Revised Fagerstr?m Test for Nicotine Dependence. Logistic regressions were estimated. RESULTS: Hispanic ethnicity, low education, parental and peer smoking, novelty seeking, early age of smoking onset, and pleasurable initial smoking experiences are significantly correlated with daily smoking and lifetime nicotine dependence. Depressive symptoms are uniquely associated with lifetime and current dependence. Few factors are highly associated with current dependence. Initial sensitivity to smoking has a significantly greater impact on daily smoking than on dependence. Correlates of smoking behaviors are mostly common across racial/ethnic groups, although parental and peer smoking are significant for Whites and Hispanics but not for African Americans. CONCLUSIONS: There are more common than unique correlates of each smoking stage and across racial/ethnic groups. Primary prevention and interventions addressing the factors tested could be uniform for most chronic smokers irrespective of dependence status and race/ethnicity.     

A comprehensive smoking cessation program for the San Francisco Bay Area Latino community: Programa Latino Para Dejar de Fumar

Background. Prevalence of cigarette smoking among Latinos compared to whites is higher among men (30.9% versus 27.9%), but lower among women (16.3% versus 23.5%). More acculturated Latina women, however, smoke more. Compared to other smokers, Latinos report consuming about half the average number of cigarettes per day. Up to a quarter of Latino smokers of less than 10 cigarettes per day may be underreporting consumption. The association between smoking and depression has also been found in Latinos. Program Goals. The Programa Latino Para Dejar de Fumar (Programa) goals are: 1) to evaluate attitudinal, behavioral, and cultural differences between Latino and white smokers; 2) to integrate these findings into a comprehensive, culturally-appropriate smoking cessation intervention; and 3) to implement the intervention in a defined community in order to decrease cigarette smoking prevalence, increase behaviors that may lead smokers to quit, and promote a nonsmoking environment. Program Components. Heightened concern about health effects of smoking, the importance of social smoking, and the influence of the family on behavior are integrated in the Programa components: 1) the promotion of a full-color, Spanish-language, self-help, smoking cessation guide (Guia), distributed at no charge; 2) an anti-smoking, Spanish-language, electronic media campaign; 3) community involvement; 4) quit smoking contests; 5) smoking cessation, individual, telephone consultations (consultas); and 6) collaboration with health care personnel. Results. Effectiveness of the Programa is being evaluated by annual, cross-sectional, random digit dialing telephone surveys compared to two baseline surveys. After 19 months of intervention, the proportion who had heard of the Programa increased from 18.5% to 44.0%, and over one third of less acculturated smokers had the Guia. Future directions will emphasize smoking prevention among youth, prevention of relapse among quitters, and depression prevention.     

Predictors of the transition to regular smoking during adolescence and young adulthood.

PURPOSE: To identify predictors of the transition from experimentation to regular smoking in middle adolescence, late adolescence, and young adulthood. METHODS: California and Oregon students completed self-report surveys assessing the following potential predictors of the transition to regular smoking from grades 8 to 10 (n = 2,496), grades 10 to 12 (n = 2,149), and grade 12 to age 23 years (n = 1,534): demographic characteristics; smoking-related attitudes, behaviors and environment; other problem behaviors; academic orientation; parental bonding; and mental health. Huberized regression techniques, which adjust for weighting and clustering of observations, were used to determine the independent associations of the predictor variables on subsequent smoking status. RESULTS: Risk factors for the transition to regular smoking during middle adolescence included being white, prosmoking attitudes, friend smoking, weak academic orientation, and less parental support. During late adolescence, being African-American was protective, whereas risk factors included prosmoking attitudes, drinking, non-intact nuclear family, and less parental support. Risk factors in young adulthood included younger age and prosmoking attitudes. CONCLUSIONS: Results point to several smoking-related attitudes, social influences, and behaviors that prevention efforts may target to curb the escalation of smoking.     

Cigarettes and Cinema: Does Parental Restriction of R-Rated Movie Viewing Reduce Adolescent Smoking Susceptibility?

PurposeTo examine the relationship between exposure to pro-smoking messages in media and susceptibility to smoking adoption among middle school students. The hypothesis that parental restriction of R-rated movie viewing is associated with lower adolescent smoking susceptibility was tested.MethodsA sample of 1687 6th-, 7th-, and 8th-grade students from four Wisconsin middle schools were surveyed about their use of cigarettes, exposure to smoking in media, their views of smoking, and peer smoking behaviors.ResultsAn index of smoking susceptibility was created using measures of cigarette use and future intention to smoke. A zero-order correlation for parental restriction of R-rated movie viewing and smoking susceptibility showed a strong association (r = −.36, p < .001). A hierarchical logistic regression yielded odds ratios (ORs) for being susceptible to or having tried smoking for three levels of parental R-rated movie restriction. Results show that compared to full restriction, respondents with partial or no restriction were more likely to be susceptible to smoking (partial restriction: OR = 2.1, 95% CI = 1.5–2.8; no restriction: OR = 3.3, 95% CI = 2.3–4.6), when controlling for demographic factors, and family and friend smoking. Analyses using a measure of smoking prevalence as the dependent variable yielded similar results (partial restriction: OR = 1.5, 95% CI = 1.0–2.2; no restriction: OR = 2.5, 95% CI = 1.7–3.7).ConclusionsParental restriction of R-rated movie viewing is associated with both lower adolescent smoking susceptibility and lower smoking rates.     

R-rated film viewing and adolescent smoking

OBJECTIVES: As smoking is very common in R-rated films, we sought to determine if viewing R-rated films is associated with adolescent smoking. METHODS: Three annual cross-sectional surveys conducted of 88,505 Year 10 students of largely European, Maori, Asian or Pacific Islander ethnicity in secondary schools in New Zealand between 2002 and 2004. Outcomes of interest were: intention to smoke among never smokers; past experimentation with smoking among current non-smokers; current smoking status; and current frequency of smoking. RESULTS: Dose-response relationships were observed between the frequency of viewing R-rated films and all outcome measures controlling for age, gender, ethnicity, peer smoking, parental smoking, socioeconomic status, pocket money and household smoking rules. Compared to never viewing R-rated films, viewing at least weekly nearly tripled the relative risk (2.81; 95% confidence interval 2.57, 3.09) of never smokers being susceptible to smoking, and more than doubled the risk of both past experimentation (2.28; 95% CI 2.12, 2.45) and smoking>/=monthly (2.31; 95% CI 2.10, 2.54). Each of these risks was seen across all ethnic groups. CONCLUSIONS: Our results extend the association that has been demonstrated between viewing R-rated films and current smoking in American youth by demonstrating the same association in youth of different ethnic and cultural backgrounds in New Zealand.     

School and Community Predictors of Smoking: A Longitudinal Study of Canadian High Schools

Objectives. We identified the most effective mix of school-based policies, programs, and regional environments associated with low school smoking rates in a cohort of Canadian high schools over time.Methods. We collected a comprehensive set of student, school, and community data from a national cohort of 51 high schools in 2004 and 2007. Hierarchical linear modeling was used to predict school and community characteristics associated with school smoking prevalence.Results. Between 2004 and 2007, smoking prevalence decreased from 13.3% to 10.7% in cohort schools. Predictors of lower school smoking prevalence included both school characteristics related to prevention programming and community characteristics, including higher cigarette prices, a greater proportion of immigrants, higher education levels, and lower median household income.Conclusions. Effective approaches to reduce adolescent smoking will require interventions that focus on multiple factors. In particular, prevention programming and high pricing for cigarettes sold near schools may contribute to lower school smoking rates, and these factors are amenable to change. A sustained focus on smoking prevention is needed to maintain low levels of adolescent smoking.Adolescent tobacco use remains a major public health priority to reduce the disease burden of smoking-related illness. In addition to the health consequences of tobacco use that typically begin in adolescence, the total financial costs of smoking in the United States are estimated at $167.8 billion annually1 and in Canada, $17 billion annually.2 A significant challenge in addressing the problem is that youth smoking behaviors occur in many complex environments, including the home, school, community, and wider policy context. An ecological model provides a framework for understanding the complex influence and interactions of the broader environment on individual health behaviors.3 Focusing on broader environmental approaches to adolescent tobacco control may serve to decrease opportunities for youths to obtain tobacco and foster social norms that discourage youths from smoking. To inform the development and implementation of more effective approaches to adolescent tobacco control, researchers need to identify the multiple influences of school, neighborhood, and community characteristics on adolescent smoking.4–6School-based approaches to addressing adolescent tobacco use have been the focus of much research and public health policy. Despite this, findings from studies examining the effectiveness of school-based policies7–21 and prevention programs22–24 on student smoking remain mixed. Previous research has shown that smoking rates vary across schools, irrespective of individual factors, suggesting a school effect on smoking rates.8 School-level determinants have been found to explain between 4% and 40% of the variation in smoking across middle and high schools.7,25,26 Moreover, factors in a school’s community, including the implementation of strategies such as educational programs, policies, and municipal regulations are likely to influence adolescent smoking. A study examining the impact of broader tobacco control policies (e.g., clean air policies, cigarette taxes) over a 15-year period found an association with lower adolescent smoking.27 Ecological models have suggested that to better understand the influence of school contextual variables on smoking rates, the relationships among school-based tobacco control policies, programs, and other characteristics of the broader school and community environment need to be explored simultaneously. An integrated approach such as this would help determine the most effective mix of policy and program factors that support low school smoking rates.Most smoking outcomes have been assessed at the individual level. Although the purpose of school-based tobacco control policies and programs is to influence individual smoking behavior, they are also designed to modify the school setting by enhancing nonsmoking norms. Therefore, investigating and understanding smoking outcomes at the school level is important. Studying school-level smoking behavior will help to identify the relative importance of various factors in students’ school environments that have an impact on school-level smoking prevalence. For the relatively immobile high school student, local areas are very important for accessing goods and services, including those detrimental to health.28 As such, school- and community area–targeted programs can be informed to increase capacity for change.We designed the Project Impact study to examine the relationship between adolescent smoking and the broader school and community environment. Previous findings from this study have suggested that significant differences exist in tobacco retailer variables between schools with high and low smoking rates,6,25 that smoking rates vary across schools, and that policy characteristics can explain some of this variation.6,14,29 Evidence has also shown that community characteristics are related to smoking rates.6 However, evidence is lacking regarding how multiple factors, across school and community environments, work in combination and over time to influence adolescent smoking at the school level.The purpose of this study was to follow a cohort of Canadian schools over time to determine the influence of school-based tobacco control policies, programs, the areas surrounding schools (neighborhoods), and regional environments (municipality) on school smoking prevalence. We sought to identify factors within the schools and their communities that are associated with school smoking rates. Findings will be useful to policymakers in informing decision making that advances tobacco control.     

Early-Emerging Nicotine Dependence Has Lasting and Time-Varying Effects on Adolescent Smoking Behavior

Novice and light adolescent smokers can develop symptoms of nicotine dependence, which predicts smoking behavior several years into the future. However, little is known about how the association between these early - emerging symptoms and later smoker behaviors may change across time from early adolescence into young adulthood. Data were drawn from a 7-year longitudinal study of experimental (<100 cigarettes/lifetime; N?=?594) and light (100+ cigarettes/lifetime, but ≤5 cigarettes/day; N?=?152) adolescent smokers. Time-varying effect models were used to examine the relationship between baseline nicotine dependence (assessed at age 15?±?2 years) and future smoking frequency through age 24, after controlling for concurrent smoking heaviness. Baseline smoking status, race, and sex were examined as potential moderators of this relationship. Nicotine dependence symptoms assessed at approximately age 15 significantly predicted smoking frequency through age 24, over and above concurrent smoking heaviness, though it showed declining trends at older ages. Predictive validity was weaker among experimenters at young ages (<16), but stronger at older ages (20–23), relative to light smokers. Additionally, nicotine dependence was a stronger predictor of smoking frequency for white smokers around baseline (ages 14.5–16), relative to nonwhite smokers. Nicotine dependence assessed in mid-adolescence predicts smoking frequency well into early adulthood, over and above concurrent smoking heaviness, especially among novice smokers and nonwhite smokers. Early-emerging nicotine dependence is a promising marker for screening and interventions aimed at preventing smoking progression.